Tag: Senate 2008

A roundup of races that haven’t yet been decided:

AK-Sen: Will this race be finalized before Ted Stevens is carted off to the big house? Answer: Yes. Will it be over before the Senate has a chance to boot his sorry ass? Maybe not. While Unca Ted has a 3,300-vote lead, some 76,000 ballots remain to be counted. Supposedly, they need to be counted by Nov. 14th, but the “target date” for certification is not until Nov. 25th (PDF). And then, who knows – maybe we’ll have a recount.

P.S. More here from Mark Begich’s brother Tom.

CA-04: Conservative Icon™ Tom McClintock has a 451-vote lead with 100% of precincts counted. Absentees and provisional ballots need to be counted. But check this out:

If no candidate is more than ½ of 1 percentage point ahead in the semiofficial Election Day results, county election officials will automatically begin partial manual audits. After the counties deliver their totals to the secretary of state in December the candidates will have the option to ask for a recount. (Emphasis added.)

We could be waiting a long time on this one.

GA-Sen: This race will likely go to a run-off between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin. A run-off can’t formally be declared until the state certifies the election results next week, and outstanding votes could possibly tip the race to Chambliss. Nonetheless, both sides are in campaign mode. If there is a run-off, it will be held Dec. 2nd.

LA-04: This seat will also feature a run-off between Dem Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming. The date for that face-off is Dec. 6th.

MD-01: Dem Frank Kratovil is sitting on a 915-vote lead. But some 25,000 absentee ballots need to be counted. Results get certified Nov. 14th – not too bad, compared to some other states.

MN-Sen: An automatic recount seems certain here. Dickface Norm Coleman leads by a mind-boggling 475 votes out of 2.9 million cast. (Shades of WA-Gov 2004?) Oh, and here’s why I’m calling him a dickface. State law provides for an automatic recount if the margin is less than 0.5%. Yet this is what he’s said:

“Yesterday the voters spoke. We prevailed,” Coleman said Wednesday at a news conference. He noted Franken could opt to waive the recount.

“It’s up to him whether such a step is worth the tax dollars it will take to conduct,” Coleman said, telling reporters he would “step back” if he were in Franken’s position. Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said the recount would cost 3 cents per ballot, or almost $90,000.

What a chiseler – ninety-fucking-thousand dollars. That’s like one wealthy-donor-funded Nieman Marcus shopping spree for this douchenozzle. Anyhow, the same article says that a recount won’t begin until mid-November and could take “weeks.” Lawyers, ten-hut!

OH-15: As noted below, GOPer Steve “Steve” Stivers is ahead of Mary Jo Kilroy by just 321 votes. We may get final results in ten days, or maybe longer. If the final margin is under 0.5%, then there will be an automatic recount. We had one of those last time in this very same race – it took until mid-December to complete.

VA-05: Dem Tom Perriello is clinging to a 31-vote lead over incumbent Virgil Goode. Absentees need to be counted. This race will surely go to a recount. However, VA law does not provide for automatic recounts, and a candidate cannot request one until after the official canvas is complete. That isn’t until Nov. 24th, so sit tight.

WA-08: Good idea: Let’s allow everyone in Washington state to vote by mail! Bad idea: Let’s make the rule that you have to postmark your ballot by election day. In neighboring Oregon (the vote-by-mail pioneer), ballots sensibly have to be received by election day. But Washington has decided to do things the annoying way, so it’ll be a while before we get final results here – election officials say it’ll take a week to count all the ballots. (Though I don’t know if there is a drop-dead date by which ballots must be received.)

Anyhow, in the meantime, we know that GOPer Dave Reichert has about a 1,900-vote lead over Darcy Burner. The good news is that in 2006, Reichert won by 14.83% in Pierce County and 0.15% in King County. This time so far, he’s ahead by just 12.22% in Pierce and is behind 1.62% in King, which has 80% of the district’s population. My sense is that Burner probably has to start doing a little bit better in King to pull this one off.

