Tag: LA-Sen

Despite being caught kvetching like a major league douchebag at the Dulles airport a few days ago, it looks like the week is ending on a positive note for Diaper Dave Vitter, as yet another potential primary challenger has removed his name from consideration:

Family Research Council president Tony Perkins has decided not to challenge [Vitter] in next year’s Republican primary.

“I am grateful for those who’ve encouraged me to consider returning to elected office, but this is not the right time,” wrote Perkins in a letter to state party chairman Roger Villere. “Along those lines, I would like members of the State Central Committee to know that I support Senator David Vitter’s bid for reelection in 2010.”

With Perkins out, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne may be our last hope for a major R-on-R battle here… and somehow I suspect that the odds of such a cage match occurring are getting slimmer.

Meanwhile, for Team Blue, Cillizza brings up a new potential candidate whose name has escaped my notice until now: Baton Rouge-area state Sen. Rob Marionneaux.

Roll Call:

According to an HOH tipster who witnessed the scene, the Louisiana Republican arrived Thursday evening at his United Airlines gate 20 minutes before the plane was scheduled to depart, only to find the gate had already been closed. Undeterred, Vitter opened the door, setting off a security alarm and prompting an airline worker to warn him that entering the gate was forbidden.

Vitter, our spy said, gave the airline worker an earful, employing the timeworn “do-you-know-who-I-am” tirade that apparently grew quite heated.

That led to some back and forth, and the worker announced to the irritable Vitter that he was going to summon security.

Vitter, according to the witness, remained defiant, yelling that the employee could call the police if he wanted to and their supervisors, who, presumably, might be more impressed with his Senator’s pin.

But after talking a huffy big game, Vitter apparently thought better of pushing the confrontation any further. When the gate attendant left to find a security guard, Vitter turned tail and simply fled the scene.

Best snark in the comments wins a prize.

(Hat-tip: Taegan)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/2-4, registered voters):

Charlie Melancon (D): 41

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Don Cazayoux (D): 39

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Charlie Melancon (D): 40

Jay Dardenne (R): 49

Don Cazayoux (D): 38

Jay Dardenne (R): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

David Vitter (R-inc): 43

Jay Dardenne (R): 32

Stormy Daniels (R): 1

(MoE: ±5%)

David Vitter still seems to have an edge in his quest for re-election to his Louisiana senate seat, but it looks like he could have a rocky time of it in both the primary and the general. Vitter is polling below the 50% mark in each, and he has a lukewarm 49/42 favorable/unfavorable.

Vitter performs about the same against both Democrats polled (Rep. Charlie Melancon and ex-Rep. Don Cazayoux, neither of whom seem to be moving in the direction of running). Neither Melancon nor Cazayoux seems well-known outside their respective districts, so this is basically a test of “Generic D.” (Names that get talked up more as the eventual candidate include ex-Rep. Chris John, who lost to Vitter in 2004, and former Louisiana Democratic Party head Jim Bernhard, not that either of them are well-known, either.)

On the other hand, notice that Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne perfoms just as well as David Vitter, if slightly better. It may be that we’re seeing “Generic R” on the GOP side as well, and partisan lines are pretty hard-set (at least at this point, before people know much about the individual candidates). Dardenne is being talked up for the race by others, but publicly has been noncommital so far; out of all the favorables/unfavorables in this poll, Dardenne fares the best of anybody at 48/22.

Despite Dardenne’s favorables, Vitter beats Dardenne in the primary — not surprising, given how conservative the Louisiana GOP base is, and that Dardenne is something of a moderate figure while Vitter has been charging to the right. However, there’s a wild card here that wasn’t polled: Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins, who has made his interest in the race known. It would be interesting to see Perkins polled in this race, both whether the polarizing religious right talking head would fare worse than Vitter in the general, and his effect on the primary. It’s possible that in a 3-way primary, with Vitter and Perkins splitting the hard-right vote, Dardenne could sneak through with the support of what passes for moderates in Louisiana. (As you can see, the Stormy Daniels candidacy hasn’t aroused much interest yet, although I’m sure she won’t take that lying down.)

David Vitter continues to dodge bullets:

Late last week, former Rep. John Cooksey (R-La.) was reportedly interested in taking on Vitter in the primary. But the former 5th district Congressman announced Monday that he is not running, in a statement that included some nuance.

“While I do not always agree with David Vitter’s position on social issues, I believe David Vitter does a good job representing the people of Louisiana on fiscal matters,” Cooksey said in a statement to the Concordia Sentinel. “If David Vitter emerges as the Republican nominee in the 2010 Senate race in Louisiana, I will vote for him.”

I think we all know which “social issue” in particular Cooksey is referring to. In more good news for Vitter, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon says that he’s probably not going to run:

Despite the urging of state and national Democrats, local Congressman Charlie Melancon says that, at least for now, he has decided against running for the U.S. Senate in 2010. […]

“Never say never,” Melancon told The Courier Thursday, “but I’m not contemplating a run at this time.”

Democrats still have a number of other potential candidates on the table, including ex-Rep. Chris John and Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard. I remain convinced that Republicans have a more-than-good shot at retaining this seat, but we’ll have some raw data to look at soon: Daily Kos will release primary and general election polling numbers from Louisiana later this week.

Bayou Buzz:

In a breaking story, Bayoubuzz.com and The Louisiana Weekly have learned that a Campaign has begun to draft former Fifth District Congressman Dr. John Cooksey to run in the GOP primary against David Vitter in 2010.

