Here’s the list:
LA-07: Don Cravins
NV-02: Jill Derby
OH-02: Vic Wulsin
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper
VA-05: Tom Periello
VA-10: Judy Feder
MO-09: Winner of the August 5th primary
By and large, the DCCC is pressing into some very red turf with this round, showing even more aggressiveness. The full Red to Blue list to date can be found here.
Your thoughts?
The DCCC is rolling out their third wave of candidates included in their Red To Blue fundraising program today:
AK-AL: Ethan Berkowitz
AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-03: Bob Lord
CO-04: Betsy Markey
FL-21: Raul Martinez
FL-25: Joe Garcia
LA-04: Paul Carmouche
MD-01: Frank Kratovil
NM-01: Martin Heinrich
NM-02: Harry Teague
NV-03: Dina Titus
NY-13: Mike McMahon
VA-02: Glenn Nye
VA-11: Gerry Connolly
These additions swell the Red To Blue roster to 37 names, although the additions of Kirkpatrick, Titus, and Heinrich were previously announced. The full roster of Red To Blue candidates is available on the DCCC’s website.
The only mild surprise here for me is Frank Kratovil, who is up against far-right Republican Andy Harris in Maryland’s 1st CD, an R+9.8 district. I knew the DCCC would acknowledge this race as a pick-up opportunity, but I didn’t expect it to happen this soon.
The DCCC is also rolling out a new slate of 20 “Emerging Races”, a sort of “watch list” for future Red To Blue additions. Among them are Jill Derby (NV-02), Nick Leibham (CA-50), and Michael Skelly (TX-07). We’ll post the full list when we can.
UPDATE: Here’s the full list of “emerging races”:
AL-03: Josh Segall
CA-50: Nick Leibham
FL-09: John Dicks
FL-18: Annette Taddeo
IL-06: Jill Morgenthaler
IL-18: Colleen Callahan
IN-03: Mike Montagano
KY-02: David Boswell
MN-02: Steve Sarvi
MN-06: El Tinklenberg
NC-10: Dan Johnson
NJ-05: Dennis Shulman
NV-02: Jill Derby
OH-02: Vic Wulsin
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper
PA-06: Bob Roggio
PA-15: Sam Bennett
TX-07: Michael Skelly
VA-05: Tom Perriello
VA-10: Judy Feder
Well, it looks like Boehner is starting to take matters into his own hands and rectify some of Tom Cole’s incompetence.
More after the fold…
Full article from cq politics:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…
It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.
“ROMP 2008,” presently overseen by the political operation of House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio, was recently established in papers filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). These records identify the 10 newest recipients of the program’s assistance.
These candidates make up the first batch of ROMP candidates named this year, and the third since the current election cycle began in the 2007-08 cycle. The new recipients’ election contests are outlined below.
7/10 of the candidates were incumbents we ousted in the last election cycle.
• Michele Bachmann , Minnesota’s 6th District (North and east Twin Cities suburbs; St. Cloud). Bachmann was first elected in 2006 to succeed Republican Mark Kennedy, who lost his campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Amy Klobuchar . The Democratic nominee for November’s election will be either Bob Olson, a lawyer, or Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former state transportation commissioner. The latter candidate initially campaigned for the Democratic nomination in 2006 but later deferred to Patty Wetterling, a child safety advocate who lost to Bachmann after also losing as the Democratic nominee against Kennedy in 2004.
• Vito J. Fossella , New York’s 13th (Staten Island; part of southwest Brooklyn). Fossella is the only House Republican who represents part of New York City. He saw his re-election percentage drop from 70 percent in 2002 to 59 percent in 2004, and then again to 57 percent in 2006 even though Democratic challenger Steve Harrison didn’t raise much money. Harrison, a lawyer, is seeking a rematch, though he faces a well-funded primary opponent in New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia.
• Sam Graves , Missouri’s 6th (Northwest – St. Joseph, part of Kansas City). Graves’ campaign for a fifth term may well be the toughest of his career. His Democratic opponent, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes, is well-known and well-funded.
• Ric Keller , Florida’s 8th (Central – most of Orlando). Keller won a fourth term in 2006 by a 7 percentage-point margin over Democrat Charlie Stuart, a marketing executive who is one of several Democrats seeking the 2008 nomination.
