SurveyUSA (4/17-19, likely voters):
Jerry Moran (R): 39
Todd Tiahrt (R): 35
(MoE: ±4.8%)
With Kathleen Sebelius about to be confirmed as HHS Secretary, all the action in the Kansas senate race is in the GOP primary. Although it’s been a pretty low-key race so far, it’s definitely a continuation of the ongoing battle for the heart ‘n’ soul of the Kansas GOP, between the “moderate” business wing of the party and the religious conservatives.
Rep. Jerry Moran, playing for Team Main Street, currently holds an insignificant lead over Rep. Todd Tiahrt from Team Megachurch. (Interestingly, although he has the more moderate record, Moran represents much more conservative turf than Tiahrt: the rural KS-01 in the western half of the state, with a new PVI of R+23.) The only previous public poll of the primary (from R2K) had Tiahrt up slightly at 24-19, so at this point, it mostly seems to be a battle of name recognition, as each representative seems to play strongest in his own CD. In the crosstabs, Tiahrt leads 60-23 in the southeast, while Moran leads 62-26 in the west.
SurveyUSA also takes a look at the governor’s race — again, focusing only on the GOP primary, because no one has any idea who the Democratic candidate might be. Retiring senator Sam Brownback seems to have a lock on the race, defeating SoS Jerry Ron Thornburgh (who has also announced his candidacy) 64-17.