Tag: NE-02

I favor Democrats working to field the best possible candidate in every Congressional district and to mount the strongest possible campaign in each.  Hand-in-glove with that effort, Democrats also need to think ahead to and visualize success next election day and in future elections and to plan backwards in time from those successes to assure that all that needs to happen to assure those successes does happen.

So I am thinking about less than a handful of Congressional districts where Democrats should make exceptional efforts to take out Republican incumbents in 2010, both because a challenger could imaginably win and because the districts consist of territory that is important to a Democratic future.  These are the Iowa Fourth, the Nebraska Second, and the Ohio Twelfth.  These districts are respectively represented by Republicans Tom Latham of Ames, Lee Terry of Omaha, and Pat Tiberi of Columbus.  Barack Obama carried all three districts, and each district played a constructive role in his Electoral College margin.

And Latham, Terry, and Tiberi need to go.  

Today I looked at how interest groups evaluated the three, and (while, because of my haste in checking, I acknowledge certain limitations vis a vis timeliness as well as some potential for mistake) I believe I have identified several broad themes that tie the three men to each other.

Abortion.

On abortion Latham, Terry, and Tiberi support Planned Parenthood (http://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/) zero percent of the time and the National Right to Life Committee (http://www.nrlc.org/) one hundred percent of the time.

Czars of Financial Institutions.

On financial institutions Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have been one hundred percent for Financial Executives International (http://www.financialexecutives.org/eweb/startpage.aspx?site=_fei).

Energy and the Environment.

Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have at best very spotty records on energy and the environment.  Those records are perhaps best illustrated by zero percent scores on energy legislation supported by the Campaign for America’s Future (http://www.ourfuture.org/) and for supporting continuing dependence on fossil fuels as evidenced by 100 percent scores from the American Coalition for Ethanol (http://www.ethanol.org/).

Families and Children.

On family and children’s issues Latham, Terry, and Tiberi scored 100 percent with the American Family Association (http://www.afa.net/), but zero percent with American Family Voices (http://www.americanfamilyvoices.org/).

Guns.

On gun issues Latham, Terry, and Tiberi are rated “A” by the National Rifle Association (http://www.nrapvf.org/), but all get zeros from the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence (http://www.csgv.org/site/c.pmL5JnO7KzE/b.3509205/k.BDBC/Home.htm).

Health Care.

On health care Latham, Terry, and Tiberi get zeros from organizations like the American Public Health Association (http://www.apha.org/), the AIDS Action Council (http://www.aidsaction.org/), the American Nurses Association (http://www.nursingworld.org/), and the National Rural Health Association (http://www.ruralhealthweb.org/).

Justice.

On justice and the entire question of what kind of country we want to be, Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have scored zero with the ACLU (http://www.aclu.org/) and the Human Rights Campaign (http://www.hrc.org/), although I acknowledge that Latham recently moved up and delivered (for him) a very good year for peoples’ rights with eighteen percent from the ACLU and five percent from the Human Rights Campaign.

People Who Work for a Living.

As to labor, Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have received scores of one hundred percent from the Business-Industry Political Action Committee (http://www.bipac.org/page.asp?g=bipac_new&content=startpage) and of zero percent from organizations like the Communications Workers of America (http://www.cwa-union.org/), the United Food and Commercial Workers (http://www.ufcw.org/), and Workplace Fairness (http://www.workplacefairness.org/).  

Us v. Them.

On matters of us v. them Latham, Terry, and Tiberi scored zero with Citizens for Tax Justice (http://www.ctj.org/).

Conclusion.

I nominate the Iowa Fourth, the Nebraska Second, and the Ohio Twelfth for very early consideration by bloggers and internet activists thinking about 2010.

Here’s some good news from Nebraska: there are now more registered Democrats than Republicans in Douglas County (Omaha) for the first time since 1994. Incidentally, 1994 was the last year that the Omaha-based 2nd District had a Democratic representative in the House.

The raw numbers: there are now 125,602 Democrats to 122,955 Republicans in Douglas County (the entirety of which is in the 2nd Congressional District, currently held by GOP Rep. Lee Terry). That’s a big change from the start of the year, when Republicans held a 122,140 to 110,016 advantage. And it seems like this new energy is translating into a sizable early voting edge for Dems in Douglas County — where almost 50% of the early votes have been from registered Democrats, while only 36% have been from registered Republicans.

Now, this advantage isn’t going to hold though until election day, and Douglas isn’t the only county in the 2nd Congressional District (although, with about 80% of its population, it is certainly the most important) — there’s also Sarpy, a more conservative-leaning county that gave Terry a 26-point edge in 2006. But these numbers are another good sign that Democrat Jim Esch has a fighting chance to take this seat.

Just a few responses to comments from old topics that I missed while out of town.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Did Kanjorski do something bad?  If not, it seems that the only ones who need to go are Mahoney and Jefferson.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Well, granted, Negron ran a strong campaign, as I heard, and they had a really nice slogan for it too (“Punch Foley for Negron”).

