Tag: TN-04

• CA-Sen (pdf): The Public Policy Institute of California takes a look at the California Senate race, and find it a fairly close-looking race if ex-Rep. Tom Campbell survives the primary against wealthy Carly Fiorina and teabagger-powered Chuck DeVore. Unfortunately, it looks like he’s poised to that, leading Fiorina and DeVore 27-16-8. Barbara Boxer leads Campbell 45-41 in the general, while she leads Fiorina by a more comfortable 48-40 and DeVore 47-39. (By comparison, Boxer leads Campbell by 10 in the most recent sample by the widely-respected Field Poll, who found Campbell leading Fiorina 35-25-6.) Another bit of bad news for Fiorina: apparently people at her former company doesn’t think that much of her. Boxer has received the maximum $10K from Hewlett-Packard’s PAC, while Fiorina has gotten nothing.

• IL-Sen: I don’t know if anyone was banking on Jacob Meister and the 1% of voters he was pulling in, but the wealthy attorney running a quixotic bid folded his hand and threw his backing behind Alexi Giannoulias with only a day to go before the primary. He cited David Hoffman’s negative ads and that Hoffman is “more conservative” than he lets on. PPP’s Tom Jensen also has some thoughts on the Republican primary, wondering why Patrick Hughes fizzled while other tea party-fueled insurgent candidates (Rand Paul) have caught a spark; basically, it has to do with money, and not just one’s own money (with Hughes has lots of) but institutional money (from folks like the Club for Growth) instead.

• KY-Sen: Speaking of Rand Paul, he got a top-drawer endorsement today, from Sarah Palin, as the common cause between teabaggers and Paulists now seems fully stitched-together. (Of course, whether that endorsement translates into dollars is another question, especially with today’s revelation that SarahPAC spent more money buying copies of “Going Rogue” to push it up the best-seller lists than on contributions to actual candidates.)

• NV-Sen: While he hasn’t taken any official steps, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki is souding more and more like a Republican candidate for the Senate, publicly saying “I can beat Senator Reid.” (And, the implication probably is, that the second-tier odds and ends currently cluttering the race can’t, once the gloves come off.) With Krolicki being courted by the John Cornyn at the NRSC, that’s just arousing the wrath of the anti-establishment set, though, and even some local bigwigs, like ex-Gov. (and current RNC committee member) Bob List, who’s telling Cornyn to back off.

• NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (pdf): No particular surprises in Marist’s new poll of the Senate landscape in New York, finding that a hypothetical George Pataki challenge, rather than Harold Ford Jr., is the biggest threat to Kirsten Gillibrand. She wins the primary against Ford and Jonathan Tasini 44-27-4. Gillibrand loses to Pataki 49-43, while easily beating the only announced Republican, Port Authority commissioner Bruce Blakeman, 52-30. Ford also loses the general to Pataki, 52-35, while getting past Blakeman 39-35. They even test out the other Senate race, the one no one has been thinking about but that talk show host Larry Kudlow has made some noises about joining. Charles Schumer mops the floor with Kudlow, 67-25.

• WA-Sen: I don’t know if this is going to strike much fear in the heart of Patty Murray, who has flattened three prominent Republican U.S. Representatives over the course of her career, but a poll from Moore Insight (a Republican polling firm in Oregon) clearly designed to lure 2004 and 2008 gubernatorial loser Dino Rossi into the race finds Rossi leading, 45-43. Rossi says “I never say never,” but also says he has “no plans to run for any office at this point.”

• CA-Gov: That same PPIC poll has gubernatorial numbers as well, finding that Jerry Brown shouldn’t take his race for granted either. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman has moved into commanding position in the GOP primary, between her outrageous spending and the disappearance of Tom Campbell from the race; she leads Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner 41-11 (an improvement from 32-8 in December). Brown leads Whitman by five, 41-36 (he led by 6 in December), while he leads Poizner 44-29. Calitics has some advice on how Brown should engage the race if and when he emerges from his Fortress of Solitude, and also some details on how Poizner isn’t going down without a fight, calling for federal investigation into Whitman’s efforts to push him out of the race.

