Tag: MT-Sen

• DE-Sen: Here’s an amusing look back at the Delaware race, where it turns out that Christine O’Donnell raised $7.3 million over the course of the campaign (a somewhat large improvement on her $63K from her previous Senate bid) and then proceeded to lose by 16 points. O’Donnell apparently had the same problem that I suspected that Sharron Angle did (though we don’t have any confirmation on Angle yet)… there weren’t any media outlets with available slots to pour all that late-breaking money into.

• MO-Sen: Jim Talent has offered his timeline on publicly deciding whether or not to run for Senate (which has seemed to get less likely over the last few days, if you believe the scuttlebutt). He won’t decide until the New Year, and possibly won’t announce anything until the state GOP’s Lincoln Day festivities in mid-February.

• MT-Sen: PPP offered some GOP Senate primary numbers, although I’m not sure how useful they are given that Marc Racicot, the former Governor and RNC chair, eats up a lion’s share despite not having really ever been associated with the race. (Although, who knows… maybe this will suddenly prompt him to get interested.) At any rate, the two guys with name rec, Racicot and Rep. Denny Rehberg, are at 40 and 37, respectively. The two little-known guys who are actually the ones running (so far), Steve Daines and Neil Livingstone, are at 5 and 4.

• RI-Sen: Although John Robitaille seems to be getting all the attention in terms of the GOP’s pick to challenge Sheldon Whitehouse, Warwick mayor Scott Avedisian is still stoking the fires of vague interest. Avedisian is a moderate and an ally of newly-elected Gov. Lincoln Chafee.

• WA-Sen: The race against Maria Cantwell seems to already be a casualty write-off for the GOP, seeing as how the state’s entire viable GOP bench (aka Rob McKenna) will most likely be running for Governor. The state GOP’s usual M.O. in such situations is to turn to some random rich guy as a place-holder (see Mike McGavick, Cantwell’s 2006 opponent, or oft-threatened but never-happened candidate John Stanton), but it may turn out that Clint Didier, the tea partier whose GOP primary bid against Dino Rossi didn’t go anywhere and who’s now interested in trying again, gets left holding the bag this time. Didier, who refused to endorse Rossi and castigated him at every turn, isn’t likely to be able to count on much NRSC or even state GOP goodwill this time, though.

• MN-Gov: Nothing like a little post-electoral cat fud, even if it means exiling pretty much your entire pantheon of elder statesmen. The state GOP just excommunicated more than a dozen key moderate Republicans who had jumped ship to support Independence Party candidate Tom Horner in view of Tom Emmer’s extremism. These aren’t just run-of-the-mill PCO-types, either: the list includes an ex-Senator (David Durenberger) and two ex-Govs (Arne Carlson and Al Quie). And if you’re wondering how Emmer is faring in the court of public opinion amidst the recount non-drama, PPP’s out with a snap poll: by a 68-22 margin, voters think it’s time for Emmer to give up (which matches the 68-21 margin of people who think that Mark Dayton was the election’s rightful winner).

• OH-17: Wondering who the third-party candidate who fared the best was, in this year’s House races? It was none other than ex-con ex-Rep. Jim Traficant, who picked up 16.1% of the vote against Tim Ryan, the best showing of any indie with both Dem and GOP opponents (and he did it without spending a penny). He fared better than Randy Wilkinson in FL-12, who ran a more credible campaign and was widely viewed as a potential spoiler. In fact, Wilkinson finished 3rd at 10.7%; some random conservative, Dan Hill, got 12% in NE-03 by running to Adrian Smith’s right, although that was a race that Dems barely contested. What about MI-01’s Glenn Wilson, who made waves for approximately one day with his pledge to spend $2 million of his own money (although it’s dubious if he spent more than a fraction of that)? He barely registered, at 7%.

• WV-01: Here’s an unexpected comeback, and probably one that’s not a good idea. Alan Mollohan, who couldn’t survive a Dem primary and most likely wouldn’t have won the general even if he’d gotten over the first hurdle, is publicly expressing his interest in running in 2012 for his old seat. He’s opened an FEC account for ’12 and has been reaching out behind the scenes.

• NY-St. Sen.: This is basically a Hail Mary at this point, but when it’s the chance to tie the state Senate, it’s a chance you take. Craig Johnson officially filed an appeal yesterday of the judge’s ruling certifying Jack Martins as winner in SD-7 (giving the GOP a 32-30 edge there). He’s asking for a hand count, to see if any votes were missed in the state’s switch this year to electronic voting machines. Given the recent abject fail in finding all the votes cast in Queens, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

• Redistricting: The Fix has another installment in its ongoing redistricting previews, this time focusing on Georgia. The GOP-controlled state legislature should have little trouble adding a GOP-friendly 14th seat in Atlanta’s northern tier of exurbs, where most of the state’s growth has occurred. The real question will be whether they can do anything to turf out either of the two remaining Dems in slightly lean-Dem districts in south Georgia, Sanford Bishop or John Barrow? Although neither of their seats are truly minority-majority, the VRA might be implicated if their seats get messed with too much. Bishop’s GA-02 is likely to be shored up in order to make freshman Austin Scott safer in the 8th. Barrow seems like an easier target, but to do so would not only risk VRA litigation but also make Jack Kingston’s 1st less safe, meaning incumbent protection might be the result.

• Demographics: There was a massive dump of U.S. Census data yesterday, although none of it is the actual hard count from 2010 (which is due by the end of the month, including state populations for reapportionment purposes). Instead, this is the Demographic Analysis (used to estimate undercounts in the actual count, although there won’t be any adjustments made to the counts for redistricting purposes in this cycle). The big number was the total population estimate, ranging from 306 million to 313 million, with a midrange estimate of 308.5 million (which would put the average House district, for redistricting, at 709K). Also worth noting: Hispanics accounted for essentially the nation’s growth in youth population in the last decade, and Hispanics have grown from 17% of the nation’s under-20 population in 2000 to 22% now; without Hispanics, the number of young people would have actually gone down since 2000.

• AK-Sen: There’s yet another lawsuit coming out of the Joe Miller camp, this one filed in state court. It essentially rehashes claims he’s already made at the federal level, but adds two new allegations: voters without identification were allowed to take ballots in some precincts, and that in a few precincts handwriting samples suggest that the same person completed multiple ballots. Miller’s ultimate goal is a hand count of the entire race, which could delay Lisa Murkowski’s swearing-in past January. The question, however, is starting to arise: who’s paying for all this? None of Miller’s former friends seem interested any more: the NRSC has gone silent, and the Tea Party Express still offers verbal support but isn’t ponying up any money. Only Jim DeMint continues to offer any financial support (with a Joe Miller fundraising button on his Senate Conservatives website).

• MT-Sen: This could complicates matters for Denny Rehberg, turning this primary into an establishment vs. teabagger duel. Two right-wing groups, Concerned Women PAC and Gun Owners of America, have already lent their support to businessman Steve Daines, who has already announced his bid for the GOP nod here.

• NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand has to do it all over again in 2012 (this one was just a special election), and rumors are that former Bush administration official Dan Senor, who spurned a run this time, is interested in a run next time. It’s hard to imagine, if Gillibrand could top 60% in a year as bad as this, that Senor could somehow overperform that in a presidential year.

• MN-Gov: The recount is officially on. The State Canvassing Board, whom you all got to know really well in early 2009, ruled that the 8,770 vote lead for Mark Dayton is less than one-half of a percentage point and that an automatic recount is triggered. The count starts on Monday and should end in mid-December, allowing time for swearing in on Jan. 3 (unless things really go haywire). This comes after a variety of legal maneuvering from both sides, including a fast Minnesota Supreme Court ruling against Tom Emmer, in response to his desire to force counties to comb through voter rolls and eliminate votes that were “excessively cast.” No word yet on whether the Board will honor Dayton’s request for ways to streamline the process (and minimize Emmer’s chances for challenges).

• MT-Gov: There had been rumors that Democratic ex-Rep. Pat Williams would seek the Dem gubernatorial nomination (potentially setting up a match with his successor, ex-Rep. Rick Hill), despite being 72 years old. He’s now saying that he won’t. Williams is so old-school that he used to represent MT-01, before the state got smooshed together into one at-large district.

• CT-05: Random rich guy Mark Greenberg, who finished third in the GOP primary in the 5th this year (although with nearly 30% of the vote), says he’ll be running again in 2012. Added incentive: he says he expects this to be an open seat as Chris Murphy runs for Senate.