Moreover, sources close to the Monroe Ophthalmologist say that the retired member of Congress is very interested.  So interested, in fact, that he is willing to commit a sizable portion of his personal savings to a campaign against the incumbent Republican Senator.  

“John is willing to put up $200,000 of his own money to take on Vitter.  He only wants to know that there is public support for a run,” said a senior advisor to the former Congressman-who asked not to be named.

200 G’s is not nothin’, but Cooksey will need to amass considerably more financial support in order to have a shot against Vitter in a primary. (Perhaps the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology may be willing to lend an assist to one of their own here.) Cooksey, a former Representative who served in the House for three terms, was last seen flaming out spectacularly in Louisiana’s 2002 Senate race after he compared turbans to diapers, winning only 14% in the multi-party primary.

So now we have Cooksey, Tony Perkins, and Secretary of State Jay Dardenne all sniffing around Vitter’s seat. Let’s just hope that someone can get off the pot soon.

(H/T: The Hill)

At this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tom McClintock and Gary Coleman show up to run in the Republican senate primary in Louisiana. So far, we have a potential challenge to David Vitter, a man who allegedly paid for sex, from Stormy Daniels, a woman whose career is based around being paid for sex. (If Mary Carey’s candidacy for governor of California is any indication, the Daniels candidacy shouldn’t be expected to get any serious traction, if it even becomes official. As a marketing ploy it might not even pencil out for her, if the anticipated revenues from increased sales of DVDs to curious constituents interested in learning more about her positions are exceeded by lost residuals from campaign advertising laws preventing her cinematic works from being shown on Louisiana cable systems.)

As of today, add a more legitimate potential challenger: Tony Perkins, prominent religious right talking head and current head of the Family Research Council. This is what Vitter was trying to head off with his recent moves to the hard right (taking on Clinton for SoS, for instance), but Perkins apparently still smells blood, today telling Politico that he’s “considering” the race.

“I don’t think he needs to say anything else about it, but I don’t think he can do anything else about it,” Perkins said. “Can people feel a sense of trust in him to publicly stand with him and support him and help him? Maybe he has [gotten to that point]. I know I still get some questions. I think he is certainly vulnerable [to] a challenge from the right – a candidate without issues.”

Perkins does have a background in elective politics: he lost the 2002 Senate primary and prior to that was a state representative in Louisiana, where he helped pass the state’s “covenant marriage” law which allows couples to opt into a marriage where divorce becomes more difficult. He also managed the failed 1996 Senate campaign for Woody Jenkins (last seen losing the LA-06 special to Don Cazayoux).

This is an extremely difficult race to handicap, since it’s still unclear who will be running (no Dems have stepped forward yet). It’s also unclear how the Republican base would split in the case of one of the nation’s most right-wing senators being challenged from the right: the breakdown may not be ideological as much as based on religion and region, as Vitter is a Catholic who used to represent New Orleans suburbs, while Perkins is from Baton Rouge and will play better among evangelical Protestants in the state’s north. (And don’t forget that while Louisiana threw out its traditional jungle primary for federal races, it still uses runoffs for primary races where no one hits 50%, and if there’s a third candidate a runoff may result.)

It’s tempting to say that a Democrat would have a better shot against the ostensibly more polarizing Perkins (with his links to the Council of Conservative Citizens and, via the Jenkins campaign, David Duke) than Vitter, but with Vitter’s travails, maybe not. And with Louisiana one of the few states trending away from the Democrats, they might not have much of a shot against either one.

Who should run against “Diaper” Dave Vitter in 2010?

OnMessage Inc. for John Kennedy (10/27-29, likely voters, 10/14-16 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 45 (47)

John Kennedy (R): 44 (42)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

A pollster we’re friendly with (who’s gone into the field in this race many times) sums this poll up in one word: bullshit. He thinks it’s likely juked to suck in a little last-minute PAC money and to ward off demoralization in the final weekend. YMMV, but don’t say we didn’t warn you.

UPDATE: A new Loyola University poll has different result (10/24-26, likely voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 49

John Kennedy (R): 34

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The same poll has McCain leading Obama by only 43-40, which seems a bit on the optimistic side.

Rasmussen (10/22, likely voters, 9/25 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 53 (54)

John Kennedy (R): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Kennedy is inching upward (and has been since August), but will it be enough? I seriously doubt it.

First they’re in, then they’re out, and now… they’re back in:

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has reversed an earlier decision to cancel its last two weeks of advertising in Louisiana. Instead, it has purchased TV time next week and will wait to decide whether to buy the final week before Election Day. The decision comes on the heels of GOP polling showing that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) has only a mid-single digit lead over challenger John Kennedy (R). Democrats dispute those numbers, arguing that Landrieu holds a substantial lead.

If the NRSC wishes to waste their money on Kennedy instead of Chambliss or McConnell, well, that’s fine by me.

UPDATE: Roll Call says the committee is placing a $500K buy for the next week, with no commitment yet for a second and final week of ads.

LATER UPDATE: Aside from the initial bad press that the NRSC gave Kennedy by pulling out in the first place, a late play like this one reminds me of the boneheaded move by the NRSC in 2006 to spend a million bucks against Debbie Stabenow in a last-minute ad buy when that money could have been funneled into Montana or Virginia instead.