Tag: 2010 House Open Seat Watch

A slight snag:

Democrats will have to wait until after the May 4 primary to officially pick their nominee to replace Sen. Evan Bayh.

Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker, who had said he wanted a candidate quickly, said Thursday that “the sooner rather than later has now become later.”

Parker had hoped to call a meeting of the Democratic Party’s state central committee’s 32 voting members as early as next week. But after party attorneys researched state law, they discovered they could not fill the ballot vacancy until after the primary.

That’s just as well for U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who said Thursday he needs more time to make a decision.

And it won’t be a problem for U.S. Rep. Baron Hill. Friends said he is interested in exploring a run for Senate, but he has been out of the country on a congressional mission.

The primary, as you are aware, is on May 4th — over ten weeks down the line. For state Democrats who wanted to coalesce quickly around Brad Ellsworth, that creates a bit of an awkward interim period, especially if more Democrats, like Hill, express their interest in the race. After a bit of uncertainty yesterday, Chris Cillizza reports that Ellsworth will indeed enter the race “shortly”. It’s also not yet clear how state Democrats will resolve the uncertainty over the replacement process for Ellsworth in the 8th CD. Will they attempt to withdraw his name from the primary ballot?

UPDATE: Ellsworth has made it official.

LATER UPDATE: Democratic state Rep. Trent Van Haaften has filed to run for Ellsworth’s House seat. Will any strong Republicans follow suit?

EVEN LATER UPDATE: It doesn’t look like the GOP has been able to sneak in a top-tier candidate under the wire in the 8th CD. The Hotline ID’d Gibson Co. Prosecutor Rob Kreig and state Treasurer Richard Mourdock as two GOP candidates considering last-minute bids, but the filing deadline closed at noon local time, and it doesn’t look like either of those guys pulled the trigger. The GOP appears stuck with physician Larry Bucschon — not the worst possible candidate, but far from their ideal choice.

From the Evansville Courier & Press:

U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth will run for Senate, and state Rep. Trent Van Haaften will seek his seat in Congress, multiple Democratic sources said Thursday morning. […]

The Indiana Democratic Party’s 32-member central committee will determine Bayh’s replacement. Anthony Long, the party’s 8th Congressional District chairman, said he expected a Ellsworth’s decision this morning. No official announcement has been made.

Meanwhile, Butch Morgan, the 2nd District chairman who also helms the St. Joseph’s County Democratic Party, said bumping Ellsworth and Van Haaften up is the scenario he envisions.

Other Democratic sources close to Ellsworth and Van Haaften would not speak on the record, but confirmed that the two are working out the logistics of the situation now.

Howey Politics Indiana, the crew that broke the story about Dan Coats’ re-entry into the political arena, is also reporting the same thing — with an announcement by Ellsworth apparently set to come down sometime later today.

There’s no question that Ellsworth out-classes his Republican opposition in this race. Dan Coats has been proven to be a pretty flawed candidate — one of the very few GOP candidates that the DSCC has actually been able to land serious and solid hits against all cycle. It remains to be seen, however, whether those flaws will prove to be fatal in a year like this.

As for Van Haaften, he seems to be one of the more solid choices short of Evansville Mayor Jon Weinzapfel, who has already turned this race down. His bio is available here.

UPDATE: Rasmussen is quick to show up on the scene with a bucket of cold water:

IN-Sen (2/16-17, likely voters):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 32

Dan Coats (R): 46

Some other: 7

Not sure: 15

Brad Ellsworth (D): 27

John Hostettler (R): 46

Some other: 7

Not sure: 19

Brad Ellsworth (D): 30

Marlin Stutzman (R): 40

Some other: 9

Not sure: 21

Baron Hill (D): 32

Dan Coats (R): 48

Some other: 6

Not sure: 14

Baron Hill (D): 31

John Hostettler (R): 49

Some other: 5

Not sure: 15

Baron Hill (D): 33

Marlin Stutzman (R): 41

Some other: 7

Not sure: 19

(MoE: ±4.5%)

LATER UPDATE: In what’s probably a sign of increasing coalescence around Ellsworth, state Senate minority leader Vi Simpson, who’d been mentioned somewhere around #4 on the totem pole of potential replacements (behind Ellsworth, Baron Hill, and Jonathan Weinzapfel), has pulled her name from consideration.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen | IN-08

News that will make you sweat:

Restaurant owner Tamyra d’Ippolito (D) has enough signatures to make the ballot in the race to replace Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), she told Hotline OnCall in a brief interview.

