Tag: Research 2000

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/26-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Critz (D): 40

Tim Burns (R): 46

Undecided: 14

^{(MoE: ±4%)}

Things are looking tough for Democrats in the race to fill the late Jack Murtha’s House seat, with Research 2000 giving Republican Tim Burns his biggest lead yet. An earlier PPP poll showed him up three points, while interestingly, Burns’s own internal had him back one. Critz’s standing seems to be no fault of his own. He has similar favorables to Burns (44-33 vs. 46-40). The problem is simply that this is a bad district and a bad environment – a toxic combination.

Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district is a socially and culturally conservative place, the kind of area which has steadily been moving away from Democrats for quite some time. While much has been made of the fact that PA-12 was the only CD in the nation to flip from John Kerry to John McCain in 2008, that’s a pretty arbitrary metric. The real story is that it was one of just 35 CDs (out of 435) where Barack Obama got a smaller share of the vote than Kerry did. So while the nation as a whole was voting a whole lot more Democratic, PA-12 took a step in the other direction.

And it shows in two other key poll numbers. Obama’s approval in the district is just 38-55. Just as troubling, only 34% of voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports healthcare reform, while 48% are more likely to pull the lever for someone who advocates repeal. This helps explain why Critz has said he would have voted against HCR, but with this kind of headwind, that may not make much of a difference.

Both parties are seriously contesting this race – the DCCC has spent $472K so far, while the much less flush NRCC has matched them with $482K. Dems have also sent Joe Biden into the district to campaign for Critz. The election is a little over two weeks away (May 18), and undoubtedly it will be fought hard until the very end. But if Democrats’ streak winning special elections comes to an end, it may truly be a case of wrong place, wrong time.

Research 2000 (4/26-28, likely voters, 4/12-14 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (45)

Bill Halter (D): 35 (33)

Other: 7 (6)

Undecided: 15 (16)

(MoE: ±5%)

Halter has made a bit of an ascent over the past couple of weeks, pulling within single digits of Lincoln for the first time after previously stalling at a gap of 12 points. Pay close attention to that “Other” number, which presumably are the votes that tea-flavored Democrat D.C. Morrison is targeting. If no one wins 50% on May 18th, this sucker is going nuclear to a runoff on June 8th. In that event, this could be a race where time may be on Halter’s side.

And for the general election match-ups:

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

John Boozman (R): 52 (50)

Undecided: 6 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 47 (48)

Undecided: 13 (11)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (42)

Kim Hendren (R): 50 (49)

Undecided: 10 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

Curtis Coleman (R): 46 (46)

Undecided: 12 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 42 (41)

John Boozman (R): 47 (48)

Undecided: 11 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (43)

Gilbert Baker (R): 44 (45)

Undecided: 13 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (43)

Kim Hendren (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 12 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 41 (43)

Undecided: 16 (13)

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen also has some numbers that, while not looking anything quite like this, at least corroborate the idea that Halter is less of a general election liability than Lincoln.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/12-14, likely voters, 3/22-24 in parentheses):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45 (44)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (31)

Other: 6 (0)

Undecided: 16 (25)

(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (42)

John Boozman (R): 50 (49)

Undecided: 7 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (49)

Undecided: 11 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

Kim Hendren (R): 49 (48)

Undecided: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 46 (47)

Undecided: 11 (9)

Bill Halter (D): 41 (40)

John Boozman (R): 48 (48)

Undecided: 11 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Gilbert Baker (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 12 (10)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Kim Hendren (R): 46 (45)

Undecided: 11 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (45)

Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (44)

Undecided: 13 (11)

(MoE: ±4%)

There’s hardly any change here in the topline numbers from the R2K poll of Arkansas released last Friday, either in the primary, or especially in the general. (There were also Tom Cox matchups; I’m leaving them out, as he’s dropped out.) Undecideds are dropping in the primary, but the real gainer here is “other,” probably in the form of previously unknown conservadem D.C. Morrison.

