Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, “North Carolina voters,” Shuler trendlines from January). I’ve put each of the Dem candidates’ favorables in brackets.
Elizabeth Edwards (D): 35
Richard Burr (R-inc): 46Walter Dalton (D): 29 [24-29]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 48Dan Blue (D): 33 [24-31]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 44Richard Moore (D): 34 [36-25]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 47Bob Etheridge (D): 31 [31-27]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 47Heath Shuler (D): 28 (28) [25-25]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 44 (39)Cal Cunningham (D): 34 [46-16] ‡
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±3.5%)
‡ Cal Cunningham is a one-term state Senator & Iraq veteran (more here). PPP tested him using a positive two-sentence bio as a lead-in, to compensate for his otherwise low name rec – hence the high favorables. A February poll without the bio showed Cunningham with a 10-23 approval rating (sort of odd, huh?), but still holding Burr to a 46-27 margin.
Here’s how Tom Jensen of PPP sums up the situation:
Pulling together all the information we have, here’s the state of the race: when Roy Cooper decided not to run Democrats lost the only candidate who would have made this an instant tossup. But Richard Burr is still in a vulnerable position pretty comparable to where Elizabeth Dole found herself at this time two years ago. But whoever the Democratic standard bearer ends up being will have to be molded into a formidable candidate, as Hagan was, rather than just inherently starting out as one.
Now Democrats are going to have to make a choice – do they get a Shuler or McIntyre who have big bank accounts and a good position from which to raise more or do they go more towards a Cunningham who might need more help raising money but can run as an outsider in an election cycle where not having any Washington taint could be a very good thing? It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
That sounds about right to me.
Burr is exceptionally mediocre in every fashion, Dole was a political powerhouse.
In 2008, Republicans were near their low in popularity, and while Dole started of strong, she really screwed up in the end.
It seems to start more off in a middle ground leading to the 2010 race. Burr is no where near the level of strength that Dole had in this same point of the 2008 cycle, but he is less likely to make major mistakes in lieu of what happened to Dole. Plus 2010 will not be as disatrious for Republicans, and indeed a desire for divided goverment may very well keep Burr in office.
However, Burr will have a very difficult time running for reelection. The DSCC will need to spend alot of money in this race for the Democratic challanger, much more than if Cooper had jumped in, but the a Democrat is more than electable in North Carolina and their is more than enough time for them to be competive and possibly win.
My gut feeling is that we should go with a non-Washington type again to knock off Burr, and Cunningham seems like the type to do that. I need to do more research on him before a verdict, though. Why did he only serve one term?
She is a god damn trooper and I think could win a Senate seat. She has really capitalized (not the word I’d really want to use, involves too much self) on her husband’s presidential runs and has shown her passion.
With that said, I’m looking forward to anyone, really. Edwards would make my day though.
That’s the first I’ve ever heard his name mentioned. Can someone fill me in?
On of the NC blogs was talking up Richard Moore, and from what I read he sounded pretty good, being pretty progressive minded on climate change, healthcare, and corporate accounability, although the way he went about supporting the death penalty, using religious language, was a little odd I thought. He does have some baggage with the nasty Gov. primary behind him, but I still think he’d be pretty good.
that’s seems like the most important number. the dem numbers are more or less generic dem. i don’t know, but my sense is that this is a significant uptick for burr – from 42 or 43 to 46 in general.
and i don’t know if Democrats really have any choice at all right now since not one serious democrat seems to want to run:( if someone steps up (mcintyre, shuler, moore or cunningham), i think we’ll embrace them. i know that shuler is pretty right wing, but damn! we gotta get moving here.
And out of these possible candidates it looks like Cunningham is the candidate who can best do that.
The guy is essentially a nobody. He’s a one-term state legislator that has been out of public office since 2005 with zero name ID. If it’s the Army reserve thing that excites you, why wouldn’t you just go with Grier Martin who is actually active in state politics right now and is an Army reservist himself?