• Anne M. Northup, Kentucky’s 3rd (Louisville Metro). Northup, who served in the House from 1997 through 2006, is challenging Democratic freshman Yarmuth, who unseated her by a margin of less than 3 percentage points. Northup hadn’t planned a bid to reclaim her seat this year, but she jumped in after the Republican she had been backing, lawyer Erwin Roberts, dropped out of the race to fulfill his military obligations. Northup sought a quick political comeback last year but lost a primary challenge to then-Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who subsequently lost the general election to Democrat Steve Beshear.
• Erik Paulsen, Minnesota’s 3rd (Hennepin County suburbs – Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth). Paulsen, a state representative, is the presumed Republican nominee in this suburban Minneapolis district, which retiring Republican Jim Ramstad is giving up after nine terms. The Democratic nominee will either be state Sen. Terri Bonoff or Ashwin Madia, a lawyer and Iraq War veteran.
• Bill Sali , Idaho’s 1st (West – Nampa, Panhandle, part of Boise). The strong Republican leanings of this district are indisputable, as President Bush took 68 percent of the vote there in his 2004 election. But Sali underperformed in his 2006 election for the then-open 1st District seat, in which he defeated Democrat Larry Grant by the underwhelming vote of 50 percent to 45 percent. Grant is seeking the 2008 Democratic nomination along with Walt Minnick, a businessman who lost as the party’s losing Senate nominee against Republican Larry E. Craig in 1996. Sali is opposed in the May 27 Republican primary election by Matt Salisbury, an Iraq War veteran.
• Jean Schmidt , Ohio’s 2nd (Eastern Cincinnati and suburbs; Portsmouth). Schmidt, who is seeking a second full term in a district that usually exhibits strong Republican leanings, faces a rematch of her exceptionally close 2006 race against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Schmidt won that contest by a margin of about 1 percentage point. In the primary elections that took place March 4, Schmidt was renominated with 57 percent of the Republican vote and Wulsin won with 58 percent on the Democratic side.
• Tim Walberg , Michigan’s 7th (South central – Battle Creek, Jackson). Walberg, a freshman, was elected in 2006 over Democrat Sharon Renier, a little-known and underfunded Democrat who lost by just 4 percentage points. The unexpectedly close outcome was influenced by a bitter Republican primary fight in which the very conservative Walberg unseated one-term GOP moderate Joe Schwarz. Renier is running again this year, though Democratic officials are rallying behind state Sen. Mark Schauer, a better-known and better-funded candidate.
• Darren White, New Mexico’s 1st (Central – Albuquerque). White is the sheriff of Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and which is the population base of a politically competitive district that Republican Heather A. Wilson left open to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. White is opposed in the June 3 primary by state Sen. Joseph Carraro. The four Democratic primary candidates are Michelle Grisham, a former state health secretary; Martin Heinrich, a former Albuquerque councilman; Robert L. Pidcock, a lawyer; and Rebecca Vigil-Giron, a former New Mexico Secretary of State.
Today, the DCCC unveiled the second wave of participants in its Red to Blue program. The 13 beneficiaries are:
Kay Barnes (MO-06)
Anne Barth (WV-02)
Darcy Burner (WA-08)
Robert Daskas (NV-03)
Steven Driehaus (OH-01)
Jim Himes (CT-04)
Christine Jennings (FL-13)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Gary Peters (MI-09)
Mark Schauer (MI-07)
Dan Seals (IL-10)
There are few surprises here, but the committee’s stamp of approval given to replacement candidate Anne Barth, who is running against incumbent GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in WV-02 seems indicative of the DCCC’s desire to bust open the 2008 playing field in a big way.
As I stated in my previous diary and numerous comments, I believe the Illinois 10th Congressional district is ripe for a flip. Mark Kirk has served as the representative for the district since 2000, and while he claims to be a moderate, his record is anything but moderate. In order to understand why this seat should be a prime target in 2008, it is first important to understand the district and its make up.
The Illinois 10th district covers a significant portion of Lake County in the northeast corner of the state and five townships on the north and northwest sides of Cook County (Cook County is the home to Chicago). The five communities in Cook County are Elk Grove, Northfield, New Trier (Wilmette, Glencoe & Winnetka), Palatine and Wheeling. Due to their proximity to the City of Chicago, the Cook County communities actually account for more votes than the Lake County townships (election data from Lake County and Cook County Clerk Websites).
| Year | Cook | Cook % | Lake | Lake % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 112,117 | 47% | 125,389 | 53% |
| 2002 | 105,847 | 57% | 81,064 | 43% |
| 2004 | 155,369 | 56% | 121,342 | 44% |
| 2006 | 114,754 | 57% | 87,453 | 43% |
More after the flip.
