Tag: 2010 House Open Seat Watch

• CA-45: After years of letting California’s 45th district (the most Democratic-leaning district in California still represented by a Republican, where Obama won 52-47) lay fallow, the Democrats actually seem to have a top-tier (or close to it) challenger lined up. Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet just started a campaign committee for a face-off against Mary Bono Mack. The openly gay Pougnet has been mayor of the city of 40,000 since 2007.

• KY-Sen: Dr. Dan may get some company in the primary. 39-year-old Attorney General Jack Conway has announced “there’s a good chance” he’ll run for Senate in 2010. Subtexts in other quotes suggest that he’s been negotiating with Rep. Ben Chandler and Auditor Crit Luallen, who may be stepping aside for him.

• CO-Gov: Now this seems unexpected. Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis, after butting heads with more conservative elements in the state GOP and studiously avoiding the 2008 and 2010 senate races in Colorado, has chosen a much more uphill battle: he’s running for governor against Democratic incumbent Bill Ritter. He may still face a primary battle against up-and-coming state senator Josh Penry (who used to be McInnis’s press secretary).

• PA-Gov, PA-06: Jim Gerlach acknowledged in an interview that people have been soliciting him to run against Arlen Specter in the 2010 senate primary (which would turn it into moderate/moderate/fiscal wingnut/religious wingnut chaos). However, he’s still charging full speed ahead on his gubernatorial bid instead.

• MI-12: Here’s one of the least likely places you could imagine for a heated primary, but it may happen. State senator Mickey Switalski will challenge 14-term incumbent Sander Levin in this reliably Dem (65-33 for Obama) district in the Detroit suburbs. (To give you an idea how long Levin has been around, he’s Carl Levin’s older brother.) This doesn’t seem to be an ideological challenge as much as Switalski is term-limited out of the state senate in 2010 and needs somewhere else to go.

• CA-10: San Francisco city attorney analyst (and former political editor for the San Francisco Examiner) Adriel Hampton has announced his candidacy for the open seat being vacated by Ellen Tauscher. What may be most memorable about this is that his may be the first ever candidacy announcement made by Twitter; he faces long odds against state senator Mark DeSaulnier (who won’t announce until Tauscher’s resignation is official).

• New Dems: One other musical chairs item left in the wake of Tauscher’s resignation is who takes over as the chair of the New Dems. The New Dems have five vice-chairs, but it looks like the hyper-ambitious Joe Crowley has enough support nailed down to take command bloodlessly. The CW is wondering whether this will complicate Crowley’s efforts to join House leadership (he lost a caucus vice-chair bid in 2006), but my question is what the heck is a New Dem doing in NY-07 (which went for Obama 79-20)?

• FL-20: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz told the Miami Herald on Saturday that she successfully battled breast cancer over the past year. We wish her good health as she continues her recovery. (D)

• Maps: For those of you who enjoy seeing maps breaking things down by congressional districts, here’s a new one from real estate site hotpads.com: which CDs have the highest foreclosure rates.

From the WaPo:

Word is that Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), chair of the House Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee on strategic forces and a staunch superdelegate for presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton, is in line for a top post at the State Department, most likely for the undersecretary for arms control and nonproliferation slot.

It had been widely reported that highly regarded arms control guru Robert Einhorn, who had been assistant secretary for arms control in the Clinton administration, was penciled in to move up to that post, but we’re hearing he has turned it down for personal reasons. And Secretary of State Clinton did, after all, win the California primary.

Well, I don’t really see what Hillary’s California primary win has to do with any of this, but that’s neither here nor there. Assuming Tauscher is tapped for this gig, we’ll have another California special election on our hands (Hilda Solis’ vacancy in CA-32 being the other). While Tauscher used to hold a competitive district in the ’90s, her CD was redrawn after the most recent census to include more Democratic turf — on top of that, the 10th CD has taken a sharp turn in the Democratic direction over the last pair of Presidential elections. According to SSP’s Prez-by-CD analysis, Obama carried the 10th district by a 65-33 margin, a significant jump from the 59-40 Kerry win here four years earlier (and the 55-41 performance by Gore in 2000).

If a special election happens here, Team Blue will be in pretty good shape. Anyone have any ideas as to who may run?

(Hat-tip: mikeel)

UPDATE: Roll Call says that it’s a done deal:

Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) will be tapped for a top State Department post, sources with knowledge of the pending nomination said.

Yet another GOPer looks to bail out of the misery that is life in the House minority:

Rep. J. Gresham Barrett made it official Wednesday: He will be a candidate for South Carolina governor in 2010. The four-term Republican announced his candidacy electronically. He sent an e-mail to supporters linking to a video on his new campaign site, Gresham Barrett for Governor.

