Tag: LA-Sen

With the election less than 3 weeks away from us, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  So, I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain’t guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous September diary to see what things have changed since my last update.  Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Note: The RNC looks to be getting into the Senate races to prop up some of their candidates and keep Democrats from getting to 60 Senate seats.  If they decide to end up dropping a moneybomb into a particular race, then that can quickly change the dynamics I’ve written up below.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Move along.  Nothing to see here.  This is about as lopsided as you’re gonna get, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Outside groups like the Club for Growth had been pouring money into this state attacking Udall, and the polling had shown the race getting a bit closer.  But more recently, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead.  Pearce has not gotten above 41% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time.  The NRSC cancelled their TV advertising in this state last month, leaving Pearce and the 527s to fend for themselves.  Udall also still has a massive cash on hand advantage over Pearce.

3. Colorado (4): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’ll face off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  Schaffer has been known for his close ties to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands.  Right-wing groups had been attacking Udall with ridiculously false ads, which hurt his numbers, but recently the polls are showing Udall slowly but surely increasing his lead over Schaffer.  This has caused Schaffer’s campaign manager to start attacking the pollsters when their numbers are unfavorable to Schaffer.  That’s not a sign of a winning campaign.  To make things worse for Schaffer, those right-wing groups like Freedom’s Watch have now pulled out of the Colorado Senate race.

4. New Hampshire (3): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002 along with some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008.  General rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.  But he won’t go down easily, and the polls are starting to tighten a bit.  Sununu also still has a significant cash on hand advantage.  That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I’m not sure how much that money advantage will help Sununu.

5. North Carolina (5): Amazing.  The polls are showing a complete reversal of fortune starting in August.  Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling.  This, as Obama’s numbers similarly are growing in North Carolina.  The DSCC’s ads against Dole have been quite effective in framing a theme of ineffectiveness about Dole.  You even have Republican insiders say Dole is “virtually certain” to lose.  This has caused Dole to throw the kitchen sink in negative attack ads against Hagan.  Interesting fact, Hagan is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

6. Oregon (7): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R).  Smith seems worried, as his commercials have him embracing Barack Obama and John Kerry and Ted Kennedy and Ron Wyden (Oregon’s Democratic Senator) and fighting Bush!  Then, he turned from trying to prop up his own record to smearing Merkley with a misleading ad implying that Merkley is pro-rapist.  Stay classy, Gordon.  (It of course misrepresents what actually happened, and when it was introduced as a stand-alone bill, Merkley of course voted for the tougher penalties.)  Smith trying to tie himself to Democratic politicians has gotten so ridiculous that the DSCC has stepped in with a TV ad mocking Smith for doing so, and showing his real record.  This is probably because the polls now show Merkley pulling into a nice lead over Smith.  In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

7. Minnesota (8): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling has been friendlier to Al, with every poll taken in October now showing Al Franken in the lead, as Coleman’s own numbers keep falling.  Much of the fall seems to come from the impact of Independence Party (not to be confused with Alaska’s secessionist version) candidate Dean Barkley (who was appointed to the Senate when Wellstone died), who is pulling in a significant chunk of the vote.  And while Franken’s numbers have also fallen with some of his support going to Barkley, it seems that Coleman is losing even more support.  There’s also yet another story about Coleman getting lots of free stuff from yet another big GOP donor, which led to a bizarre press conference with Coleman’s aide repeateding the same rote denial sentence for three minutes straight.  In what seems like a McCain-like campaign stunt, Coleman has also just suspended all negative ads coming from his campaign, and is urging Franken to do the same.  Of course, the NRSC isn’t stopping its negative ads against Franken.

8. Alaska (6): 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but he has been indicted on 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp.  Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race.  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  Now while the polls had already shown Begich leading Stevens before the indictment, Stevens was still able to easily win his primary at the end of August, and combined with McCain’s Sarah Palin pick, the polls have suddenly gotten much friendlier to Stevens, and I don’t think it was from his primary win over some no-name challengers.  And to complicate matters, the federal prosecutor was somehow so incompetent that key pieces of evidence against Stevens were thrown out, greatly increasing Stevens’ chances of getting off scot free.  Non-partisan polling now shows Begich only up by 2 or 3 points, with Rasmussen actually showing Stevens having regained a slim lead.  Still, the incumbent Stevens is under the 50% mark.

9. Georgia (NR): Former state representative Jim Martin, the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, thankfully won the Democratic primary over DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones (see previous update as to why Jones would’ve been a horrible candidate).  Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin.  Early voting and African-American turnout may make a difference in this race, as well as the presence of the Libertarian Senate candidate, given that Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr is from Georgia, and will likely shave off some points from Chambliss’s right flank.  Martin, however, does not have much cash on hand.  Good news is the DSCC is going to be helping him out with TV ads against Chambliss.  Remember, Chambliss ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.

10. Kentucky (11): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million.  In just the last month, the polls have suddenly shown Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell.  The DSCC has responded by coming in to Lunsford’s aid also.