Reached at her home, d’Ippolito said she was on her way out the door to drop off more signatures at the county clerk’s office. D’Ippolito’s backers have until noon to submit 4,500 signatures, including 500 from each of the state’s 9 districts, to the appropriate county clerks.

“To my knowledge, yes we do. There’s people putting in signatures as we speak,” d’Ippolito said when asked if she has the signatures necessary to qualify for the ballot. “The answer is yes.” […]

GOPers, sensing an opportunity, have mobilized in some places to help d’Ippolito make the ballot. In a posting on her campaign website, d’Ippolito says she needs more signatures in the 8th CD, specifically in Terre Haute and Evansville.

Smart play by the GOP here — if they manage to get d’Ippolito on the ballot, they may move this race all the way over to Safe R. That is, unless the Democrats can manage to run a Charlie Wilson-style write-in campaign to get a more viable contender through the primary. In any event, it’s sounding increasingly likely that Brad Ellsworth is the guy that Democrats want on the ballot:

Meanwhile, Dems are increasingly looking to Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as the candidate they want on the ballot to replace Bayh. House strategists are quietly beginning to prepare for his Senate bid, which means they will have to find another candidate to run in the competitive 8th district.

UPDATE: The Indiana Democratic Party says that d’Ippolito is off her nut:

In an interview with TPMDC, Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker strongly denied that cafe owner Tamyra d’Ippolito has obtained the necessary ballot-petition signatures to appear on the ballot in the Dem primary for Senate — disputing d’Ippolito’s earlier claim to have to have obtained the 500 required in each of the state’s nine House districts.

“I am monitoring the situation with our boards of voter registration and our county clerks’ offices. Those are the places where petitions have to be submitted for certification,” said Parker. “They have to be certified in the counties and then brought to the Secretary of State’s office by Friday. As of this moment, other than Evan Bayh, there’s one candidate, who is a Democratic candidate [d’Ippolito], who has 22 signatures statewide.”

LATER UPDATE: Reid says that d’Ippolito has missed the ballot:

An official in Marion Co. (IN) tells Hotline OnCall d’Ippolito turned in just 3 signatures in the 7th CD, the district with the highest percentage of Dem voters. The noon deadline has passed, meaning d’Ippolito failed to meet the requirements to get on the ballot. She would have been required to submit 4,500 signatures, including at least 500 from each of the state’s 9 districts.

How about Mike Pence? From the Politico:

House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) will speak with aides this afternoon to discuss whether to jump into the Indiana Senate race. […]

But aides are skeptical he’ll pull the trigger. There are concerns that he publicly passed on the opportunity to run last month, citing the GOP’s strong position in the House. Further, he’s considered among the strongest candidates for governor of Indiana in 2012.

Privately, aides to Pence say he was concerned about Bayh’s $13 million in the bank, but now Pence could be able to “walk into the seat,” according to an aide.

I find it hard to imagine Mike Pence actually doing this — the mechanics seem to be too difficult to pull off with the filing deadline so soon. That said, the rumors are swirling; we’re even hearing some chatter about Gov. Mitch Daniels plunging into the race.

For the Democrats, speculation seems to be centering on current Reps. Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, ex-Rep. Tim Roemer (the current Ambassador to India), and Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who is viewed as one of the party’s leading candidates for the gubernatorial race in 2012. But of course, Democrats may need to make sure that the ballot is clear before getting the opportunity to hand the nomination over to any of these guys. (And, as it stands right now, that’s an open question.) Otherwise, we may be looking at a Charlie Wilson-style write-in campaign.

UPDATE (Crisitunity): So what about Tamyra d’Ippolito, college-town coffee shop owner and erstwhile Senate candidate? TPM contacted her camp and finds that she’s currently 1,000 votes short of the required 4,500, with a particular shortage in IN-08 (she needs at least 500 in each congressional district). Somehow, given the choice between running her or naming their own preferred candidate, I don’t think the party will get actively involved in the efforts to help her to get on the ballot in time. Neither does d’Ippolito: “So I have no idea what they will do, but they have not been cooperative so far,” d’Ippolito added. “It would be nice if they turned around and became cooperative, but I don’t know.”