• FL-17: Newly elected Frederica Wilson is already challenging the old ways of the House… going after the long-standing prohibition against wearing hats on the House floor. She says it’s “sexist,” saying that women’s indoor hat use is different from men’s. Wilson owns at least 300 hats, she says. (If Regina Thomas ever makes it to the House, maybe the Hat Caucus can gain some momentum.)

• MD-01: Recently-defeated Frank Kratovil seems like one of the likeliest losses to run again in 2012, especially since the Dem-controlled Maryland legislature is likely to serve him up a much Dem-friendlier district (as many of our in-house mapmakers have suggested). He isn’t saying yes yet, but says he will “consider” it.

• NH-02: Another possible re-run is Ann McLane Kuster, who performed pretty well in a narrow loss to Charlie Bass in the open 2nd. There have been lots of Beltway rumors that her run is imminent, and some are pointing to encouragement straight from the White House for her to try again.

• NY-01: We’ve essentially finished the absentee ballot count, and the news is very good here: Tim Bishop, after leading by only 15 last night, is now leading by a comparatively-gargantuan 235 with all absentees counted. However, we’re nowhere near a resolution, as attention now turns to the court battle over 2,000 challenged ballots (Randy Altschuler has challenged 1,261, while Bishop has challenged 790). Still, Bishop’s spokesperson is saying they’re “very confident” that they’ve won this one.

• NY-23: Yeesh, Bill Owens is actually saying he might vote for John Boehner for Speaker or abstain instead of Nancy Pelosi when it comes to a floor vote, saying Pelosi is too liberal. (This despite saying he voted for her, rather than Heath Shuler, in the caucus vote.) Also, not that it matters at this point, but this race wound up being closer than the Election Day count indicated: Matt Doheny picked up 1,982 previously-unknown votes in the recanvass of Fulton County, taking Owens’ margin down to 1,795 overall, and making it all the clearer that we owe this victory entirely to 3rd-party bearer-of-cat-fud Doug Hoffman.

• Odds and ends: The Fix has a massive list of people considering rematches in 2012, most of which we’ve already dealt with before (including Kuster and Kratovil, above). Other names that we haven’t listed include Brad Ellsworth (either for Gov, Senate, or his old IN-08), Christine O’Donnell in Delaware (not unexpected, since she runs every 2 years anyway), Glenn Nye, and Allen Boyd (despite his losing very thoroughly to Steve Southerland).

• AL-St. House: The inevitable realignment at the legislative level in Alabama finally happened, and happened all at once instead of slow drips. Four conservative Democrats in the state House changed to the GOP, bringing the GOP numbers up to not just a majority but a supermajority in one fell swoop. The Madison County (Huntsville) Clerk also announced her switch, too.

• CA-AG: At this point, it’s all over but the shouting in the AG race, as Kamala Harris now leads Steve Cooley by 43,000 votes (with 500K votes still left to count). While the AP hasn’t called it, LA Weekly has decided it’s a done deal.

• Chicago mayor: Roland Burris has aparently thrown his well-traveled hat into the ring for the Chicago mayoral race, as he’ll need a new job in a week or so. Supporters filed his candidate paperwork yesterday, the deadline for filing (although he has yet to officially say that he’s running). Somehow, I can only see this helping Rahm Emanuel, by further splitting the African-American vote (already divided between Danny Davis and another ex-Senator, Carol Mosely Braun).

• Redistricting: There’s been some sudden buzz about switching North Carolina to an independent redistricting commission (which, of course, has to do with the GOP seizing control of the state legislature). In what is not a surprise, though, the GOP has no interest in giving up its newfound power, saying that (despite a recent PPP poll showing wide support for such a commission) there isn’t any time to move on the constitutional amendment that would create a commission (something that they generally supported up until, y’know, this month). Also on the redistricting front, check out the Fix’s latest installment in its state-by-state series, focusing today on Indiana, where GOP control over the trifecta is likely to make things worse for IN-02’s Joe Donnelly (just how much worse, we have yet to find out)… and, if they wanted to experiment with dummymanders, possibly IN-07’s Andre Carson, too.

• Demographics: Here’s some interesting demographic slice-and-dice from the Washington Post: Dems increased their vote share in big counties (500K+) from 49% in 1994 to 54% this year, but lost even further in smaller counties, from 43% in 1994 to 39% this year. The districts the GOP won were disproportionately older, whiter, and less educated. And on a related note, check out these maps and the interesting ways they represent population density around the U.S. Note any similarities between these maps and where Democratic votes are concentrated?

Public Policy Polling (11/10-13, Montana voters):

Jon Tester (D-inc): 46

Denny Rehberg (R): 48

Jon Tester (D-inc): 48

Steve Daines (R): 37

Jon Tester (D-inc): 46

Neil Livingstone (R): 35

Jon Tester (D-inc): 42

Mark Racicot (R): 49

(MoE: ±2.9%)

It’s a bit of a mixed bag for Jon Tester. He’s leading his announced opponents — ’08 Lt. Gov. nominee Steve Daines and “crisis management” CEO Neil Livingstone — by double-digit spreads, and his job approval rating is 50/40, a spread so healthy that PPP is calling him one of the most popular Senators in the country. However, if current Rep. Denny Rehberg took the plunge, Tester would be in for a real challenge. (And an even bigger challenge if John Cornyn somehow managed to lure ex-Gov. Mark Racicot into the race, but that seems unlikely.)

Rehberg has until March 2012 to decide on the race, which buys him plenty of time to assess the situation — and given the B-grade level of Livingstone and Baines, he’d have a good shot at clearing the field, too, unless one or both of them decides to run as an out-and-proud insurgent teabagger.

• AK-Sen: The big news out of Alaska is that Joe Miller is now suing to disenfranchise bad spellers. It’s probably his only path to victory, forcing the state to adhere to a strict absolutely-spelled-correctly standard for “Lisa Murkowski” instead of a looser standard of analyzing voter intent. Miller’s lawyer is asking a federal judge for a hearing this afternoon, seeing as how the state is planning to begin the process of checking and counting the 92,000 write-in ballots cast. Miller did get a leg up from the absentee count (of 27,000 additional ballots) issued yesterday, though. Murkowski went into yesterday leading by 13,439 votes (a 7% spread) and came out leading by 11,333 (a 5% spread). That’s not the end of the absentee and early-vote count, either; another 12,000 remain to be counted, on top of all the write-in analysis.

• MA-Sen: I wonder just what the heck Marty Meehan is planning to do with his millions of dollars ($4.5 mil — compare that with likely candidate Mike Capuano’s $91K CoH!) in cash on hand, currently getting moldy in some bank vault. The ex-Rep. and current university president deferred on yet another Senate run, saying he won’t challenge Scott Brown in 2012. At any rate, even with the most-loaded potential challenger out (short of Some Millionaire showing up and swamping the race with self-funding), the Beltway CW still is still treating Scott Brown as the most endangered GOPer for 2012, and that seems to have gotten amplified with the generally-strong top-to-bottom performance of Dems last week in the Bay State, suggesting that the Senate special election may have operated in its own little unusual vacuum.

• ME-Sen: Turnabout’s fair play, I guess. With the DC press trying to drum up some drama out of (possibly non-existent) GOP overtures to get Joe Manchin and Ben Nelson to switch parties, now there’s word from, uh, somebody about Dem outreach to Olympia Snowe to get her to switch (and avoid a likely teabagging in a 2012 GOP primary).

• MT-Sen: We mentioned businessman and losing 2008 Lt. Gov. candidate Steve Daines yesterday as a potential challenger to Jon Tester, and it looks like he’s already moving full speed ahead. He’ll be announcing his bid this Saturday.

• NE-Sen: Right on cue, here’s the first Republican-sponsored poll of the 2012 cycle showing Ben Nelson in deep shit. The poll, commissioned by the state Republican party from Voter/Consumer Research, finds Nelson trailing the one announced candidate, AG Jon Bruning, by a 50-35 margin. (He also trails Generic R 42-32, and Gov. Dave Heineman 59-31, although Heineman has already said he’s not running.) Interestingly, he’s still above water on his approvals, which are 50/41… but it’s a red enough state that that may not be enough to save him.

• NV-Sen: PPP is turning its attention to 2012 already, and its first poll is a juicy place to start: the GOP primary in Nevada. This is something of a surprise, at least upending the conventional wisdom: John Ensign has significant leads over both his highest-profile potential primary opponents. He beats Rep. Dean Heller 45-37, and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki 55-27. Those leads may not hold up across a campaign, though, as Ensign has much higher name rec than either opponent. He’s at 64/23 (remember, this is only Republicans in the sample, who, if David Vitter is any indication, are firm believers in the principle of IOKIYAR), while Heller is at 56/8 and Krolicki is at 45/9.