11. Mississippi-B (9): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  That’s the seat that Travis Childers (D) won in May.  That has to be a shot in the arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), though Wicker has shown himself to be a prolific fundraiser.  The latest polls still show this to be a pretty tight race, with Wicker slightly up but still under the 50% mark.  It may all come down to the African-American turnout in this state.  The 2004 exit polls showed they made up 34% of the electorate.  So if black turnout increases, that should benefit Musgrove.  And because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November.  That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi.  The GOP is worried about this race, as Governor Haley Barbour (R) tried to bury the race at the bottom of the ballot, even after the local county district races.  The problem is that Mississippi election law clearly states that races for national office are supposed to be at the top of the list.  This went all the way to the Mississippi Supreme Court, which asked Barbour nicely to follow the law, which he actually did!

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R).  But he just hasn’t seemed to be able to gain much traction.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent polls still have Collins at about a double-digit lead over Allen.

Texas: Netroots Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R).  State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  The few polls on this race (Rasmussen seems to be the only one polling it) show Cornyn slipping a little bit recently, though he’s still at the 50% mark.  The big problem for Noriega is still fundraising for a huge state like Texas, though an appearance from Bill Clinton should help.

Tier III

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom… ah… incident, it’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  The latest polls are not kind to LaRocco.  At this point, wild card independent rancher Rex Rammell won’t be anywhere near enough to help out LaRocco.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) is up against former Congressman Jim Slattery.  There had been high hopes for Slattery, but the polls have not been kind to him.  This is about to fall into safe territory, even with Slattery’s innovative new ad.

Louisiana (10): Mary Landrieu (D) was considered the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But the NRSC just pulled out of this race, leaving turncoat John Neely Kennedy (R, no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to fend for himself.  The sparse polling shows Landrieu still holding a sizable lead.  The Republican tilt of the state is the only thing keeping this race from falling even further into safe territory.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that didn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor.  The last two Rasmussen polls show Kleeb has gained ground, but that means he’s only down by 14 points instead of being down by over 25 points.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) is being challenged by state senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks.  They could not be farther apart when it comes to energy and environmental issues.  The latest polls show Rice has improved his numbers a bit.  Still, losing by 13 points instead of losing by over 20 points is still a loss, even if Rice almost matched Inhofe in Q3 fundraising.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 20 days to go.  These are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it.  🙂

“The Fix“:

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has decided to pull its television advertising out of Louisiana, a decision that drastically reduces the party’s chances at its lone takeover opportunity in this election cycle.

The ads, according to buy information obtained by The Fix, will end next Tuesday — two weeks before the Nov. 4 election between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and state Treasurer John Kennedy (R).

NRSC communications director Rebecca Fisher offered no comment when asked about the move to pull down the ads. […]

The NRSC’s decision to pull their resources out of the state makes Kennedy’s task significantly more difficult. Those familiar with the Kennedy campaign argue he will have enough resources to win the race but with Landrieu and the DSCC now pounding him on television it’s hard to see how the NRSC’s pull out as anything but bad news for Kennedy’s chances.

Remember how doomed Mary Landrieu was supposed to be this year? Remember how giddy Republicans were when Karl Rove himself poached turncoat Democrat John Kennedy to run against Landrieu? Remember when certain prognosticators called this race “a tossup all the way until election day”?

Looks like we can finally close the book on all of that.

Rasmussen (9/25, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 54 (56)

John Kennedy (R): 41 (39)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Landrieu delivers another kick in Kennedy’s short pants with this poll, which is always a joy to see. Kennedy is currently blitzing the airwaves with ads claiming that Landrieu is Louisiana’s “most liberal Senator in history”. Nothing seems to be sticking so far for Little John.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

UPDATE: Chad makes a good point:

For the second consecutive cycle… It appears that the most overrated GOP Senate candidate has the last name Kennedy.

So much for the republicans only shot at a Senate pickup this year.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Poll taken 9/25/08:

Landrieu (D) 54% (53)

Kennedy (R) 41% (37)

Favorables:

Landrieu (D) – 61/36

Kennedy (R) – 50/39

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Bonus find (LA-Pres):

McCain (R) 55%

Obama (D) 40%

Obama down only 15 actually seems to be good news.  If he can hold it to a 15 point loss in LA it should help us in places like LA-04 and LA-06.

 

Rasmussen (8/17, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/9 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 56 (51)

John Kennedy (R): 39 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Landrieu delivers a big kick in the pants to Kennedy in this poll, which is always fun to see. Since the last poll, Landrieu has blitzed the state with several ad buys, and these numbers may well be showing the effects of her cash advantage. On the other hand, Rasmussen doesn’t exactly have a clean record of not producing wild outliers, so it’s probably wise to wait for a confirmatory poll or two before anyone declares that Landrieu is enjoying a “bounce”.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

I posted this on daily kos last night. Please read it and let me know what you think.

