Tag: TN-03

Can we now say that there is a disturbing new trend of Democratic House candidates pulling the plug on their own campaigns? Recently, we had the termination of the candidacies of Todd Book (OH-02) and Dave Roberts (CA-50), and now we can add Paula Flowers to the mix:

Former Tennessee Commerce and Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers is leaving the race for Tennessee’s 3rd Congressional District, she said this morning.

Ms. Flowers, a Democrat, said she had been looking forward to serving the district, but the needs of her husband and three sons had to come first.

“It’s been a very difficult decision,” she said.

Ms. Flowers’ exit from the race leaves one Democrat, systems analyst Brent Benedict, and a crowded field of Republicans.

Flowers was viewed as a strong recruit to test this R+13 district that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House since the early 1990s, but her fundraising never really hit the levels needed to bankroll a strong campaign. Still, unless Democrats can come up with a suitable replacement, this means that Republicans can put away the elbow-grease after their primary is settled.

RaceTracker Wiki: TN-03

A weirdly Senate-free version of the Digest…

• IL-Gov: State Rep. Jack Franks, a Democrat from exurban McHenry County, was a loud and frequent Rod Blagojevich critic, and he was considering parlaying that into a run in the Illinois governor’s primary against incumbent Pat Quinn. Franks just decided against it, though. (He does sound like he’s going for higher office in 2012, including a possible run against Rep. Don Manzullo in IL-16, a low-profile wingnut who’s gotten a free pass for almost two decades in a district that just went for Obama.) Meanwhile, Pat Quinn got another key union endorsement, from UNITE HERE’s Local 1 (giving him pretty much the big union trifecta, having already gotten the SEIU and Teamsters).

• MI-Gov: I can honestly say I didn’t see this coming; businessman Rick Snyder, who’s been polling in the low single digits in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Michigan, won a straw poll this weekend at a confab of party insiders on Mackinac Island. Snyder (who looks like he’s positioning himself as the ‘moderate’ in the race) got 31%, while AG Mike Cox and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard each got 24%.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor just moved its statewide convention from June to late April. This change appears to be due in part to the expected shift in Minnesota’s primary from September to August (or earlier), thanks to a new federal law regarding the date by which absentee ballots for the general election must be mailed. The new convention date probably makes life a bit harder for candidates who are currently members of the state legislature, since the legislative session doesn’t end until May 17th, 2010. (D)

• OR-Gov: Up-and-coming Clackamas County Chairwoman Lynn Peterson was the subject of some gubernatorial speculation a few weeks ago, but now she’s declared that she won’t be running for the Democratic gubernatorial nod next year (despite her Facebook page saying otherwise).

• PA-Gov: AG Tom Corbett got another high-profile (if somewhat stale) endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial contest: Dick Thornburgh, Pennsylvania’s former governor and US Attorney General.

• IN-02: GOP St. Rep. Jackie Wolarski (who has earned the sobriquet “Wacky Jackie” for her right-wing views) turned down the NRCC’s entreaties for a run against Rep. Joe Donnelly in 2008, leaving them with the woeful Luke Puckett. However, she’s sounding more interested about a run in the R+2 2nd for 2010.

• NV-03: Back to the drawing board for the NRCC in Nevada: their touted recruit John Guedry, a deep-pocketed banker who announced his bid last month against freshman Rep. Dina Titus, withdrew from the race over the weekend, citing family concerns. They may turn to former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins instead, who had considered the race. Former state Sen. Joe Heck could be another replacement, but he says he’s staying put in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

• NY-14: Our condolences to Rep. Carolyn Maloney and her family; her husband, Clifton Maloney, died while on a climbing expedition in the Himalayas, having just summitted the world’s sixth-highest peak.

• NY-23: More trouble for moderate GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava on her right flank: the Club for Growth has endorsed her Conservative opponent, Doug Hoffman (although they’d certainly telegraphed their intents, having released a poll showing him making it a 3-way race). Also, Hoffman got another boost among the social conservative set, via an endorsement from Fred Thompson (of 2008 presidential nap race fame). Democrat Bill Owens isn’t wasting any time; he’s up with his second TV spot of the campaign already.

