Tag: KY

Previous diaries

Summary:

 KY has 6 reps: 4 R, 2 D

 LA has 7 reps: 6 R, 1 D

 ME has 2 reps: Both D

Possibly vulnerable:

 KY-02 (R) (just a bit)

 LA-02 (R) VERY vulnerable.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: KY-01

Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Ed Whitfeld (R)

VoteView 286

First elected 1994

2008 margin 64-36 over Heather Ryan

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents

Demographics  11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-02

Location Central KY, bordering IN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Brett Guthrie (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  1994

2008 margin 53-47 over David Boswell

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)

Assessment  Guthrie ran well behind McCain, not a good sign.  He may be a little bit vulnerable.

District: KY-03

Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering INmap

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative John Yarmuth (D)

VoteView 132.5

First elected  2006

2008 margin 59-41 over Anne Northup

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents  None confirmed.

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: KY-04

Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Geoff Davis (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  2004

2008 margin 63-37 over Michael Kelly

2006 margin 52-43

2004 margin 54-44

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents John Waltz (looks quite progressive)

Demographics  26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-05

Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Harold Rogers (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 321

First elected  1980

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 31-67

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents Jim Holbert

Demographics  An unusual district.  The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-06

Location Central KY, including Lexington map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Ben Chandler (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 211

First elected  2004

2008 margin 65-35 over John Larson

2006 margin 85-15 (vs. libertarian)

2004 margin 59-40

Obama margin 43-55

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Matt Lockett

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: LA-01

Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Steve Scalise (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 389

First elected  2007 (replacing Jindal)

2008 margin 66-34 over Jim Harlan

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 26-72

Bush margin 2004 71-29

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-02

Location New Orleans map

Cook PVI D + 25

Representative Anh Cao (R)

VoteView NA

First elected  2009 (replacing Jefferson)

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 75-23

Bush margin 2004 24-75

Current opponents None confirmed, but Cedric Richmond, who ran against Jefferson, is considering.  Any Democrat is likely to beat Cao.

Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)

Assessment  By far the most vulnerable candidate in any race.

District: LA-03

Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico map

Cook PVI R + 12

Representative Charlie Melancon (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 218

First elected  2004

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000

Obama margin 37-61

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  A very Republican district, but Melancon seems safe; but apparently he is really considering not running, as there are a whole slew of Democrats and Republicans thinking about running.  This bears watching.

District: LA-04

Location Western LA, bordering TX and AR, including Shreveportmap

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative John Fleming (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2009

2008 margin Beat Paul Carmouche by 356 votes

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents

Demographics  36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-05

Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Rodney Alexander (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 306

First elected  2002

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 59% (no runoff)

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-06

Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Bill Cassidy (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 48-40 over Don Cazayoux

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-57

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Cassidy ousted Cazayoux in a Democratic year; it will be tough to oust him, now, in an R + 10 district.

District: LA-07

Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Charles Boustany (R)

VoteView 301

First elected  2004

2008 margin 62-34 over Don Cravins

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 55-45 in runoff

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: ME-01

Location The southern part of ME, including Portland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Chellie Pingree (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 55-45 over Charles Summers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)

Assessment  Safe, Pingree won in an open race in 2008

District: ME-02

Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Michael Michaud (D)

VoteView 135.5

First elected  2002

2008 margin 67-33 over John Frary

2006 margin 61-31

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 46-52

Current opponents Jason Levesque

Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment  Safe

Kentucky has 6 representatives: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats

Filing deadline has passed, primary is May 20

Louisiana has 7 representatives: 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats

Filing deadline is July 11, primary is Sept 6

Maine has 2 representatives, both Democrats

Filing deadline is March 15, primary is June 10

District: KY-01

Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN.

Representative Ed Whitfield (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tom Barlow raised $100K to Whitfield’s $1 million, in 2004, Billy Cartwright raised little

Current opponents Heather Ryan (no site)

Demographics 11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-02

Location Central KY, bordering IN.

Representative Ron Lewis (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mike Weaver raised $900K to Lewis’ $2 million.  In 2004, Adam Smith raised little

Current opponents David Boswell and Reed Haire (no sites) will run, against Daniel London, Lewis’ chief of staff or Brett Guthrie

Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)

Assessment Superribbie gives KY-02 a vulnerability score of 87 – not very vulnerable, and I have to agree.