• RI-Sen: The names are also floating up for potential Republican challengers to Sheldon Whitehouse, with so-so approvals but not considered terribly vulnerable in his blue-state perch. State GOP chair Giovanni Cicione is publicly weighing a bid (although he’s also saying that he’s pushing outgoing Gov. Don Carcieri to make a bid, though he doesn’t sound interested). Two other possibilities mentioned in the article include Warwick mayor Scott Avedisian and Cranston mayor Allen Fung.

• WV-Sen: This whole thing is getting a little too meta for me: with the perception out there of having gotten publicly burned on their attempts to get Joe Manchin to switch parties, now NRSC spokespersons are trying to say that the whole rumors of the outreach (which may or may not have actually happened) originated with the Manchin camp, so that he can bolster his bipartisan credentials. I can’t decide whether the two camps are truly playing 3-D chess with each other or it’s just devolved into high school mean-girls behavior at this point.

• CA-11, CA-20: Jerry McNerney keeps adding to his lead, making this one looking likely to get called soon. He’s now up by 2,269 votes after a batch came in from blue Alameda County. We don’t have any specific new numbers to report for you further south in the 20th, but the long-awaited dump of Fresno County ballots (where Jim Costa has led by a significant margin over Andy Vidak) is scheduled for later today, which is expected to push Costa into the lead (Vidak currently leads by only 145 right now, thanks to his home base of Kings County).

• FL-22: Allen West’s hiring of a controversial talk show host as his chief of staff (payback for her constant boosterism of his campaign) is not only great fodder for the sheer litany of terrible things she’s said (click the link for more), but it also may run into ethical and even FCC problems if she keeps her other job as radio host. The counsel for the House Committee on Standards of Ethical Conduct said the situation is “potentially problematic” because of conflicts of interest, and a different expert says it may also pave the way for demands for equal time on the air for whoever West’s 2012 opponent is.

• PA-11: You may remember Corey O’Brien, the Lackawanna County Commissioner who lost the Dem primary in the 11th to Paul Kanjorski back in May. With the elderly Kanjorski not likely to try for a rematch, O’Brien looks to be in the driver’s seat with regards to the Dem nomination for 2012 to go up against Lou Barletta in this D+4 district (though that’s subject to the redistricting pen, of course). The buzz is he’s a near-definite candidate, although he might face a primary bout with Scranton mayor (and, briefly, gubernatorial candidate) Chris Doherty.

• DCCC: In case you didn’t know, lawyers get really expensive really fast. One of Chris Van Hollen’s last acts as DCCC head is to send out a fundraising blast to donors, trying to round up $100K to cover potential recount activity in (according to him) nine different races.

• House: Nate Silver’s new piece matches what I’ve seen a lot of in the comments (and my own perceptions, as well): the idea that 2012 should be a year of happy hunting for Dems in the House (although, especially with redistricting giving a boost to the GOP, a heavy lift to get back into the majority). The balance of mismatched seats has switched dramatically: now there are 12 Dems in seats that Obama lost (down from 50), and 55 GOPers in seats that Obama won (up from 28). Even if that’s old news to you, the array of graphs is worth checking out.

• IA-St. Sen.: It looks like things have been finalized in Iowa, and the state Senate is at least one closely-decided legislative chamber that we pulled out of the fire. Democrat Tod Bowman’s 71-vote victory in SD-13 gives the Dems 26-24 control over the body. (One other outstanding race, where the GOPer is narrowly leading, could also break for the Dems.) That leaves the Oregon state Senate as the chamber that’s still probably the biggest question mark.

• Chicago mayor: We’ve been meaning for a while now to do a comprehensive who’s-in-who’s-out post about the mayoral race in Chicago, but here’s a potentially big name that deserves immediate mention… if only because he’s in the House, and if there’s one thing SSP is all about at this point in the cycle, it’s the Open Seat Watch. Rep. Danny Davis of IL-07 on Chicago’s West Side (who’d previously flirted with and decided against a bid for Cook Co. Executive) is now expressing interest in the race, saying he’s “ready to run.” In a boost to his prospects, a coalition of black religious and community leaders that had previously supported ex-Sen. Carol Mosely Braun for the job has reversed course, and is now backing Davis.

• FL-Sen: It seems like the “permanent campaign” is pretty much the new normal these days, as everybody’s already talking about who’s gonna run in 2012. In Florida, the list of potential GOP challengers to Bill Nelson is deep even if Jeb Bush doesn’t follow through on an unlikely bid. Appointed (and soon to be ex-)Sen. George LeMieux seems to be ramping up for a bid, although he might suffer for his Charlie Crist ties. Other GOPers mentioned include Rep. Connie Mack IV, state House majority leader Adam Hasner, state Senate president Mike Haridopolos, and newly-elected Rep. Daniel Webster.

• MA-Sen: As for the Dem field in Massachusetts, one prominent potential candidate is staying mum for now. Boston mayor Tom Menino welcomes the attention but is “focused on being mayor.”

• MT-Sen: And then there’s Montana, where freshman Jon Tester is probably one of the most vulnerable Senate Dems. At-large GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg is usually the first name you hear mentioned in that context, but he seems to be in no hurry to decide. Two other GOPers are making moves, though: businessman and losing 2008 Lt. Gov. nominee Steve Daines, and Neil Livingstone, CEO of a “crisis management firm” and frequent anti-terrorism talking head, are both actively looking at the race.

• WV-Sen, NE-Sen: It looks like Joe Manchin’s spokesperson’s denial yesterday of any interest in switching parties wasn’t vehement enough, because Manchin had to reiterate that, no, he isn’t considering it; in addition, Senate GOP spokespersons said those conversations alleged by Fox News apparently never even took place. The same situation applies in Nebraska, where Ben Nelson says that not only is he not interested in switching but that no one has reached out to him to do so. Encouragingly, at least from a rhetorical standpoint, Nelson also says “the party hasn’t left me.”

• MS-Gov: With two well-liked former Reps. idling around wondering what to do next year (Gene Taylor and Travis Childers), you’d think the Dems might actually be able to field a competitive candidate for Mississippi next year. According to at least one local pundit, a Childers comeback doesn’t seem likely (more interested in state party chair), while Taylor seems to have running for something in mind but potentially just his old seat again in ’12.

• OH-Gov: Here’s a good post-mortem on Ted Strickland from Jonathan Chait, which suggests that Strickland managed to keep things close (despite the rest of the wipeout in Ohio) because a solid campaign that focused on just the right amount of populism. He ran well ahead of national Dems on average among groups like seniors and persons with high school educations.

• FL-22: Is Allen West the Bizarro World version of Alan Grayson? He’s an ideological mismatch with his Florida district that leans the wrong way away from his party let alone his own amped-up version of its message, he has no built-in self-censor like most politicians, and he was elected more so by nationwide online supporters than the locals. And now he’s hiring from his own echo chamber, turning for his Chief of Staff not a Capitol Hill pro but the conservative talk show host who helped bolster his campaign. Joyce Kaufman is the one who said on her show this summer that “if ballots don’t work, bullets will.”

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman is truly the gift that keeps on giving. The election’s over, and he’s still giving. He now says he didn’t mean to send out a statement that he put out last week post-election, calling local Republican bosses the real “spoilers in this race.” (Hoffman, of course, pulled in 6% of the vote last week, saving Bill Owens yet again.)

• NY-25: Trailing slightly with the absentee-counting process looming, Dan Maffei (like Tim Bishop in NY-01) is requesting a hand count of ballots (the electronic voting machines generate a paper trail). A judge also ruled that both camps may inspect the list of 11,000 absentee ballot requests, a prelim to each camp developing the list of which ballots they want to challenge.

• DCCC: It’s sounding more and more like Rep. Steve Israel will be on tap to head the DCCC for the 2012 cycle. He was one of the three key deputies at the DCCC last year (along with Joe Crowley, who seems to be edging away from the job, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who seems interested too but not in as strong a position with the Pelosi-led core of leadership).

• House: Here’s an interesting piece of trivia: only eight (8) House Dems did better, percentage-wise in 2010 than they did in 2008. Most are from safe urban districts (most notably Nancy Pelosi herself, despite the seven figures the right-roots raised for her opponent), although Jim Himes and Chellie Pingree were in competitive races and managed to gain ground.

• Polltopia: PPP puts together a helpful table of approval ratings on the various Senators up for re-election in 2012. It corresponds pretty closely with the general conventional wisdom about who’s vulnerable: Joe Lieberman is in worst shape at 33/54, followed by Claire McCaskill and Debbie Stabenow (who actually are in slightly worse condition than John Ensign, though his problems go well beyond his approvals). Interestingly, the best-liked Senator statewide (Olympia Snowe at 56/34) may also be one of the most vulnerable, not in a general but to a teabagging in the GOP primary.