The numbers to note in this poll are the approvals: Blanche Lincoln’s problem is that everyone has an opinion of her, and the majority of that is negative: 43/53. Bill Halter, by contrast, is at 47/30. 23% still haven’t formed an opinion of him, giving him room to grow. Lincoln, by contrast, has hit her ceiling and is upside down — not the conditions that get you re-elected.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Charles Djou (R): 32

Ed Case (D): 29

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 28

Other: 4

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±5%)

Thanks to Hawaii’s weird special election configuration where all parties are piled into one pool together, Republican Charles Djou seems to be in position to win by virtue of getting a small plurality in a three-way race rather than the usual majority. R2K’s poll closely tracks the leaked DCCC poll of the race (where it was 32 Djou, 32 Case, 27 Hanabusa), although it appears that the difficulties of polling in Hawaii hamstrung R2K, who say they had trouble getting a representative sample and had to settle for a higher margin of error than usual.

The race in HI-01 is starting to remind me of one of those Quentin Tarantino prisoner’s-dilemma standoffs where you have three guys standing in a triangle, all pointing guns at each other’s heads. In a perfect world, one Dem would back down, because the national party can’t afford the symbolism of a loss here (even though it’s a seat that they’d be likely to recover in November in a normal head-to-head race — simply because the media would be incapable of explaining the nuances of the loss beyond “OMG! Dems in disarray lose Barack Obama’s home district!”).

But neither Case nor Hanabusa is likely to get out of the special, because doing so would give the other the benefit of incumbency going into the regularly-scheduled September primary, when presumably they would want to face off against each other. Hanabusa, probably because of her role in the state legislature, has lower approvals than Case (37/31, vs. Case’s 47/25, which may explain why the DCCC wants her to be the one who walks the plank), but with her backing by the state’s unions and political machine, she probably feels she has little reason to get out… and maybe with her backers’ GOTV operations, she still has a good shot in a low-turnout affair.

UPDATE: Nice catch from Reid Wilson, illuminating what Markos was alluding to his in his own writeup: the sample’s racial composition is way off, as the sample is 33% white and 38% Asian, despite the district actually being 53% Asian and 19% white.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Fundraising numbers from all three are available now. Despite Case’s moneybags reputation, he’s being outpaced by both Djou and Hanabusa. Djou has the most cash on hand ($492K, compared with $329K for Hanabusa and $214K for Case), while Hanabusa has raised the most over the course of the cycle, but also spent the most (she’s raised $712K, compared with $692K for Djou and $349K for Case).

• CA-Sen: Russian law enforcement officers raided Hewlett-Packard’s Moscow offices today, as part of an investigation into whether HP paid millions in bribes to the Russian government to win a large contract. Why are we leading with this story today? Guess who was CEO of HP in 2003, when the contract was executed? That’s right… Carly Fiorina.

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck, the right-wing Weld County DA who’s become a fave of the teabagger set (to the extent that establishment GOPer Jane Norton isn’t even looking to compete at the activist-dominated state assembly), just received the endorsement of hard-right starmaker Jim DeMint. (Buck’s last quarter wasn’t that impressive, though: $219K raised, $417K CoH.)

• CT-Sen: Here’s an indication of the savvy investment skills that got Linda McMahon to the top. She revealed that she self-financed another $8 million this quarter, bringing her total self-funding all cycle to $14 million. (She also raised $37K from others.) What was the return on her gigantic investment? Now she’s down a mere 25-or-so points to a guy who speaks in 10-minute-long run-on sentences. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, who has to rely on the kindness of strangers instead, has seen his fundraising get drier in a post-Chris Dodd environment; he raised only $550K last quarter.

• IN-Sen: Here’s a big fat fundraising fail, although it may explain why he didn’t see any shame in missing the reporting deadline. Republican ex-Sen. Dan Coats’ comeback bid managed to pull in a whopping $379K last quarter. (He has $331K CoH.)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt is doubling down on the stingy: he reiterated his desire to repeal HCR, even the part about making sure that people with preexisting conditions are able to get coverage. He also lost another skirmish in the perception battle today, as Robin Carnahan narrowly outraised him for the first quarter, $1.5 million to $1.3 million.

• NH-Sen, NH-01: In the New Hampshire Senate race, Kelly Ayotte and Paul Hodes are pretty closely matched fundraising-wise: she raised $671K in Q1 with $1.3 million CoH, while he raised $665K with $1.7 million CoH. Ayotte’s GOP primary opponent, William Binnie, raised $400K from donors even though he’s mostly focused on self-funding; he’s sitting on $1.7 million CoH, despite having been advertising constantly. In the 1st, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, never much of a fundraiser, had a so-so quarter; she raised $168K and sits on $485K.