District: KY-03

Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering IN

Representative John Yarmuth (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 49-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Yarmuth ousted Anne Northup, while spending considerably less ($2.2 million to $3.4 million)

Current opponents Erwin Roberts and Daniel Seum, as well as Anne Northup

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Superribbie (link above) gives this a score of 103 – the 16th most vulnerable Democratic district. Assuming Northup wins, I think Yarmuth is favored – being the incumbent helps.

District: KY-04

Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV

Representative Geoff Davis (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 52-43

2004 margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Ken Lucas raised $1.5 million to Davis’ $4.2 million.  In 2004, Nick Clooney raised $1.5 million to Davis’ $3 million

Current opponents Michael Kelley

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-05

Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN

Representative Harold Rogers (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics An unusual district.  The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-06

Location Central KY, including Frankfort

Representative Ben Chandler (D)

First elected  2004 (special election)

2006 margin 85-15 (vs. a Libertarian)

2004 margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In the regular 2004 election, Tom Buford raised $137K to Chandler’s $1.6 million.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Although Superribbie’s vulnerability score here is pretty high (90, the 39th most vulnerable), I think he’s pretty safe. Of course, if no one runs, he’s totally safe

District: LA-01

Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie

Representative  None (Jindal is governor now)

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Gilda Reed and a bunch of Republicans

Demographics 19th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment LA has open elections, with everyone running at once (no primary first – or only a primary, whichever way you want to look at it).  This is a hugely Republican district, but there’s one Democrat running, and there might be a lot of Republicans…. who knows?

[[UPDATE]]

a commenter on dailyKos informs me that LA no longer has jungle primaries, so, this is a long shot

District: LA-02

Location New Orleans

Representative William Jefferson (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 57-43 in runoff

2004 margin 79-21

Bush margin 2004 24-75

Notes on opponents In 2006 Karen Carter raised $1.2 million, about the same as Jefferson.  

Current opponents You mean, besides himself?  The WIKI lists a lot of potential candidates.  

Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)

Assessment Safe for a Democrat, unless somehow Jefferson winds up on the ballot while in jail, or something.

District: LA-03

Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico

Representative Charlie Melancon (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin (in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000)

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Greg Romero raised $1.9 million to Melancon’s $2.6 million.  In 2004, Melancon ousted Tauzin, with each spending about $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Probably pretty safe

District: LA-04

Location Western LA, bordering TX and AK, including Shreveport

Representative Jim McCrery (R) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 57%  (no runoff)

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents none with money

Current opponents per the WIKI, the only declared Democrat is John Milkovich – his site does not inspire confidence, nor a great desiree to support him (DINO!). Others might run.

Demographics 36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)

Assessment This is a pickup possibility – superrribbie gives it a vulnerability of 99.  Will some good Democrat run?

District: LA-05

Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR

Representative Rodney Alexander (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 59% (no runoff)

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents In 2006, Gloria Hearns raised $150K to Alexander’s $1.2 million

Current opponents none declared

Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)

Assessment Long shot

District: LA-06

Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA

Representative None (Richard Baker (R) quit)

First elected  NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents   Don Cazoyoux

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Who knows? Special election on March 8

District: LA-07

Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf

Representative Charles Boustany (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 55-45 in runoff

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents In 2004, Willie Mount raised $1.3 million to Boustany’s $2.8 million.

Current opponents No declared Democrat

Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)

Assessment long shot

District: ME-01

Location The southern part of ME, including Portland

Representative Tom Allen (D) retiring (for Senate run!)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-31

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, Charles Summers raised $500L to Allen’s $700 K; in 2006, Darlene Curley raised about $180K to Allen’s $650K

Current opponents Declared Democrats include:

Chellie Pingree

Michael Brennan

Mark Lawrence

Ethan Strimling

and

Adam Cote

Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)

Assessment Probably safe

District: ME-02

Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic

Representative Michael Michaud (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 58-39

Bush margin 2004 46-52

Notes on opponents In 2004, Brian Hamel raised $700K to Michaud’s $1.3 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment Safe

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

The People-Powered Candidate of 2008. The Jim Webb of 2008. The man that will finally take out Senator Mitch McConnell.

I give you the next Senator from KY: Lt. Col. Andrew Horne.