• MD-Gov: Ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich seems to be moving closer to a rematch with the man who defeated him in 2006, Democrat Martin O’Malley. He’s been lining up fundraisers and a statewide “listening tour,” although he says he wants to hear what people actually say on said tour before making a decision one way or the other on the race. Another indicator that Ehrlich is likely to run: the only Republican in the race right now, Larry Hogan, a close Ehrlich friend who said he’s get out of the way for Ehrlich and was in the race as something of a placeholder, has ended his campaign, saying that he’s convinced Ehrlich is getting in.

• MI-Gov: Lt. Gov. John Cherry’s withdrawal from the gubernatorial race is certainly different from what we saw Connecticut and Colorado: instead of leading to an instant upgrade, we’re just seeing a lot of confusion, with none of the options seeming that much better. The newest EPIC-MRA poll of the race finds pizza magnate Denise Ilitch in the best position in the scrambled Dem primary, leading state House speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing mayor Virg Bernero 23-8-5, with a majority undecided. AG Mike Cox leads the Republican field, beating Rep. Peter Hoekstra and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard 32-25-16. Specific head-to-head numbers aren’t reported, but Ilitch reportedly trails Cox by 18 and Hoekstra by 7, with Dillon and Bernero faring even worse. (UPDATE: Thanks to RCP, those toplines are: Cox 48, Ilitch 30; Cox 47, Dillon 30; Cox 50, Bernero 28; Hoekstra 42, Ilitch 35; Hoekstra 40, Dillon 32; Hoekstra 45, Bernero 27.)

• PA-Gov: With rich guy Tom Knox suddenly out of the governor’s race, another Philadelphian is looking to fill his void in a Democratic primary dominated by western Pennsylvania figures. State Sen. Anthony Williams has been sounding out the race; he’d be the only African-American in the field.

• AR-03: We’ve already dissected the possible fields in Arkansas’ 1st and 2nd districts, but now that it looks like the 3rd will be vacant too, let’s see who might step up. One top name is John Arthur Hammerschmidt, the son of the guy who held the seat for more than 20 years (and who notably beat a young Bill Clinton many years ago). A possible return engagement by ex-Rep. and ex-DEA head Asa Hutchinson is also mentioned. Other names for the GOP include former US Attorney Bob Balfe, state Rep. Jonathan Barnett, former state Sen. Dave Bisbee, state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, former state Sen. John Brown, state Rep. Rick Green, city councilor Kurt Maddox, former state Rep. Doug Matoyo, former state Rep. Daryl Pace, current Senate candidate Buddy Rogers, retired general Bernard Skoch, and Rogers mayor Steve Womack. Fayetteville city attorney David Whitaker seems to be the lone Democrat interested in this dark-red district.

• CA-12: Nothing sets off a stampede like an open U.S. House seat in California, where term limits keep people cycling in and out of the state legislature. With Rep. Jackie Speier sounding likely to run for state AG, state sen. Leland Yee, state Assemblyman Jerry Hill, and Assemblywoman Fiona Ma also have said they’re revving up for a run in the Democratic primary in this safely-blue seat.

• LA-02: Rep. Joe Cao seems to have gotten sucked into the downward spiral of direct mail marketing. He raised a pretty good $248K during the last quarter, but somehow managed to spend $283K, meaning he burned $35K and is sitting on only $316K CoH anymore.

• MN-03: Bad news in the 3rd: state Sen. Terri Bonoff, who probably should have been our candidate there in 2008, isn’t going to run there in 2010, instead going for another term in the state Senate. Maureen Hackett and Jim Meffert are facing off for the Democratic nod, but neither of them has Bonoff’s stature in the swingy suburban district.