• NV-Sen: Although she’s been dwindling in the polls, don’t quite count out former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle yet. The Tea Party Express endorsed the one-time Club for Growth favorite in the GOP Senate primary.

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter continues to be the cash king in the Pennsylvania Senate race, now sitting on a $9 million warchest, but he was substantially outraised by Pat Toomey in the last quarter. Specter raised $1.1 million in the first quarter, half of Toomey’s haul.

• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: It’s strange we’ve been dropping the ball on mentioning this poll for almost a week now, as it’s good news for Democrats. Research 2000 polled the general election in the Georgia gubernatorial race, and found ex-Gov. Roy Barnes narrowly ahead in all three configurations. He leads expected GOP nominee Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, 45-42, ex-Rep. Nathan Deal 44-42, and ex-SoS Karen Handel 44-43. AG Thurbert Baker, if he somehow gets the Dem nod, loses 48-36 to Oxendine, 48-35 to Deal, and 49-35 to Handel. Over in the Senate race, GOP incumbent Johnny Isakson looks pretty safe: he beats Baker 50-34 and Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond 53-26 (not that either one is planning to run).

• ME-Gov: Good news for Dems turned into bad over the course of a few days; social conservative Michael Heath (former head of the Maine Family Policy Council) launched an independent bid earlier this week (which would only serve to hurt the GOP), then did an about face and pulled the plug on it today. There’s already one prominent indie candidate in the race, environmental lawyer Eliot Cutler, who seems poised to draw more from Dems than the GOP.

• OR-Gov: Here’s a camera-ready moment from last night’s debate between Democratic party candidates John Kitzhaber and Bill Bradbury at the University of Oregon. In response to calls of “is there a doctor in the house?” when an elderly audience member started having a seizure, Kitzhaber (a former emergency room doctor) hopped down from the podium, stabilized him, and once an ambulance had arrived, resumed debating.

• CA-03: Ami Bera continues to do well on the fundraising front; he raised $380K in the first quarter, and is sitting on $977K CoH as he prepares for a tough challenge to Republican Rep. Dan Lungren.

• DE-AL: We’re going to have a big-dollar race in the at-large seat in Delaware, which just had the entry of two different Republicans with the capacity to self-finance large sums. Democratic ex-LG John Carney is working hard to stay in the same ballpark; he raised $255K in the first quarter and sits on $675K.

• FL-08: Could we still see The Devil vs. Daniel Webster? Rep. Alan Grayson repelled the socially conservative former state Senator many months ago, forcing the NRCC to scramble to find a lesser replacement (businessman Bruce O’Donoghue seems to be their preferred pick, although state Rep. Kurt Kelly is also in the race). But now people close to Webster say he’s giving some consideration to getting back in the race (apparently undaunted by Grayson’s huge Q1 haul). Insiders seem to think that’s unlikely, though, given the late date.

• FL-19: Congratulations to our newest Democratic Congressperson, Rep. Ted Deutch. The winner of Tuesday’s special election was sworn in this afternoon.

• NY-01: The battle of the rich guys is on, in the GOP primary in the 1st. Facing well-connected Randy Altschuler, Chris Cox (son of state chair Ed Cox, and grandson of Richard Nixon) whipped out his own large balance sheet. He raised $735K for the quarter, and has $624K CoH. (Cox loaned himself $500K.)

• NY-20: Republican Chris Gibson seems to have finally locked down the GOP slot in the 20th, but he has a deep hole to dig his way out of, against Rep. Scott Murphy’s seven-digit warchest. Gibson raised $109K and has $92K CoH.

• OH-13: Wealthy car dealer Tom Ganley is moving even more of his own money into his uphill race against Rep. Betty Sutton. He loaned himself another $2 million (although apparently his cupboard was bare before he did so, as now his CoH is also $2 million). Sutton, seeming caught off-guard by Ganley’s entry, raised only $135K and is sitting on $281K.

• PA-06: Rep. Jim Gerlach raised $500K in his first quarter, after his belated decision to come back for his old job; he only has $335K CoH, though. Democratic opponent Doug Pike raised $225K but has $1.2 million CoH. (No word yet from his primary opponent, Manan Trivedi.)

• PA-07: Republican ex-US Attorney Pat Meehan continues to have a fundraising edge over Democratic state Rep. Bryan Lentz in the open seat in the 7th; Meehan raised $340K and has $855K CoH, while Lentz raised $235K and has $610K CoH.