It’s still the week of Election Day, which means it’s time to take an incredibly premature look at the Senate races developing in 2012. As you may have heard, the map favors the GOP, suggesting that the party may have their second big cycle in a row. However, theoretically, the Democrats had a favorable map in 2010 and they ended that without a single pick-up.

Instead of making predictions that are sure to be outdated in two months, let alone two years, I’m embracing the uncertainty. For each race, this preview will look at:

The best-case and worst-case scenario for the incumbent party; a rating on which scenario is more likely to happen (1 for worst-case, 10 for best-case)

Likely candidates, mostly made up of this year’s “Tommy Thompsons”. If you’ll recall, for most of 2009 and early 2010, pundits and observers thought the only way Russ Feingold would be in trouble is if Tommy Thompson ran. In nearly every state, there’s the “obvious” candidate(s) that conventional wisdom cements as the “only viable” candidate(s)-Schwarzenegger in California, Huckabee in Arkansas, Napolitano in Arizona, and these projections are more often wrong than right.

Retirement shock: every cycle features retirements, some expected and some unexpected. This looks at where such a retirement would fall. (1 for expected (like Bunning), 10 for completely shocking (like Bayh))

And for kicks and giggles, a “cattle call” to be preserved for posterity, so we can look at this diary 23 months from now and look at all the things we didn’t know would happen.

Democrats (and those who caucus):

California, Diane Feinstein

Best-case scenario: Given the lean of the state and disinterest among strong contenders, Feinstein fails to attract a major nominee and runs against a Dick Mountjoy-esque candidate.

Worst-case scenario: California’s budget woes only get worse under Gov. Brown, resulting in high dissatisfaction across the state; the GOP nominates a Hispanic candidate for President or Vice-President while other Hispanic national stars become more prominent, stopping or even reversing the hold Democrats have on the Hispanic vote; Obama’s victory in California is secured while he is mired campaigning full-time in a dozen battleground states away from the Pacific West, so he spends little time getting out the vote. Feinstein loses in a squeaker to a moderate, governance-minded Republican.

Scenario rating: 6 out of 10; Feinstein will probably pick up a more serious challenger, but have little problem defending her seat.

Possible candidates: Tom Campbell, Steve Poizner, Steve Cooley

Retirement shock: 5 out of 10; At age 77, she’s far from “old” for the Senate, and she stated she’s running again at a recent Boxer rally.

Race rating: DEM Favored

Connecticut, Joe Lieberman

Best-case scenario: Lieberman retires or runs and is easily defeated in the primary.

Worst-case scenario: Lieberman defects and runs as a Republican, or Lieberman runs third-party and who knows what happens.

Scenario rating: ??? out of 10; who knows?

Possible candidates: Chris Murphy, Joe Courtney, Ned Lamont, Sam Caliguiri, Tom Foley, Rob Simmons

Retirement shock: 3 out of 10; it wouldn’t shock anyone, but it’s not expected.

Race rating: Lean DEM

Delaware, Tom Carper

Best-case scenario: With no bench and Carper’s decision to run again, the GOP leaves the race unchallenged, or worse, nominates Christine O’Donnell.

ALTERNATIVE: Carper retires and Beau Biden decides to run for the seat.

Worst-case scenario: Carper decides to retire, and Mike Castle decides to run; having learned their lesson last time, he is unchallenged for the nomination.

Scenario rating: 8 out of 10; I think a Carper-Biden swap is likely, and the reason why Biden didn’t run in 2010.

Possible candidates: Beau Biden, Mike Castle, Christine O’Donnell, Michele Rollins

Retirement shock: 2 out of 10; Carper has repeatedly denied health issues but has had a long and successful political career. At age 63, he could easily run again but his retirement likely wouldn’t catch anyone off guard.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Florida, Bill Nelson

Best-case scenario: Rick Scott implodes as a Governor; Obama makes a major push to win Florida again; the GOP nomination is beset with infighting and a far-right and battle-fatigued candidate emerges from the scrum.

Worst-case scenario: The GOP nominates a solid candidate that keeps the party unified; the economy stays in similar shape; Marco Rubio is on the 2012 ticket or otherwise barnstorms around the state with his arm around the shoulder of the GOP nominee.

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; Nelson will be a big target, and Crist’s defection left the state GOP remarkably solidified. There are a number of GOPers on the bench that could make this a marquee race.

Possible candidates: George LeMiuex, Jeb Bush, Connie Mack IV

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Daniel Akaka, Hawaii

Best-case scenario: Akaka runs for re-election and Linda Lingle, Duke Aiona, and Charles Djou pass on the race.

Worst-case scenario: Akaka doesn’t run for re-election and Linda Lingle, Duke Aiona, or Charles Djou runs.

Scenario rating: 4 out of 10; Akaka says he’s “definitely running again”, but either way I think one of those three runs. Half of either scenario coming true would make this a 5 out of 10, but since I think Akaka’s retirement is moderately possible, I’ll downgrade it to 4.

Possible candidates: Linda Lingle, Duke Aiona, Charles Djou, Ed Case, Mufi Hannemann

Retirement shock: 4 out of 10

Race rating: DEM Favored

Ben Cardin, Maryland

Best-case scenario: Cardin is ignored in his bid for a second term.

Worst-case scenario: Some scandal tars the entire state party and Bob Ehrlich runs.

Scenario rating: 10 out of 10; Ehrlich has said he’s done with elections and Michael Steele is running for RNC Chairman again.

Possible candidates: Mary Kane

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10; Cardin is a freshman and will likely hold the seat as long as he wants.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Debbie Stabenow, Michigan

Best-case scenario: A brutal GOP primary made up of lackluster candidates produces a far-right but unqualified nominee.

Worst-case scenario: A pragmatic-minded GOP candidate gets the party unified behind him/her and runs a solid campaign against Stabenow.

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; There’s always the potential for a sideshow, but Rick Snyder’s nomination and landslide victory provides a good template for the state GOP to use. If the party gets its act together, Stabenow will be in real trouble.

Possible candidates: John Engler, Terri Lynn Land, Candice Miller, David Camp, Mike Cox

Retirement shock: 6 out of 10; it’s not particularly likely, but given the turmoil in the Michigan Democratic Party, not that many people would be searching for a reason why.

Race rating: Toss-up

Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar

Best-case scenario: Most interested parties pass on the race, preferring to take on Franken in 2014 when Obama won’t be on the ticket, and Klobuchar is given a free pass against a minor nominee.

Worst-case scenario: She attracts a major challenger.

Scenario rating: 7 out of 10; we’re now looking at the personal whims of a handful of candidates who could theoretically make this a race, but it just seems unlikely that the GOP will be playing significant offense here.

Possible candidates: Norm Coleman, Tom Emmer, Jim Ramstad, Erik Paulsen, Paul Koering, Steve Sviggum

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: DEM Favored

Missouri, Claire McCaskill

Best-case scenario: A Tea Party candidate emerges from the primary on a far-right platform.

Worst-case scenario: The GOP primary unifies behind a solid nominee.

Scenario rating: 2 out of 10; while anything can happen in a primary, the Missouri GOP seems to be able to keep things under control. This is going to be one of the top targets for the GOP, and they’ll do anything they can to keep it that way.

Possible candidates: Jim Talent, Sarah Steelman, Jo Ann Emerson, Sam Graves

Retirement shock: 9 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Montana, Jon Tester

Best-case scenario: The big name candidates decide to run for the open Governor’s seat instead of challenging him.

Worst-case scenario: The best-case scenario doesn’t happen.

Scenario rating: 2 out of 10

Possible candidates: Denny Rehberg, Marc Racicot

Retirement shock: 9 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Ben Nelson, Nebraska

Best-case scenario: The big names pass on the race and Nelson faces another underwhelming or unknown opponent.

Worst-case scenario: Dave Heineman enters the race and clears the primary field.

Best-case scenario (for Nelson, not Democrats): Nelson agrees to a deal where he switches parties in exchange for not being primaried.

Scenario rating: 2 out of 10; even if Heineman decides not to run, there are still others who would make this a competitive race.

Possible candidates: Dave Heineman, Jon Bruning, Jeff Fortenberry, Lee Terry, Adrian Smith

Retirement shock: 6 out of 10; Nelson seems to be committed to the idea of running again, which is good because Democrats really don’t have that many other options here.

Race rating: Lean GOP

New Jersey, Bob Menendez

Best-case scenario: The state unifies behind a weak nominee or several big names pass on the race, leaving perhaps an underfunded and too conservative candidate.