Unfortunately, my home state of Louisiana is one of the few states that will probably shift ideologically towards the GOP this election cycle. I apologize to the other 49 states (even Utah). If I were Obama, I’d focus on GA or NC or MS.

But the idea that Sen. Mary Landrieu is vulnerable this cycle is untrue. Yes, she was first elected then reelected by the slimest of razor thin margins in ’96 and ’02, but she actually faced opponents then. John N. Kennedy, her “Republican” opponent is a joke. This is evidenced by the fact that he switched from DEM to GOP in an overwhelmingly DEM year. One may argue that Hurricane Katrina hurt her chances, but most African-American refugees moved either to Baton Rouge or Lafayette. (On a side note many who moved out of state to Houston were from St. Bernard Parish, a republican-dominated suburb.)

Also, most people don’t blame her for the government’s response. Indeed, she is seen as one, perhaps the only one, who gave her all to see Louisiana renewed. Most Louisianians, myself included, blame both Bush and then-Gov. Blanco. Quite a few blame Vitter for not having any gall to stand up to Bush. But few blame Mary.

And, last but not least, she has millions more than Kennedy to spend on this campaign. Even if the NRSC pumps $ into this race (i hope they do) it’ll be a waste. Don’t worry, Mary will win a 3rd term much more solidly than her first 2.

Part two: why Erik Fleming is a viable candidate in MS-A.

In 2006, Erik managed more than a third of the vote. I know what you’re thinking…he got beat 2:1 in a democratic year and he’s a viable candidate? But hear me out.

First, Sen. Obama’s coattails will greatly benefit Democrats in Mississippi. GOTV was not nearly as well organised in 2006 as it is now. Black voter registration drives will meet their goal of registering 100,000 new voters this cycle.

Second, Ronnie Musgrove’s coattails will help. The DSCC will be dumping $$$ into this state for Musrove, so why can’t they drop 50k for Fleming? He could do a lot with that money. Oh, and all this talk about Musgrove’s party ID not being on the special election ballot giving him an advantage is sillyness, as everyone in MS remembers his governorship. Everyone knows he’s a Democrat. (And, barring a macaca gaffe on his part, he will probably beat Sen. Wicker.) Studies show that people willing to vote for one party in a federal race are more willing to support that same party in other federal races. This only showed effect on down ballot, not the presidential level. Won’t help Obama much, but it could help Fleming.

Third, Fleming was totally unknown in 2006. His grass roots campaign was not enough, sadly. He was drastically outspent because he raised very little money (less than $45,000 for the whole cycle). Unfortunately, his pitiful fundraising abilities look to repeat this cycle unless you help him out.  But now he has gotten through one statewide race. He’ll win his second if we help him enough.

Fourth, Trent Lott, Fleming’s 06 opponent, was much more powerful in DC and much more popular in MS than Thad Cochrane. He was a tougher opponent. And Erik walked away with more than a third of the vote, a % that will only increase as GOTV efforts strengthen in the South. Cochrane gonna have to go sometime, why not now?

Fifth, he is a liberal. I know! A liberal in mississippi! Finally. He has relatively liberal social views, wants withdrawl from Iraq, and is against drilling in ANWR. See his website for all his views.

But, and this is the good bit, he is not seen as ‘tax and spend librul’ like Vivian Figures is in AL. He can paint himself as a moderate to conservative like Musgrove. Low name recognition is a good thing sometimes 🙂

So, please, if you were planning to give a few dollars to Landrieu to ensure her reelection, don’t. Instead, Donate to Erik Fleming!

And, most importantly of all, think positive.

Yes, MS-A is the longest of longshots, but we didn’t take Congress in aught six by thinking about what we couldn’t win. It’s called a 50 state strategy for a reason. Never say never.

Almost forgot, we have to get rid of Dollar Bill Jefferson in NOLA. Support Helena Moreno for LA-02!

So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens’ indictment dominating the Senate news, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain’t guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

(Just so you know, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.)

FYI, whenever I refer to fundraising numbers in the races, I’m using the latest numbers we know of, from the end of June 2008.  “Q2” refers to the period of April to June 2008, the most recent quarter that we have the fundraising numbers for.  Major hat tip to Senate Guru for putting all the numbers in an easy to read table format.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement.  Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating.  That’s freaking unheard of.  He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year.  Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore.  Not a single poll shows Gilmore getting even 40%.  Warner’s sitting on 20+ point leads.  And oh yeah, Warner also pulled in almost $3 million in Q2, while Gilmore raised less than $500K.  To top it off, Gilmore’s been burning through the little cash he got, and ended up with less than $117K left at the end of Q2, which was almost $5 million less than what Warner was sitting on.  This is about as lopsided as you’re gonna get, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly after Pete Domenici (R) announced his retirement.  Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years who ran for President in 1976.  Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s.  Rep. Steve Pearce (R) won a bitter GOP primary over Heather Wilson, ending her career in Congress.  So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation was running for this Senate seat!  The polling just keeps getting better and better for Udall, as he’s hit the 60% mark in several polls now. I wrote back in May that I expected to see a sort of “unity bounce” once the GOP primary was decided.  Instead, the opposite happened, and Udall’s numbers went up even more.  Combine this with Udall having over 5 times as much cash on hand as Pearce, and Udall would be number 1 on the list if it weren’t for Mark Warner.

3. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum.  Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race.  But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor?  Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 along with some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in every single poll taken in 2008.  The latest Rasmussen poll has her leading 50%-45%.  A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.  The only thing keeping this race from being tied at number 2 is that while Shaheen outraised Sununu in the first two quarters this year, Sununu still has almost $3 million more cash on hand than Shaheen has.  That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I’m not sure how much that money advantage is really going to help Sununu.

4. Alaska: 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but earlier this week, he was indicted on 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp.  This started when the FBI raided his home last June.  Several Veco executives have already pled guilty to bribing Ted’s son Ben, who was the former Alaska state senate president, with former Veco CEO Bill Allen having admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens.  Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race.  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  Even before the indictment, several polls had already shown Begich leading Stevens.  In the wake of the indictments, Rasmussen now has Begich leading Stevens 50%-37%.  Jury selection will begin on September 24, and Stevens wants the trial to take place before the election.  What remains to be seen is if he’ll survive the August 26th primary, and even if he does, if the Alaska GOP would try to replace him with someone else.  But Rasmussen also showed that among some of the other GOP challengers, Begich leads them by even bigger margins, so it’s unclear if that will help the GOP out.  On the fundraising side, Begich pulled in over $1 million in Q2, over a quarter million more than Stevens brought in, though Stevens still has twice as much cash on hand as Begich, though that may not help him now.

5. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate.  Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’ll face off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006.  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  At the end of Q2, Udall was sitting on an almost $4 million warchest, with Schaffer over $1 million behind.  Schaffer also has close ties to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands, and was helping out Aspect Energy push an oil deal that would hurt U.S.-Iraq policy.  Recently, though, some right-wing front groups have been running TV and radio ads filled with falsehoods attacking Udall.  That may explain why Rasmussen shows the race getting narrower, though Udall still leads.  The other polls still show Udall with some kind of lead (other than Quinnipiac, though its crosstabs make it look like they undersampled Democrats), and not a single poll has come out with Schaffer holding any kind of lead.  Update: 9News in Colorado went through one of those attack ads and found every single statement the ad made was misleading, false, or conflating opinion with fact.

6. Oregon: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) won a close primary over lawyer/activist Steve Novick to take on Gordon Smith (R).  The two quickly joined forces in a unity event to take on Smith.  Smith seems worried, as his recent commercials have him embracing Barack Obama and John Kerry and fighting Bush!  Merkley raised over half a million more than Smith did in Q2, but much of that was spent on the primary, and now Smith has almost $4 million more in his campaign war chest at the end of Q2.  The DSCC has stepped in with an $850,000 cable TV ad buy starting in September to help out Merkley.  Also, the latest Rasmussen poll now shows Merkley with a lead for the first time ever in any poll, at 43%-41%.  In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

7. Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won’t have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years.  Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he’s won elected office previously.  But that seat then went blue when Travis Childers (D) won it in May.  So things are changing even in Mississippi.  That has to be a shot in a arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D).  However, Wicker showed himself to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in over $2.5 million in Q1.  But in Q2, the two were almost even in fundraising, each raising a little over $800K.  The latest polls still show this to be a tight race, with Wicker slightly up.  It may all come down to the African-American turnout in this state.  The 2004 exit polls showed they made up 34% of the electorate.  The Rasmussen poll showing Wicker up by 6 seems to also have a 34% black breakdown in their sample.  So if black turnout increases, that should benefit Musgrove.  And because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November.  That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi.  As a result, Wicker went up with a TV ad back in May introducing himself to voters.

8. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The polls had been steadily favoring Franken, until late April when a story came out that Franken owed $70,000 in back taxes to 17 different states.  Now, it turns out that as a traveling comedian, having visited lots of states, he was supposed to pay taxes to those individual states, but paid them instead all to the states he had homes in.  Then the GOP hammered Franken for a Playboy article he wrote over a decade ago, calling it “juicy porn“.  As for the fallout, there are very conflicting stories.  SurveyUSA has Coleman up by double-digits, while Rasmussen has Franken up by 3.  However, the SurveyUSA poll shows Coleman’s best support comes from young people, which doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense.  Combined with their presidential poll, which shows Obama TIED with McCain among young voters, and something doesn’t quite make sense in their numbers.  The Senate poll also shows the electorate will be made up of 32% Republicans, only 33% Democrats, and 21% Independents.  It strangely leaves out 14% of the population.  So take that poll with a huge grain of salt.  Plus, Franken did outraise Coleman for three straight quarters until Q2, when they both raised over $2.3 million, with Coleman getting $50,000 more, though Coleman ended Q2 with $3 million more in his coffers.

