Tag: Richard Burr

• MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he’d jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn’t have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he’ll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn‘s comments about how the Senate GOP doesn’t have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.

• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.

• KY-Sen: Here’s a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for “whitfieldforsenate.com” and “whitfieldforgovernor.com” (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?

• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn’t a topline, but the result from a subsample that’s disposed to do well for Moran: people who’ve participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year’s presidential race.)

Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).

• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are “interested.” Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she’ll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who’d do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card… Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can’t have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn’t interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.

• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor’s race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard’s entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run — but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state’s west to sneak through.

• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey’s advantage; she made reference to Musgrave’s letter in her own appeal for contributions.

• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she’d still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.

• FL-25: Here’s a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.

• NC-11: PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina’s state Senate districts.)

• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a “thank you” party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to “the conservative, religious crazy vote” and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.

• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney’s 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor’s position.

• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who’s only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn’t so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)

• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It’s Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, “North Carolina voters,” Shuler trendlines from January). I’ve put each of the Dem candidates’ favorables in brackets.

Elizabeth Edwards (D): 35

Richard Burr (R-inc): 46

Walter Dalton (D): 29 [24-29]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Dan Blue (D): 33 [24-31]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 44

Richard Moore (D): 34 [36-25]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 47

Bob Etheridge (D): 31 [31-27]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 47

Heath Shuler (D): 28  (28) [25-25]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 44 (39)

Cal Cunningham (D): 34 [46-16] ‡

Richard Burr (R-inc): 42

(MoE: ±3.5%)

‡ Cal Cunningham is a one-term state Senator & Iraq veteran (more here). PPP tested him using a positive two-sentence bio as a lead-in, to compensate for his otherwise low name rec – hence the high favorables. A February poll without the bio showed Cunningham with a 10-23 approval rating (sort of odd, huh?), but still holding Burr to a 46-27 margin.

Here’s how Tom Jensen of PPP sums up the situation:

Pulling together all the information we have, here’s the state of the race: when Roy Cooper decided not to run Democrats lost the only candidate who would have made this an instant tossup. But Richard Burr is still in a vulnerable position pretty comparable to where Elizabeth Dole found herself at this time two years ago. But whoever the Democratic standard bearer ends up being will have to be molded into a formidable candidate, as Hagan was, rather than just inherently starting out as one.

Now Democrats are going to have to make a choice – do they get a Shuler or McIntyre who have big bank accounts and a good position from which to raise more or do they go more towards a Cunningham who might need more help raising money but can run as an outsider in an election cycle where not having any Washington taint could be a very good thing? It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

That sounds about right to me.

Bad news:

Big news out of North Carolina: Attorney General Roy Cooper won’t be running for the Senate, depriving Democrats of one of their top recruits against Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.).

“While I am honored by the encouragement I’ve received, I don’t want to go to Washington and serve as a U.S. Senator at this time,” Cooper said in a statement. “I am committed to public service and I want to serve here in North Carolina rather than in Washington.”

This is a major bummer, no doubt. Most polls had Cooper running neck and neck with Burr, holding him well under 50% in all cases — the best numbers any Democrat have yielded in a hypothetical head-to-head.

Still, Burr, who possesses some pretty tepid approval numbers, is not out of the woods yet. Much like Elizabeth Dole last cycle, he’s still polling under 50% against a variety of lesser-known Democrats — including a 39-34 lead against Democratic congressman Mike McIntyre, who himself is not ruling out a bid for the office. Perhaps Bob Menendez should get on the phone, stat.

UPDATE: Roll Call offers a few more recruitment possibilities:

National Democrats could look to several Democratic Members from North Carolina, including Reps. Bob Etheridge and Mike McIntyre, to run for the seat. State Treasurer Richard Moore, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Grier Martin are also possible targets of Democratic recruitment.

LATER UPDATE: The News & Observer has an even more expansive list of potential candidates. It’s well worth a look.

• PA-Sen: In a big diss to Arlen Specter, the Democratic caucus last night voted to slot Specter into the most junior spots on his committees for the remainder of this Congress. The issue won’t be revisited until after the midterm. This strips Specter of one of his strongest re-election arguments: seniority, and the power to make things happen that comes with it (especially on his Appropriations subcommittee… although that’s not as huge a problem in a big state like Pennyslvania as it would be in an Appropriations-dependent state like Alaska).

• KY-Sen: There’s another potential GOP primary challenger to Jim Bunning sniffing out the race, in case SoS Trey Grayson doesn’t show up despite having opened an exploratory committee. Cathy Bailey hasn’t held elective office before, but she’s strong on the fundraising front. She was a Bush Pioneer in 2000, and was rewarded for that with a post as Ambassador to Latvia. She’s married to the former CEO of Providian as well, so she can self-fund if need be.

• NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham attorney and fundraiser for Barack Obama, is telling state Democratic Party leaders that he will run against Richard Burr next year. Still no word on state AG Roy Cooper’s intentions. (J)

• IL-Gov: DuPage County Board chair Robert Schillerstrom is setting up an exploratory committee to run for the GOP nomination in the 2010 gubernatorial race. He’ll join state Senator Bill Brady, who’s already in the hunt. Brady has the “my turn” advantage, having finished 3rd in the 2006 primary, but the suburban Schillerstrom would have the population advantage over downstate’s Brady.

• NJ-Gov: The Democratic Governors’ Association has been reading the Gray Davis playbook (or maybe my advice?): they’re going hard after Chris Christie this month with an ad barrage in order to damage Christie in the hopes of getting the much less-known and more-conservative Steve Lonegan the GOP nomination instead. The Corzine camp is not involved in the efforts, which aims at Christie’s strength: questioning his supposed corruption-fighting credentials as U.S. Attorney.

• VA-02: Ex-Rep. Thelma Drake announced she won’t seek a rematch against Rep. Glenn Nye, who upset her in 2008. This may actually be bad news! for Nye, as there are potential GOP candidates more impressive than the polarizing Drake waiting in the wings. Nye has to be bolstered, though, by the blue shift in this now R+5 district, narrowly won by Obama.

• MN-06: Maureen Reed, a former Univ. of Minnesota regent who ran for Lt. Gov on the Independence Party ticket, will be running in MN-06 in the DFL primary in 2010. While she might not make it through the primary, especially if Elwyn Tinklenberg runs again and/or state Senator Tarryl Clark runs, I’m taking this as a positive sign, in that the IP might not be looking to shoot us in the foot this time. (See also Populista‘s diary.)

• NRCC: The NRCC has launched another offensive on what they perceive as vulnerable (or at least soften-up-able) Dems, with radio ads against Marion Berry, Charlie Melancon, Earl Pomeroy, Zack Space, and John Tanner. Space is the only one who’s on Frontline, but Berry, Melancon, and Tanner are all in districts that moved sharply toward McCain in 2008. The ad attacks the Blue Dogs for being “lap dogs” on the Obama budget.

• Gay marriage: The gay marriage train just keeps building up speed, picking up one more state today. After some public hemming and hawing, Maine Governor John Baldacci signed gay marriage legislation this morning after it passed both chambers of the legislature. (Discussion underway in David Kowalski‘s diary.)

• King County Executive: The first poll is out in the race to lead King County (which puts you in charge of 1.8 million constituents, and is a frequent stepping stone to Washington governor). In a bit of a twist, the Republican (it’s an ostensibly nonpartisan race, but everyone knows who’s what) is in the lead in this dark-blue county: former TV news anchor Susan Hutchison is at 20%, followed by two county councilors from Seattle proper (Dow Constantine at 6 and Larry Phillips at 5) and two Eastside state legislators (Fred Jarrett at 7 and Ross Hunter at 3). All the Dems (each of whom is largely unknown outside his district) added up together beat the widely-known Hutchison, though, so whichever Dem survives the primary seems likely to pull this out in the general election, in Nov. 2009.

• Mayors: Republican Dan Sullivan beat Democrat Eric Croft to replace Mark Begich as Anchorage mayor yesterday, 57-43. (Sullivan has the advantage of being the son of former mayor George Sullivan.) Discussion underway in benjso99‘s diary. Also, yesterday in Detroit, Dave Bing defeated newly-minted mayor Ken Cockrel by 4 points. (Which makes him the second legendary NBA point guard to ascend to mayor, following Sacramento’s Kevin Johnson.)

McLaughlin and Associates (R) for the Civitas Institute (4/21-23, likely voters, March 2009 in parens):

Roy Cooper (D): 34 (41)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 35 (38)

Undecided: 32 (21)

(MoE: ±4%)

So down at the skunkworks at SSP Labs, the boys and I spent some time trying to figure out why on earth both Cooper and Burr would show drops like this from the last survey – especially Coop. Our initial diagnostics came up empty, but after scoping out the innards, I think we’ve come up with something.

You might have noticed that the very first line of this post refers to a polling outfit called “McLaughlin and Associates,” a Republican firm from Alexandria, Virginia. I’m not familiar with them, and in fact, I’ve never seen Civitas identify McLaughlin as their pollster.

More importantly, McLaughlin changed the wording of the horserace question from what Civitas had been using in the past. In other words, we don’t have a true trendline. The old question:

“If the election for United States Senate were held today and the candidates were republican Richard Burr and democrat Roy Cooper, for which would you be voting?  If not sure/unsure/refused… which candidates are you leaning toward: republican Richard Burr or democrat Roy Cooper?”