Worst-case scenario: A strong and pragmatic nominee emerges with the support of Chris Christie, who receives a spike in approval ratings.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; this is a purely candidate-driven race. In a state like Jersey, the Democrats have the advantage.

Possible candidates: John Crowley, Tom Kean Jr., Steve Lonegan

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico

Best-case scenario: No real challenger emerges and Bingaman coasts to another election.

Worst-case scenario: Bingaman retires and Democrats are left unprepared.

Scenario rating: 9 out of 10.

Possible candidates: Heather Wilson, Pete Domenici Jr., Allen Weh

Retirement shock: 7 out of 10; Even though he’s a five-term Senator, Bingaman is only 67 years old.

Race rating: Safe DEM

New York, Kristen Gillibrand

Best-case scenario: Like in 2010, no big name rises to the occasion to challenge her.

Worst-case scenario: Gillibrand simultaneously receives a primary challenge that empties her bank account and leaves her scatched coming out of the September primary, while a strong GOP challenger awaits.

Scenario rating: 9 out of 10; 2010 was the time for either of those two things to happen.

Possible candidates: George Pataki, Rick Lazio

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe DEM

North Dakota, Kent Conrad

Best-case scenario: Conrad runs again and with John Hoeven already in the Senate, there’s no one left to challenge him.

Worst-case scenario: Conrad retires.

Scenario rating: 7 out of 10; I don’t know what Conrad is going to do, but right now there’s no obvious reason why this would be a race.

Possible candidates: Rick Berg, Jack Dalrymple, Wayne Stenehjam

Retirement shock: 5 out of 10; after Dorgan’s retirement, I don’t think anyone would be shocked to death if this happened.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Ohio, Sherrod Brown

Best-case scenario: The GOP nominates a lackluster candidate while Obama’s ground-game massively turns out of the vote.

Worst-case scenario: The GOP nominates a solid candidate and Obama’s campaign team focuses on other battleground states.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; I think Obama will focus here, so it depends on who the nominee will be.

Possible candidates: Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mike DeWine, Mary Taylor

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Pennsylvania, Bob Casey

Best-case scenario: Casey attracts only a minor candidate, or an otherwise roughed-up or far-right candidate.

Worst-case scenario: Casey attracts a solid candidate who runs with a unified party behind him/her.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; a lot could go wrong for either side here.

Possible candidates: Jim Gerlach, Rick Santorum

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse

Best-case scenario: Sheldon Whitehouse runs for re-election.

Worst-case scenario: Whitehouse is discovered to be a serial killer.

Scenario rating: 10 out of 10

Possible candidates: Don Carcieri, John Robitaille, John Loughlin

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe DEM

Vermont, Bernie Sanders

Best-case scenario: Sanders runs for re-election.

Worst-case scenario: Vermonters suddenly decide they don’t like socialists.

Scenario rating: 10 out of 10

Possible candidates: Les Britton, Paul Beaudry, Brian Dubie, Jim Douglas

Retirement shock: 9 out of 10; Sanders is 69, but he’s also a freshman.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Virginia, Jim Webb

Best-case scenario: The Virginia GOP nominates someone from the far-right, like Del. Bob Marshall

Worst-case scenario: Webb declines to run again, catching the party off-guard, while the GOP nominates a solid candidate.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; a lot could go wrong here for both parties.

Possible candidates: George Allen, Bob Marshall, Corey Stewart, Ken Cuccinelli, Bill Bolling, Tom Davis, Rob Wittman

Retirement shock: 5 out of 10; Webb has been low-profile and all reports indicate he doesn’t enjoy life in the Senate.

Race rating: Toss-up

Washington, Maria Cantwell

Best-case scenario: Deflated from losing in 2010, the Washington GOP gives this race a pass while focusing on the Governor’s race instead.

Worst-case scenario: Cantwell attracts a strong challenger and is caught flat-footed in campaigning.

Scenario rating: 7 out of 10; I can see a decent challenger emerging, but Cantwell will probably be fine.

Possible candidates: Clint Didier, Don Benton, Dave Reichart, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: Safe DEM

West Virginia, Joe Manchin

Best-case scenario: Manchin threads the needle of being a Washington D.C. Democratic incumbent with maintaining his popularity back home.

Worst-case scenario: Manchin is viewed as “going Washington” at the same time he’s down-ballot from Obama.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; it could really go either way here, however the GOP still needs a strong challenger.

Possible candidates: Shelley Moore Capito, Betty Ireland, David McKinley

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Wisconsin, Herb Kohl

Best-case scenario: Kohl runs for re-election.

Worst-case scenario: Kohl retires.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; I’ve heard both, but I’ve also heard of people preparing for Kohl to retire, so it looks like no one would be caught off guard.

Possible candidates: Ron Kind, Tom Barrett, Paul Ryan

Retirement shock: 2 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Republicans:

Arizona, Jon Kyl

Best-case scenario: No serious candidate emerges against Kyl

Worst-case scenario: A serious candidate emerges against Kyl

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; how serious remains to be seen, but this looks to be near the top of a short list for Democrats.

Possible candidates: Gabrielle Giffords, Terry Goddard, Felicia Rotellini

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: Lean GOP

Indiana, Richard Lugar

Best-case scenario: Lugar runs for re-election and isn’t seriously challenged

Worst-case scenario: Lugar retires or is primaried by a far-right hardliner

Scenario rating: 6 out of 10; Lugar has announced for another term, but he’s near the top of the Tea Party hitlist. We’ll see who they come up with and if they follow through.

Possible candidates: Marlin Stutzman, Brad Ellsworth

Retirement shock: 4 out of 10; Lugar will be 80 in 2012.

Race rating: GOP Favored

Maine, Olympia Snowe

Best-case scenario: Snowe isn’t primaried.

Worst-case scenario: Snowe is primaried.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; if Snowe is the nominee, she’ll coast to victory as she always has and always will. If the Tea Party is stupid enough to challenge her and wins, they’ll have given Democrats another seat for free.

Possible candidates: Chandler Woodcock, Elias Cutler, Tom Allen

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: GOP Favored

Massachusetts, Scott Brown

Best-case scenario: Martha Coakley runs again.

Worst-case scenario: Democrats put forward a strong nominee while Scott Brown has to fight to get out of the primary, if he’s even able to.

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; I see Brown getting re-nominated pretty easily, but he’ll have a tough challenger regardless.

Possible candidates: Mike Capuano, Joe Kennedy, Ted Kennedy Jr., Stephen Lynch, Ed Markey, Marty Meehan, John Tierney, Elizabeth Warren

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Mississippi, Roger Wicker

Best-case scenario: Wicker runs again.

Worst-case scenario: Some major skeleton is found in Wicker’s closet.

Scenario rating: 9 out of 10; there’s some talk of a primary challenge to Wicker, but it’s not clear who or if it would even matter.

Possible candidates: Travis Childers, Gene Taylor

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe GOP

Nevada, John Ensign

Best-case scenario: Ensign retires or resigns quietly, the GOP nominates a solid alternative, and Democrats fail to capitalize on the situation.

Worst-case scenario: Ensign somehow wins the nomination or a far-right candidate wins; meanwhile more embarrassing stuff about Ensign comes out throughout the cycle.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; this state has been a constant headache for the GOP.

Possible candidates: Brian Krolicki, Dean Heller, Dana Titus, Rory Reid, Shelley Berkley, Oscar Goodman

Retirement shock: 2 out of 10; Ensign says he’s running but that may not hold up.

Race rating: Toss-up

Tennessee, Bob Corker

Best-case scenario: Corker is unchallenged in the primary and Democrats, still reeling from 2010, decline to pursue.

Worst-case scenario: Corker gets a primary challenge and Democrats nominate a solid candidate.

Scenario rating: 8 out of 10

Possible candidates: Steve Cohen, Phil Bredesen

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe GOP

Texas, Kay Bailey Hutchison

Best-case scenario: Hutchison quietly retires and a strong GOP emerges from the primary, while Democrats pass on the race.

Worst-case scenario: GOP infighting produces a roughed-up nominee while the Democrats coalesce behind an up-and-comer.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; it could go either way.

Possible candidates: Michael Williams, Roger Williams, Elizabeth Jones, David Dewhurst, Tom Leppert, Bill White, John Sharp, Chet Edwards

Retirement shock: 1 out of 10; it’ll be a shock if she runs again.

Race rating: Lean GOP

Utah, Orrin Hatch

Best-case scenario: Whether Hatch is primaried or not, the GOP puts up a candidate for the race.