• TN-03: Robin Smith, the leading GOP candidate to replace Zach Wamp, is claiming that Barack Obama personally called her “everything from racist to terrorist to extremist”. Smith, who served as chair of the Tennessee GOP during the last cycle, gained some previous notoriety for taking a hard run at Michelle Obama. The Smith campaign has yet to issue a retraction. (J)

• WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan, long-serving Democrat in northern West Virginia, has easily dispatched GOP opposition in his R+9 district over the decades. In 2010, it looks like he’ll face off against state Senate minority whip Clark Barnes. One glitch: although Barnes grew up in the 1st, his Randolph County residence and almost all of his Senate district are in the 2nd.

• Census: Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah — feeling the heat from the right in his primary — is introducing legislation to require the Census to ask a citizenship status question for purposes of apportionment. Such a bill is unlikely to gain any traction in a Democratic-controlled Congress.

• CT-Sen: Economist/talking head Peter Schiff, who’s been talking himself up for Chris Dodd’s Senate seat, released an internal poll taken for him by Wilson Research Strategies. Schiff, from the Paulist wing of the party, loses the general to Dodd, 42-38; the bad news here is that, despite the AIG imbroglio falling down the memory hole, Dodd is still significantly behind ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, 47-38. One thing the poll doesn’t test (or at least release publicly): results in the GOP primary.

• OH-Sen: Car dealer Tom Ganley announced his candidacy for the GOP primary for the open Senate seat. (I thought he’d already announced on April 2, but I guess he needed to remind the media of his existence.) Ganley owns 38 dealerships, so he’s not just your average used car dealer; he vows to self-fund significantly in his uphill fight against Rob Portman.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s Independence Party seems determined to field a major candidate in 2010’s ultra-confusing gubernatorial race, and at the top of their wish list is ex-Rep. Jim Ramstad. Ramstad’s name has occasionally been linked to the race as a Republican, but he may be too moderate to make it out of the activist-dominated nominating process. Ramstad’s popularity would make him one to watch in the general, but he’d be laboring under the IP label, whose candidates (including moderate Dem ex-Rep. Tim Penny, who ran for Governor in 2002) have had trouble getting out of the 10-15% range this decade.

• NJ-Gov: Yet another poll of the New Jersey governor’s race, and while it still has Jon Corzine losing to Chris Christie, I’m going to file this in the “good news” column, as it has Corzine down by only 6, with Christie under 50%: 45-39. Interestingly, New Jerseyites seem to understand that the state has become fools gold to Republicans: despite their preferences, they still think Corzine will win, 46-38. Corzine also has a campaign appearance scheduled for July 16 with someone who’s actually maintaining a 62% approval rating in New Jersey (which would translate into about 105% approval in a normal state): Barack Obama. Which, I think, is the first in-the-flesh appearance Obama has made on behalf of any candidate since getting elected.

• NY-Gov: Maybe I’m feeling extra charitable today, but I’m also going to file yesterday’s Marist poll in the “good news” column, because it actually shows David Paterson beating someone: he tops feeble ex-Rep. Rick Lazio 41-40 in a potential matchup. Of course, he still loses to everyone else, whether Andrew Cuomo in a primary (69-24) or Rudy Giuliani in the general (54-37, although that’s also an improvement from May). In case you’re wondering how a Cuomo/Lazio matchup would go, Cuomo would win 68-22.

• SC-Gov: Well, maybe publicly proclaiming that your mistress is your “soulmate” and that you’ve had run-ins with other women (but never crossed “the sex line”) isn’t the best way to keep your job. After it looked like Mark Sanford was successfully digging in for the last few days, the tide seems to be turning: Columbia’s The State says that 12 (of 27) state Senate Republicans have signed a letter to Sanford asking him to resign (including state Sen. Larry Grooms, who’s running to replace Sanford and would suffer having to run against LG Andre Bauer as an incumbent), with 4 more on the record as supporting it but not signing it, or leaning in that direction; Jim DeMint also asked Sanford to pack it in. While the Columbia and Charleston papers haven’t called for resignation, the News in Greenville yesterday joined the Spartanburg Herald-Journal (the twin cities of the state’s bible belt) in publishing an editorial doing so.