9. North Carolina: After Kay Hagan easily won her primary in May, the polls showed a primary bump, with some polls even putting her ahead of incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R).  That led Dole to fire her campaign manager.  Then her campaign asked the DSCC and NRSC not to spend money on the race.  Um, isn’t that’s the whole point of those campaign committees?  However, since the primary bump, Dole’s lead has gone back to about 10 points.  But something to note about those polls, they all seem to underestimate the black turnout.  In 2004, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, while these polls have a sample that’s 22% or less black.  Conventional wisdom says black turnout will be significantly higher than in 2004, so keep that in mind.  Hagan’s been keeping pace in fundraising, pulling in 91% as much as Dole did in Q2, though Hagan still trails by a little over a 2:1 margin in cash on hand.  Interesting fact, Hagan is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

10. Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R).  But even though Maine is a blue state, he has an uphill climb.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent Rasmussen poll has some good news for Allen, with him only trailing Collins 49%-42%.  Allen’s fundraising was pretty strong in Q2, with both him and Collins netting a little over $1 million each, though he trails in cash on hand by $2 million.  The DSCC has now reserved $5 million for ad buys in the state.  And it will be needed, as the Maine newspapers suck at telling the truth about Collins.  I mean, really suck.  When they consistently let Maine GOP officials shill for Collins in letters to the editor without letting the readers know that fact, you know something’s up.

11. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But how endangered that really is remains to be seen.  She was still able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP.  Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Neely Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat.  (Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.)  As for how endangered Landrieu really is, well, there’s lots of conflicting data.  On the one hand, hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making the state more red than it used to be.  Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected.  On the other hand, Mary’s brother Mitch won the Lt. Governorship by an even bigger margin.  And the win by Don Cazayoux (D) in LA-06, a Republican district, may bode well for Landrieu.  Kennedy did outraise Landrieu in Q1, but she outraised him in Q2, and has almost $3 million more in cash on hand than he does.  All the non-Zogby polls show Landrieu ahead; the question is by how much.  A boost came to the Landrieu campaign when the Huffington Post obtained an NRSC memo from 2004 that attacked Kennedy when he ran for the Senate that year… as a Democrat.  After ripping him for being so wrong for Louisiana, they’re suddenly going to say he’s the right person for the job?

12. Texas: Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R).  State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  The biggest news this summer so far is probably the Big Bad John ad Cornyn’s people released, which drew mockery and laughter from just about everywhere.  Then the Texas Medical Association rescinded their endorsement of Cornyn after he and other GOP Senators blocked the Medicare bill that would have prevented 10% cuts in Medicare payments to doctors, and the American Medical Association said they were going to run ads against Senators like Cornyn who voted against it.  But no polls have been taken of this race since June, when Rasmussen showed Noriega down by 13, though Cornyn was under the 50% mark.  However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in Q1.  Noriega did better in Q2, raising almost $1 million, but Cornyn finished Q2 with over 10 times as much cash on hand.  And in a huge state like Texas, money will most definitely matter.  Unless some polls come out showing this is a closer race, this will remain in Tier II.  Update: And right after writing this, Rasmussen shows Noriega down by 10 points, with Cornyn under the 50% mark.  So I’ve moved it back to Tier I status.

13. Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats.  And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident.  But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo and State Auditor Crit Luallen both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford hasn’t exactly been a netroots favorite in the past, having ticked off a lot of Democrats in the past by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after he lost the primary to Chandler.  But it looks like Kentucky Democrats quickly unified behind Lunsford and are all pledging to do their part to defeat McConnell.  McConnell has a HUGE warchest of over $9 million, but Lunsford can afford to self-fund.  And this quote from Lunsford after winning the primary is nice to read.  “[McConnell is] going to spend millions of dollars trying to destroy my reputation.  But I don’t care how many names he’s going to call me, because in January he’s going to call me ‘Senator.'”  Well played, sir.  Things like that will help assuage the netroots.  Two recent polls show Lunsford behind by about 10 points.  Lunsford actually brought in more money in Q2, largely due to loaning himself $2.5 million to keep pace, but McConnell still has almost 7 times as much cash on hand.  But by keeping pace, if Lunsford can force McConnell (and his campaign coffers) to stay in Kentucky instead of going to help other Senators, that will only serve to benefit the other Democrats running for Senate.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom… ah… incident, it’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he was absolutely blitzkrieged in Q1, with Risch raising over 4 ½ times as much money as LaRocco raised, and again outraised in Q2, leaving Risch with over 4 times as much cash on hand as LaRocco.  A recent Research 2000 poll showed LaRocco down by 10 points, 42%-32%.  The wild card in this race may be independent rancher Rex Rammell, who despises Risch, and may be able to pull away some of Risch’s support.  Rammell actually outraised LaRocco, and has a little more cash on hand, and will spend that money attacking Risch.  There are also two other right-wing candidates on the ballot that will split the conservative vote even more.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R), known for covering up issues related to intelligence and domestic spying for Bush, looked to be coasting to an easy re-election until former Congressman Jim Slattery entered the racein mid-March.  Given that late start, he still managed to raise over $250,000 in just the first two weeks, and brought in a decent haul in Q2 also.  Rasmussen had given encouraging news in June, showing Slattery within single digits, but in July, their poll showed Slattery down by 27 points.  There are signs, however, that Roberts is nervous, as his people lashed out, attacking Slattery for criticizing the Iraq War, considering he voted for going to war with Iraq.  Except… the war he voted for was the FIRST Gulf War in 1991.  So… voting for that war makes you unable to criticize this war?  Um, OK, that’s some great Republican logic for you.  And then, they attacked Slattery for missing a lot of votes in his last year in Congress.  Why only that year?  Because that was the year Slattery was back in Kansas running for Governor.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling.  State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, is now the formal Democratic nominee, having won his primary last week by a 20-point margin.  Rice and Inhofe could not be farther apart when it comes to energy and environmental issues.  Rice pulled in decent fundraising numbers in Q2, but still trails Inhofe by over $1.7 million.  A Research 2000 poll from June showed Rice down by 22 points.  Those two factors would normally make this a Tier III race, but then came the news that veteran political operatives Geri Prado and Phil Singer have joined Rice’s staff.  Those two both worked on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and for the DSCC.