• NY-15: The Memphis newspaper has an interesting profile of one of the candidates seeking to knock off increasingly-sketchy Rep. Charlie Rangel in the Democratic primary, Harlem community banker Vincent Morgan. What’s the Memphis angle on all this? Morgan is really a Ford; he’s the estranged son of currently imprisoned former state Sen. John Ford, and the cousin of former TN-09 Rep. and current possible NY-Sen candidate Harold Ford Jr. Morgan isn’t close with the family, and prefers to downplay the link.

• PA-08: The minor GOP candidates in the 8th seem to be bailing out, in the wake of the entry of a relative heavyweight, in the form of ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, back to reclaim his seat. Attorney and Iraq vet Dean Malik, who seemed to be as close to a frontrunner as the GOP had pre-Fitzpatrick, dropped out last week and endorsed Fitzpatrick. The self-proclaimed teabagger in the race, Rob Mitchell, also pulled out and threw his support to Fitzpatrick.

• TN-04: Rep. Lincoln Davis had previously made it clear that he was running again, but it’s official today: he filed his paperwork for another run. That’s gotta be a relief for the DCCC, already trying to plug two holes in TN-06 and TN-08.

• TX-23: Former Bexar Co. Commissioner Lyle Larson, who torpedoed the GOP’s preferred candidate (Quico Canseco) in the 2008 primary and then went on to get swamped by Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in the general, won’t be running again this year. Instead, he’s getting into an open seat race for a Texas state House seat instead, giving Canseco a clearer shot this time.

• WV-01: A last-minute primary challenge to Rep. Alan Mollohan sneaked in, and it’s a rather serious one, from long-time state Sen. Mike Oliverio. Oliverio is giving up his Senate seat this year, maybe in hopes that Mollohan would retire; when Mollohan filed for re-election anyway, he may have figured he had nothing to lose by running anyway (although with Mollohan’s ethical cloud having been recently lifted, I’m not sure what Oliverio’s angle would be anymore). Also worth noting: state Sen. Clark Barnes, considering a leading GOP challenger, didn’t even file to run, apparently thinking better of it after the party started touting former state Rep. (and more importantly, potential self-financer) David McKinley instead. (You can check out all the Kentucky and West Virginia filings action in benawu‘s new diary.)

• Facebook: Which political website are you? If you answered “Swing State Project,” you can become a fan of us on Facebook and get regular updates in a largely quiz-free environment.

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: After some flirtation with the idea of switching over to the open seat Governor’s race, or even endeavoring to become Lt. Governor, former State House speaker Andrew Romanoff announced yesterday that he’s going to keep doing what he’s doing (despite having made little headway at it so far): challenging appointed incumbent Michael Bennet in the Democratic Senate primary. Romanoff also threw his support to Denver mayor John Hickenlooper in the gubernatorial primary.

• FL-Sen: I wonder if we’ll see more of this from insurgent Democratic candidates. Former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre, looking for some sort of angle to use against front-running Rep. Kendrick Meek for the Democratic Senate nomination, has come out against the current health care reform plan (although not against HCR in general), calling it “a special interest plan that raises taxes and favors insurance and pharmaceutical companies.”

• KS-Sen: The PMA scandal has mostly left House Democrats tarred with its brush, especially crusty old-school guys from that Appropriations clique, like John Murtha and Pete Visclosky. However, it’s now expanding to take in a key Republican member on Appropriations – one who’s in a tight battle for a promotion to the Senate and can’t afford to get besmirched in any way. The House ethics panel is now looking at the links between Rep. Todd Tiahrt’s donations and defense earmarks.

• NY-Sen-B: Rasmussen checks out the race that’s suddenly on everyone’s mind (and that doesn’t even exist yet, although Harold Ford Jr. just took a monthlong leave of absence from Merrill Lynch to “explore” the race – I wonder if he’ll be doing most of his recon by helicopter). They find numbers very similar to local pollsters Marist and Siena: Kirsten Gillibrand beats Ford, 48-23 (with a surprisingly large 10 for “some other,” presumably Jonathan Tasini although maybe it’s more just “anybody else, please”). Where Rasmussen parts ways with the other pollsters is Gillibrand’s high favorables (and high knowns, period): they have her at 59/27.

• OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Take this with a bag of quick-melting rock salt, if you choose, as it’s a poll commissioned by Ohio Right to Life and conducted by Republican pollster Wenzel Strategies. Still, the numbers clock in pretty close to what Rasmussen has been seeing lately. They see John Kasich with a 43-33 lead in the Governor’s race, and Rob Portman up in the Senate race: 37-31 over Lee Fisher and 40-35 over Jennifer Brunner.

• MD-Gov: One more poll, and it actually shows a Democrat in reasonably good shape. Incumbent Gov. Martin O’Malley is up 9 points against the GOP’s best possible offering, potential candidate ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich, 48-39, according to local pollster Gonzales Research. (Gonzales saw it an 11-point race last September.) O’Malley’s approvals (46%) could use some improvement, but considering that Ehrlich hasn’t sounded likely to get in (although he might be doing a rethink given last night’s events), there are certainly many other races higher on the worry-about list.

• AL-05: If Rep. Parker Griffith thought he’d be welcomed with open arms into the Republican fold, well, he’s got another thing coming. The only good news for him from last night’s meeting of the Madison County (i.e. Huntsville) Republican Executive Committee was that, in the end, they decided not to attempt to get Griffith removed from the primary ballot as a Republican. The real question of the meeting, though, was whether it would be better strategy for Republicans to try to beat him in the primary or via an independent candidacy in November.

• AR-02: Democratic candidates who sound committed to running to replace retiring Rep. Vic Snyder are already piling up – and we haven’t even gotten to Lt. Gov. Bill Halter or ex-Gen. Wesley Clark yet. State House Speaker Robbie Wills today stopped short of saying he’s running, but says he’s “excited” about running. State Sen. Joyce Elliott also sounds very likely to run, while Public Service Commissioner Paul Suskie is in the “seriously considering” stage.

• AZ-03: On the other side of the aisle and of the country, Republicans from the deep local bench are piling into the open seat race in the 3rd, vacated by Rep. John Shadegg. Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker is ending his long-shot gubernatorial campaign and heading over to the 3rd, and he’s being joined by state Sen. Jim Waring (who’s dropping his state Treasurer campaign to do so). They join already-in state Sen. Pamela Gorman and state Rep. Sam Crump.

• IL-10: State Rep. Julie Hamos and Dan Seals continue to split key endorsements in their primary fight for the Democratic nod in the open 10th. Hamos got the endorsements of both the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times, while Seals picked up the smaller-circulation Daily Herald’s endorsement.

• ND-AL: Add one more confirmed name to the list of GOPers sniffing out the at-large House seat in North Dakota, hoping John Hoeven’s Senate bid gives them some coattails against the entrenched Democratic incumbent, Rep. Earl Pomeroy. Former House majority leader Rick Berg kicked off his campaign yesterday.

• TN-04: Rep. Lincoln Davis has been pretty much assured a bumpy ride, thanks to Tennessee’s rapidly-reddening status. He got a new Republican challenger today, in the form of attorney Jack Bailey. It’s unclear whether the never-before-elected Bailey will be stronger than physician Scott DesJarlais (or can even get past him in the primary), but he’s a former Hill staffer (ex-CoS for Missouri Rep. Scott Akin) so he probably still has a full Rolodex for fundraising purposes.

• TN-08: State Sen. Roy Herron keeps looking like he’ll have an easy path to the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner. Former state Rep. Phillip Pinion, an oft-floated name, said he wouldn’t get into the race.