• NY-23: Looks like moderate GOP Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who has attracted the interest of both parties in the NY-23 special election, is going full-speed-ahead on the GOP side. She told supporters she’ll be “aggressively seeking her party’s nomination.”

• NY-29: Corning (pop. 11,000) mayor Tom Reed announced that he’ll run against freshman Rep. Eric Massa in 2010. Reed seems to be running as an out-and-proud moderate, with the Main Street Partnership expected to support him. The NRCC has identified him as a leading recruit but hasn’t endorsed him, with several other candidates reportedly still exploring the race. (For what it’s worth, Corning is the hometown of Amo Houghton, former Corning Glass CEO and popular GOP moderate who held this seat for decades.)

• PA-15: I’m starting to like Bethlehem mayor John Callahan more and more, as it’s come out that in 2005 he proved he can match Rahm Emanuel F-bomb-for-F-bomb. Callahan’s response to Emanuel’s needling that “Are you tired of being fucking mayor yet?” was “It’s better than being a fucking congressman.” (The only reason this is relevant today is that the NRCC is now using this incident to argue that he’s now disqualified from becoming a congressman.)

• TN-03: Former GOP state chair Robin Smith made it official, that she’s running to replace Zach Wamp in the 3rd. She had previously quit her party job to focus full-time on exploring the race, so no surprise here; Smith is the likely GOP frontrunner.

• NRCC: The NRCC wasted no time in launching ads to go after the potentially vulnerable House Dems who voted yes on cap-and-trade. Rep. Tom Perriello is the recipient of the dread TV ad this time, while they also took out radio spots and robocalls against Harry Teague, Rick Boucher, Bruce Braley, Betsy Markey, Vic Snyder, Baron Hill, Mary Jo Kilroy, Alan Grayson, Zack Space, Bart Gordon, Debbie Halvorson, John Boccieri, and Ike Skelton.

• Votes (pdf): The Hill has a handy scorecard arranged by district lean while showing how many times vulnerable Dem representatives have broken ranks on 15 important bills. The biggest defector, unsurprisingly, is Bobby Bright, who flipped 13 out of 15 times. (Compared with Chet Edwards, in an even more difficult district but who defected only twice.) The guy who stands out like a sore thumb, though, is Joe Donnelly, who defected 8 times in IN-02, a district that Obama actually won, 54-45.

• MS-St. House: Democrats held the line in a special election in Mississippi state House district 82, as Democrat Wilber Jones held the seat. This is an African-American majority seat, but attracted some attention because the GOP ran a credible African-American candidate, Bill Marcy… but he still went on to lose, 66-34. Dems hold the edge in the House, 75-47.

• SC-Gov: You’ve probably already heard, but Mark Sanford finally turned up today, returning not from the Appalachian Trail but freakin’ Argentina, where apparently he decided to go for a spur-of-the-moment visit. Prepare a industrial-sized garbage bag full of popcorn for his 2 pm EDT press conference. [UPDATE: Well, in case you have a computer that only gets SSP and no other news outlets, it turns out that Sanford was in Argentina to break off an affair with an Argentinian woman he’d met via e-mail. He’s very sorry. He’s also resigning as head of the RGA.]

• AR-Sen: The Republican field of contenders to take on Blanche Lincoln just keeps getting bigger, and also keeps becoming more and more amateur-hour. Searcy “businessman” Fred Ramey entered the race (he owns a real estate investment company, which is apparently so successful that he also is a driver for Federal Express). Two other unknowns — retired Army colonel Conrad Reynolds and financial advisor Buddy Rogers — have also come forward to say they’re considering the race.

• FL-Sen: Mike Huckabee officially endorsed former state House speaker Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary today (although he had already made his feelings clear in an earlier e-mail to supporters touting Rubio). Seeking to grab the movement-conservative flag as he looks to take advantage of the growing GOP schism as he heads toward 2012, he also tore into the NRSC, who held a big fundraiser for Charlie Crist on Monday attended by 15 GOP Senators. Says Huck: “The establishment Republicans have made this endorsement for the same reason that they’re in so much trouble. They go out there and support stuff like TARP bills and stimulus packages, pork-barrel spending and huge debt, and they wring their hands and act like, ‘This is not good, but we don’t have a choice.'”