UPDATE: It’s now sounding like Mike Pence won’t run, despite an hour or two of interest. Chris Cillizza tweets that Pence’s spokesman’s official statement is: “Mr. Pence has filed for re-election to the 6th Congressional District of Indiana.” Which apparently is code for “no.”

LATER UPDATE (James): d’Ippolito’s campaign manager has told Real Clear Politics that their chances of getting all the required signatures are “slim to none”, but that they won’t step aside if they somehow do.

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Cross former Democratic Governor Joe Kernan off the list; he says he won’t run.

Unbelievable:

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will not seek a 3rd term in the Senate next year, according to a Dem source, handing Dems yet another setback as they struggle to salvage their damaged ship.

Bayh, elected statewide 5 times, will become the 5th Senate Dem not to seek another term. His decision to step aside , first reported by The Fix and confirmed to Hotline OnCall, creates an open seat in IN, a usually-red state that broke the mold in ’08 by voting narrowly for Pres. Obama. […]

Update: The filing deadline is tomorrow, not Friday, as we wrote earlier. Dem sources say Ellsworth is the candidate most likely to jump into the contest.

UPDATE: What a wiener:

“Two weeks ago, the Senate voted down a bipartisan commission to deal with one of the greatest threats facing our nation: our exploding deficits and debt. The measure would have passed, but seven members who had endorsed the idea instead voted ‘no’ for short-term political reasons,” he said. “Just last week, a major piece of legislation to create jobs – the public’s top priority – fell apart amid complaints from both the left and right. All of this and much more has led me to believe that there are better ways to serve my fellow citizens, my beloved state4 and our nation than continued service in Congress.”

Bayh needs to fork over all $13 million of his war chest over to the DSCC, stat.

UPDATE: With the filing deadline tomorrow, Democrats must submit 500 signatures per CD for their replacement candidate to qualify for the ballot. Not sure how Dems can swing this, or if there are any loopholes they can exploit to get someone else on the ballot.

LATER UPDATE: Just to clear up a bit of confusion — if you check out page 16 of this PDF, you’ll see that candidates first have to file a declaration of candidacy. The deadline to do that is tomorrow. Having done that, the candidate has to file their petitions by the 19th.

REPLACEMENT UPDATE: So here’s the deal: if no candidate files, the Indiana Democratic Party will get to select a replacement for Bayh by committee. However, Bayh does have a Democratic challenger right now: Tamyra d’Ippolito. Democrats are hoping that she won’t be able to gather enough signatures in time in order to make the ballot.

NYT:

Representative William Delahunt, Democrat of Massachusetts, was speaking by phone Friday about the decision of his colleague Patrick Kennedy not to seek re-election in Rhode Island. In doing so, Mr. Delahunt, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election himself this year, might have signaled a hint about his own future.

“He went through a process that all of us in public life go through,” said Mr. Delahunt of Mr. Kennedy. “Honestly, I am going through that process myself.”

Mr. Delahunt, who has served in Congress since 1997, said he would announce whether he would seek re-election in March.

Delahunt, as you may know, occupies a district that Obama won by 55-44 in 2008, Kerry by 56-43 in ’04, and Gore by 54-39 in 2000. Yet Republicans view his seat as their ripest pick-up opportunity in the state after Scott Brown handily carried the district last month in the state’s special Senate election. Republicans actually have a bench to choose from here: ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone has begun polling for the race, and state Rep. Jeffrey Perry is already in.

For the Democrats, there has been some buzz about Joe Kennedy III swapping himself in, but that’s yet to be substantiated as anything more than idle chatter at this point.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-10

Huh, wow:

A Democratic official says Rep. Patrick Kennedy has decided not to seek re-election for his seat representing Rhode Island in the U.S. Congress.

The official spoke to The Associated Press only on the condition that his name not be used because he was not authorized to speak ahead of the official announcement. …

Patrick Kennedy has been in and out of treatment for substance abuse since crashing his car outside the U.S Capitol in 2006. Still, he has been comfortably re-elected twice since then, after making mental health care his signature issue in Washington.