And the new question:

If the election were held today, which one of the following best describes how you are likely to vote in the election for United States Senate between Richard Burr, the republican candidate, and Roy Cooper, the democratic candidate?

The choices were “definitely X,” “probably,” “lean,” and perhaps “undecided.” The key change is that the old poll actually pushed leaners – it doesn’t look like the new one did. And the less-than-traditional phrasing of the new question seems a bit wonky to me. I’ve never really seen a straight horserace question tested in quite that way before. All in all, an unusual set of choices by Civitas, but it looks like our dedicated gang of greasemonkeys has at least solved this mystery.

• PA-Sen: The founder of the PA chapter of the Club for Growth has called on Pat Toomey to drop out (!), saying that he’s too conservative for Pennsylvania. (No shit.) The Toomey camp fired back with some mostly non-responsive B.S. (D)

• CA-Gov: San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom made the official leap from exploring the California governor’s race to being an officially announced candidate yesterday. He joins Lt. Gov. John Garamendi as the only formal candidates in the race, although Garamendi’s campaign is on hold while he pursues the CA-10 special election.

• CA-Sen: The California GOP has lined up a “strong second choice” to challenge Barbara Boxer if ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina doesn’t get in the race. African-American talk radio host Larry Elder, who was on Los Angeles’s KABC for 15 years, is meeting with GOP officials, but still sidelined while waiting for Fiorina. (The pro-choice, pro-pot legalization Elder is very much from the libertarian wing of the party.) Assemblyman Chuck Devore is already officially a candidate, but the party seems unenthused about his odds.

• NC-Sen, NC-07: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre says that his re-election to the House is his current “concentration”, but when asked if he’s considering a Senate bid, McIntyre told a local ABC affiliate that “you never say never to anything.” A recent PPP poll had McIntyre trailing Richard Burr by only five points. (J)

• TN-09: Rep. Steve Cohen, as a white Jewish man representing a mostly African-American district, is going to always be vulnerable to primary challenges (as seen with last year’s mudfest with Nikki Tinker). It looks like he’ll be facing a serious test this year, as Memphis mayor Willie Herenton has formed an exploratory committee for the House race. Herenton is African-American and has been mayor since 1991, elected five times. On the other hand, there may be some Herenton fatigue going on in this district, as he is under federal investigation, was re-elected most recently with less than 50% of the vote, and announced his resignation in 2008 only to withdraw it shortly after.

• NY-20: You know it’s over for Jim Tedisco when major Republicans are telling him to pack it in. Yesterday, ex-Rep. Tom Davis said it was over, and today, state senator Betty Little (who lost the special election nomination to Tedisco) and Dan Isaacs (who’s running for state GOP chair) also called for the pulling of the plug. Isaacs is so upset that he’s reduced to making up new words: “Tedisco appears not able to pull out a victory in an overwhelmingly Republican district; to me that’s the final indignancy.”

• MI-02: Roll Call takes a quick look at the race to replace retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra. On the GOP side, former state rep. Bill Huizenga is the “biggest voice that’s out there,” but state senator Wayne Kuipers is poised to get in, as is former NFL player Jay Riemersma, who’s well connected with the Christian right. (Notice a common thread in those names? This is the nation’s most heavily Dutch-American district.) There are three Democratic state reps in the district, too, but none of them seem to be making a move yet.

• Michigan: An interesting white paper obtained from the Michigan GOP shows that they’re quite pessimistic about getting back into power in 2010, despite the advantages they seem to be taking into next year’s governor’s race. Their suburban base has eroded since the 1990s, and their one-note message just isn’t resonating with swing voters anymore.

• NRSC: Continuing our theme of unusually reality-based Republicans today, NRSC John Cornyn is sounding an increasingly cautious note about senate prospects in 2010, telling the Hill that it’s “going to be real hard” to keep the Democrats from breaking 60 seats in 2010.

• NH-St. Sen.: Ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, who lost twice to Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, has begun a new, more low-key chapter in his career, as a state senator. He easily won a special election, 61-39, over retired judge Bud Martin, to retain a GOP-held open seat. Dems continue to hold a 14-10 edge in the chamber.

John Sununu Sr. (the state GOP chair) didn’t seem interested in spinning the victory as indication of a new GOP trend in New Hampshire, though. Always a charmer, Sununu’s thoughts instead were:

He said Bradley’s election actually helps [Gov. John] Lynch. Bradley could be counted on to sustain a Lynch veto of the gay marriage and transgender discrimination legislation, “if he (Lynch) finds the strength to veto that garbage,” Sununu said.