• KY-Sen: AG Jack Conway, who’s facing off against Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo in the Dem Senate primary, has the endorsement of the state’s entire Democratic U.S. House delegation (all two of them). Ben Chandler and John Yarmuth will both be on hand today for a big Washington DC fundraiser for Conway.

• TX-Sen (pdf): Texas Lyceum released a wide-ranging poll of Texans; one question they asked was who people were supporting in the event of a special election for the Senate. Fully 71% were undecided on this as-yet-non-existent race, but of the eight candidates (all asked together, rather than grouped by party), Democratic Houston mayor Bill White had the most support, at 9%. Other Dem contender John Sharp was at 2%; the top GOPers, AG Greg Abbott and LG David Dewhurst, each were at 4%. (They also polled the gubernatorial primary, finding Gov. Rick Perry beating Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 33-21.)

• AK-Gov: Rumblings seem greater in the last few days that Sarah Palin is unlikely to run for a second term as Alaska governor, so that she can focus on a 2012 bid (and, in light of her declining statewide approvals, avoid the possibility of a career-ending loss in the governor’s election). (Potential opponent Andrew Halcro sums it up neatly: “If you’re Palin, once you’ve flown first class, you don’t go back to coach.”) With a recent Pew poll finding that Palin is the nation’s most popular Republican (key: among Republicans), striking while the iron is hot for 2012 makes sense. The DGA is certainly noticing, and they’re now touting Alaska as one of their four big pickup opportunities in a new fundraising e-mail (along with Florida, Georgia, and Minnesota… which might suggest they think California and Hawaii are in the bag).

• IL-Gov: A whole lot of longshots are piling up in the GOP column in the Illinois governor’s race, which now includes political consultant and TV commentator Dan Proft. Six other GOPers, none of whom seem known statewide, are already in the hunt.

• TX-Gov: State senator Leticia Van de Putte, whose name had cropped up a lot in connection with the Democratic nomination for Governor in recent weeks, released a statement yesterday saying she won’t run. Interestingly, instead of endorsing Tom Schieffer — whose Democratic credentials are kind of iffy — she suggested that fellow state Senator Kirk Watson should run instead.

• AL-02: No time for Congress, Dr. Love! Republican State Rep. and 2008 losing candidate Jay Love decided against a rematch with freshman Rep. Bobby Bright. The exit of Love, who barely lost in this R+16 district last time, means that Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby may escape a noxious primary (the GOP’s main problem last time).

• CA-11: Two Republican members of the Board of Supervisors of San Joaquin County (where almost half of this R+1 district’s votes are located) endorsed Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney yesterday, pleased with his constituent services and work to bring a VA hospital to the area.

• CA-50: We’re looking at a three-way Democratic primary in this R+3 district in northern San Diego county. Solana Beach city councilor Dave Roberts (a former Brian Bilbray supporter) is considering the race and will decide by July whether to jump in. He’d bring one advantage to his race against two-time candidate Francine Busby and attorney Tracy Emblem: he’s actually been elected to something.

• PA-06: PA2010’s Dan Hirschhorn observes that with a series of top-tier hires, Doug Pike is looking more and more like he’ll have the Dem field to himself. Pike has hired Neil Oxman’s Campaign Group to do his media, who’ve worked not only for Gov. Ed Rendell but also for former Senate candidate Joe Torsella and ’02 candidate Dan Wofford — both of whom have had their names tossed around as the most likely other people to run in PA-06. I’d initially assumed the never-before-elected journalist was something of a placeholder until someone higher on the food chain got in the race, but with these hires and the DCCC constantly touting him, it seems clear that Pike is impressing the right people.

• PA-15: Good news out of the Lehigh Valley: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan, who a few months ago had rebuffed requests that he run against Rep. Charlie Dent, may have had a change of heart. Callahan has approached Democratic party leaders about the race, and is now reportedly “seriously considering” running in this D+2 district.

• TN-03: Attorney and radio talk show host Chuck Fleischmann will formally announce his entry into the GOP primary field today in the Chattanooga-based R+13 3rd. Bradley Co. Sheriff Tim Gobble is already running, and former GOP state chair Robin Smith looks like she’ll get in, too.

