I wish the SSP readers see the results of my work rating all the more important races this year.
The chart has a mathematical basis. I make this chart only with numerical rules what are the same for all the types of races (senate, gubernatorial, US House or statewide offices) and are the same for democrats and for republicans. The chart is totally symmetric, the rules are symmetric for both sides. That mean the chart is not biased by democratic or republican leanings. This is a goal for me.
For the numerical rules I take in consideration:
– The political level or strength of the people running for every office. Basically I take in consideration the political career of every one. Every level is traslated to numeric values.
– The political leaning of every district or state. Following the rates of the Cook Partisan Voting Index, and the same, every level is traslated to numeric values.
– The last four (as maximum) no-Rasmussen polls. The expected value of these polls is included too. Rasmussen polls are out for this rating chart because distort the numbers and the results.
– The possible incumbent unpopularity traslated to numeric values.
– The fundraising level of the candidates for every race updated to the last quarter data. I still need work few more this chapter because is so difficult have all the data. The effect of this area is less important, some times, for races in the limits of the groups can make change the rating.
– The rating for the Lieutenant Governor races what go in the same ticket than the Governor is linked to the rate for the gubernatorial race.
Well, this is my chart for rating 2010 races:
For read the chart:
– The chart takes the form of a mathematical matrix.
– They are five groups of offices (by row): Senate, Governor, US House, Lieutenant Governors what run with the governor, Statewide Offices including Lieutenant Governors what run separately.
– They are seven rating groups (by column): Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic, Leans Democratic, Toss-Up, Leans Republican, Likely republican, Safe Republican (like always).
– The color code talks about the party of the current or the last incumbent before the elections. Blue for offices with democratic offices, red for offices with republican officer and gray for new offices and independents (like C Crist now). The races what change of party in the cycle cause of special elections or incumbents switching party and still have another election in November are in two colors. Red-Blue mean the office change from republicans to democrats (like NY-23 or PA-Sen) and Blue-Red mean the office change from democrats to republicans (like HI-01 or AL-05). The same for combinations with gray.
– In every sub matrix (as example the US House race what are Toss-Up) they are four columns. Two are in blue and two are in red. The first (blue) is for the races with democratic incumbent running for reelection. The second (blue) is for the races open by democratic incumbents what run not or are defeated in the primaries. The third (red) is for the races open by republican incumbents what run not or are defeated in the primaries. And the fourth (red) is for the races with republican incumbent running for reelection. As exception, I include not the Safe Democratic races with democratic incumbent what switch not party and is running for reelection and I include not the Safe Republican races with republican incumbent what switch not party and is running for reelection.
– For the statewide races I use some generic names:
ND-LG = Race for Lieutenant Governor of North Dakota.
ND-AG = Race for North Dakota Attorney General.
ND-SS = Race for North Dakota Secretary of State.
ND-ST = Race for North Dakota State Treasurer.
ND-SA = Race for North Dakota State Auditor.
For others follow this example:
NM-PLC = Race for New Mexico Public Lands Commissioner.– For RI-Gov and FL-Sen races we have running highest level independents (L Chafee and C Crist, both former republicans). In the chart, the rate for RI-Gov race is not exactly Safe Democratic, the rate is Safe no-Republican. The rate for FL-Sen is Toss-Up for no-republican taking C Crist as a more democratic leaning candidate and Likely no-Democratic taking C Crist as more republican leaning candidate.
I include MA-Sen, VA-Gov, NJ-Gov, NJ-LG and VA-AG as Safe Republican for remember too these changes in the end of the cycle.
ANALYZING
For analyze the results of this chart is necessary take in consideration what all the rating is based in the current numbers for every race. This rating chart is more a picture of the current situation of every race than a prediction for the elections.
The chart is dynamic and goes changing (little changes habitually). As example, the last change for HI-01 after the special election.
The picture will move with the time cause of the work of both parties and all candidates. In the previous days to the elections I think the chart will give a picture what can be near to the final results.
The same numerical rules affect to all races, that mean all Toss-up are Toss-Up under the same conditions, and all Likely Democratic races are LiD under the same conditions. In this chart of rating is not possible change the rating for one race individually. I only can change the numerical rules what affects to all races, and the work in the races (new polls, fundraising events, new candidates running…) make some races can improve in the rating chart.
I like not see tons of Toss-Up in the rating charts, for that the numerical rules find a less number of Toss-Up but find at same time a symmetric balance. All the LeD races are Leans Democratic under symmetric conditions than the conditions for the Leans Republican races.
The chart shows not republican big waves in this moment. The chart shows some lose for democrats but the majorities in the Senate and the House are not in risk with current numbers. They are not numeric evidence of waves.
If republicans win the 50% of the Toss-Up races in this chart (and I think they will winn less) and all the worse rated races that would be the net results since now, for the end of the cycle:
Senate: Democratic Party would lose 3-4 senate seats in November.
Gubernatorial: Democratic Party would lose 0-1 governor offices in November.
US House: Democratic Party would lose 21 house seats in November.
LG linked to governors: Democratic Party would lose 1 LG linked to governor in November.
Statewide Offices: Democratic Party would lose 6-7 statewide offices in November.
Many Toss-Up races in this chart are winnable races. Maybe all. Some races what here appear as Toss-Up need polls because a poll can show democratic side favored, like in IL-08 or LA-02. The numbers show not still the failure of the republican candidate in IL-08 race.
The chart at same time shows what both big parties are forgetting a bit the statewide races. Some risks for work still, and some good chances in this group of races for state senators, mayors, and more decent level candidates.
I think some of the Leans Republican races in this rating chart are races for fight.
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