Here are my sometimes arbitrary and always meaningless and premature picks for the 2009-2010 governor’s races. I’m seeing 7 Republican pickups, 6 Democratic pickups, and 1 Independent pickup of a Republican seat in RI. That would leave the governor distribution at 27D-22R-1I. I’m expecting substantial economic recovery, but still a fairly anti-incumbent mood.
PARTY SWITCHES
1. WY-OPEN – Simpson (R) over Generic D by 36 – I can’t imagine Freudenthal suing for a third term, but why doesn’t he just say so already? Otherwise, there is officially no hope.
2. KS-OPEN – Brownback (R) over Generic D by 33 – No significant D has stepped up. We will be asking, “What’s the matter with Kansas” more than ever with Brownback in charge.
3. RI-OPEN – Chafee (I) over Lynch (D) by 10 and Trillo (R) by 28 – Chafee’s partyless brand will play well in an anti-incumbent year.
4. HI-OPEN – Abercrombie (D) over Aiona (R) by 14 – Kos poll looks solid for Dems.
5. CA-OPEN – Brown (D) over Whitman (R) by 12 – Whitman will not be able to pick up enough D’s to make it all that competitive against Brown.
6. OK-OPEN – Fallin (R) over Edmondson (D) by 10 – Tough times for D’s in OK. PPP poll looks good for Fallin.
7. TN-OPEN – Wamp (R) over McWherter (D) by 9 – No polling, but D hold seems unlikely here given overall trends in the South. No top-notch D candidate has emerged.
8. VT-OPEN – Racine (D) over Dubie (R) by 9 – Third party candidate likely holds the margin down for Dubie, but D should win.
9. VA-OPEN – McDonnell (R) over Deeds (D) by 8 – Video of Deeds dodging tax question is going around. Pretty ugly stuff.
10. MN-OPEN – Rybak (D) over Haas (R) by 6 – Hope and expect that R.T. gets in. Seems like the strongest candidate in the running.
11. MI-OPEN – Cox (R) over Cherry (D) by 4 – Economically strapped Michigan gives strong Republican candidate a chance in the Statehouse.
12. FL-OPEN – Sink (D) over McCollum (R) by 3 – Sink a good candidate for Florida. Can win some of the panhandle/North Florida votes as well as traditional D areas.
13. CO-Ritter – McInnis (R) over Ritter (D) by 3 – Ritter pretty unpopular. Colorado still conservative enough to elect McInnis statewide.
14. AZ-Brewer* – Goddard (D) over Martin (R) by 2 – Goddard a very strong, well-known D in Arizona. Unpopular Brewer bows out or loses primary to State Treasurer Dean Martin. Hope PPP polls here next week. They were talking about it.
HOLDS
15. NJ-Corzine – Corzine (D) over Christie (R) by 1 – Christie numbers continue to go down, Daggett goes up. Just enough for Corzine win. See Franken v. Coleman.
16. PA-OPEN – Onorato (D) over Corbett (R) by 2 – Dogfight. Hopefully Onorato can find strong runningmate from Philly.
17. MA-Patrick – Patrick (D) over Cahill (I) by 3 and Baker (R) by 18 – R has no chance here. Battle is between Patrick and Cahill. Hopefully, economy will improve enough for Patrick to hold on. Plus Patrick has first rate operation with Plouffe.
18. SC-OPEN – McMaster (R) over Rex (D) by 5 – PPP polled this one 36-36. Rex a strong candidate. Republican lean carries McMaster to victory. SC demographics slowly trending blue.
19. GA-OPEN – Oxendine (R) over Barnes (D) by 5 -Barnes a very strong candidate. Again, Republican lean carries Oxendine.
20. WI-OPEN – Barrett (D) over Walker (R) by 7 – Superhero Barrett wins tough one through personal popularity in Milwaukee, which is also Walker’s base, and slight D lean of the state.
21. ME-OPEN – Mitchell (D) over Otten (R) by 8 – Wide open primaries on both sides. Otten’s money carries him to nomination. Senate President Mitchell is best candidate for D’s.
22. AL-OPEN – Byrne (R) over Davis (D) by 9 – Davis has a respectable showing, but comes up well short. It’s still Alabama.
23. IA-Culver – Culver (D) over Vander Plaats (R) by 10 – Branstad chickens out or loses primary to winger Vander Plaats. That’s the tougher part of the equation for Branstad given IA’s conservative Republican base. Culver holds on easily over the winger.
24. IL-Quinn – Quinn (D) over Brady (R) by 11 – Second tier Republican field here. Should not be much of a problem for Quinn.
25. OH-Strickland – Strickland (D) over Kasich (R) by 12 – Kasich is too conservative for Ohio. Strickland has done about as well as he can in this strapped state.
26. SD-OPEN – Knudson (R) over Heidepriem (D) by 13 – Decent D challenger, but it won’t be a D year and the state leans R.
27. MD-O’Malley – O’Malley (D) over Hogan (R) by 18 – Ehrlich will not run. Maryland has only gotten bluer, although O’Malley is not the most popular guy in the world.
28. NV-Gibbons* – Sandoval (R) over Reid (D) by 18 – What a wasted opportunity with Rory Reid. DGA apparently expecting no primary. For shame. Somebody save us from the double Reid!
29. OR-OPEN – Kitzhaber (D) over Atkinson (R) by 19 – Nobody beats Kitzhaber here. Great news that he is running.
30. NM-OPEN – Denish (D) over Martinez (R) by 20 – Denish polling strong against higher tier candidates – Pearce and Wilson – who aren’t running. Should beat Martinez.
31. AK-Parnell – Parnell (R) over Berkowitz (D) by 21 – Don’t know why so many top Dems trying for this one, but there are only so many places to move up in Alaska. Parnell popularity at 67-8 according to recent Hays poll.
32. CT-Rell – Rell (R) over Bysiewicz (D) by 24 – Decent challenger but Rell still too popular.
33. TX-Perry* – Hutchison (R) over Schieffer (D) by 26 – KBH narrowly beats Perry and crunches Schieffer by more than what Perry would have.
34. UT-Herbert – Herbert (R) over Generic D by 28 – No prominent D has stepped up. Overwhelming R lean of the state prevails.
35. ID-Otter – Otter (R) over Generic D by 31 – No significant D has stepped up. Otter probably not vulnerable if one did.
36. NH-Lynch – Lynch (D) over Generic R by 34 – Lynch cruises again.
37. NY-Paterson* – Cuomo (D) over Lazio (R) by 35 – Lazio humiliated out of politics. What the hell is Paterson doing, by the way?
38. AR-Beebe – Beebe (D) over Generic R by 37 – Beebe very, very popular in reddening state.
39. NE-Heineman – Heineman over Generic D by 41 – Smooth sailing for Heineman.