Tag: LA-06

Anzalone Liszt for Don Cazayoux (likely special election voters, 4/8-10, 3/16-20 in parens):

Don Cazayoux (D): 49% (49%)

Woody Jenkins (R): 42% (44%)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The poll also shows that Cazayoux’s favorables have increased by 15% since March.  Cazayoux has a 55%-13% favorable/unfavorable rating, while Jenkins is at 56%/34%.  

Who knows how much of a hit Cazayoux will take after Freedom Watch’s decision to buy attack ads against him.  But for now, things are looking quite healthy here.

Special election: 5/3.

It’s not a huge bill, but the DCCC just increased their expenditures in the LA-06 special election by $35,000.  The expenditures include nearly $4,000 in field organizing and an additional $32K media buy.

The new expenditures put the DCCC’s tab in this race to nearly $145,000.  We saw on Thursday that the NRCC is willing to drop some cash on defending this R+6.5 seat — to the tune of $110,000.  It’ll be interesting to see how this escalates as we approach the special election on May 3rd.

With the DCCC dropping $111,000 on TV ads and literature in the special election race to replace GOP Rep. Richard Baker, the NRCC has followed suit with a $110K buy of its own against Democrat Don Cazayoux.

The NRCC’s ad (viewable here) hits Cazayoux on taxes and also mocks the spelling of his name.  DavidNYC offers his take:

Making fun of his last name strikes me as remarkably tone deaf and buttresses the claims that the staff at the NRCC – long considered a very good shop – really has gotten a lot weaker. This reminds of when the Club for Growth ran ads against Olympia Snowe calling her a “Franco-Republican” (she likes to raise taxes – just like the French, get it?), despite Maine have a very large population of French descent.

As for the tax hike claims, the ad in tiny type has a running list of bills (which Cazayoux presumably voted for) that allegedly contained these tax hikes. If these claims are bullshit, Cazayoux should demand the ad be taken off the air. (Remember, the threshold is lower for non-candidate ads.)

Meanwhile, quietly concerned about the open seat race to fill the vacant seat of MS-01 (previously held by Roger Wicker, who was tapped by Haley Barbour to replace Trent Lott in the Senate), the NRCC also logged a $12K expenditure on a poll of the district.  Depending on its results, we may see the GOP pour some more resources into this race to bolster GOP candidate Greg Davis against Democrat Travis Childers, who is running a hard-charging campaign for the R+10 seat.

Even without a pair of wins here, the fact that the NRCC is bleeding resources on a string of red seat special elections is priceless.

Boom goes the dynamite:

DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE

Great American Media

Purpose of Expenditure: Media Buy

Name of Federal Candidate supported or opposed by expenditure: Louis (Woody) Jenkins

Office Sought: House of Representatives

State is Louisiana in District 06

Amount Expended = $92177.00

Allan B Crow &Associates, Inc.

Purpose of Expenditure: Media Production

Name of Federal Candidate supported or opposed by expenditure: Louis (Woody) Jenkins

Amount Expended = $6842.11

Mission Control, Inc.

Purpose of Expenditure: Literature

Name of Federal Candidate supported or opposed by expenditure: Donald J. Cazayoux

Amount Expended = $5750.00

Mission Control, Inc.

Purpose of Expenditure: Literature

Name of Federal Candidate supported or opposed by expenditure: Louis (Woody) Jenkins

Amount Expended = $5750.00

Bear in mind that this ain’t no chump change.  The Baton Rouge media market is ten times less expensive than Chicago’s, where the DCCC bought time for ads opposing wingnut Jim Oberweis.

Chris Cilizza has a copy of the ad hitting Jenkins.

UPDATE: The NRCC is up with an ad of its own, also using taxes as its main message.  No word yet on how large of an ad buy this is.

Aight, y’all … in less than month, voters will head back to the polls and decide which candidate best represents Louisiana values. Don Cazayoux’s campaign is putting the final touches on their sprint to the finish and they need our help to put them over the top. It’s time to get their message out and make sure all the voters know that Don will stand up for Louisiana families.

Don has promised to stand up for Louisiana’s middle class families by fighting to provide access to high quality, affordable health care, while at the same time making it easier for small businesses to provide health care to their employees. He’s also committed to keeping the lower tax rates for middle class families, so they can keep what they earn, and reinvest it right here in Louisiana.

CQ Quarterly called this race a “No Clear Favorite,” which is astonishing, as this district has been represented by a Republican for the last 30+ years. Even the Cook Political Report called a Cazayoux-Jenkins matchup “a perfect storm for Democrats”:

Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites – moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins – would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.

Cazayoux, much like neighboring Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon did in 2004, could very plausibly take advantage of GOP disunity and use his rural background to cut into the heart of the district’s GOP base.

Folks, we can win this one. But we need to step it up. You can donate, or volunteer. In order to win this one, we all have to step it up.

