In the last few weeks, Rasmussen Reports – already among the most prolific pollsters – has released a torrent of new senate and gubernatorial polls. While political junkies might instinctively be grateful for all the data, partisans have to be concerned about Rasmussen’s ability to drive the over-arching narrative. This is all the more so given widespread concerns about Rasmussen’s methodology – concerns which have given rise to at least two new detailed analyses on Pollster.com this month, one by Mark Blumenthal and the second by Alan Abramowitz.
I personally think Rasmussen Reports has an axe to grind – their made-up way of reporting presidential favorables and their questionable non-electoral polls make me mistrustful. At the same time, we don’t want to stick our heads in the sand, and 538.com’s pollster ratings do indicate that Rasmussen seems to be interested in getting things right, at least as far as the horserace is concerned. So we’ve decided to package up the most recent Raz surveys and let ’em all at you in one blast.
CT-Sen (12/7, likely voters, 9/10 in parens):
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 35 (39)
Rob Simmons (R): 48 (49)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 11 (6)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39 (42)
Peter Schiff (R): 40 (40)
Other: 8 (7)
Undecided: 14 (10)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 38
Linda McMahon (R): 43
Other: 8
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Sen (12/8, likely voters, 9/15 in parens):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 37 (36)
Jane Norton (R): 46 (45)
Other: 8 (7)
Undecided: 8 (12)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41
Tom Wiens (R): 42
Other: 7
Undecided: 10Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38
Ken Buck (R): 42
Other: 8
Undecided: 12Andrew Romanoff (D): 34 (34)
Jane Norton (R): 45 (42)
Other: 7 (8)
Undecided: 15 (15)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40
Tom Wiens (R): 41
Other: 5
Undecided: 14Andrew Romanoff (D): 39
Ken Buck (R): 41
Other: 6
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen (12/9, likely voters, 10/14 in parens):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 42 (41)
Mark Kirk (R): 39 (41)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 14 (13)Cheryle Jackson (D): 39 (39)
Mark Kirk (R): 42 (43)
Other: 4 (4)
Undecided: 15 (13)David Hoffman (D): 38 (33)
Mark Kirk (R): 42 (43)
Other: 3 (8)
Undecided: 17 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (12/9, likely voters, 9/14 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (40)
Sue Lowden (R): 49 (50)
Other: 6 (4)
Undecided: 3 (5)Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (43)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (50)
Other: 6 (4)
Undecided: 2 (3)Harry Reid (D-inc): 43
Sharron Angle (R): 47
Other: 7
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Sen (12/7, likely voters, 9/23 in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)
Rob Portman (R): 38 (41)
Other: 8 (6)
Undecided: 18 (14)Jennifer Brunner (D): 33 (38)
Rob Portman (R): 40 (40)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 20 (18)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Gov (12/7, likely voters, 9/23 in parens):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 39 (45)
Jon Kasich (R): 48 (46)
Other: 3 (3)
Undecided: 11 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SC-Gov (12/2, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jim Rex (D): 33
Gresham Barrett (R): 39
Other: 7
Undecided: 21Jim Rex (D): 36
Andre Bauer (R): 35
Other: 13
Undecided: 16Jim Rex (D): 32
Henry McMaster (R): 39
Other: 10
Undecided: 19Vincent Sheheen (D): 23
Gresham Barrett (R): 45
Other: 11
Undecided: 20Vincent Sheheen (D): 29
Andre Bauer (R): 39
Other: 13
Undecided: 19Vincent Sheheen (D): 26
Henry McMaster (R): 43
Other: 10
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.5%)
For the final word, I’ll turn things over to Jon Stewart. The ever-brights at Fox & Friends had some difficulty in retransmitting a misleadingly-worded (and dodgy) Rasmussen survey on global warming, leading Stewart to opine (at 1:50) that this poll had a margin of error of “monkey-fuck ridiculous”:
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| Gretchen Carlson Dumbs Down | ||||
|
||||
Rasmussen Reports, you decide.