• OR-Init: Oregon voters have a chance to deal a major setback to the coalescing conventional wisdom that voters prefer service cuts to tax hikes to plug state budget gaps, with Measures 66 and 67. The state legislature passed raises in the $250,000-plus tax bracket and certain corporate income taxes, which are now subject to a people’s veto (via an all-mail special election with a deadline of Jan. 26). Well-regarded local pollster Tim Hibbitts, paid for by a coalition of local media, finds both measures passing: 52-39 for 66 and 50-40 on 67.

• Mayors: One other election result from last night: Jefferson Co. Commissioner William Bell defeated attorney Patrick Cooper in a runoff, to become Birmingham, Alabama’s new mayor, 54-46. Cooper had won the most votes in the general, but Bell seemed to consolidate previously-split African-American votes.

• Polltopia: One more interesting follow-up on the increasing democratization of polling (on the heels of yesterday’s piece by Mark Blumenthal): the Hill looks at the increasing move by groups like Firedoglake and the PCCC toward commissioning polls – and even has an anecdote about PPP’s Tom Jensen getting berated by a nameless Beltway person for broaching the unmentionable and polling potential alternatives to Harry Reid.

• Social media: At some point during the flurry of activity yesterday, Swing State Project shot past 1,000 Twitter followers (gaining more than 100 yesterday alone). Not a follower yet? Check us out. You can also receive SSP updates via Facebook, if you’re one of those Luddites who like to read things that are longer than 140 characters.

Not so fast, said the DCCC to the doomsayers:

At least 2 members who have been targets of an orchestrated GOP effort to goad them into retiring have told DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen they will run again over the past day. Spokespeople for Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO) and Tim Holden (D-PA) say the incumbents will seek another term. …

Meanwhile, other potentially vulnerable incumbents have also assured the DCCC they are staying put. Reps. Ben Chandler (D-KY), Jim Matheson (D-UT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) all told Dem leaders they would seek additional terms. A spokesperson for Rep. Lincoln Davis (D-TN) later said he will run for re-election as well.

Reid Wilson, who has done yeoman work tracking down retirement rumors, also reports that his sources say they expect Rick Boucher (VA-09) to run again. The GOP’s gung-ho attempts to goad various red-seat Dems into retirement may be having the opposite effect, if it’s pushing Dems to circle the wagons (and getting some competitive juices flowing again). In any event, this is some good pushback by Chris Van Hollen and the D-Trip.

Of course, there are still plenty of other names to be concerned about – our open seat watch still has several Democratic names on it, and several more have been the subject of recent rumors. I’m hoping, though, that some wobbly members of our caucus will take some cues from an old warhorse like Skelton and say to themselves, “If he can do it once more, then so can I.”

UPDATE: Maybe my theory is right:

Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) even publicly announced he’s definitely running again, and bashed Republicans for spreading rumors that he was thinking of stepping down.

“I don’t know why anyone would give credibility to these Republican rumors. I’m running for re-election and anyone who knows me knows that what I’m doing now is what I’ve always done,” Peterson said in a statement. “My paperwork is on file and in February I’ll make an official announcement.”

UPDATE No. 2: I’ve changed the title, in light of the extra information in the Politico piece, which notes that Earl Pomeroy has also told the DCCC he’s running again. (So has Paul Kanjorski, but Obama won his district handily.) Marion Berry is also expected to run again, according to the piece. So that’s seven red-seat yeses and two probablies (Boucher and Berry). Not bad for a day’s work.

• CA-10: Lt. Gov. John Garamendi’s candidacy for Ellen Tauscher’s old House seat received a boost this week from the editorial page of the San Francisco Chronicle.

• FL-Sen: The Corrine Brown for Senate exploratory train is chugging along, but Brown says that she’ll need to raise “several million dollars” to be seen as a legitimate contender. The longtime Democratic lawmaker says that she hopes to raise $500,000 by the end of September.

• FL-13: A man who claims that he was coerced by business associates into making illegal donations to GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan and the Florida Republican Party says that key evidence was stolen from his home earlier this month. Police are investigating the burglary, and have sent unidentified DNA evidence to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement for further analysis.