Worst-case scenario: Republicans nominate someone extremely radical while Jim Matheson runs for the Democrats.

Scenario rating: 1 out of 10

Possible candidates: Jason Chaffetz

Retirement shock: 4 out of 10; whether a retirement is forced or not, Hatch’s departure wouldn’t shock anyone.

Race rating: Safe GOP

Wyoming, John Barrasso

Best-case scenario: Barrasso runs again, or doesn’t.

Worst-case scenario: In the greatest paperwork snafu of history, Republicans accidentally forget to file and are without a nominee.

Scenario rating: 1 out of 10

Possible candidates: Gary Trauner

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe GOP

Summary:

Anything could happen. Everyone learned that lesson coming into the 2010 cycle. However, it strains the imagination to come up with a scenario where Mississippi, Tennessee, Utah, or Wyoming become winnable for Democrats, and states like Indiana and Maine would require a series of events to come onto the map. The only targets otherwise are Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Texas; as far as maps go, that’s pretty favorable for Republicans.

Meanwhile, it all depends on candidate recruitment, but assuming no real failures (like FL-2006 or DE-2010), Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are top targets immediately. Developments could put Minnesota, New Jersey, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin on the map, while California, Hawaii, and Washington remain long-shots.

Putting even the fringiest of races on the table, Republicans have 6 targets to defend to the Democrats 12-15. Looking at likely targets, its 4 to 8. It’s possible, like 2010 for the GOP, those 8 races all break for the incumbents while the 4 races stay as targets and others come onto the map. However, even if the 2012 cycle was a neutral cycle, this would still favor Republicans.

Now we just have to sit back, wait for retirements to come in, see if any unexpected appointments or tragic passing put another race on the map, and watch as our best combined conventional wisdom falls apart in front of our eyes.

Here’s my initial 2012 cattle call. What’s yours?

1. Nebraska (D)

2. Massachusetts (R)

3. Montana (D)

4. Virginia (D)

5. Missouri (D)

6. Nevada (R)

7. Florida (D)

8. Michigan (D)

9. Ohio (D)

10. Pennsylvania (D)

11. Arizona (R)

12. West Virginia (D)

13. Texas (R)

14. Wisconsin (D)

15. New Jersey (D)

16. Indiana (R)

17. Connecticut (D/I)

18. North Dakota (D)

19. Minnesota (D)

20. Washington (D)

21. Maine(R)

22. Hawaii (D)

23. California (D)

24. Tennessee (R)

25. Delaware (D)

26. New Mexico (D)

27. New York (D)

28. Mississippi (R)

29. Maryland (D)

30. Utah (R)

31. Vermont (D/I)

32. Rhode Island (D)

33. Wyoming (R)

• AZ-Sen: Sounds like this weekend’s GOP primary, full of barbs and genuinely angry potshots between J.D. Hayworth and John McCain had only one beneficiary: random teabagger Jim Deakin, who didn’t seem to suffer any collateral damge.

• DE-Sen: The Susan B. Anthony List has endorsed minor-league primary challenger Christine O’Donnell instead of the pro-choice Mike Castle in the GOP Senate primary in Delaware. Delaware isn’t exactly known for its large social conservative vote share, so it remains to be seen whether this changes anything.

• MT-Sen: There have been odd rumors that Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who’ll be looking for something to do starting in 2012, was considering a primary challenge to Max Baucus in 2014, motivated at least in part over their different approaches to health care reform. Schweitzer ruled out running for the Senate, though (also ruling out a possible 2012 seat-swap with Jon Tester, which also had been rumored). The possibility of what he’d do if the septuagenarian Baucus retired in 2014, though, didn’t seem to get broached.

• NH-Sen: One more addition to the Mama Grizzly corral, and it’s a big name who’s, well, a woman, but has some competition from her right: Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. Interesting that Sarah Palin refudiated the more teabaggish challengers (Ovide Lamontagne and Jim Bender).

• CO-Gov: Scott McInnis is not dropping out and is still in it to lose it, he vows, pressure and polling notwithstanding. He will, however, be repaying that $300K to the foundation that employed him to write and not plagiarize his research papers for them. However, it seems some of his underlings are clearly seeing the handwriting on the wall. Three key staffers (his policy director, political director, and regional director) all announced they were leaving the campaign.

• MI-Gov: A Detroit News/WDIV poll (conducted by the Glengariff Group) finds, like everybody else, a very close race in the Republican primary. They have Mike Cox and Peter Hoekstra both at 26, with Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Bouchard at 12, and Tom George at 2. They see a possible route for Snyder to win over undecideds, based on his low unfavorables (he’s at 36/8). Mike Bouchard also has a couple new endorsements to his name, although they’re from the spouses of two once-important politicians: the wives of ex-Gov. John Engler and ex-Sen. Spencer Abraham. The spouse endorsement, of course, is the time-honored method of boosting your behind-the-scenes friend while still not getting your hands dirty wasting political capital on a sure loss (see the Deval Patrick spousal endorsement of Mike Capuano in the MA-Sen primary).

• NE-Gov: After much speculation that the Dems were simply going to leave their ballot line blank and let Dave Heineman run unopposed to another gubernatorial term, they’ve found a willing victim candidate to fill the place left by Mark Lakers (who dropped out post-primary but pre-convention). It’s Mike Meister, a trial attorney who lost the 2002 Attorney General’s race.

• OH-Gov: John Kasich’s new ad is weak. I know, I know, I’m a partisan, but if this were a Democrat running this ad, I’d be pounding my head on the desk. His first TV spot starts out with him on the defensive, pointing out that he didn’t run Lehman Brothers, just profited handsomely off it.

• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley ruffled some feathers over the weekend by ducking the decades-long traditional debate that opens the campaign season in this civic-minded state, held by the Oregon Newspaper Publishers Association. Dudley said that he’d already had plans for a family vacation then, and Democrats predictably said that this was part of a bigger pattern of ducking issues. (Note: don’t piss off the people who buy ink by the bucket. Newspaper e-boards across the state, even the conservative ones, have been scornful.) Then he got really busted: his family vacation just happened to be combined with a visit with the RGA, and its many donors, at an event in Aspen, Colorado. Oregonians aren’t likely to begrudge him for a little downtime, but lying about what he’s doing… not so much.

• WI-Gov: This seems a little too convenient. GOP Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker’s staff just gave a no-bid contract for emergency structural engineering inspections to Graef-USA… a contractor that just happens to be a major Walker campaign contributor.

• MI-13: There are two new polls that look at the Democratic primary in the 13th, and both give a small lead to Hansen Clarke, over Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. Clarke leads 38-30 in the Detroit News/WDIV poll, and Clarke leads 44-31 in an EPIC-MRA poll released last week. That’s on top of a third poll from last week that we already mentioned that also had a Clarke lead, so I’m sensing a pattern here. There’s a handful of other candidates, but they’re only polling in low single digits… it seems like having only one credible challenger (Clarke, a termed-out state Senator) to Kilpatrick, instead of two like in 2008, is the key to winning the race.

• Legislatures: There are two different stories out today looking at the lay of the land in two legislative chambers that seem among the likeliest to flip to Republican control this year: the Iowa State House, and the Pennsylvania State House, with mentions of some of the most competitive seats in each case.

• NRCC: With the House GOP pretty much assured of gaining a significant number of seats this year, it’s been a while since we’ve done one of these. But could it be time for another… Pete Sessions Deathwatch®? Texas GOPer Tom Pauken, a Rick Perry ally who was state party chair in the 1990s, has been talking Sessions down, saying he’s “not up to the job” and he should be replaced by “a smart conservative who knows what needs to be done.” That news comes on a day when NRCC staff are busy doing damage control, mopping up behind Sessions after his comments that “we need to go back to the exact same agenda” of the Bush years.

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 43 53%

• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 29%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 57%

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 36%, Ralph Samuels (R) 48%

• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 30%, Ralph Samuels (R) 49%

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 38%, Bill Walker (R) 46%

• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 32%, Bill Walker (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 38%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 44%, Scott Walker (R) 48%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Mark Neumann (R) 43%

Also a must read today: a new piece from Nate Silver makes the point that “Hey, YouGov’s internet-only polling isn’t that methodologically bad,” but that’s by way of comparing it to Rasmussen’s sampling techniques, which (no shock to SSP readers) aren’t likely to produce a very accurate cross-section of the population.

• AR-Sen: State Sen. Gilbert Baker has generally been treated as the frontrunner in the Arkansas GOP’s Senate field, and that became a little clearer over the weekend with the state party’s straw poll. It was a close race, though: Baker got 35% (out of 700 votes), followed closely by businessman and Huckabee crony Curtis Coleman at 33. The biggest surprise may be who finished 3rd: former Army colonel and “Christian identity” enthusiast Conrad Reynolds, at 23, followed by head teabagger Tom Cox at 4, state Sen. Kim Hendren an embarrassing 2, and some dudes Fred Ramey and Buddy Rogers at 2 and 1 apiece.