• NY-St. Sen.: As if the standoff over control of the New York State Senate, tied 31-31, couldn’t get any more embarrassing, yesterday both parties held dueling special sessions… at the same time, in the same room, shouting to be heard over each other, with each side claiming to pass its own bills. Negotations to create a power-sharing arrangement have more or less collapsed.

• Voting Rights: Oregon just became the fourth state to allow online voter registration, joining Washington, California, and Arizona. One less reason to have to get up from behind your computer.

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning’s conference calls with reporters are always good for comedy gold, and his most recent one was no exception, as he heads further off the reservation and out into Howard Beale territory: he referred to Mitch McConnell as a “control freak,” and said he’d be better off without McConnell’s endorsement. He also challenged a reporter, who’d questioned his fitness to serve, to an arm-wrestling match.

• NY-Sen-B: Another primary challenger to Kirsten Gillibrand dropped out of the race, but unlike Steve Israel’s disappearance, this one barely made a ripple in the pond. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer said he’ll run for re-election instead, citing Barack Obama’s desire for a clear path (nothing about an actual phone call from the POTUS, though). Gillibrand is also starting to rack up endorsements from some of her former House colleagues — Maurice Hinchey and Yvette Clarke — as well as state Senate leader Malcolm Smith, Assemblyman Peter Rivera (who was one of her loudest opponents at first), and NARAL New York.

• MN-Sen: The NRSC has better places to spend its money (like trying to salvage NH-Sen, OH-Sen, and MO-Sen), but they’re giving $750,000 to help Norm Coleman with his legal bills in his prolonged fight to get back his seat (or at least keep it empty as long as possible). Meanwhile, Rasmussen now finds that Minnesotans want Coleman to concede right now, 54-41.

• MO-Sen: New (likely) entrant to the race Tom Schweich has wasted no time in lighting Rep. Roy Blunt up like a Christmas tree. Responding to Blunt’s criticisms of a one-time donation by Schweich to Claire McCaskill, Schweich referenced Blunt’s “vintage Washington-style smear campaign” and made fun of Blunt’s big poll gap against Robin Carnahan. How sad is it (for Blunt) that he’s having already playing defense against a never-elected law professor instead of Carnahan?

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett, suddenly facing a likely primary challenge from AG Mark Shurtleff, got high-profile help from Mitt Romney, who cut a TV spot for Bennett. Bennett’s decision to spend big and spend now may be timed to encourage Shurtleff to think more about the 2010 governor’s race that also just materialized.

• MA-Sen: Harry Reid backed down today on yesterday’s comments that Ted Kennedy’s cancer is in remission and that he’ll be back in the Senate after Memorial Day. He said he’ll leave the timeline up to Kennedy and his doctors.

• OK-Sen: Tom Coburn told the Tulsa World that he’ll announce on June 1 what he’ll do with his political future. (Not sure if that’s real world June 1, or Mark Kirk June 1.)

• NY-Gov: Rasmussen takes their first look at the NY-Gov morass. No big surprises: David Paterson has 31/67 approvals. Paterson loses 58-30 to Rudy Giuliani and 47-33 to George Pataki, while Andrew Cuomo beats Giuliani 55-37 and Pataki 57-29. Meanwhile, the GOP is putting together a Plan B in the likelihood that, as recently rumored, Rudy doesn’t even show up; with Rick Lazio exciting nobody, they’re increasingly interested in Erie County Exec Chris Collins.

• WA-Gov: Yes, it’s never too early to start thinking about 2012. AG Rob McKenna, the only Republican who poses a real threat to Dems in this blue state, seems to be staffing up with an eye toward bigger electoral challenges, hiring Randy Pepple (a prominent Republican strategist) as his new chief of staff.

• TN-03: Robin Smith, Tennessee’s GOP chair, quit her job in order to focus full-time on exploring the TN-03 race (to replace the retiring Zach Wamp, running for Governor). Insiders view Smith as the likely frontrunner for the GOP nod; she faces Bradley Co. Sheriff Tim Gobble in the primary, and maybe state Sen. Bo Watson as well.

• GA-12: Another Republican is getting into the race against Rep. John Barrow in this rural Georgia district, despite Wayne Mosely’s made-up statistics that he’s one of the NRCC’s Top 3 recruits. Carl Smith is the fire chief and former city councilor of “Thunderbolt.” (Yes, it’s a real town. I checked the atlas.)