Barrett is the first of what is likely to be a crowded field of Republicans vying for the nomination.

Current Gov. Mark Sanford , a Republican, is barred from running for a third term and the open seat has attracted attention from a number of state-level officials on both sides of the aisle.

Nonetheless, a whole passel of Republicans are eager to take Barrett’s place:

But should Barrett attempt to succeed outgoing Gov. Mark Sanford (R) and retire from the House in two years, a legendary name around South Carolina and in Washington, D.C., is expected to surge to the front of the line: Strom Thurmond Jr.

Thurmond, a lawyer in the region and son of the late Senator, undoubtedly would have universal name recognition with conservative voters and is widely known to have expressed interest in Barrett’s seat in the past. The late statesman’s son, a former federal prosecutor, did not return a message left at his Aiken, S.C., law firm.

Behind Thurmond, state Reps. Rex Rice and Michael Thompson also are considered possible Republican primary frontrunners in the district, which was previously represented by now-Sen. Lindsey Graham (R). Rice, a wealthy local businessman, also could devote significant resources to his campaign and has the requisite ties with the local business community. …

State Sen. Greg Ryberg, who sank millions of dollars of his own money on losing a state treasurer’s race two years ago, also is considered a 2010 GOP ballot possibility in Barrett’s district. State Sen. Tom Alexander (R) is rumored to covet higher office as well.

The district, though, is brutal territory for Dems. Until 1994, this seat was actually held by Democrat Butler Derrick, who apparently had the good sense to get out of the way of Hurricane Gingrich. The presidential numbers tell a painful tale: after going for Bush 34-66 in 2004, the needle barely moved to 35-64 in 2008. Given that SC as a whole moved eight points in our direction, standing still qualifies as falling behind. Sorry, open seat fans.

The Oklahoman:

U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin answered the question most delegates to today’s Oklahoma County Republican Convention wanted to know: She is running for governor in 2010.

When introducing Fallin, Pam Pollard, outgoing chairman of the Oklahoma County Republican Party, asked the two-term congresswoman whether she was forgoing a third term to seek the governor’s office.

“I’ve had to make some pretty tough decisions on behalf of our nation the last couple of years, but when it comes to making decisions about the future of Oklahoma and the leadership of Oklahoma and the governor of Oklahoma, my answer is yes,” Fallin said.

We have a decent Dem bench in Oklahoma, but the problem is that the two biggest guns, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson, are both seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nod. How rough could this one get?

On the House side of the equation, open seat fans might find Mary Fallin’s vacant seat of mild interest. While most of the rest of Oklahoma swung hard to the right last year (especially Dan Boren’s traditionally Democratic 2nd CD), the Oklahoma City-based 5th District actually lurched in the Democratic direction. While John Kerry got pounded by a 64-36 margin here in 2004, McCain’s margin tightened to 59-41 over Obama while holding Bush-like margins nearly everywhere else in the state.

Crisitunity:

As a wise man once pointed out, they don’t smoke marijuana in Muskogee. They don’t take their trips on LSD. They don’t burn their draft cards in the town square, because they like living right and being free.

Apparently the welcome mat’s out for bong-toting peacenik acid freaks in Oklahoma City now, though.

So who might run here for Team Blue? Might Andrew Rice be interested in a race like this?

(H/T: trowaman)

The Hill:

Rep. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) will announce his candidacy for Senate on Thursday, sources close to Blunt have confirmed.

Blunt has been expected to enter the 2010 race for weeks. His candidacy sets up a potential clash of the families in Missouri, as Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has entered the race on the Democratic side.

If Blunt, the father of unpopular ex-Gov. Matt Blunt, is the best the GOP can come up with here, then I like our chances with Carnahan. But like any statewide Missouri race in recent history, I would expect this to be closely-fought, and the early polling agrees.

However, primaries are still a distinct possibility here — state Treasurer Sarah Steelman is still contemplating a run on the Republican side, and 1st CD Rep. Lacy Clay is still “weighing his options” for the Democratic nomination.

Open seat fans shouldn’t get too excited about Blunt’s 7th CD — Obama lost the district by a 63-35 margin last November, only a slight improvement from John Kerry’s 67-32 beatdown four years earlier.

Callin’ out around the world, are you ready for a brand new beat?

Rep. Steve King (R) is looking at a bid for governor in 2010, according to multiple local news sources. On a weekly public TV show taping this week, King said he was not sure whether he would challenge Gov. Chet Culver (D) but was looking at his options.

“There’s a duty for me, I think. I’ve made no decisions,” King said on the program, according to the Associated Press. “It would be constructive for me at this point to say that the most important job right now is to bring together and reunify the Republican Party in this state.”