For Immediate Release Contact: Susan Dixen

Thursday, December 13, 2007 502.759.0772

ANDREW HORNE ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR U.S. SENATE IN KENTUCKY

“I’m running for U.S. Senate because it’s time for a change and because Senator Mitch McConnell is more than part of the problem. He is the problem,” said Andrew Horne

Louisville, KY – Lt. Colonel Andrew Horne (Ret.) launched his campaign today to take back the U. S. Senate seat for the people of Kentucky, now held by Mitch McConnell. Horne, while a Marine and Reservist, served tours of duty Desert Storm and recently in Iraq. Horne outlined his decision to run and what he plans to focus on as Senator in a video released on the internet this morning.

You can watch the video at AndrewHorne.org. The full text of it available on the site, as well.

“I’m running for U.S. Senate because it’s time for a change and because Senator Mitch McConnell is more than part of the problem. He IS the problem. It is time for Kentuckians to take our government and country back. We should not be told to take a backseat to the wealthy and powerful. It’s time to tackle the challenges facing our country instead of passing them off to our kids. It’s time for leaders who’ll take the right stand,” Horne says in the video.

“Mitch McConnell, the Republican Leader, symbolizes everything wrong with Washington. He bows to big business, practices the worst kind of politics, and doesn’t take a stand when faced with tough issues. Simply put: Mitch McConnell carries George Bush’s water on Iraq; I carried a rifle in Iraq” he added.

Horne noted that under the Bush-McConnell regime, Washington politicians have:

   *

     failed to fix our health care crisis;

   *

     sendt our jobs to China and Mexico;

   *

     failed to lead on immigration reform;

   *

     ran up a nine trillion dollar debt for our children, and

   *

     led our country into an ill-conceived and mismanaged war in Iraq.

Horne also noted yesterday that the Bush-McConnell obstructionism has continued to hinder progress, pointing to the latest example, the President’s veto of S-Chip fully supported by McConnell.

In the coming weeks and months, Horne will lay out his proposals to benefit the people of the commonwealth.

ABOUT ANDREW HORNE

Andrew Horne was born to working, middle-class parents, who for 30 years owned and operated a series of small businesses in Louisville, including Horne Cleaners and Clubfit International, a golf equipment and supply store. Just before graduating from Pleasure Ridge Park High School, he enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve and, soon after commencement, headed to Parris Island, S.C. for boot camp.  Horne worked his way through the University of Louisville, and in 1983 became the first in his family to graduate from college.  He later earned a degree from University of Louisville’s Brandeis School of Law, after fulfilling his six-year active duty contract with the Marines.

After tours overseas in both operations Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom, Horne retired this year from the Marines as a lieutenant colonel.

Horne, his wife Stephanie, and their two children are members of Louisville’s Christ Church United Methodist, where he’s taught Sunday School. Horne serves as the spokesperson for the Brain Injury Association of Kentucky, leading the Wounded Warriors program which provides resources and relief to those suffering from this “signature” wound of the Iraq war. He also has been active with the Toys for Tots campaigns, the Marine Corps Coordinating Council of Kentucky, Boy Scouts of America, Junior Achievement and Boys’ State of Kentucky. He is a member of the Louisville Bar and American Bar associations. He previously served as a senior advisor to VoteVets.org, a pro-military group that supports Iraq and Afghanistan veterans running for office.

For more info on Andrew Horne, here’s my interview with him last month:

Lt. Col. Andrew Horne was kind enough to answer some questions that I had for him. Here is the transcript:

ME: You were registered independent before you decided to run for Congress against Anne Northup in 2006. Why had you remained Independent up until that point, and what factored in your decision to join the Democrats?

AH: Since enlisting as a Marine in 1979, I was registered as an Independent voter, believing that as a Marine my duty was to my country, my loyalty to the Constitution, and not a particular political party or president. But my political perspective changed after completing my last tour in Iraq.  I saw first hand how the Bush administration’s civilian leaders mismanaged the war and misled the American people. I saw our Republican leaders repeatedly ask working people and middle class families to bear the greatest sacrifice, while asking little of the wealthiest and most powerful. For these reasons, I changed my party registration from Independent to the Democratic Party.  As a candidate with my background, the discussion will be about ending the war responsibly and taking on the real challenges facing American families, such as health care, education and economic and retirement security.

ME: Many in the media are claiming that the “surge” strategy is working in Iraq. How accurate do you think such claims are?