• PA-08: Ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick put up showy numbers a few days ago in his quest to get his seat back, but Rep. Patrick Murphy surpassed Fitzpatrick’s $510K. Murphy raised $586K and has $1.3 million CoH.

• PA-11: Finally, in Pennsylvania, Rep. Paul Kanjorski had a decent quarter, raising $260K (less than Lou Barletta’s $300K, but Kanjo has a mammoth CoH advantage, sitting on $1.2 million. Kanjorski’s Democratic primary rival Corey O’Brien has quite the burn rate: he raised $115K this quarter, but has only $47K CoH.

• Teabaggers: The Tea Party Express also issued a full target list today (no gun sights on their districts, though), and as befits their role as the corporate arm of the teabaggers, their goals aren’t that much different from those of the NRSC and NRCC. Top targets are (with the odd toss-in exception of Barney Frank) just the usual names considered most likely to lose, making it easy for them to claim they claimed some scalps come November: Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln, Betsy Markey, Tom Perriello, and so on. They also list some heroes, and in the interest of bipartisan cover, they actually included a Democrat. In what’s not a surprise, it was ID-01’s Walt Minnick. (Wouldn’t it be ironic if their endorsement actually helped Minnick, likely to face a very close race this year, squeak by?) Also, on the teabagger front, Some Dude over at Salon looks at Tea Partier demographics and the roots of their resentments.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/5-7, likely voters, 7/6-8 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 43 (42)

Rob Portman (R): 39 (35)

Undecided: 18 (23)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 41 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 40 (36)

Undecided: 18 (24)

(MoE: ±4%)

Lee Fisher (D): 35 (22)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 26 (17)

Undecided: 39 (61)

(MoE: ±5%)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (44)

John Kasich: 40 (39)

Undecided: 15 (17)

(MoE: ±4%)

Things may finally be coming into focus in Ohio, according to R2K; while most polls of Ohio have been notable in terms of how few people were paying attention, it’s looking like people are starting to make up their minds with the May 4 primary now approaching. On the Senate side, the “no opinion”s for Lee Fisher (41/24 favorables), Jennifer Brunner (38/26), and Rob Portman (39/30) are all down into the 30s. Fisher leads Brunner in the Dem primary and also performs a tiny bit better against Portman, probably indicative of his huge financial edge — you can’t win an election with good intentions alone.

With Barack Obama (46/45) and Gov. Ted Strickland (47/41) seeming to be recovering a bit, and HCR tolerated by the public (43 support/37 repeal), Ohio (as also seen in the last Quinnipiac poll) may be starting to seem less-bad for the Dems right now than a number of other swing states. Strickland’s 45 is still ominous given that almost everyone has an opinion on him and he has little room to grow; both these races are poised to be very close, every-vote-counts affairs in November.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen | OH-Gov

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/29-31, likely voters):

John McCain (R-inc): 52

J.D. Hayworth (R): 37

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

Bruce Babbitt (D): 42

John McCain (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 10

Gabrielle Giffords (D): 34

John McCain (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 13

Rodney Glassman (D): 33

John McCain (R-inc): 52

Undecided: 15

Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 21

John McCain (R-inc): 57

Undecided: 22

Bruce Babbitt (D): 42

J.D. Hayworth (R): 43

Undecided: 15

Gabrielle Giffords (D): 36

J.D. Hayworth (R): 49

Undecided: 15

Rodney Glassman (D): 37

J.D. Hayworth (R): 48

Undecided: 15

Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 22

J.D. Hayworth (R): 53

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4%)

Steve Singiser already got there first with the “good news! for John McCain!” joke, so I suppose I’ll just play it straight. McMaverick is not only leading all Democratic opposition in the general election, but also defeating right-wing insurgent ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the primary by a 15-point margin (some other pollsters have shown it a closer race, in the 10-point ballpark).

Democrats have been increasingly intrigued by this race, out of the possibility that they might have a shot here if the odious Hayworth somehow wins the primary. This poll shows that Hayworth still wins the general (even against ex-Gov. and ex-Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt, probably the state’s most prominent Dem and not one who’s expressed any interest in returning to electoral politics), but Dems do poll much better against him. Most notably, their likeliest nominee, young Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman, loses to McCain by 19 to McCain but 11 to Hayworth. Glassman also fares slightly better than Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, so this should hopefully disabuse everyone of the idea that she should run (and thus open up her competitive seat in AZ-08).