Tier III

Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) as the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).  But, Jeff Sessions does play a role in the Don Siegelman case.  And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes piece about Siegelman before it aired.  So if Sessions gets ensnared in this scandal, his seat may not be so safe.  And the prospect of that, which grows dimmer by the day, is the only thing keeping this from going into the “safe” category.

Georgia: A crowded field of relatively unknown Democratic challengers to Saxby Chambliss (R) didn’t seem to go anywhere, until former state representative Jim Martin entered the race in March.  Martin was the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, so he’s run a statewide race before.  And in just 12 days, Martin raised $346,675, which dropped a lot of jaws.  Martin would first have to get by DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, who is black and is depending on African-American turnout to win the primary runoff on August 5th.  Except… Jones voted for Bush… twice, still doesn’t know what to think about Iraq, and likes calling Democrats “losers”.  Way to, um, not endear yourself to the netroots.  The 3rd and 4th place finishers in the primary have already endorsed Martin in the runoff.  Remember, Chambliss ousted triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face.  If Martin bests Jones in the primary next Tuesday, I’ll move this up to Tier II, as polling shows Martin would at least be competitive, though he’d still be seriously behind in funds.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that doesn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor of the state.  Kleeb easily won his primary against Republican-turned-Democrat Tony Raimondo, but the polls show Kleeb still has quite a ways to go.  The last two Rasmussen polls show Kleeb down by over 25 points to Johanns.  The one bright spot was that Kleeb outraised Johanns in Q2, though he still trails in cash on hand by almost $800K.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) is running again, but as he is already 84 years old, his age is always going to be a concern.  His poll numbers also don’t look that good, but no New Jersey politician’s numbers ever look really good.  He easily beat back a primary challenge from Rep. Rob Andrews.  On the GOP side, it’s been a wild roller coaster ride as multiple candidates have been declaring, and then dropping out of the race, before they finally settled on former Congressman Dick Zimmer.  Blue Jersey has a wild recap of it all.

South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) is fully back at work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006.  His illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge or attack him.  And the polling shows Johnson may be the most popular Senator in the country, to boot.

Tennessee: Former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke entered the race in late February.  It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush.  Tuke has a little over a quarter million on hand, while Alexander has over three million.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)*

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

*South Carolina is now a safe seat, as Lindsey Graham easily won his primary in June, and Michael Cone ended up barely losing the Democratic primary by 0.6% to Bob Conley, a Republican-turned-Democrat who voted for Ron Paul in the South Carolina primary.

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand at the beginning of August.  Things can still change, people who only pay attention after Labor Day may shake things up, and we won’t know exactly what the national mood will be 3 months from now.  Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it.  🙂

Unlike Kennedy’s mediocre kickoff party, Landrieu has really put the campaign into high gear. She has been through more than one hundred small towns across Louisiana since the year began, and recently began a big campaign swing through Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Monroe, Shreveport, Alexandria, Lake Charles and New Orleans; every major metropolitan area in the state.

She’s beating Kennedy to the airwaves, with her first ad about to go up, and available for viewing on her website, http://www.marylandrieu.com. She also pulled out the endorsements of 68 mayors yesterday.

Adding to the excitement Baton Rouge Daily Advertiser poltical columnist John Maginnis wrote: “has made impressive inroads in the GOP strongholds of Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, where Republican elected officials laud her recovery efforts, and among business contributors who value her seniority in a largely junior delegation.” Confirming what Democrats have already said. He stated that Landrieu has criss-crossed the state announcing grants, and accepting endorsements, while Kennedy has not being much of anything but raising money. In short, the ground game is not even close at this point in time.