AH: To determine if the escalation is “working” we must begin with what the goals were at the time it was initiated and our desired end state for Iraq.   If our end state is political reconciliation leading to stability it has not been a success.  If our end state is more of our troops in harms way protecting Iraqis then it has been a success.   However, few would argue that having more of our troops risking their lives every day to keep their fingers in the proverbial dike is a good thing or a desirable consequence, particularly when it does not appear there is any end in sight.  From these parameters it is clearly not working.  The question is how long do we cling to the hope that the Iraqi leadership will step up and do what needs to be done.  I for one believe the Iraqi leadership will allow us to carry their water for them as long as we are willing.  If we send a clear message that we will leave soon they will step up.  The current Basra situation is an example of what could happen if we leave- much to the chagrin of the Bush administration the British pulled out of Basra and defying all predictions violence dropped by 90%.

ME: What type of reaction do you get from fellow Marines that you served with when they hear how critical you are of President Bush’s policies in Iraq?

AH: Marines’ attitudes are not monolithic, and they are as diverse as the general population.   However, most of the Marines I speak to are supportive and tell me I am doing the right thing, particularly if they have seen combat in Iraq.

ME: What do you make of the saber rattling going on amongst the Bush administration when it comes to Iran?   Is this even a viable option at this moment, or is this just for show?

AH: The Iran situation is serious and should not be underestimated.  The administration seems to be eager to increase tensions and the saber rattling is just one example.  The rhetoric could be intended to pressure the Iranians to the table; however, Bush does not always act prudently and he could be considering some form of preemptive action.  From my perspective, there do not seem to be many viable options for the use of force given our current force structure and other commitments, but if history has taught us anything it is not to misjudge the extent of Bush’s hubris.

ME: Do you think that McConnell’s two filibusters on Sen. Jim Webb’s amendments to restore proper troop rotation between tours will hurt his support among the military in KY, particularly Western Kentucky?

AH: Absolutely.  Mitch McConnell prevented voting on the Webb Amendment that would have given our troops more time between tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The people that join our military are patriots who are willing to make enormous sacrifices for our country and our way of life.  Those sacrifices, however, are not being shared by the rest of our society and the same people are asked again and again to shoulder the burden.  This has not been lost on Veterans.  Mitch McConnell will be held accountable.  In this vein, I want to share a note that I read on the “Draft Horne” website:

   Dear Mr. Horne,

   My husband is currently serving his 2nd fifteen month deployment in Iraq. I am asking you to please run against Mitch McConnell in 2008. I wrote to Mr. McConnell asking him to request more MRAP's for our troops, and received no response. When I wrote him regarding Rush Limbaugh's comments about "phony soldiers", I received a letter defending Rush as a consistent supporter of our troops. This seems very lopsided to me, and I believe that someone like you could make a really big difference in Congress. Please run.

ME: Outside of policies dealing with Iraq and Veterans, what are your major criticisms with Mitch McConnell’s performance in the Senate?

AH: I strongly believe Senator Mitch McConnell is taking us down the wrong path.  McConnell has given President Bush, big business and corrupt lobbyists a blank check and rubber stamp for their selfish agenda. He is unwilling to address the healthcare crisis.  He votes against legislation that would control college costs for regular people.  He is blatantly loyal to corporate interests above the interests of working people and the middle class.  However, if I were to have one principal complaint it would be his gross partisanship.  In that last 7 years he has been one of the most strident enablers of the Bush fiasco and since the midterm elections he has been the most vocal, effective and smug obstructionist in the Senate.   By his conduct it is clear that he does not care what is good for Kentucky, the United States or the people; his primary concern is his own survival and the political success of the Republican Party.

ME: Many Democrats around the country are currently upset with their party, particularly for not following through on their promises when they won back Congress last fall. How valid do you think such complaints are, and do you share any of them?

AH: The message from the electorate during the last elections was stunning and the Democrats have not acted on that message.  So I do believe that much of the criticism is fair; however, the Republican’s have sufficient votes in the Senate to filibuster and Bush can still veto so the Democrats do not have an unfettered ability to enact legislation completely of their choosing.  The Democrats could have forced the issue in regard to funding of Iraq by not sending up alternative legislation absent affirmative statements by McConnell and Bush that there would be some compromise.

ME: During the nomination process of AG Mukasey, there was much discussion of what defines torture and what defines “enhanced interrogation techniques”. How familiar are you with waterboarding, and does this constitute torture?

