Tag: LA

Previous diaries

Summary:

 KY has 6 reps: 4 R, 2 D

 LA has 7 reps: 6 R, 1 D

 ME has 2 reps: Both D

Possibly vulnerable:

 KY-02 (R) (just a bit)

 LA-02 (R) VERY vulnerable.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: KY-01

Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Ed Whitfeld (R)

VoteView 286

First elected 1994

2008 margin 64-36 over Heather Ryan

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents

Demographics  11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-02

Location Central KY, bordering IN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Brett Guthrie (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  1994

2008 margin 53-47 over David Boswell

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)

Assessment  Guthrie ran well behind McCain, not a good sign.  He may be a little bit vulnerable.

District: KY-03

Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering INmap

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative John Yarmuth (D)

VoteView 132.5

First elected  2006

2008 margin 59-41 over Anne Northup

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents  None confirmed.

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: KY-04

Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Geoff Davis (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  2004

2008 margin 63-37 over Michael Kelly

2006 margin 52-43

2004 margin 54-44

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents John Waltz (looks quite progressive)

Demographics  26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-05

Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Harold Rogers (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 321

First elected  1980

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 31-67

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents Jim Holbert

Demographics  An unusual district.  The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-06

Location Central KY, including Lexington map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Ben Chandler (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 211

First elected  2004

2008 margin 65-35 over John Larson

2006 margin 85-15 (vs. libertarian)

2004 margin 59-40

Obama margin 43-55

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Matt Lockett

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: LA-01

Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Steve Scalise (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 389

First elected  2007 (replacing Jindal)

2008 margin 66-34 over Jim Harlan

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 26-72

Bush margin 2004 71-29

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-02

Location New Orleans map

Cook PVI D + 25

Representative Anh Cao (R)

VoteView NA

First elected  2009 (replacing Jefferson)

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 75-23

Bush margin 2004 24-75

Current opponents None confirmed, but Cedric Richmond, who ran against Jefferson, is considering.  Any Democrat is likely to beat Cao.

Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)

Assessment  By far the most vulnerable candidate in any race.

District: LA-03

Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico map

Cook PVI R + 12

Representative Charlie Melancon (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 218

First elected  2004

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000

Obama margin 37-61

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  A very Republican district, but Melancon seems safe; but apparently he is really considering not running, as there are a whole slew of Democrats and Republicans thinking about running.  This bears watching.

District: LA-04

Location Western LA, bordering TX and AR, including Shreveportmap

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative John Fleming (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2009

2008 margin Beat Paul Carmouche by 356 votes

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents

Demographics  36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-05

Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Rodney Alexander (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 306

First elected  2002

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 59% (no runoff)

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-06

Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Bill Cassidy (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 48-40 over Don Cazayoux

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-57

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Cassidy ousted Cazayoux in a Democratic year; it will be tough to oust him, now, in an R + 10 district.

District: LA-07

Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Charles Boustany (R)

VoteView 301

First elected  2004

2008 margin 62-34 over Don Cravins

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 55-45 in runoff

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: ME-01

Location The southern part of ME, including Portland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Chellie Pingree (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 55-45 over Charles Summers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)

Assessment  Safe, Pingree won in an open race in 2008

District: ME-02

Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Michael Michaud (D)

VoteView 135.5

First elected  2002

2008 margin 67-33 over John Frary

2006 margin 61-31

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 46-52

Current opponents Jason Levesque

Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment  Safe

So much for the republicans only shot at a Senate pickup this year.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Poll taken 9/25/08:

Landrieu (D) 54% (53)

Kennedy (R) 41% (37)

Favorables:

Landrieu (D) – 61/36

Kennedy (R) – 50/39

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Bonus find (LA-Pres):

McCain (R) 55%

Obama (D) 40%

Obama down only 15 actually seems to be good news.  If he can hold it to a 15 point loss in LA it should help us in places like LA-04 and LA-06.

 

Kentucky has 6 representatives: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats

Filing deadline has passed, primary is May 20

Louisiana has 7 representatives: 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats

Filing deadline is July 11, primary is Sept 6

Maine has 2 representatives, both Democrats

Filing deadline is March 15, primary is June 10

District: KY-01

Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN.

Representative Ed Whitfield (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tom Barlow raised $100K to Whitfield’s $1 million, in 2004, Billy Cartwright raised little

Current opponents Heather Ryan (no site)

Demographics 11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-02

Location Central KY, bordering IN.