Public Policy Polling (4/8-11, registered voters, 12/8-9 in parens):

Roy Cooper (D): 41 (39)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 37 (34)

Mike McIntyre (D): 34

Richard Burr (R-inc): 39

(MoE: ±3.1%)

PPP seems to be on a quest to test every conceivable Dem against Richard Burr, and this time they threw 7th CD Rep. Mike McIntyre into the mix; despite being unknown to over half the state, McIntyre posts the best performance of any Dem against Burr in PPP’s polling other than state Attorney General Roy Cooper. While McIntyre has not expressed any interest in the Senate race, he would bring some regional strength in a hypothetical match-up; in a head-to-head against Burr, he leads the Republican by 48-33 in Southeastern NC, while Burr and Cooper are tied at 40-40 there.

Still, Cooper is undoubtedly our best bet for this race. He sports a solid 41-20 favorable rating (much better than Burr’s tepid 35-31 rating), and destroys Burr among moderate voters by a 56-21 margin. For those keeping score, this marks the third poll (of four publicly-released ones) showing Cooper in the lead. Luckily for us, Cooper will make a decision on this race “very soon“.

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

In a story released today by The News & Observer, North Carolina’s Democratic state Attorney General Roy Cooper indicated that he may decide on whether or not to run for Senate in 2010 IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS!

Polls by Civitas and Public Policy Polling already show Attorney General Cooper beating Republican incumbent Richard Burr (who has recently gained notoriety by blocking Tammy Duckworth’s appointment to a Veterans Affairs post).

If you so see fit, PLEASE call Roy Cooper’s campaign office at 919-832-4312 (you’ll probably get voice mail) and leave a simple message encouraging Roy Cooper to run for Senate in 2010.  Explain that North Carolina and all of America would benefit by having his common sense voice replace Richard Burr’s obstructionist voice.

Every word of encouragement he receives makes him more likely to run — and, if he runs, we can replace Republican backbencher Richard Burr with a strong Democrat like Roy Cooper!

On the web: Draft Roy Cooper for U.S. Senate in 2010 Facebook Group

On the web: Draft Coop

Civitas (3/16-19, registered voters):

Roy Cooper (D): 41

Richard Burr (R-inc): 38

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Roy Cooper, the Attorney General of North Carolina, continues to post the best numbers of any prospective Democrat against GOP wallflower Richard Burr. A Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos in January showed Burr edging Cooper by a 45-43 margin, while PPP had Cooper leading by a 39-34 spread in December. Burr has to be nervous about a head-to-head race against the state’s top lawman.

Both Burr and Cooper will have an opportunity to acquaint a broad swath of voters with themselves; Burr holds a 44-12 favorability rating, but 31% have “no opinion” of the Senator, and another 19% have never heard of him. Lacking a well-defined image after four years in office while holding a notoriously volatile seat seems to be Burr’s biggest weakness at this point. Cooper, meanwhile, is not exactly a household name either — he sports a 32-4 favorability rating with 27% having no opinion of him and complete unfamiliarity with another 37%.

Still, Democrats have to be pretty excited about these nums. We just have to hope that Cooper can be persuaded to take the plunge.

• NC-Sen: If Richard Burr wants to be re-elected, there’s one big problem he’s going to have to overcome: his constituents don’t seem to have any idea who he is. PPP finds that his approval ratings are only 35%. That sounds dire, but he’s actually on the plus-side of the ledger, with 32% disapproval. That leaves 33% who don’t know, which is huge considering that he’s been in office for more than four years now. They also run a head-to-head for Burr against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who seems to have no intention to run); Burr wins 43-35.

• CA-10: The field in California’s 10th district to replace Ellen Tauscher in a special election seems to be taking shape. As expected, the district’s two heavyweights, state senator Mark DeSaulnier and assemblyman Tom Torlakson (who recently swapped seats because of term limits), are jockeying for position. (Politico suggests several other possible Dems include assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, and Santa Monica city councilor and Kennedy clan member Bobby Shriver, who’s interested despite currently being about 400 miles outside the district.) While Obama won the district 65-33, the GOP isn’t going down without a fight; their possible candidates include San Ramon mayor Abram Wilson and former 49er Bret Jones.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd, who already has enough egg on his face to make a big omelette, got even messier with his admission that he inserted the language that allowed payment of the AIG bonuses. Nevertheless, he told the Hartford Courant today that he’s not retiring and is still in the race for 2010.

• OK-05: Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett, a potential contender for the open seat being vacated by gubernatorial candidate Mary Fallin, was making the rounds on Capitol Hill today. Cornett, who lost in the primary to Fallin in 2006, is still officially undecided on the race. The Club for Growth has already endorsed former state rep. Kevin Calvey. Other possible GOPers in the race include Corporation Commissioners Jeff Cloud and Bob Anthony, state senators Todd Lamb and Glenn Coffee, and state rep. Mike Thompson.

• LA-02: The NRCC isn’t letting go of this one without at least some token efforts; NRCC leaders Pete Sessions and Mike Rogers, along with Charles Boustany, are hosting a lunchtime fundraiser for Joe Cao today.