Obama picked Sonia Sotomayor to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice David Souter today, making her the third woman and first Hispanic ever nominated for the High Court. Folks rarely vote over judicial nominations (evangelical voters aside), but she could generate a lot of ripple effects. Already, the conventional wisdom from several pundits is that this will put Republicans in a bind – they’d be opposing history if they try to block Sotomayor’s appointment. Yet, as SCOTUS blog points out, there are too many right-wing activists that have devoted too much money to let her slide. Already, her comment that the high court is “where policy is made” is raising the ire of the right.
It’s also proving to be a diving issue for primaries as well; in Florida, Rubio is more likely going to oppose her while Crist’s support for her may cost him further with the base. There will likely be more GOPers (and moderate Dems) who will feel pressure from the base to either support or oppose. There’s also the issue of the nomination’s timing. This is a critical session for the Democrats – healthcare and energy reform are both on an the front burner, along with backlogged executive appointments, a 2010 appropriations bill, and transportation – and the spectacle of a Supreme Court nomination battle could put a huge damper on the Democratic party’s agenda, giving incumbents less to go home and brag about for 2010.
Thoughts? Will Sotomayor impact the 2010 elections in any way, or will she just be a blip on the screen by then? As an aside, what do you think this will portend for the MN Senate recount (my money is on Coleman appealing to SCOTUS for sure now to keep Franken from voting her in).
1. Will Republican opposition draw the ire of Hispanics and women? Could effect races like NV-Sen, AZ-Sen, TX-Sen, AZ-Gov, TX-Gov, FL-Gov, FL-Sen (R Primary), CO-Sen, NV-Gov, NM-Gov, CA-Gov.
2. Specter’s decision, if not sealing his fate, may either spare him a Democratic primary challenge or give him one.
3. Same goes for Bennet of Colarado.
aspect. Sotomayor won’t necessarily “forever seal up the Hispanic vote for Democrats”, nor is it likely to cause a backlash among female voters if the Republicans put up a fight. Think back to Clarence Thomas; while that may arguably have helped the tiniest bit in movement of women toward the Democrats in 1992, it definitely did nothing to suppress black support for Bill Clinton and the Democrats. And it was Bush’s incompetent handling of the economy that most drove women (and every other constituency) to the Dems that year, not the Thomas/Hill controversy. The only race it may have impacted was PA-Sen, where Specter’s fate was almost sealed by his high-profile role advocating for Thomas. But even then, he still won despite strong momentum toward Lynn Yeakel among the “soccer mom” types.
Meanwhile, it’s pretty clear that Ruth Bader Ginsburg had no decisive positive effect on women’s support for the Democrats in 1994. And the Republicans were undone in 2006 for many reasons, virtually none of them related to Alito or Roberts.
So I don’t think this means much for 2010 other than the fundraising boost a vitriolic SCOTUS fight might give both sides.
that grassroots activists care about involving Supreme Court Justices, imho, is what effect there might be on the iconic symbol of what the Court is and does, i.e. the upholding of Roe v Wade. Even though RvW is reaching Unoverturnable territory (68%) in the electorate.
The USSC is the only place in the federal government where reactionaries still have a majority they can rely on.
Presidency: 0 of 1
Supreme Ct: 5 of 9
US Senate: ~40 of 100
US House: ~200 of 435
The 2010 elections, and likely the 2012 ones, look to have slight Democratic gains or stalemate results in which more conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans lose office. The House, Senate, and Presidency will harden up as the Democratic Party loses sellouts and closes in on 60/40ish majority.
That makes the USSC majority the last real hold on power Republicans and conservatives have. I don’t think this nomination will matter too much, but the one in which the 5/4 majority flips will be the one the Right tries to fight to the death.
Check that, shocked if Crist comes out in support of this nomination because politically it provides him no benefit. From a general election POV, this nomination will be long forgotten by the time election time rolls around. But if he supports this, it could give Rubio one a single issue to continually hammer him on.
Confirmed about 70-30.
Republicans would have with Sotomayor. On the whole she’s actually a fairly moderate justice and much more liberal and activist judges could have picked. She has an impeccable record and personal biography. I hope they don’t politicize this into a biased circus that will be given to much respectability by much of the media. The Democrats didn’t go that far with Roberts and Alito, despite the fact they both refused to answer questions, had limited judicial experience, and looked like very strong conservative activists.
that and immigration reform should solidify the Hispanic vote for the Dems even more so. Immigration reform though, if we can get a really progressive plan legislated than we should win them for a long time.
Although is anyone else reminded a little bit of the West Wing, season 1? :p
I doubt the pick will have much impact on any 2010 elections. It’s rare for a senator to achieve such a high profile in a confirmation contest that the public knows anything about the senator’s actions one way or another.
The only exceptions I could see would be if a Republican in a primary fight came out in support of Sotomayor. That could really upset the base. So, if Crist came out in support, it might make a difference. I really don’t see any other places it could make a big difference.
But, I think this could help Obama in 2012. One appointment does not win over Hispanics, but it seems clear Obama has been waging a quiet campaign for Hispanic voters. Appointing Sotomayor will be extremely helpful. Perhaps most voters won’t care or remember this in 2012, but influential opinion makers will remember. The crown jewel in Obama’s campaign, however, will be immigration reform. That will lock up Hispanic support for Obama and likely help all Democrats in 2010.