• LA-Sen: Republican SoS Jay Dardenne isn’t seeming to take any steps to gear up for a primary challenge to Sen. David Vitter, but he keeps not doing anything to make the rumors go away, either. Dardenne recently said he’s considering polling the race soon, which would require setting up an exploratory committee. The only poll of a Vitter/Dardenne matchup, from R2K in March, gave Vitter an 11-pt edge.

• MT-Sen: If Max Baucus is running again in 2014, this is the kind of publicity he doesn’t need in the meantime. It turns out that Baucus, who separated from his wife last year, then began an affair with his office director Melodee Hanes — and then nominated her to be Montana’s new US Attorney. She didn’t get the position, although she does now work in a different role for the DOJ.

• NC-Sen: After a lot of back and forth, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham made his campaign for the Democratic Senate nomination official today. You can see his launch video at the above link. However, Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy, who’d floated his name out there for the Democratic nod, confirmed that he won’t be getting in the race.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: After trumpeting the rumors a few weeks ago that Rudy Giuliani was poised to enter the Senate race against Kirsten Gillibrand, now the Daily News is assessing Rudy’s decision to take on a long-term, high-profile consulting gig as security expert for the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, and concluding that he’s not looking so likely as a candidate for anything now. Meanwhile, over on the Dem side of the aisle, Manhattan borough president Scott Stringer, who briefly planned a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, has now finally offered an endorsement to her.

• PA-Sen: Rep. Joe Sestak pulled in his first endorsement from a fellow Congressperson in his primary campaign against Arlen Specter. Rep. Barney Frank offered his support today, saying that he considers Sestak one of the most valuable members of Congress.

• NV-Gov: With a recent Mason-Dixon poll showing Democratic Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman with a small lead as an independent in various gubernatorial race permutations, Goodman is now publicly weighing the race. He says he’ll have an answer “real soon,” but that his wife has already given him the green light on a run.

• AL-02: Can teabagging save Bobby Bright next year? Not by him doing it (or we can only hope)… instead, Montgomery city counilor Martha Roby, the NRCC’s pick in the race, is going to face a primary challenge from the ultra-right. Businessman Rick Barber, who’s been active in local tea parties and the 9/12 Washington march, is planning to take on Roby. He has to be encouraged by an interesting new poll from Rasmussen, which suggests that, given a choice between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Tea Party member in the upcoming election, the Tea Partier would beat the Republican, 23-18 (with the Democrat prevailing at 36%).

• PA-06: Wealthy pharma executive Steven Welch, who fled from the race in the 7th to the 6th when Patrick Meehan appeared, is now earning “RINO” labels and the enmity of the RedStaters. Welch not only gave Joe Sestak $300 in 2006, but also was a registered Democrat from 2006 through 2008. Also, another GOPer is sniffing out the race (as the possible fifth entrant in the GOP field): Scott Zelov, commissioner of very wealthy and moderate Lower Merion Township on the Main Line.

• TN-08: State Sen. Roy Herron is fighting back against the wide-ranging attacks leveled against him by the NRCC, as his candidacy for the 8th enters its second week. (Recall from last week that the NRCC has been gay-baiting Herron.) Herron called the NRCC’s attacks “ridiculous and desperate,” to which the NRCC said Herron was “foaming at the mouth” and “hurling ‘Yo mama’-style insults.” As much as the NRCC is transparently guilty of what they accuse Herron of, they at least win some points for evocative language here. An article from the Tennessean lists a few other Dems who may be interested in the seat, despite Herron’s quick entry, one of whom is a big name: former state House speaker Jimmy Naifeh (who had considered a run in 1988, when John Tanner took over the seat). They also list state Sen. Doug Jackson as a possibility.

• NY-St. Sen.: State Sen. Hiram Monserrate is managing to escape his misdemeanor assault conviction with no jail time, leaving his colleagues wondering what to do with him (including censure, suspension, or expulsion). Also, good news for the Dems as they look for ways to expand their narrow majority: one of the last Republicans left in the Senate within the New York City limits, Frank Padavan, may get a top-tier challenge next year from former city councilor Tony Avella (last seen losing the mayoral primary to William Thompson).

• Mayors: Kasim Reed has been certified as elected as the new mayor of Atlanta. His opponent, city councilor Mary Norwood, still plans to request a recount of the election, decided by a margin of less than one thousand votes. In New York City, guess who finished fourth in the mayoral race: fictional character C. Montgomery Burns, who got more write-in votes than any other candidate. Why just vote for a billionaire buying the office who’s only a little bit creepy and evil, when instead you can go the Full Monty?

• History: Here’s an interesting piece of trivia: a woman was not elected to the U.S. Senate, without having been the wife or daughter of a previous Senator, until 1980. That woman was Republican Paula Hawkins, who served as Florida’s Senator for one term, and in her outspoken self-proclaimed averageness, telegenic ultra-conservatism, and resentments of liberal media elites, was something of a Sarah Palin prototype. Hawkins died over the weekend at age 82.

• Polltopia: Here’s another thoughtful article at Pollster.com on what’s driving Rasmussen’s perceptibly pro-Republican house effects, from professor Alan Abramowitz. He says that there’s more going on than just their use of a likely voter model; he sees a major difference between Rasmussen and other pollsters in terms of the Democratic advantage in party identification. Meanwhile, PPP is asking for your help yet again: they’d like your input on which House district to poll next. Should it be CO-03, CO-04, ID-01, NH-01, NM-01, NM-02, or SD-AL?

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has picked up a major critic in her Senate run: one of her former employees, in the form of 66-year-old former pro wrestler Superstar Billy Graham. Graham is a physical wreck from his days in the WWF, thanks to steroid abuse and a number of hip replacements, with no pension or health care from WWE. He plans to keep dogging the McMahon campaign as McMahon keeps trying to sanitize her previous career.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is dropping the smiley above-the-fray approach; he’s promising to step up direct engagements with Marco Rubio, now that it looks like we’ve got a real race on our hands. Crist will go after Rubio for failure to move important pieces of conservative legislation during his time as state House speaker.

• KS-Sen, KS-04: This seems to exist mostly as whispers and rumors, but there’s word that Rep. Todd Tiahrt, not getting much traction in polls or fundraising or endorsements, may drop out of the GOP Senate primary against Rep. Jerry Moran. (Tiahrt’s people pushed back against the idea, saying they’re relying on movement grassroots forces that things like “polls” don’t pick up on. They actually also tried redbaiting Moran over his sponsorship of legislation to allow American travel to Cuba, indicating they won’t go quietly.) The question of Tiahrt running for House instead also presents a conundrum for state Rep. Raj Goyle in KS-04, who’s turning into one of the Dems’ best 2010 challengers — would Goyle be better off running in an open seat, or against the 16-year vet Tiahrt in what’s shaping up to be an anti-incumbent year?

• KY-Sen: There had been some talk about Cathy Bailey (a wealthy Bush Pioneer and W’s ambassador to Latvia), back when the GOP was still casting about for an alternative to Jim Bunning. All of a sudden, she’s back, saying she’s considering the race and sounding none too pleased with Trey Grayson (too “moderate” for her tastes) and Rand Paul (too “extreme”). I can’t see her winning the primary, but with her money, she could conceivably peel away enough mainstream GOP votes from Grayson to flip the primary to Paul.

• MT-Sen: It looks like Max Baucus may have suffered some residual damage from his high-profile role in health care reform; he’s down to 44% approval, from 67% approval at this point two years ago, according to an MSU-Billings poll. He’s lagging all other statewide officials, including Jon Tester (56/25) and Brian Schweitzer (62/20). The problem seems to be that Baucus gets only 67% approval among Dems, compared with 81% for Tester and 82% for Schweitzer; a plurality of Montanans, including 73% of Dems, support a public option, so Baucus’s decline among Dems doesn’t seem hard to diagnose.

• NC-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker said he won’t be running for Senate, although he’d strongly considered it. With Rep. Bob Etheridge’s recent “no” also, it’s looking more and more like SoS Elaine Marshall will have a lightly contested path to the Dem nomination (her main opponent is attorney Kenneth Lewis).