Kennedy sought treatment as recently as the middle of last year, so his recurring problems may be a reason for his decision to depart. It’s also worth noting that a recent poll pegged his re-elects at a not-so-hot 35-28. Republican state Rep. John Loughlin had already announced a challenge to Kennedy; he has $110K in the bank. Presumably, many names will line up on the Dem side, as this D+13 district gave 65% of its vote to Barack Obama and 62% to John Kerry.

RaceTracker Wiki: RI-01

Remember this scenario? The one where Charlie Crist was supposed to tap GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart to fill the seat of Sen. Mel Martinez, followed by Lincoln’s brother, 25th CD Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart running for Lincoln’s 21st seat in the special election?

Looks like something like that may actually happen, only Lincoln has decided to make a straight-up retirement. From HotlineOnCall:

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) will announce later today he will not seek another term, CongressDaily reports this morning. […]

The district is heavily Hispanic, thanks to Miami’s large Cuban population. 73% of district residents call themselves Hispanic, while just 16% are white. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won a narrow 51%-49% victory in the seat.

First elected in ’92, Diaz-Balart has had little trouble holding on to his seat. His brother, Mario, represents another heavily-Cuban part of Miami. CongressDaily reports that Mario Diaz-Balart will abandon his district to run in Lincoln’s, which is seen as tilting more toward the GOP.

Now, unlike the recent retirements of Republicans like Steve Buyer, Vernon Ehlers, and George Radanovich, this open seat situation could potentially yield a pair of races worth watching.

Unlike Al Gore and John Kerry, Obama performed well in both the 21st and the 25th, picking up 49% in both districts. The 21st CD has been the stronger of the two districts historically for Republicans, and I’d expect that Mario’s candidacy would be a formidable stopgap for the GOP there. But if Mario does indeed make this move, his open seat in the 25th CD, where he only won 53% in 2008, could yield an interesting race to watch if Democrats can find a solid challenger.

UPDATE: Mario has confirmed that he’ll run for his brother’s seat.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-21 | FL-25

CQ:

Rep. Diane Watson (D-Calif.) is retiring at the end of this Congress, a Democratic source confirmed to CQ-Roll Call on Wednesday.

Watson, 76, is the second member of Congress to announce his/her retirement today. Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-Mich.) confirmed this morning that he would not seek a ninth term. […]

Speculation about possible successors has centered on former state Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, who would be a favorite to win a Democratic primary should she run. Republicans are not expected to compete for the seat.

In case anyone was worried about retaining this seat, CA-33 is tenth most Democratic district in the nation; it has a Cook PVI of D+35 and was won by Barack Obama by an 87-12 margin. Former state Assembly speaker Karen Bass sounds likely to get into the race, and would loom large over the Democratic field.

A special credit is due here to SSP diarist CarnahanDem, who broke this story on Friday, days before we got any follow-up from tradmed sources.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-33

Reid Wilson & Tim Sahd of the Hotline have been kings of the retirement beat, and they break the news on yet another:

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI 03) will announce his retirement at a 10 a.m. presser tomorrow morning, according to a MI-based source.

A press release from Ehler’s office says the presser “follow[s] speculation about his plans to continue serving” in the House. Several GOP sources tell Hotline OnCall his wife had a heart attack last week, further lending credence to speculation he will step aside.

The 2/10 announcement will come a day after state Rep. Justin Amash (R) announced a primary challenge to Ehlers.

Ehlers was not on our watch list, but at age 76, this move isn’t terribly surprising. Though this is, as the Hotline notes, the 17th GOP open seat, it’s probably not fertile territory for Dems. Obama did move the needle enormously here, turning a 59-40 Bush district into a district McCain won by just 49.4-48.8. But it’s growing harder and harder to see Obama’s performance in seats like this as anything but a high-water mark, especially since McCain pulled out of Michigan at the end but Obama kept pushing hard. In an environment like this one, an R+6 seat is going to be a very tough nut to crack.

That said, there may yet be a GOP free-for-all here, given that Amash is all of 29 years old and is only serving his first term in the legislature. (Apparently, state Sen. Bill Hardiman is said to be interested.) No Dems have announced yet, but we’ll keep you posted.