UPDATE: Skywaker9 says that properly postmarked ballots have to be received within a week in WA.

LATE UPDATE (James): In the shocker race in California’s 44th District, where unheralded Dem challenger Bill Hedrick is trailing GOP scuzzbucket Rep. Ken Calvert by 4600 votes, neither side has declared victory yet.

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

A poll out today from the Herald-Leader makes it clear:

Kentuckians don’t like Mitch McConnell, and he is VULNERABLE in 2008.

Just as the last two Survey USA polls have shown, Kentuckians are starting to sour on their Senior Senator. Mitch McConnell’s approval rating has fallen to 45%, while his disapproval rating has risen to 46%, the first time that any poll has shown his disapprovals eclipsing approvals.

Additionally, McConnell continues to lose support from moderates in big numbers, as only 33% approve and 61% disapprove.  His numbers among Independents aren’t much better, at 37/53%.

The LHL poll also shows potential Democrats well within firing range of McConnell in next year’s Senate race. Chandler, Stumbo, Horne and Luallen are all within 5 to 11% in a potential matchup against the incumbent McConnell in 2008.

The most impressive numbers among these potential challengers is that of Lt. Col. Andrew Horne. Despite the fact that Horne has low name recognition at the moment, with 55% having no opinion of him, he is still within distance of McConnell, down 45% to 34%. In comparison, the % of those having no opinion of Chandler, Stumbo and Luallen, are only 12, 13 and 23%, respectively. If Horne runs and wins the nomination, his name recognition would skyrocket, closing the gap with McConnell considerably (especially considering that Horne’s approval/disapproval among those who know him is at 36/9%). From Del Ali, the president of the company who conducted the poll:

“Here’s a guy that half the electorate really doesn’t know but yet when you put him against an incumbent whom nearly everyone knows, he’s in the race,” said Ali, the pollster. “It tells me the voters of Kentucky at least are open to someone to represent them differently in the U.S. Senate.”

Additionally, Horne is a harder target for McConnell to smear in a potential matchup than other Democrats. From the LHL:

And McConnell already has a reputation as a fierce campaigner who seizes on opponents’ political weaknesses.

For that reason, a candidate such as Horne could give McConnell the most fits, said (Democratic consultant, Danny) Briscoe.

“Chandler, Stumbo and Luallen all have public records that McConnell will look at as raw meat,” he said.

Horne is also more immune to attacks from McConnell on matters of national security than other potential candidates. Horne is a 27 year Marine vet who served in both Iraq wars. His experience on the ground in the current war, along with his vocal opposition to this unpopular policy in KY, would make him a difficult target of the expected “Defeatocrat, cut-and-runner” line of attack that will be sure to come from McConnell.

…………………..

This election will be a brutal fight. McConnell is well known for being one of the most cutthroat campaigners that you’re ever going find. He is relentless in his attacks, and will stoop to anything to gain an edge.

This is why we need a new face in Kentucky politics to take him on. We need a candidate without baggage in their background that can be exploited.  We need a candidate with character and spine, who will stand toe-to-toe with McConnell and not back down from a fight. We need an outsider, not a career politician who runs for office every year. We need a unifying candidate for all Kentuckians across this state.

We need Lt. Col. Andrew Horne.

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

Cross Posted at MyDD.Com and OpenLeft.Com

The word in New Mexico circles is that despite his announcement, Congressman Udall is still being urged to run for the Senate. If  “Udall for Senate” gives you the same kind butterflies in your stomach as it gives me, please help urge him to run! Send Tom Udall the message that we want him as our next Senator by sending a small, $5 contribution to his campaign.

It seems like whoever you talk to in Washington and most importantly, in New Mexico, people agree that Tom Udall is our hero candidate. Obviously he needs to step up and run.