As you can see the Cook County townships represent about 57% of the vote, regardless of whether or not it’s a presidential election. In 2000, the make-up was exactly the opposite. Redistricting by the Republican controlled legislature added two Cook County Townships, Palatine and Elk Grove to the district. These two townships represent just under 10% of the total district vote counts in each of the last three elections and voting trends in those townships approaches 2:1 Republican to Democrat. Maybe when 2010 rolls around, the now Democratic controlled legislature can remove those townships (into either IL-6 or IL-9), but that doesn’t change the opportunity to pick this seat up.
Now that Mark Kirk has won 4 elections, one might assume his long-term incumbency status provides him ample protection but let’s take a closer look at those elections.
| Year | Dem Opponent | Dem % | Kirk % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Gash | 49% | 51% |
| 2002 | Perritt | 31% | 69% |
| 2004 | Goodman | 36% | 64% |
| 2006 | Seals | 47% | 53% |
To put his margins of victory into perspective, here is the money data from the FEC ($ Spent):
| Year | Dem Opponent | Dem $k | Kirk $k |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Gash | $1,967 | $2,030 |
| 2002 | Perritt | $ 473 | $1,436 |
| 2004 | Goodman | $ 89 | $1,654 |
| 2006 | Seals | $1,851 | $3,475 |
Based on the weakly funded challenges mounted by Hank Perritt and Lee Goodman, we should focus on the 2000 and 2006 races. In 2000, Lauren Beth Gash was a well recognized, popular state representative with the ability to raise funds in the district. A quick look at the results shows, she won Lake County, but lost Cook County.
| County | Total Votes | Gash % | Kirk % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook | 112,117 | 46% | 54% |
| Lake | 125,389 | 51% | 49% |
| Total | 237,506 | 49% | 51% |
Remember, this race was pre-redistricting, so there was more Democratic balance to Cook County to take advantage of. In fact, looking at the presidential results from the townships in the district, State Rep. Gash actually underperformed the Gore-Lieberman ticket by 5 percentage points (Gore won those townships 51-48%).
Looking at the 2006 race, Dan Seals saw pretty much the same story, except he barely lost Lake County instead of carrying it like Gash. Like her, Seals finished way behind in Cook County.
| County | Total Votes | Seals % | Kirk % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook | 114,754 | 45% | 55% |
| Lake | 87,453 | 49% | 51% |
| Total | 202,207 | 47% | 53% |
Seals proved to be an excellent fundraiser, especially considering his novice political status and zero name recognition. Again, a concern is he underperformed the 2004 presidential ticket by 5 percentage points in the Cook County Townships, just like Gash. But here is the good news (and why we need to target this seat).
1. Seals had the same Cook County results as Gash, despite the redistricting adding the heavily republican townships of Palatine and Elk Grove.
2. Kirk had to outspend Seals 2:1 (see above chart on spending) despite Seals lack of name recognition.
3. The DCCC only spent approximately $125,000
4. Kirk minority status will weaken his ability to bring home federal $ to the district.
5. Either Obama (even as a VP candidate) or native daughter Hillary Clinton (she’s from Park Ridge, IL) will energize Illinois Democrats in 2008.
6. Kirk has very little cash on hand left, only $105,000.
I am convinced these are all reasons that are falling in our favor to flip this seat in 2008, and why the DCCC should make this seat a top tier target. Of course, to make it a race, you need a top tier challenger and I have three candidates that would be great challengers. Dan Seals would be one. He can build on his effort from last year, and has proved he can raise money. He can raise a bunch more if he starts now, and have a sizeable war chest by the time the primary rolls around. My two other ideal candidates are our two local state senators in the district, Terry Link (ten years in the state senate) and Susan Garrett (4 years). They both have good name recognition, ties to the communities in both counties and support within the local party. I am unsure of their fundraising ability, and either one would have to prove their skill in that area to gain top tier target status.
IL-10 has real potential in 2008. After reading this, I hope you agree.