Let’s set a goal of $10,000 from the netroots. Right now, Don’s raised $60,810 from 110 donors over at ActBlue.

Let’s make it $70,810 in 7 days. I know we can do that.

Donate.

Volunteer.

Anzalone Liszt for the Don Cazayoux campaign (March 16-20, likely special election voters):

Don Cazayoux (D): 49%

Woody Jenkins (R): 44%

(n=500)

So far, things are looking good for Don Cazayoux.

A sign of the times?  According to a GOP operative quoted in the Wall Street Journal, the NRCC is promising support to LA-06 special election nominee Woody Jenkins only if he meets certain “financial benchmarks”:

A Republican aide said the NRCC will meet with Mr. Jenkins’s campaign this week to discuss strategy and to outline financial benchmarks that the campaign will have to meet to receive the campaign committee’s support. They are currently polling in the district as well. “We are aware of the challenges we face,” said a House Republican aide, noting that a Jenkins victory “is doable, but it’s difficult.”

Now, I find it pretty hard to believe that the NRCC would give up on an R+6.5 Southern open seat so easily, even with Jenkins’ shady ties to former KKK leader David Duke figuring prominently in just about every post-runoff news article on this race.    But if the GOP wants to game the expectations that winning this district — one that hasn’t elected a Democrat to Congress since the early 1970s — is an uphill fight for them, well, that’s their choice to make.  But with Democrat Don Cazayoux outraising Jenkins ($532K vs. $290K through March 16), talk like this is not exactly inspiring to the national donors that Jenkins needs to attract.

RESULTS: Louisiana SoS | NoLA.com

11:23PM: What an ideal match-up this is.  Democrats have an affable candidate whose socially conservative credentials suit his district well, while the Republicans are stuck with this fool:

A Jenkins-Cazayoux face-off would be a tough fight.

Cazayoux has raised more money than Jenkins and does not carry the political baggage, but Jenkins is a well-known personage in Louisiana and served 28 years in the state House. Jenkins narrowly lost a 1996 Senate race against Democrat Mary Landrieu.

In 2002, the Federal Elections Commission fined Jenkins for illegally concealing his purchase of a phone bank tied to former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. In the 1980s, Jenkins was aligned with Oliver North, a figure in the Iran-Contra scandal, through a charity Jenkins ran called the Friends of the Americas, which sent medical supplies to Central America.

With press like that, it’s hard not to feel good about this one, isn’t it?

11:16PM: 511 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux: 56.79% (19,756); Jackson: 43.21% (15,034).

Jenkins: 61.96% (15,162); Calongne: 38.04% (9,308).

11:07PM: 488 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux still has a 58%-42% lead.  Let’s tally up the ballots so far: 32,980 Dem and 23,596 GOP votes.  Pretty nice.

10:55PM: Haw haw!  Jackson now has 13,401 votes to Jenkins’ 12,845.  The NRCC has some work to do here, methinks.

10:52PM: 447 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a 58%-42% lead over Jackson.  Here’s a fun fact: the loser of tonight’s Democratic primary, Michael Jackson, has nearly as many votes as the winner of tonight’s Republican primary, Woody Jenkins.  (12,822 to 12,672 so far)

10:38PM: 424 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux is sitting pretty with a 60%-40% lead.  28,619 Democratic and 20,534 Republican ballots have been counted so far.  Lookin’ good.

10:32PM: 365 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux’s lead has tightened to 64%-36%.  With the outstanding precincts being from the East Baton Rouge Parish, expect this margin to tighten up a bit, but it won’t be enough to make too huge of dent.

10:25PM: Man, it amazes me to say this, but I can’t believe that the Louisiana GOP fielded this crop of sadsack losers to defend a vulnerable open seat like this one.

10:14PM: 309 precincts reporting.  Total votes so far: 20,343 Democratic and 16,403 Republican ballots.

10:09PM: 258 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux’s 70%-30% lead is holding steady, while Jenkins is up 60%-40% over on the GOP side of the fence.  17673 Democratic and 13577 GOP votes have been counted so far.

9:58PM: 175 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a commanding 70%-30% lead over Jackson, and Jenkins is holding steady on the GOP side.  So far, 12654 Democratic and 9549 Republican ballots have been counted.

9:51PM: 111 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux is up 71%-29% over Jackson, while Jenkins is leading 61%-39% in the GOP primary.

9:45PM: 70 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a 68%-32% lead over Jackson, with most of Baton Rouge still counting ballots.  Let’s look at turnout: So far, 6306 Democratic votes and 3696 Republican votes have been counted.  Sure, some of this could be attributed to Dixiecrat overhang, but I’ll take it.

9:37PM: 22 of 512 precincts reporting.  Cazayoux has a 64%-36% lead, while Jenkins leans Calongne by roughly the same margin.  Democrats are also opening up a significant turnout gap here.