Glassman still faces a possible primary against businesswoman and Democratic party insider Nan Stockholm Walden, who’s scoping out the race; Walden doesn’t fare well, but that’s because she’s virtually unknown, even compared with the little-known Glassman (her favorables are 11/3, while Glassman’s at 23/15… compare that with John McCain, at 47/46, with only 7% with no opinion).

RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-Sen

Tommy, can you hear me?

Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/22-24, likely voters):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48

Tommy Thompson (R): 44

Undecided: 8

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 52

Terrence Wall (R): 37

Undecided: 11

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 54

Dave Westlake (R): 36

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4%)

These results line up very well with the latest offering from PPP giving Feingold a 3-point edge on Thompson, pushing back a bit further against the recent WPRI and Rasmussen polls that have given T-Squared a slight lead.

Interestingly, in terms of their favorability ratings, R2K is kinder to both Feingold and Thompson; both men have nearly identical favorable scores (53-41 for Feingold and 53-42 for Thompson), whereas PPP had Thompson starting off this hypothetical race struggling to keep his head above water at 40-44 to Feingold’s 45-41.

RaceTracker Wiki: WI-Sen

Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/22-24, likely voters, 11/30-12/2/2009 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (42)

Bill Halter (D): 31 (26)

Undecided: 25 (32)

(MoE: ±5%)

That’s some nice early movement for Halter, and a clear indication of Lincoln’s vulnerability in the Democratic primary. Among Democrats, Halter’s favorable rating has shot up to 68-10 from 55-11, while Lincoln’s have remained relatively static at 62-34 (from 62-34 in December). Halter’s greatest argument in the primary, though, may be his stronger starting position in the general election. Among all likely voters, Halter’s favorable rating is 46-27 (up from 36-25) compared to Lincoln’s 42-52 spread. In fact, in most of the marquee general match-ups, Halter fares better than Lincoln:

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42

John Boozman (R): 49

Bill Halter (D): 40

John Boozman (R): 48

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (46)

Kim Hendren (R): 48 (30)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (36)

Kim Hendren (R): 45 (31)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 49 (42)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (34)

Gilbert Baker (R): 46 (42)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 47 (39)

Bill Halter (D): 45 (35)

Curtis Coleman (R): 44 (40)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (45)

Tom Cox (R): 47 (31)

Bill Halter (D): 45 (36)

Tom Cox (R): 43 (32)

(MoE: ±4%)

Markos writes that Halter’s outsider profile makes him “the best possible candidate Democrats can nominate in Arkansas”. I’m not yet sure that I’m entirely convinced that Halter is the best imaginable candidate for this race, but the arguments in favor of keeping Blanche for another crack at bat are getting more feeble by the day. Certainly Halter is worth the gamble at this point.

Meanwhile, my ex-boss The Sarge makes a good catch: Lincoln is trashing “Washington D.C. unions” for backing Halter, yet she aggressively courted the support of those very same unions just a few short months ago.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/22-24, likely voters, 2/16-18, 2009 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D): 51 (53)

Dave Reichert (R): 43 (40)

Undecided: 6 (7)

Patty Murray (D): 52

Dino Rossi (R): 41

Undecided: 7

Patty Murray (D): 54

Don Benton (R): 35

Undecided: 11

Patty Murray (D): 55

Paul Akers (R): 28

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.0%)

There’s been emerging conventional wisdom in the last couple months that Dino Rossi poses a threat to Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race, if he gets in. That seems to have entirely two pillars of support holding that up, though: a couple polls from Rasmussen, and another one from Portland-based Republican internal pollster Moore Insight. Research 2000 has a rather different take: Murray has an 11-point lead on Rossi, who, with a 47/47 favorable (thanks to the heavy exposure of losing two contentious gubernatorial races), really doesn’t have much more room for growth.

Rep. Dave Reichert (who’s generally well-liked and isn’t covered in two-time loser stank) is probably the GOP’s best bet in Washington, and even he comes up short against Murray — in fact, thanks to one-year-old trendlines, we can see there’s been only a small amount of erosion for Murray, either in the matchup against Reichert or in her favorables (52/41 now, 55/40 then), despite all the craziness of the last year. Murray also easily takes care of two of her actually announced GOP opponents, state Sen. Don Benton and businessman Paul Akers (the only candidate to have advertised so far).

RaceTracker: WA-Sen