Let me give you the story on St. Tammany. St. Tammany parish is part ofthe suburban Northshore of New Orleans, it’s more affluent, white, and heavily Republican. It’s part of overwhelmingly Republican LA-01, which gave Bush 71% of the vote in 2004, and,with an estimated population of over 200,000 it compromises a full third of the districts population. Recently, the President of the Parish Police Jury, (like a county commission of sort, or county wide council that serves as the main governing body) Republican Kevin Davis endorsed Landrieu, citing her seniority and his personal experience working with her to get Katrina aid. At this kick off rally Mayson Foster, the mayor of Hammond, a port city of some 70,000, endorsed her, Candace Watkins, the Mayor of Covington, the small county seat, and the Parish accessor Patricia Core, all Republicans, endorsed Landrieu. The polling trends show more of the same, Landrieu is dominating in the entire New Orleans metro area, which includes much of the more conservative suburbs, she’s dominating in the Baton Rouge area, and she’s dominating as always in the Cajun, Bayou region of Charlie Melancon’s district. (By the way, pronounce that name Meh-laun-sawn, not Meh-lan-con, as I have heard it pronounced before). Kennedy is in the race because of huge leads in north Louisiana, where you’d think Landrieu and Obama were both the anti-Christ, (though Caddo and Rapides, the two most populous Parishes are trending Democratic, and heavy turnout among the black vote should ensure that both of these areas go Democratic, and then you also have some of the heavily black, rural counties, and a few traditionally Democratic areas that still vote that way), and an equally large lead in the southwest Acadiana area of Louisiana which has only grown more and more conservative as Lafayette’s population growth has been among the oil industry which has made a bunch of people very wealthy. A heavy black turnout here,and in Lake Charles and Opelousas would definitely help Landrieu. That’s why it’s good that Don Cravins Jr. is running, his presence and GOTV efforts drive even more voters to the polls.

Landrieu has gotten plenty of good press in the last week for rerouting 85 million dollars in Hurricane aid back to Louisiana, were in can be distributed to those storm refugees who are still in need of aid, and for announcing she had procured forty million dollars worth of funding for a biodiesel cellular plant in Jennings, La.

New Orleans Time-Picayune columnist Stephanie Grace wrote today that ‘Sen. Landrieu is in the strongest position of her career.’

In addition, I cannot wait for Landrieu to release the ad showing what Kennedy said just four years while endorsing John Kerry, namely that that the policies of George Bush  were “cold and mean” and that his tax policy was “nonsense on a stick.” He later criticized the eventual winner, David Vitter, as a lackey of the Bush administration. Of course that was then, that was before Bush’s most corrupt and high level associate, Karl Rove had a talk with him, that was when he was running a populist campaign to the left of the establishment Democrat, Rep. Chris John, this is now, when he’s running as a new found conservative Republican. I’m sure that Kennedy would lose support within right wing base, with its hatred of flip floppers, when they hear about his change in heart. Of course, that didn’t stop Vitter from becoming his best bud, though thankfully Vitter’s popular image is shattered at the moment, and he has no political capital to help Kennedy.

The good news from this, it shows that Kennedy’s political views are completely amendable to whatever is politically expediant. It shows that if he wins, once elected, the Democrats have a large majority and more to offer him than Republicans, that he would ditch them in a heartbeat. Kennedy’s unscrupulous, and will do whatever it takes to get himself more power in the short term.

Among the more ridiculous statements that Kennedy has made is that Landrieu’s endorsement of Obama embodies the liberalism of old Europe. One, liberalism in Europe didn’t turn out so bad, because those countries have surpassed in amny areasdue to the Bush administrations incompetence, and the deteriorating state of our national infrastructures due to lackof money and innovation. Two, even more importantly, the connection even sounds irrelevant, and I don’t even get it. Three, voters are not concerned with Europe, or who she endorsed, they are concerned with the issues and who is going to do more for them.

Louisiana has lost most of its seniority. It invested all its eggs in Republicans, and then they lost control of Congress and it’s most powerful Republican retired, and the second retired. Then Rep. Jefferson lost all power due to corruption, and Vitter is ranked 85th in the Senate power scale. Landrieu is 10th, and holds spots on the Armed Services Committee and Appropriations Committee, as well as twelve years of Seniority. That is another reason why most of the down state business interests, in Baton Rouge, and New Orleans, and even the very conservative suburbs of LA-01, are tactically supporting Landrieu. She has a conservative record for a Democrat, so they can swallow it, and they want the person that can get the most done for them, and three it helps build relationships with the national party, who, as the majoriity party, you want good connections with, it’s just smart politics. This was seen in the Louisiana Chamber of Commerce’s endorsement of Landrieu a few months ago.

Finally, analysts are starting to realize that the damage to the LA-DP due to Katrina and Rita is not cataclysmic as they predicted for years, all the while writing obits for every Democratic statewide office holder. There was still a large loss of voters, and that Landrieu is doing this well is amazing, but, the Democratic trends in LA-04, and LA-06, the Shreveport and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas, respectively, have helped the party and pundits predict Democrats could hold both seats. In addition, Rapides Parish, home of the Alexandria statistical metropolitan area, and which is located in LA-05, Rodney Alexander’s district, is growing more Democratic, in voter registration, and voting registration.

