Tag: Richard Burr

We’re going to try out a new feature for weekday afternoons here at Swing State Project: four or five links to various items that we want to get out there but don’t feel like investing a diary’s worth of effort on. Enjoy the bullet points! (We encourage you to add your own bullet points in the comments, and otherwise treat this as an open thread.)

• UT-Sen: Daily Kos polls the 2010 Utah Senate race, where the action appears to be in the primary, but Bob Bennett looks safe for another 6 years. Bennett beats David Leavitt 44-23 in the primary, and, in the general, manhandles Rep. Jim Matheson 55-32 and Jeopardy! champion Ken Jennings 57-21, not that we should expect either of them to run.

• OH-Sen: A third Dem has jumped into the primary field for the 2010 Senate race: state representative Tyrone Yates. He doesn’t have the stature of Fisher or Brunner, but as the only African-American and only Cincinnati-area candidate, he may well complicate things.

• WA-08: The first Dem challenger has announced, and it’s another wealthy ex-Microsoft executive, Suzan DelBene. Don’t look for her to have the field to herself this time, though.

• MN-Sen: In an indication that the Coleman camp has exhausted every possible legal argument that can win in court, he’s moved onto arguing that it was basically a tie so let’s just have a do-over election. Not the kind of thing that someone who has a hope of winning in court ever says.

• Census: The Congressional Black Caucus is pushing the White House to keep the Census within its portfolio even though reliable Dem Gary Locke will now be taking over at Commerce.

• Blogospheria: Blogger brainpower (including Jane Hamsher, Glenn Greenwald, Markos Moulitsas, and Nate Silver) and union bucks come together in the new Accountability Now PAC. The goal is to pressure (and where there’s a good target, primary) bad Dems and create more space for good Dems to maneuver on the left.

• RI-01: Republican state representative John Loughlin is strongly considering a suicide mission against challenge to Rep. Patrick Kennedy. Kennedy got 69% against no-names in his last two elections, but apparently his approval ratings are softening.

• HI-01: In another district where you might be surprised to know there’s an elected Republican, Honolulu city councilor Charles Djou has announced his candidacy for HI-01, which is expected to be vacated by Neil Abercrombie as he goes for governor. Djou claims the endorsement of every Republican in Hawaii’s legislature (all 7 of them).

• NC-Sen: Former state treasurer, and gubernatorial primary loser, Richard Moore won’t be getting involved in the Dem primary to take on Richard Burr in 2010. The field looks clearer for AG Roy Cooper.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/5-7, likely voters):

Roy Cooper (D): 43

Richard Burr (R-inc): 45

Richard Moore (D): 40

Richard Burr (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4%)

If you were to ask me, I’d point to Richard Burr as the Republicans’ most endangered incumbent Senator in 2010. He’s kind of a back-bench non-entity up for his first re-election, he made it into office in a strongly Republican year (2004) against an underwhelming opponent (Erskine Bowles), and North Carolina underwent a pretty dramatic blue shift in 2008, although that may dissipate a bit by 2010.

So it’s nice to have some polling data to support my intuition. Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s Attorney General who was just re-elected by a convincing margin, polls very well against Burr, losing by only two points. R2K also tests Richard Moore, the former Treasurer who lost the 2008 gubernatorial primary to then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, who doesn’t poll quite as well (perhaps he’s still tarnished from that acrimonious primary). However, six points back from an incumbent two years out is still a fairly good place to be, too.

Burr’s favorables are only 47 favorable/46 unfavorable, while Cooper’s are 41/21 and Moore is at 37/27, which looks especially nice for Cooper. While media speculation tends to focus on Cooper, it’s not entirely sure whether Cooper will get into the race, and there are a few other top-tier Dems seemingly mulling the race (Rep. Brad Miller comes to mind, as well as Rep. Heath Shuler). But this race easily looks to be a Tossup with Cooper in it (and probably even with Moore or Miller instead).