PPP (pdf) (2/5-10, likely voters)
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Robert Hurt (R): 44
Undecided: 13Tom Perriello (D-inc): 41
Robert Hurt (R): 12
Virgil Goode (I): 41
Undecided: 6Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Robert Hurt (R): 27
Generic Teabagger (I): 19
Undecided: 10Tom Perriello (D-inc): 46
Ken Boyd (R): 42
Undecided: 12Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45
Jim McKelvey (R): 37
Undecided: 18Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45
Michael McPadden (R): 36
Undecided: 19Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Lawrence Verga (R): 34
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Mainstream media pundits have pretty much already left Rep. Tom Perriello for dead. Between having the narrowest margin of victory of any Democrat in 2008 (900-odd votes over then-Rep. Virgil Goode) and sitting in a rural R+5 district that went strongly for Bob McDonnell in November’s gubernatorial race, he was already viewed as endangered — and when he cast theoretically risky votes for cap and trade and health care reform instead of hiding under a pile of coats with the Blue Dogs, well, it was an open and shut case, right? Guess again: PPP finds Perriello tied with his strongest Republican opposition, state Sen. Robert Hurt, and winning rather convincingly against the assortment of other random Republicans. (As a bonus, PPP promises GOP primary numbers tomorrow, so we can see if Hurt, an establishment figure who’s had a big target painted on his back by not just the teabaggers but also the CfG/Grover Norquist set, is getting hurt by the GOP schism.) Don’t pop the bubbly yet, of course: Perriello’s still well below the 50% safety mark.
One thing I love about PPP is how willing they are to try out every possible permutation, and they do that here, with a three-way against an unnamed tea party independent (although Generic Teabagger already has a name in this race… it’s Bradley Rees), where Perriello effectively rides the split to victory over Hurt, and a three-way with ex-Rep. Virgil Goode as an independent (something he’s threatened, although hasn’t taken steps towards). There, it’s actually a Perriello/Goode tie, with Hurt getting a woeful 12%. This is interesting, as Goode is basically functioning as a non-generic teabagger; if there’s one guy out there who seems tailor-made for the Tea Party movement, it’s Goode, who briefly served as an independent in between being a Dem (when first elected) and a GOPer, and whose odd, ideologically incoherent mix of libertarianism, populism, and xenophobic crackpottery seems like the teabagger template.
Also worth noting: Goode is the only person in the whole poll who’s in positive territory (58/29). Not Barack Obama (although he’s at a surprisingly not-bad 46/50), not Perriello (42/46), not Hurt (15/15), and certainly not the other GOP odds and ends.
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