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Do we have evidence about Anzalone-Liszt’s quality other than MS-01?

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

And make those funny EV rules actually worth something!

Also, some funny thoughts about Florida, in response to a comment whose location I forgot:

No one puts faith in Florida.  Here are the rules of dealing with Florida:

1. No one understands Florida.  It does not make sense.

2. Florida does not do what you want it to do.  However, if you expect it not to do what you want it to do, it will do what you want it to do.  But this therefore starts an endless cycle in which you expect it to do either what you want or what you don’t want.

3. Florida has the inexplicable quantum ability to exist in more than one state of affairs simultaneously, allowing statement #2 to be true.  Thus, it is possible to simultaneously win and lose an election.

4. No one puts faith in Florida.  If you do, you are dutily rewarded.  Al Gore put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a supreme court decision.  George W. Bush put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a Middle Eastern mess, a sinking economy, and the worst presidential disapproval ratings ever.  Christine Jennings put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with voting problems in Sarasota County.  Katherine Harris put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with a good ass-whupping courtesy of Bill Nelson.  Heck, I put my faith in Florida and I was rewarded with with classical music stations disappearing from the south Florida radio airwaves, and with Florida being called for Bush with 97% reporting in 2004.

5. Florida also has the ability to create votes from thin air and erase votes into thin air.  No one is ever sure of the numbers, absolute or relative, of each.  These numbers are not necessarily whole; Florida has a record of involving fractions of votes as well.

Anzalone Liszt (10/13-15, likely voters, July in parens):

Jim Esch (D): 46 (40)

Lee Terry (R-inc): 47 (50)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

And here are the Presidential numbers:

Barack Obama (D): 44 (42)

John McCain (R): 48 (46)

Undecided: 8 (12)

Wow. These are ground-shaking numbers. No wonder Lee Terry has been fishing so furiously for “Obama-Terry voters” — he might need a few to survive this November.

Terry’s favorables: 54-39 (down from 60-33), while Esch is at 51-30 (from 35-13 in July). Terry’s job approval rating has also taken a dive — from 60-34 in July to 53-43 today. With the DCCC currently pounding Terry on the airwaves, these numbers could fall even further.

Update: One thing that’s worth mentioning is the sample’s composition. This poll pegs the African-American vote at 4%, while the population of the 2nd District is 10.2% black according to the Almanac of American Politics. If those voters turn out, they could tip the balance here.

Partial crosstabs given exclusively to the Swing State Project are available below the fold.

Daily Kos released a pair of new House polls last night and today. Let’s take a look.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/6-8, likely voters):

Bob Lord (D): 39

John Shadegg (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±5%)

The last poll we saw of this race, from Anzalone Liszt showed a dead heat. R2K didn’t include the Libertarian candidate in its polling (an oversight), which Markos believes would have shaved off a point or two from Shadegg. In any case, Shadegg is under 50 and is currently weathering a series of big hits from both Lord and the DCCC (who have spent nearly $700K on this race so far). A recent Roll Call article takes note of some displeasure with Shadegg’s campaign by DC GOP insiders, so you have to wonder what their own internal polling is telling them.

But this is even more remarkable — check out the Presidential numbers in this district. McCain is only beating Obama by 50-39 here. Put that in perspective: This is an R+6.5 district that Bush carried by 58-41 in 2004. Despite having a homestate advantage, and Obama largely not contesting the state (at least, in terms of serious media buys), McCain is only hitting 50%. That’s pretty stunning, and possibly an ominous sign for Republicans like Tim Bee and Dave Schweikert, who were counting on some McNap coattails to carry them over the line in the 8th and 5th Districts.

And now for Nebraska. Research 2000 (10/6-8, likely voters):

Jim Esch (D): 39

Lee Terry (R-inc): 49

(MoE: ±5%)

Nothing especially strong for Lee Terry there (especially when you consider that this is an R+9 district), but also one that doesn’t seem to have budged much from Terry’s 55-45 win over Esch in 2006. In Esch’s favor, he’s getting the kind of help that he lacked last time: Obama has opened his third field office in Omaha just recently, and the DCCC has reserved $435K worth of ad time against Terry (although no ads have been aired yet, to the best of my knowledge). It would be nice if we could check in with this race with a few more polls in a couple of weeks.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 53-40 in this district.

Here’s a recent mailer sent out by the campaign of disingenuous, unaccomplished GOP Rep. Lee Terry:

You might recall Lee Terry’s almost-endorsement of Barack Obama earlier this year, when he said that his district was seeing a wave of “Obama-Terry voters”, whom he described as “people who want the right kind of change.”

Keep in mind that this is an R+9 district — although one that the Obama campaign is continuing to target and one where the DCCC has booked $435K worth of ad time. If Esch wins here, we’re talking about a big-time wave — it might still be unlikely, but it’s not nearly as far-fetched as it was a couple weeks ago.