Summer’s here and the time is right for dancin’ in the streets!

Fun fact: John McCain carried King’s 5th CD by a 54-44 margin last November.

State Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson is now making it known that he will indeed challenge Rep. Allen Boyd in the 2010 Democratic primary:

Lawson, an insurance agent who has represented Tallahassee in the Legislature since 1982, said today he intends next year to take on Congressman Allen Boyd, a Democrat from Monticello.

The primary will be bruising, with the nation’s economic crisis front and center. […]

Lawson has come out of the gate swinging, accusing Boyd of forgetting his struggling constituents.

Boyd voted in favor of a $700 billion taxpayer rescue of the nation’s troubled financial industry that was first proposed by former President George W. Bush. Boyd joined most Republicans in Congress in voting against a more than $800 billion economic stimulus package being pushed hard by the new administration of President Barack Obama.

Congress is still negotiating a final package.

“He’s putting Wall Street ahead of Main Street, and there’s something wrong with that,” Lawson said. “Most of that district is rural and the people need help.”

Before you get too excited, though, let’s not forget that Lawson “almost” endorsed Charlie Crist in 2006 — not exactly the behavior of a progressive firebrand.

(Hat-tip: The Briefing Room)

Monster news:

State Senate Democratic Leader Al Lawson will challenge incumbent U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd in 2010, sources close to Lawson confirmed this morning.

Boyd, elected to Congress twelve years ago, is a leader of the “Blue Dog Coalition,” a group of conservative Democrats. The Panhandle farmer also served in the state House.

Lawson is a Tallahassee insurance agent who is approaching three decades as a state lawmaker. He was first elected to the Florida House in 1982. He will be term-limited out of office in 2010.

This has been a long time coming, as Boyd’s strong conservative tendencies (even by Blue Dog standards) overcompensated for his moderate, R+2.2 district. Boyd, as you may remember, was the lone Democratic defector on George Bush’s plan to privatize social security in the aftermath of the 2004 elections.

Without knowing too much about Lawson (a quick profile is available here), he could make a strong challenge for the primary electorate’s African-American votes; the 2nd CD is only 22% black, but that share would be much higher in a Democratic primary.

If nothing else, Lawson’s challenge could force Boyd to tack leftward for once in his life.

(Hat-tip: The Hotline)

Excellent news:

Pennsylvania Rep. Jim Gerlach , a politically moderate Republican who has narrowly won four House elections in a district that is trending Democratic, took a formal step Thursday toward a campaign for governor in 2010.

Gerlach, whose 6th District takes in suburbs and exurbs west of Philadelphia, announced that he had filed papers with Pennsylvania election officials to establish an “exploratory committee” that would allow him to raise and spend campaign funds as he weighs whether to become an official candidate.

Exploratory committees almost always are precursors to full-fledged campaigns, though Gerlach said Thursday’s announcement was not tantamount to a declaration of candidacy. He issued a written statement saying he would take the next few months to “speak with political, business and community leaders, help our 2009 statewide judicial candidates, conduct polling and determine if there is a clear path to victory.”

“I suspect that by late spring we’ll know whether to formally move forward with a campaign for governor,” he added.

If Gerlach indeed bails, Democrats would stand an excellent chance at capturing this seat. Out of all the districts in the Philly burbs, Gerlach’s 6th CD took the most dramatic swing towards The Blue in 2008 according to a recent Swing State Project analysis of the raw numbers. After supporting Kerry by a tight 52-48 margin in 2004, the dam burst wide open last November, with Obama carrying the district by a full 17 points (58-41). As we’ve discussed recently, Democrats have a number of players on the local bench who could jump in once Jimmy jumps out.

As for Gerlach’s gubernatorial bid, I have a hard time seeing him winning a statewide primary, so it’s hard to see why he might pursue this option. Perhaps he’s just looking to cap off this stage of his political career with a bang, rather than end it with a humiliating loss to a Bob Roggio-type in 2010.

(Hat-tip: conspiracy)

Sorry, open seat fans:

U.S. Rep. Jo Bonner, R-Mobile, told the Press-Register today that he will not run for governor of Alabama in 2010, ending months of speculation over whether he would join a crowded field of candidates seeking to replace term-limited Gov. Bob Riley.

“After a lot of serious thought and consideration, as well as many heartfelt prayers, Janee and I have concluded that now is simply not the right time to launch a statewide campaign,” Bonner said.

Bonner nabbed a spot on the Appropriations Committee last year, which makes life in the minority a bit more palatable. And a few weeks ago, he earned some upgrades on his other assignments. In any event, this move scratches a name off of our open seat watch, but both the GOP and Dem gubernatorial fields are still up in the air.