• IL-11: Joe Biden’s been on a tear lately, hosting fundraisers for vulnerable House Democrats as “part of a White House effort to safeguard about 70 House seats” targeted by the GOP. After helping out Florida Reps. Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas earlier this week, Amtrak Joe made an appearance at a luncheon fundraiser yesterday for Debbie Halvorson, who’s being challenged by upstart Iraq Vet and ex-McLean County Commissioner Adam Kinzinger.

• LA-Sen: When asked, by a constituent, why he favors prescription drug re-importation from “countries that have socialized medicine”, GOP Sen. David Vitter responded by saying that his goal was for re-importation to “implode” Canada’s cheaper perscription drug regime by swamping it with excess demand from the States. David Vitter sure is one breathtakingly cynical son of a bitch.

• NV-Sen, NV-01: Las Vegas Rep. Shelley Berkley says that she would “take a good look” at a run against disgraced GOP Sen. John Ensign in 2012, but she wouldn’t be eager to give up her safe seat and committee assignments in the House. Needless to say, if Ensign does try for a third term next cycle, I don’t think his non-aggression pact with Harry Reid can stop a serious Democratic opponent from emerging.

• NY-Lt. Gov: Bummer for David Paterson. A four-justice panel from the Second Judicial Department of the Appellate Division unanimously decided that his appointment of Richard Ravitch as the state’s Lt. Governor was unconstitutional. The panel did grant leave for the case to be argued before the Court of Appeals, but it’s not expected that Paterson will find that court, which is still dominated by Pataki appointees, to be a friendlier venue for his arguments.

• TN-04, TN-06: GOP Reps. Kevin McCarthy and Lynn Westmoreland touched down in Tennessee earlier this week to meet with prospective challengers to two Democratic incumbents in reddening seats, Lincoln Davis and Bart Gordon. Rutherford County Republican Chairwoman Lou Ann Zelenik and state Sen. Jim Tracy are both in the mix for challenging Gordon, with Zelenik, who lost a primary race for a state legislative seat last year, “seriously, seriously considering” the race. Already challenging Lincoln Davis is South Pittsburg physician Scott DesJarlais, whom McCarthy and Westmoreland met with in order to screen him for fleas.

• UT-Sen, UT-03: GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz says that he’s “focused on the House” for now, but that didn’t stop him from registering ChaffetzForSenate.com. The freshman Chaffetz, who hasn’t ruled out a challenge to incumbent Republican Sen. Bob Bennett, says that he merely reserved the domain name (as well as similar URLs for several other offices) as a precautionary measure against cyber-squatters, and will make an announcement on his 2010 plans “shortly after the new year”. It looks like ChaffetzForZoningBoard.com and ChaffetzForDogcatcher.com are still available, though.

• WI-Gov: Milwaukee’s Democratic mayor, Tom Barrett, who was recently assaulted by a creep with a tire iron after he attempted to break up a domestic dispute at the state fair, is still staying mum on the question of whether or not he’ll run for Governor next year.

• PA-Sen: Tom Ridge’s appearance on Hardball yesterday may have set a new bar for equivocation. He wouldn’t commit to whether or not he’d vote for would-be rival Pat Toomey in the GOP primary, instead veering off into extolling the virtues of the secret ballot. On the flipside, in a nice bit of symmetry, Arlen Specter told Fox News that he can’t promise to vote with the Dems “all the time” on procedural votes. So, the takeaway is: nobody’s promising anything.

• NY-Sen-B: Charles Schumer has ratcheted up his efforts to grease the wheels for Kirsten Gillibrand’s re-election path in 2010, hooking her up with donors, lobbying to get her on the good committees, and trying to tamp down possible primary challenges. “There is not going to be a primary!” he recently announced at a fundraiser (to the laughs of the audience… although I’m not sure whether the insiders were laughing due to his comic timing or the audacity and/or futility of his statement).