Well, if there was any doubt about the competitiveness of Democrat Jim Esch’s race against unaccomplished GOP Rep. Lee Terry in Omaha, Nebraska, it should now be erased:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made a six-figure investment in television ads to air on Omaha stations between now and Election Day.

The ads are part of a campaign to boost Jim Esch in his race against incumbent Lee Terry.

“They wouldn’t be doing this is they didn’t think this was a race that could be won,” said Esch.

Public documents indicate that the DCCC bought nearly $200,000 in television ads. Committee records last month indicated that the party recognizes Esch as a strong candidate to take away a Republican seat.

Remember, this is an R+9 seat that Bush carried carried comfortably twice. However, the GOP’s grip on the seat showed signs of loosening in 2006, when Terry won by a surprising 55-45 margin against the underfunded Esch. With the Obama campaign on the ground in Omaha and targeting its lone electoral vote and the DCCC now on the air, Esch no longer has to go it alone. This is a pretty big deal.

The DCCC’s Stakeholder blog has more.  

Earlier in day, we noted that the DCCC added businessman Jim Esch (and seven others) to its Red to Blue program. Esch is making his second try against GOP Rep. Lee Terry in Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd District, which has a PVI of R+9.

This is an interesting race for a lot of reasons. Despite the lion’s share of the hype in 2006 being directed to Maxine Moul in Nebraska’s 1st and Scott Kleeb in the 3rd District, Esch came the closest to beating a Republican of all three Nebraska House candidates, falling short of Terry by 10% despite running a low-budget campaign. A poll from earlier this summer showed Terry leading by 47-38 — a similar 9-point margin, but under the 50% “vulnerability” threshold for incumbents. Even more interesting are the Presidential numbers in the district — that poll pegged McCain’s lead at a mere four points. It’s numbers like those that show you why Terry was mouthing off so loudly about “Obama-Terry voters” earlier this year.

I think it would take a big national win by Obama in order for him to pick off this electoral vote, and I don’t think that such a scenario is in the cards. But the effort is still being made, as evidenced by the Obama campaign setting up shop in Omaha on Wednesday:

“An Obama win in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is an important piece of our pathway to victory this Tuesday, November 4th,” said Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe. “By opening a Nebraska campaign headquarters – the first presidential campaign this cycle to do so – we are able to empower residents to join our grassroots movement for change.”

That event attracted 900 volunteers. However, it’s numbers like these that are the most interesting tea leaves of this election:

Figures from the Douglas County Election Commissioner’s Office show that almost 1,200 registered Democrats were added to county rolls in the past three months, compared with 53 for Republicans.

That was on top of strong Democratic registrations last winter. In February, for example, when Obama made a campaign stop in Omaha, Democrats registered more than double the number that Republicans registered.

The election office said it has a backlog of several thousand registration forms yet to process.

Karl Rove’s biggest success, and his longest-lasting contribution to the Republican Party, was his efforts to build the GOP’s base by activating conservative evangelical voters and making them aware of the stakes in the 2004 election. While Barack Obama’s ultimate fate this November is still very much up in the air, the numbers are pretty clear — in NE-02 and in key swing states around the nation — one party is growing their base, and the other is not.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

The phantom poll of Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd CD is now unmasked. SSP has obtained a copy of the poll’s internals, and we’ll share the top lines with you below.

Anzalone Liszt (7/27-8/2, likely voters):

Jim Esch (D): 38

Lee Terry (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4.0%)

In 2006, Jim Esch held Lee Terry, a five-term but largely unaccomplished congressman, to a surprisingly close 55-45 margin, despite running an underfunded campaign in an R+9 district. Judging by these numbers, if Esch can assemble more resources than the $400K he raised in 2006, he might be able to run an even closer race. Indeed, with only 48% name recognition (to Terry’s 93%), he clearly has room to grow.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats only trail Republicans by five points (42-37), which, all things considered, seems to be a dramatic turnaround from the 22 and 18-point drubbings that Bush delivered to Kerry and Gore here in 2004 and 2000, respectively. If Dems are ever going to make a breakthrough in Nebraska, you would figure that Omaha would be ground zero for their resurgence.

Here’s another key number from the poll:

Barack Obama (D): 42

John McCain (R): 46

Obama’s within striking distance of McCain, and if he can manage to win here, he’ll pick off a solid red electoral vote. I wouldn’t bet the bank on it, but the numbers clearly show you why Terry keeps on mouthing off about the surge of “Obama-Terry voters” in the district.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Over at the Lincoln Journal-Star, Don Walton buries this nugget in his latest column:

New 2nd District Democratic poll shows Barack Obama and John McCain virtually even in measurements of approval and disapproval.

The figures for Bush tip substantially toward disapproval.

That seems to point toward an effort to tie McCain securely to Bush as Obama seeks a presidential electoral vote in the metropolitan Omaha congressional district.

Jim Esch trailed Lee Terry by a single digit in the poll. (Emphasis added)

Unfortunately, the who, what, and when of this poll is still unknown, so take it with a grain of salt until we can find out more about this phantom poll.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.