Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 45
Rob Simmons (R): 40
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 51
Sam Caligiuri (R): 30
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 53
Larry Kudlow (R): 31
Ned Lamont (D): 30
Joe Lieberman (I-inc): 25
Jodi Rell (R): 42
Dick Blumenthal (D): 28
Joe Lieberman (I-inc): 25
Jodi Rell (R): 43
(MoE: 4%)
After the extended flap about what his role was in allowing payment of the AIG bonuses, conventional wisdom on Chris Dodd seemed to turn on a dime in the last week, as he suddenly went from being considered relatively safe to being considered a lame, if not dead, duck. Research 2000 acted quickly to get into the field in Connecticut and get the first post-AIG-gate poll of CT-Sen, and it looks like the CW may be overreacting a bit in sticking a fork in Dodd.
Dodd’s favorables are still in positive territory, clocking in at 47-40. Dodd is also beating all his GOP rivals, including ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (who edged Dodd out by a point in a recent but pre-AIG Quinnipiac poll) by a 5-point margin. He’s in the below-50% danger zone against Simmons though, and he’s also uncomfortably close to 50 against little-known state senator Sam Caligiuri. (R2K also polls CNBC bobblehead Larry Kudlow, who last night ruled out a run.)
While it looks like we can put the fork back in the drawer, Dodd’s position is still precarious enough that Swing State Project is downgrading CT-Sen to “Lean Democratic.” AIG might be starting to recede in the nation’s rear-view mirror, but in his position as the Senate’s lead Dem on banking issues, he’s in a highly-visible hot seat for any further Wall Street scandals and crises… and if his last week is any indication, he’s gotten kind of rusty at dodging incoming fire. Simmons also remains a popular figure with a lot of upside; his favorables are 41-18.
This poll’s also a two-fer, as we look ahead to 2012. The good news is: Joe Lieberman fares poorly against both AG Dick Blumenthal and 2006 candidate Ned Lamont, narrowly trailing each of them. The bad news is: this is a three-way race, and if Republican governor Jodi Rell decides to jump in, she beats all of them handily. (Rell has favorables in the Mother Theresa/Joan of Arc realm, at 71-20.) It’s way too early to tell if Rell is interested in taking this route, though, and she certainly shouldn’t be considered “generic R,” as there’s a pretty steep falloff to whatever else is on the GOP’s bench.