• WI-08: Rep. Steve Kagen also got another Republican challenger: Brown County Supervisor Andy Williams, who represents De Pere on the county board. Marc Savard (Door County Supervisor) is already in the race, so GOP voters will apparently think they’re choosing between an NHL player and the guy who sang “Moon River.”

• FL-AG: Bill Nelson is trying to broker a truce to avoid a three-way primary between state Sen. Dan Gelber, Rod Smith (’06 gube candidate) and state Sen. Dave Aronberg for the AG slot. This could be a pretty important downballot test for Dems here — if a Dem could win this race, they could be the star player of the farm team in Florida for quite some time. (J)

• TN-03: Paula Flowers, the former Tennessee Insurance Commissioner, formally announced her candidacy for the Democratic nomination on Thursday. This is a tough district at R+13, but between it being an open seat (as Zach Wamp is running for governor) and Flowers’ statewide profile, we have a shot here.

• IL-13: Last year, businessman Scott Harper held Rep. Judy Biggert to a much closer than expected margin (54-44) without DCCC help, in this once solidly Republican district (which just plunged from R+5 to R+1). Harper filed an exploratory committee on Friday for a rematch. He can probably count on a higher-profile race this time, especially as strong fundraising might encourage the 71-year-old Biggert to think about retirement.

• MI-07: The GOP is still trying to settle on a challenger to freshman Rep. Mark Schauer in this rural Michigan district. Former Rep. Tim Walberg (who lost after one term to Schauer) seems to have dibs on the race, and state GOP chair Saul Anuzis is thinking he’ll do it again, but Walberg says he’s in no hurry to decide. Brad Smith, a lawyer who’s the son of the district’s former Rep. Nick Smith, seems to be taking shape as their fallback option.

• NJ-03: John Culbertson, a wealthy investor who was courted by the New Jersey GOP to run against frosh Democratic Rep. John Adler based on his capacity to self-fund, says he’s not interested in pursuing the race. (J)

• KS-Sen: I’m not exactly sure what Dennis Hastert has at stake in the Kansas Senate primary, but he waded into it today, endorsing Rep. Todd Tiahrt. (Tiahrt is up against another former Hastert colleague, Rep. Jerry Moran, in a moderate/conservative duel; maybe Hastert sees this as a proxy battle over the GOP’s heart-and-soul.)

• Mayors: In Austin’s mayoral election over the weekend, no candidate finished over 50%, but it looks like there may be no contested runoff after all; 2nd-place finisher Brewster McCracken, who trailed fellow city councilor Lee Leffingwell by 20 points on Saturday, said that he’s bowing out of the runoff and conceding. In San Antonio, former city councilor and rising star Julian Castro easily won against eight other challengers.

There’s a whole lotta shakin’ going on in Tennessee today. First, the big news: ex-Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. won’t run for Governor. For the Democrats, that leaves the field to state Sen. Roy Herron, Nashville businessman Ward Cammack, and former state House Majority Leader Kim McMillan. Mike McWherter, a distributor of beer and son of popular former Gov. Ned McWherter, is also a rumored candidate for the nomination. On the Republican side of the fence, GOP Rep. Zach Wamp, Memphis DA Bill Gibbons and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam will duke it out.

And speaking of Wamp, while his Chattanooga-based 3rd District is a tough nut to crack for any Democrat, it has been competitive in the past (Marilyn Lloyd, a conservative Democrat, held the district for twenty years before retiring in 1994, the same year that Wamp won the open seat with 52% of the vote), and it looks like Tennessee Dems are set to make more than just a token effort for the seat. The Knoxville News reports that former Tennessee Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers is set to jump into the race:

Oak Ridge attorney Warren Gooch, who was flirting with running for the 3rd District Congressional seat, has decided not to be a candidate for the Democratic nomination in next year’s election, but former state Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers, who also lives in Oak Ridge, is going to run.

“I’m getting my plans in order, getting my ducks in a row. I’m putting an exploratory committee together,” she said. She said she would have an announcement in a couple of weeks. […]

But Gooch does feel that Flowers, who served in the state job for Gov. Phil Bredesen in his first term, would be the right candidate, he said.