A move to run after announcing otherwise is not without precedent and you don't hear anyone complaining about the last guy who did it. In August of 2005, now Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he would not run against former-Senator Mike DeWine in Ohio. For the next two months, the grassroots urged him to reconsider his decision for the people of Ohio and for people across the nation. He eventually reversed his decision and went on to win the seat for Democrats, helping to give us control of the US Senate.

We need to send Congressman Udall that same message (here's another chance to donate that $5!). The people of New Mexico want him to run and people in Washington and across the United States hope that he'll help us to increase our majority in the Senate by turning Senator Domenici's seat blue!

Tom Udall is the best choice for New Mexico AND for the country as we work towards building the Democratic majority in the Senate. I already wrote a bit about his background, including a bit about his family and his cash on hand that he could use for his Senate campaign committee. But there are other, better reasons for Tom Udall to be the next Senator from New Mexico.

For one, he's a good progressive. He's pro-choice, an environmentalist, a defender of civil liberties and civil rights, and one of the great supporters for veterans in the Democratic Party today. In fact, during his time as a minority member in the Congress, he took the junior seat on the Veteran's Committee in addition to his regular committee portfolio.

In the first polling out about the race in New Mexico, Tom Udall beats both Republicans by 18 points! Governor Richardson is the only other New Mexican who polls as high. Representative Udall could afford to leave his safe seat in the north with these kinds of numbers, run hard for the Senate, and win. He could leave his House seat knowing that another Democrat (and there are many) could easily keep it in Dem control.

In terms of numbers, this just makes sense. Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) and Congressman Steve Pearce (R) are the two leading contenders to replace Senator Domenici on the Republican side (Pearce has formed an exploratory committee and will announce his intentions in the next two weeks, while Wilson declared less than 24 hours after Domenici's announcement and after weeks of traveling statewide). The numbers tell us that both beat current Dem candidates Chavez and Wiviott by small-to-wide margins. The following summary of the numbers comes from the Democracy For New Mexico blog.

 

Starting with Republican candidate Steven Pearce, Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd District:
*    Pearce loses to Congressman Tom Udall by 18 points
*    loses to Governor Bill Richardson by 24 points
*    defeats Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez by 21 points
*    defeats former Attorney General Patricia Madrid by 16 points
*    and defeats businessman Don Wiviott by 35 points.
Now to Republican candidate Heather Wilson, Congresswoman from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District:
*    Wilson loses to Udall by 18 points (same as Pearce),
*    loses to Richardson by 27 points (Wilson runs 3 points weaker than Pearce),
*    defeats Chavez by 4 points (Wilson runs 17 points weaker than Pearce),
*    effectively ties Patricia Madrid (Wilson runs 15 points weaker than Pearce)
*    and defeats Wiviott by 17 points (Wilson runs 18 points weaker than Pearce).

 

Someone needs to put these numbers on the Congressman's desk and tell him that it's time to run.

We know that Udall's numbers aren't fluff, either. He's run statewide before and won as Attorney General, twice! Since then, Udall has remained a proud defender of the Constitution and our rights. He was one of the original 66 Members of Congress to stand up with courage against the PATRIOT Act that was first railroaded through the House, forcing most Representatives to vote on a bill they had never read.

This is the kind of leadership and courage we should demand from our leaders and a primary reason why New Mexicans are asking Tom Udall to run for Senate.

Congressman Udall's voting record is solidly progressive. Help in the movement to Draft Tom Udall for Senate today by sending him $5 and the message that he's our best hope!

Hillary Clinton has pulled far, far ahead of Barack Obama in New Hampshire.  And that’s bad news for us as Democrats.  Why?  Well, think of it this way:

In order to win Congressional and Senate races in the more “purple” states, we need someone at the top of the ticket whose presence energizes in a positive way.  In 2004, down-ballot Dems had to run away from John Kerry, who was a liability.  Hillary is hated throughout middle America, and will not be able to appear with candidates at fundraisers or any other event.  If Hillary gets the nomination, she might squeak by with the presidency, but we will lose many, many races down-ballot.  Somebody stop her . . . please!!!!!!!!!