Previous diaries
Summary:
KY has 6 reps: 4 R, 2 D
LA has 7 reps: 6 R, 1 D
ME has 2 reps: Both D
Possibly vulnerable:
KY-02 (R) (just a bit)
LA-02 (R) VERY vulnerable.
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: KY-01
Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Ed Whitfeld (R)
VoteView 286
First elected 1994
2008 margin 64-36 over Heather Ryan
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents
Demographics 11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment Long shot
District: KY-02
Location Central KY, bordering IN. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Brett Guthrie (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 322.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin 53-47 over David Boswell
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)
Assessment Guthrie ran well behind McCain, not a good sign. He may be a little bit vulnerable.
District: KY-03
Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering INmap
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative John Yarmuth (D)
VoteView 132.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 59-41 over Anne Northup
2006 margin 51-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: KY-04
Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Geoff Davis (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 322.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 63-37 over Michael Kelly
2006 margin 52-43
2004 margin 54-44
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents John Waltz (looks quite progressive)
Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)
Assessment Long shot
District: KY-05
Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Harold Rogers (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 321
First elected 1980
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 31-67
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Jim Holbert
Demographics An unusual district. The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).
Assessment Long shot
District: KY-06
Location Central KY, including Lexington map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Ben Chandler (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 211
First elected 2004
2008 margin 65-35 over John Larson
2006 margin 85-15 (vs. libertarian)
2004 margin 59-40
Obama margin 43-55
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Matt Lockett
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: LA-01
Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Steve Scalise (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 389
First elected 2007 (replacing Jindal)
2008 margin 66-34 over Jim Harlan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 26-72
Bush margin 2004 71-29
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot
District: LA-02
Location New Orleans map
Cook PVI D + 25
Representative Anh Cao (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2009 (replacing Jefferson)
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 75-23
Bush margin 2004 24-75
Current opponents None confirmed, but Cedric Richmond, who ran against Jefferson, is considering. Any Democrat is likely to beat Cao.
Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)
Assessment By far the most vulnerable candidate in any race.
District: LA-03
Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Charlie Melancon (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 218
First elected 2004
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 55-40
2004 margin in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000
Obama margin 37-61
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment A very Republican district, but Melancon seems safe; but apparently he is really considering not running, as there are a whole slew of Democrats and Republicans thinking about running. This bears watching.
District: LA-04
Location Western LA, bordering TX and AR, including Shreveportmap
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative John Fleming (R) Not confirmed
VoteView NA
First elected 2009
2008 margin Beat Paul Carmouche by 356 votes
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents
Demographics 36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)
Assessment Long shot
District: LA-05
Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Rodney Alexander (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 306
First elected 2002
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 68-29
2004 margin 59% (no runoff)
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)
Assessment Long shot
District: LA-06
Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Bill Cassidy (R) Not confirmed
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 48-40 over Don Cazayoux
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 41-57
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Cassidy ousted Cazayoux in a Democratic year; it will be tough to oust him, now, in an R + 10 district.
District: LA-07
Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Charles Boustany (R)
VoteView 301
First elected 2004
2008 margin 62-34 over Don Cravins
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 55-45 in runoff
Obama margin 35-63
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)
Assessment Long shot
District: ME-01
Location The southern part of ME, including Portland map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Chellie Pingree (D) Not confirmed
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-45 over Charles Summers
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)
Assessment Safe, Pingree won in an open race in 2008
District: ME-02
Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Michael Michaud (D)
VoteView 135.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 67-33 over John Frary
2006 margin 61-31
2004 margin 60-40
Obama margin 55-43
Bush margin 2004 46-52
Current opponents Jason Levesque
Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment Safe
Won’t show much activity, except maybe in Louisiana. I don’t see any of Kentucky’s seats flipping, although if the Democrats can find a good candidate in KY-2, they might have a chance at pulling the upset. I’m thinking that LA is going to stay 6-1 Repub, with the Republicans picking up LA-3 thanks to Melancon bolting for Senate, and the Dems knocking out Cao in LA-2.