9:26PM: With 2 of 512 precincts reporting, Cazayoux has a 73%-27% lead over Jackson.  Jenkins is at 63% on the GOP side.  Turnout is roughly even so far.

Polls are now closed in the run-off elections to decide the Dem and GOP nominees in the special election to replace retiring Rep. Richard Baker (R).  We’ll be tracking the returns as they come in.

State Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) has raised and spent more money than his primary opponent, state Rep. Michael Jackson, but Jackson’s base is in the more populous Baton Rouge while Cazayoux hails from the more rural Pointe Coupee Parish.  Still, Cazayoux has to be considered the favorite tonight for the Democratic nomination.

On the GOP side, both candidates are decidedly second tier (and that’s being generous): Christian activist and community publisher Woody Jenkins (famous for, uh, losing elections), and lobbyist Linda Calongne.

As Jeremiah notes in the comments below, turnout will be worth watching tonight.

• NJ-02: Democrats have finally bagged a challenger to take on entrenched GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo: Cape May City Councilor and businessman David Kurkowski.  Local Dems cited Kurkowski’s ability to fundraise in their endorsement of his candidacy.  

  While dislodging LoBiondo would be a tough task, we should be able to count on Kurkowski to hold the incumbent’s feet to the fire in this D+4 district.  Kurkowski has pledged to wage a “vigorous campaign” that will tie LoBiondo to George Bush and his support for the war in Iraq.  If we’re lucky, an aggressive campaign by Kurkowski could help split Republican resources in a state where the GOP will already be defending two open seats, and quite possibly the seat of ultra-conservative Rep. Scott Garrett in NJ-05. (H/T: Blue Jersey)

• MS-01: GOP primary run-off loser and former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough issued a non-endorsement endorsement of the Republican nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis:
  

  He also urged fellow Republicans to “unite behind all three of our nominees in North Mississippi – Senator Cochran, Senator Wicker and Mayor Davis. We have come too far as a state to turn back now.”

  But McCullough spokesman Brad Davis said the statement was “absolutely not” a personal endorsement of the runoff winner.

  When asked if it was a show of support for the party and not the person, Brad Davis said, “That’s a good way to put it.”

  Davis will face off with Democrat Travis Childers in an April 22nd special election.  If no candidate receives 50% of the vote, there will be a May 13th runoff.  (Meaning that, to fill the open seat of Roger Wicker, voters in MS-01 might be going to the polls four times to determine the winner.)  Regional rivalry may play a role here — Davis is from the fast-growing DeSoto County, a suburban area near Memphis, while Childers hails from the more rural Prentiss County.  If Childers can consolidate the non-DeSoto vote and keep Democratic enthusiasm high, this race could be a surprise worth watching.

• LA-06: Democrat Don Cazayoux just picked up another endorsement in the special election to replace retiring GOP Rep. Richard Baker — this time from the National Rifle Association (from the House Race Hotline):
  

  The NRA on 4/3 endorsed Cazayoux. The NRA gave Cazayoux an “A” and urged all members, gun owners and sportsmen to vote for Cazayoux. Cazayoux: “I’m proud to have the endorsement of NRA and the million of gun owners and sportsmen they represent across the country and here in Louisiana. We’ve passed important legislation in Louisiana over the last few years to protect the rights of gun owners, and I will continue that work in Congress to ensure our 2nd amendment rights are protected”.

  Runoff: 4/5; Special election: 5/3.

• NJ-Sen: Full results from a poll conducted by Joel Benenson for the DSCC (4/1-2, likely Democratic primary voters):
  

  Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 52%
  
  Rob Andrews (D): 21%

  Juan Melli offers some more insights over at Blue Jersey.

• NY-26: Too much of a good thing?  Two wealthy candidates vying for the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds are pledging to spend $1 million each on their campaigns.

While Democrats are licking their chops over the chance to snag another special election victory in the special election to replace Rep. Richard Baker (R), Republicans are reportedly fretting over the chance that the GOP front-runner could end up losing the seat to Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux.  From Roll Call:

Portions of a GOP poll conducted March 17-18 and obtained by Roll Call showed Jenkins down three points in a head-to-head matchup with Cazayoux. That’s not great math to begin with in a district that gave President Bush a 19-point margin of victory in the 2004 presidential campaign and repeatedly sent former Rep. Richard Baker (R) to Congress by large margins.

But the numbers get worse when looking at specific important voting blocs in the Baton Rouge-based 6th district. Men 55 and older preferred Cazayoux 51 percent to 38 percent, voters who turned out in the special March primary would vote for Cazayoux 53 percent to 39 percent and those voters who said they are definitely going to vote in the special preferred Cazayoux by nine points.

Cazayoux will face off with state Rep. Michael Jackson in the Democratic runoff election this Saturday, while Woody Jenkins will square off with lobbyist Laurinda Calongne for the GOP nod.  The winners of the runoff will advance to the special general election on May 3rd.