Representative Ron Lewis (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mike Weaver raised $900K to Lewis’ $2 million.  In 2004, Adam Smith raised little

Current opponents David Boswell and Reed Haire (no sites) will run, against Daniel London, Lewis’ chief of staff or Brett Guthrie

Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)

Assessment Superribbie gives KY-02 a vulnerability score of 87 – not very vulnerable, and I have to agree.

District: KY-03

Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering IN

Representative John Yarmuth (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 49-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Yarmuth ousted Anne Northup, while spending considerably less ($2.2 million to $3.4 million)

Current opponents Erwin Roberts and Daniel Seum, as well as Anne Northup

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Superribbie (link above) gives this a score of 103 – the 16th most vulnerable Democratic district. Assuming Northup wins, I think Yarmuth is favored – being the incumbent helps.

District: KY-04

Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV

Representative Geoff Davis (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 52-43

2004 margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Ken Lucas raised $1.5 million to Davis’ $4.2 million.  In 2004, Nick Clooney raised $1.5 million to Davis’ $3 million

Current opponents Michael Kelley

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-05

Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN

Representative Harold Rogers (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics An unusual district.  The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-06

Location Central KY, including Frankfort

Representative Ben Chandler (D)

First elected  2004 (special election)

2006 margin 85-15 (vs. a Libertarian)

2004 margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In the regular 2004 election, Tom Buford raised $137K to Chandler’s $1.6 million.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Although Superribbie’s vulnerability score here is pretty high (90, the 39th most vulnerable), I think he’s pretty safe. Of course, if no one runs, he’s totally safe

District: LA-01

Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie

Representative  None (Jindal is governor now)

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Gilda Reed and a bunch of Republicans

Demographics 19th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment LA has open elections, with everyone running at once (no primary first – or only a primary, whichever way you want to look at it).  This is a hugely Republican district, but there’s one Democrat running, and there might be a lot of Republicans…. who knows?

[[UPDATE]]

a commenter on dailyKos informs me that LA no longer has jungle primaries, so, this is a long shot

District: LA-02

Location New Orleans

Representative William Jefferson (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 57-43 in runoff

2004 margin 79-21

Bush margin 2004 24-75

Notes on opponents In 2006 Karen Carter raised $1.2 million, about the same as Jefferson.  

Current opponents You mean, besides himself?  The WIKI lists a lot of potential candidates.  

Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)

Assessment Safe for a Democrat, unless somehow Jefferson winds up on the ballot while in jail, or something.

District: LA-03

Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico

Representative Charlie Melancon (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin (in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000)

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Greg Romero raised $1.9 million to Melancon’s $2.6 million.  In 2004, Melancon ousted Tauzin, with each spending about $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Probably pretty safe

District: LA-04

Location Western LA, bordering TX and AK, including Shreveport

Representative Jim McCrery (R) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 57%  (no runoff)

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents none with money

Current opponents per the WIKI, the only declared Democrat is John Milkovich – his site does not inspire confidence, nor a great desiree to support him (DINO!). Others might run.

Demographics 36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)

Assessment This is a pickup possibility – superrribbie gives it a vulnerability of 99.  Will some good Democrat run?

District: LA-05

Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR

Representative Rodney Alexander (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 59% (no runoff)

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents In 2006, Gloria Hearns raised $150K to Alexander’s $1.2 million

Current opponents none declared

Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)

Assessment Long shot

District: LA-06

Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA

Representative None (Richard Baker (R) quit)

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents   Don Cazoyoux

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Who knows? Special election on March 8

District: LA-07

Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf

Representative Charles Boustany (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 55-45 in runoff

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents In 2004, Willie Mount raised $1.3 million to Boustany’s $2.8 million.

Current opponents No declared Democrat

Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)

Assessment long shot

District: ME-01

Location The southern part of ME, including Portland

Representative Tom Allen (D) retiring (for Senate run!)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-31

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, Charles Summers raised $500L to Allen’s $700 K; in 2006, Darlene Curley raised about $180K to Allen’s $650K

Current opponents Declared Democrats include:

Chellie Pingree

Michael Brennan

Mark Lawrence

Ethan Strimling

and

Adam Cote

Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)

Assessment Probably safe

District: ME-02

Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic

Representative Michael Michaud (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 58-39

Bush margin 2004 46-52

Notes on opponents In 2004, Brian Hamel raised $700K to Michaud’s $1.3 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment Safe