Here is a layout of voter Demographics in major Parishes:

In the LA-06 special election we were helped by the favorable voter registration Demographics in East Baton Rouge, and that is what is making the district trend Democratic. There is a ten point gender gap, 55-45 in the women’s favor, which only helps Democrats because as a whole women tend to have more sense than men, (maybe its because they don’t have the testosterone), and are therefore more Democratic, it’s 39% black, and the largest age group, at 28.3%, is the 18-34 group, likely due to the presence of LSU. And, nationwide, that group is the most liberal emergin voting bloc. The actual number of registered Democrats does really matter in Louisiana because the numbers are grossly inflated with heritage Democrats who never actually vote for Democrats, or only do so on rare occasion.

In LA-04, Caddo Parishes registration Demographics will be an enormous asset, and explain it’s Democratic trend. 57% of its 157 thousand registered voters are women, 42% are black, and 25.5% are in the 18-34 age demographic that has proven to be some ten points favorable to Democrats than other age groups, in most states at least.

Rapides Parish also has a large gender gap, of nearly eleven points. 55.4, to 44.4, in favor of woman. Intersting to see was that only 21,000 black voters, or 27% of total voters, were registered to vote. This is not even half of the black population, and that means there is room to grow here by getting more voters registered. 23.6% of voters are in the 18-34 voter Demographic.

There are some Democratic oasis’ in Kennedy’s stronghold in Acadiana. 73% of Evageline Parishes voters are registered Democrats, which, even in Louisiana, gives any Democratic candidate a solid edge among its 22 thousand voters. There are others, Point Coupee, Iberville, Red River, and the three Mississippi delta parishes in Northeast Louisiana which are all mostly black, East Caroll, Tensas, and Nachitidotches Parish, in central Louisiana, a very Democratic area.

The two Congressional districts that are trending Democratic, and look like they could both be in our hands, LA-04 and LA-06, are actually very much alike. There’s a 9-10 point gender gap, just like their largest parishes, and the 18-34 voter Demographic is easily the largest in both.

Doing well enough in those parishes and holding down his margins in others would keep his margins down in the rest of Louisiana. If she can almost win a Parish like St. Tammany, and dominate in conservative leaning Orleans suburb parishes like Jefferson and St. Bernard, she can win this election. So, the demographics of the state are not against her, especially as the more and more black voters have registered, which only helps because her family has always done really well within the black community, starting with here father who was the last white mayor of New Orleans, in 1978, partly due to the fact that years earlier, he was the only white state Representative to oppose a Southern Manifesto like bill supporting segregation, and was defeated in reelection because of it.

All in all, it’s been a pretty good week for Landrieu, and the poll doesn’t show it because it was commissioned before the week began.

P.S. Please vote in the poll. There’s no counter built in, so I use to see how many people read something. So, if you read this, please vote, so I can satisfy my own curiosity.

Rasmussen (7/9, likely voters) (5/28 in parentheses):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc.): 49 (47)

John Kennedy (R): 44 (44)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Mary Landrieu is holding steady against John N. Kennedy, although not outside the margin of error. (Rasmussen has started giving ‘alternate’ results if leaners are pushed, which gives her a slightly better-looking 51/45.) This despite the huge momentum that Kennedy got from his campaign kick-off event.

Bear in mind that this is the same sample that gave John McCain such a huge lead over Barack Obama, 54-34. This may be an overly Republican sample, or it may simply indicate a lot of ticket-splitting: only 67% of McCain’s voters say they’ll vote for Kennedy as well. (This reflects Landrieu’s conservative profile, as well as the symbolic power of the Landrieu dynasty and the porousness of political party boundaries in Louisiana).

Last year, following the governor’s race in Louisiana, I did an experiment where I applied the parish-by-parish percentages in the 2002 senate race to the parish-by-parish turnout numbers (which reflect post-Katrina demographics) in the 2007 gubernatorial election. Bottom line: Landrieu won, although it was close (about 50.5 to 49.5). The Louisiana demographics have changed, certainly, but not to the extent that it’s fatal for Landrieu, since a) a lot of white people left Louisiana, too (there was catastrophic storm damage in white areas like St. Bernard Parish too, which nearly emptied out), and b) a lot of African-Americans from New Orleans moved to Baton Rouge, Shreveport, or Lafayette.

Finally, another consideration is that people are returning to New Orleans at a fast clip. The Census Bureau just announced that New Orleans was the fastest-growing (by percentage) large city in the country in the period from July 2006-July 2007, gaining almost 30,000 people, or about 14%. It’s still less than 60% of its size pre-Katrina, but the people are returning (although there’s no way to measure whether the returnees are coming back from Houston and Atlanta, or from Baton Rouge and Shreveport, which would be less of an advantage).

H/t Safi.

Did the invitations get lost in the mail?

(H/T: Ryan)