“Paula’s background and credentials (are strong) against a likely candidate from Hamilton County, with the most likely (GOP candidate) the current Republican state chairman, Robin Smith,” Gooch said.

SSP’s analysis of the 2008 vote shows that McCain romped in the 3rd CD by a 62-37 margin, so this would be tough sledding even if the GOP finds itself muddied due to a contentious primary. Still, Flowers will bring some serious fundraising connections to the table, and her background may prove attractive to the rural portions of this district: she’s currently serving as the VP of an energy company that’s seeking to develop local farm-grown switchgrass into biofuel.

• NY-20: You’ll never believe who Barack Obama endorsed in the NY-20 special election, happening in just a week: Scott Murphy! He sent out an e-mail to more than 50,000 supporters in the district making the case for Murphy. Still no sign of an Obama appearance, though – and this late move comes as House Dems were supposedly “infuriated” at a lack of White House support for Murphy. Meanwhile, Taegan Goddard claims to have been leaked an RNC internal poll showing Jim Tedisco up over Murphy by only 3.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd just dodged a loud, annoying bullet: CNBC host Larry Kudlow has said that he won’t run against Dodd in 2010. Kudlow said, as many believed, that “it was never a serious proposition” in the first place. Dodd still faces less-known but more credible opposition in the form of ex-Rep. Rob Simmons and probably state senator Sam Caligiuri.

• FL-Sen/Gov: Charlie Crist tells reporters that he’s considering forming a Senate exploratory committee even before the state legislature ends its session on May 1. Crist has previously maintained that he would not announce his future plans until after the current session comes to a close. (J) Meanwhile, former state house speaker Marco Rubio is seeming committed to staying in the Senate race even if Crist gets in; he’s been publicly going after Crist on the stimulus and on gambling.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac’s newest poll is largely unchanged from its last, with Bloombo a shade under 50 and Dems in the mid-30s. But the Dem numbers have improved a little bit, and The Mayor is at his worst approval ratings of his second term (still, 64-28). Will Anthony Weiner’s apparent decision to back off the race allow Dems to rally around Comptroller Bill Thompson? (D)

• NRCC: The NRCC scored a big fundraising haul for its March dinner, with Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal as the keynote speaker. They raised more than $6 million, with 95% of the House Republicans contributing.

• TN-03: The Chattanooga Times Free Press takes a preliminary look at the contenders lining up to replace Zach Wamp (running for TN-Gov) in the solidly Republican 3rd. Right now, Bradley County sheriff Tim Gobble is the only formal candidate. (I’m hoping he wins just because of his hilarious name. I’m especially looking forward to the Gobble-Fudge Act. I can also think of a much more obscene-sounding bill involving a certain minority leader.) Tennessee GOP chair Robin Smith, who may be the strongest candidate, is still in the exploring stage. Other possible GOPers include state senator Bo Watson and state rep. Gerald McCormick. The district’s strongest Dem, state senator Andy Berke, seems more interested in a gubernatorial run. One other possibility is that Wamp may jump back into his seat if he doesn’t get traction in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

• MI-11: Could we finally have a legit challenger in our sights to take on GOP weirdo Thaddeus McCotter? A group of local activists have banded together to draft state Sen. Glenn Anderson for the race (no relation to the six-time Stanley Cup winner). (J)

Roll Call:

Rep. Zach Wamp (R) announced Monday morning that he would run for governor in Tennessee in 2010, creating an open House seat in what should be a safe Republican district.

The decision by the seven-term Congressman came one day after former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) announced he would not seek the gubernatorial post. Since then, the Republican field has opened up and Wamp’s name had been mentioned along with Memphis District Attorney Bill Gibbons and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam.

According to The Hill, Gibbons has also thrown his hat into the ring, ensuring a chance at some nice primary fireworks here. (For more on the contours of the GOP’s internal battle lines, check out this piece from the Nashville Post.)  And as David notes below, open seat fans should probably not get their hopes up over the vacancy in Wamp’s R+9 district.

Wamp’s retirement brings the number of confirmed Republican open seats up to three (Pete Hoekstra in MI-02 and Jerry Moran in KS-01 being the other two), but none of these seats could be called low-hanging fruit for Democrats by any means.