• IL-Sen: Roland Burris is starting to seem like that last guest at the party who isn’t getting the message that it’s time to go home. Burris says he would like to keep his Senate seat, but will have to make “a formal decision in the next few weeks based on his ability to raise money for a campaign.” With a total of $845 raised so far… well… you do the math.

• KY-Sen: One more Kentuckian is touring the state gauging potential support for the GOP Senate primary, which may or may not contain Jim Bunning. It’s Rand Paul, a doctor who’s never held elected office before but has one important ace in the hole: he’s the son of Rep. Ron Paul, which, if nothing else, establishes his liberatarian bona fides and gives him a nationwide fundraising base of fringe weirdo small donors.

• NM-Gov: Two new candidates have emerged as possible contenders for the Republican nomination for governor in the Land of Enchantment: former state GOP chair Allen Weh (who was intrumental in the firing of US Attorney David Iglesias), who opened an exploratory committee this week, and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who’s in the “considering” stage. National Guard Brig. Gen. Greg Zanetti is already in the race. This race could get more interesting if ex-Rep. Heather Wilson joined this paltry lot, but with the Dems already coalesced behind Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, the GOP is starting out in a hole here.

• CA-47: Remember how Bill Sali had his campaign HQ in the wrong district? GOP assemblyman Van Tran seems to be following in Rep. Brain Fade’s fine footsteps, at least in the map skills department. He kicked off his campaign with an event in the Little Saigon neighborhood in Westminster… in CA-46.

• CA-32: In the run-up to the May special election, state Sen. Gil Cedillo has turned his fire toward the race’s third wheel: Emanuel Pleitez. Pleitez, a 26-year-old up-and-comer who was part of the Obama transition team, threatens to eat into Cedillo’s share of the Latino vote (which he’ll need to dominate if he’s to beat Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu). Cedillo is sending flyers using photos grabbed from Pleitez’s Facebook page to make the case that he’s too young and immature for Congress.

• TN-04: A stem-winding progressive-sounding speech came from a very unlikely place: Blue Dog Rep. Lincoln Davis, holder of a newly-minted R+13 seat, speaking at last weekend’s Tennessee Democratic Party summit.

• Mayors: There’s another batch of big-city mayoral elections this Saturday, all in Texas. In San Antonio, 34-year-old former city councilor Julian Castro is favored to win. Castro finished second four years ago to Phil Hardberger, who’s now termed-out. In Austin, the best-known mayoral contender is Carole Strayhorn, who was mayor of Austin in the 1970s and ran for governor as an independent in the crazy 2006 gubernatorial election. Strayhorn, however, is probably too conservative for today’s Austin, and the frontrunner seems to be city councilor Brewster McCracken.

• Census: The state of New York is ponying up $2 million in state funding to bolster participation in the 2010 Census, mostly for outreach campaigns to traditionally undercounted populations. Assumedly, they think this money will pay much greater dividends later, if a more accurate count reveals more New Yorkers and thus brings in more federal funding for social programs.

• LA-Sen: In a tantalizing item, the Hotline teases that “The DSCC won’t let Rep. Melancon (D) alone.” Does this mean Melancon could be back in the recruiting crosshairs, despite previously saying he was “not contemplating a run”? The Hotline’s note is behind a subscription paywall; if you have access to it, please feel free to elaborate in comments.

Roll Call:

Tennessee Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) closed the door Thursday evening on the possibility of making a gubernatorial run in 2010, a move he had been considering.

In a statement, Davis cited his recent appointment to the Appropriations Committee as a key reason behind his decision.

At the very least, this means that Republicans won’t get to take an easy crack at Davis’ conservative TN-04 CD — its old PVI was R+3, but Obama absolutely cratered in the district, taking only 34% of the vote, compared to 41% for John Kerry in 2004 and a remarkable 49% for Al Gore in 2000.

With Davis keeping his perch in the House, the field is now clear for… well, Harold Ford, Jr., I guess. Another possible name who may be convinced to take a crack at the race is state Sen. Andy Berke.