AH: All politics aside, waterboarding is absolutely torture.  It is prohibited by the Army interrogation manual, which is used by all of the armed forces of the United States.  If Soldiers, Marines, Sailors or Airmen waterboard a prisoner they can and probably will be prosecuted under the Uniform Code of Military Justice for “Abuse of a Prisoner.”  End of discussion.

Let me say that I do not know if the politicization of words is a new phenomenon but it is new to me.  When I was in Iraq during a command briefing to Ambassador Negroponte we were all amused to learn from the Ambassador that we were not supposed to use the words “insurgent[s]” or “insurgency,” apparently the approved words were “terrorist[s]” and “terrorism.” [In his defense he seemed as amused as the rest of us.]  When I came home I was surprised and amused when I was questioned about whether the attack into Iraq was an “invasion” or “liberation.”  [I wasn’t aware there was any real question about that.]  The games being played by Bush, et al would almost make me laugh if they weren’t so disturbing.

ME: Many candidates in the Republican Presidential debates have boasted about “doubling Gitmo”, channeling “Jack Bauer”, and saying the most important civil liberty is “staying alive”. What are your thoughts on this kind of talk?

AH: I am unsure how a rational person can comment on those types of attitudes.  Torture and detention centers are not things that anyone should boast about.  We must not forget that moral standards are vital to success in warfare and school yard attitudes about strength and toughness have no place in serious debate.  I wrote an Op Ed for the CJ right before the 2006 midterms entitled “Tough Is Not Enough”, which addresses these issues in more detail.  (ME: full transcript here)

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

A poll out today from the Herald-Leader makes it clear:

Kentuckians don’t like Mitch McConnell, and he is VULNERABLE in 2008.

Just as the last two Survey USA polls have shown, Kentuckians are starting to sour on their Senior Senator. Mitch McConnell’s approval rating has fallen to 45%, while his disapproval rating has risen to 46%, the first time that any poll has shown his disapprovals eclipsing approvals.

Additionally, McConnell continues to lose support from moderates in big numbers, as only 33% approve and 61% disapprove.  His numbers among Independents aren’t much better, at 37/53%.

The LHL poll also shows potential Democrats well within firing range of McConnell in next year’s Senate race. Chandler, Stumbo, Horne and Luallen are all within 5 to 11% in a potential matchup against the incumbent McConnell in 2008.

The most impressive numbers among these potential challengers is that of Lt. Col. Andrew Horne. Despite the fact that Horne has low name recognition at the moment, with 55% having no opinion of him, he is still within distance of McConnell, down 45% to 34%. In comparison, the % of those having no opinion of Chandler, Stumbo and Luallen, are only 12, 13 and 23%, respectively. If Horne runs and wins the nomination, his name recognition would skyrocket, closing the gap with McConnell considerably (especially considering that Horne’s approval/disapproval among those who know him is at 36/9%). From Del Ali, the president of the company who conducted the poll:

“Here’s a guy that half the electorate really doesn’t know but yet when you put him against an incumbent whom nearly everyone knows, he’s in the race,” said Ali, the pollster. “It tells me the voters of Kentucky at least are open to someone to represent them differently in the U.S. Senate.”

Additionally, Horne is a harder target for McConnell to smear in a potential matchup than other Democrats. From the LHL:

And McConnell already has a reputation as a fierce campaigner who seizes on opponents’ political weaknesses.

For that reason, a candidate such as Horne could give McConnell the most fits, said (Democratic consultant, Danny) Briscoe.

“Chandler, Stumbo and Luallen all have public records that McConnell will look at as raw meat,” he said.

Horne is also more immune to attacks from McConnell on matters of national security than other potential candidates. Horne is a 27 year Marine vet who served in both Iraq wars. His experience on the ground in the current war, along with his vocal opposition to this unpopular policy in KY, would make him a difficult target of the expected “Defeatocrat, cut-and-runner” line of attack that will be sure to come from McConnell.

…………………..

This election will be a brutal fight. McConnell is well known for being one of the most cutthroat campaigners that you’re ever going find. He is relentless in his attacks, and will stoop to anything to gain an edge.

This is why we need a new face in Kentucky politics to take him on. We need a candidate without baggage in their background that can be exploited.  We need a candidate with character and spine, who will stand toe-to-toe with McConnell and not back down from a fight. We need an outsider, not a career politician who runs for office every year. We need a unifying candidate for all Kentuckians across this state.

We need Lt. Col. Andrew Horne.

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)