• NH-Sen: One other important “no” in a Senate race: RNC member and one-time House candidate Sean Mahoney, who had been making lots of candidate-like noises, said he won’t run in the GOP field. If you look a few moves ahead in the chess game, that’s good news for us, as having Mahoney out of the race means fewer votes split on the field’s right flank, giving right-winger Ovide Lamontagne a stronger shot at taking out establishment fave Kelly Ayotte, which would give Dems a much weaker opponent in the general.

• WI-Sen: Former Gov. (and brief presidential candidate) Tommy Thompson isn’t ruling out a Senate bid, although it seems unlikely; he’ll make a decision “next year.” Thompson’s rather strange statement is that he’s “looking at governor, looking at senator, and looking at mayor of Elroy. One of the three.” Seeing as how this is similar to the NY-Sen-B or ND-Sen races (an unlikely challenge to materialize, but one that would be a hot race if it did), SSP is moving the Wisconsin race back on to the big board, as a Race to Watch.

• WV-Sen: Congratulations to Robert Byrd, who hit an astonishing milestone today: the longest-serving Congressperson of all time. Byrd (a Representative from 1952-1958 and a Senator since 1958) has been in Congress for more than 25% of Congress’s existence.

• KS-Gov: Kansas Dems have finally nailed down a solid candidate to take on retiring Sen. Sam Brownback in the gubernatorial race. Retired pharmaceutical company executive Tom Wiggans will carry the flag for the Democrats in this uphill fight. (H/t Mike Nellis.)

• NY-19: I was tempted to put this story on the FP just so I could run the headline “Ball busted!” Roll Call is sounding pretty pissed off at having gotten initially snookered by Greg Ball and his sketchy poll from yesterday. His internal poll only sampled two-thirds of the district (Westchester, Putnam, and Dutchess Counties), oversampling Republican Putnam County and leaving out Orange and Rockland Counties altogether, counties where Hall won last year. Ball’s backers say they’ll do a more traditional poll soon and are still pleased with their findings.

• PA-10: Good news for the GOP: they’ve found an elected official who’s interested in going up against Blue Dog Dem Chris Carney in the sprawling, red-leaning 10th, where they’ve been struggling with recruitment. The bad news is: Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk is 27 (and is hard-pressed to look 17 — check out the photo at the link), and Snyder County, deep in the hills, has a population of 38K and is at the wrong end of the district from the population centers.

• WI-08: A line is forming among GOP challengers to Rep. Steve Kagen, and now there’s a former state legislator among them. Ex-state Rep. Terry McCormick served three terms and then lost the 2006 primary in WI-08 against then-state Rep. John Gard when it was an open seat, and now she’s back for another try. There are a couple county supervisors in the race, but the NRCC seems to like Reid Ribble, a businessman who can bring his own money to the race.

• CA-St. Ass.: Republican Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby finished first in the special election (to replace “Hot Mike” Duvall) in AD-72 last night. His 37% wasn’t enough to avoid a second round. He’ll face Democrat John MacMurray (who finished second at 27%) and a Green Party candidate; two other Republicans, Linda Ackerman and Richard Faher, pulled in 20% and 13% respectively, so if Norby consolidates the GOP votes in this red-leaning seat (which falls within CA-40 in the US House) he’s on track to holding the seat.

• NRCC: Pete Sessions, emulating the Dems’ spread-the-field strategy of recent cycles, says he wants to have 435 districts that Republicans are playing in. He may have missed an important piece of information: the Illinois filing deadline is past, and the Republicans are already guaranteed not to be playing in IL-01 and IL-04. Well, 433 is close.

• Mayors: There are dueling internal polls of the upcoming Houston mayoral runoff, one of the two big mayoral races left on the table (Atlanta being the other one). City controller Annise Parker leads former city attorney Gene Locke, 47-34 in her own poll, while in Locke’s poll, Parker has a narrower 43-39 lead.

• Demographics: NDN, a liberal think tank that spends a lot of time on Latino issues, has done some projecting of 2010 re-apportionment, and likes what it sees. They see Texas gaining four seats, and possibly three of those could be drawn as Hispanic-influence seats in Dallas, Houston, and the Rio Grande Valley. They also see Florida gaining a seat, and recommend creation of a Hispanic-influence seat in central Florida (where much of the state’s growth, both overall and among Hispanics, has been).

• Parties: CNN has a poll that points to the current disparity between the parties: Democrats are a lot more tolerant of the big tent. 58% of Dems prefer to see nomination of candidates who can beat the Republicans, even if they don’t agree on all the issues, while 51% of Republicans prefer to see candidates who agree with them even if they have a poor chance of beating the Democrat.

• Votes: Donkeylicious has an interesting project reminiscent of SSP’s own PVI/Vote Index, looking at Dems and seeing how they match up with their districts’ leans. A lot of the same names show up among bad Dems as we found, but they do some interesting breaking things down by region and by freshman or sophomore status.

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A new LA Times/USC poll (conducted by GQR and POS) finds a dead heat in the GOP Senate primary: conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and vapid ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina are deadlocked at 27 each (despite the fact that DeVore is almost entirely unknown, with favorables of 6/4 — the deal is that Fiorina is, other than Ahnold, the state’s only political figure with negative favorables, at 9/12). They also looked at the GOP field in the governor’s race and find ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman leading the field at 35, followed by ex-Rep. Tom Campbell at 27 and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner at 10. No general election matchups, but probably the most disspiriting number of all is that a whopping 80% of all Californians think the state’s best days are behind it.

• FL-Sen: This seemed already pretty well established when they ran an anti-Crist ad last week, but it was made official today: the Club for Growth endorsed Marco Rubio in his primary challenge to Charlie Crist. Mmmmmm… cat fud.

• IL-Sen: State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, whose easy path to the nomination seems to have gotten at least something of an obstacle in its way with the candidacy of former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, got a key endorsement: Rep. Luis Gutierrez. Giannoulias now has the endorsement of four of the state’s House Dems.

• KS-Sen: Also on the endorsement front, Rep. Jerry Moran got one today in the Kansas Senate GOP primary from Arizona’s Rep. Jeff Flake. Kind of odd, as Flake is one of the most conservative House members and Moran is the ‘moderate’ option in the race, but Flake is more on the libertarian side of things rather than a theocon.

• MA-Sen: Finally, something is happening in the sleepy Massachusetts Senate special election Democratic primary. Rep. Michael Capuano hit AG Martha Coakley from the left, attacking her for support for the death penalty, and the PATRIOT Act (Capuano was one of the few to vote against it). And now Coakley is saying she would have voted against the entire health care bill because of the Stupak poison pill, for which Capuano is now attacking her from the right (or at least the pragmatic).

• MT-Sen: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg pushed back a bit against rumors last week that he was gearing up to run for Senate against Jon Tester in 2012, saying he had no “immediate” plans to run. Rehberg didn’t categorically rule it out, though.

• NH-Sen: He’s been acting like a candidate all year, but Ovide Lamontagne made it official: he’s running for the GOP Senate nomination in New Hampshire. Lamontagne, a lawyer who defeated the establishment candidate in the GOP gubernatorial primary in 1996 (and went onto get demolished in the general), is probably the highest-profile primary challenger to establishment choice ex-AG Kelly Ayotte.

• NY-Sen-B: In case it wasn’t clear that ex-Gov. George Pataki is interesting in running for President, not Senator, he’s making another appearance in Iowa tomorrow, addressing the Scott County GOP Ronald Reagan Dinner in Davenport.

• PA-Sen: Here’s a blast from the past, as one Arlen Specter opponent passed the torch to another. Lynn Yeakel, who lost the 1992 Senate race to Specter by only 3% amidst the media-designated “Year of the Woman,” threw her support to Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic Senate primary on Friday.

• NV-Gov: Las Vegas’s colorful Democratic mayor Oscar Goodman is still mulling over whether to get involved in the gubernatorial race (and sounding pretty lukewarm about it), but he says if he does it, it’ll be as an independent and not as a Democrat, setting up a confusing anything-can-happen three-way in yet another state.

• VA-Gov: Here’s a guy to add to the top of the “Do Not Hire” list right next to Bob Shrum: pollster David Petts, who it turns out is largely responsible for the Creigh Deeds strategy of going nonstop negative against Bob McDonnell, focusing on independents, and distancing himself from Barack Obama.

• IL-07: It was decisionmaking day for Rep. Danny Davis (who had previously signed up for both his House seat and Cook Co. Board President, but had to withdraw one filing today), and it’s a bit of a surprise: he’s running for re-election to the House. He had apparently become worried about the possibility of splitting votes with multiple other African-Americans in the race, so he heads back to his nice safe seat in the House. (The question will now be how many of the prominent local politicos who filed to run for the open seat primary now drop out.)

• IL-10: Democratic State Rep. Julie Hamos, who netted a big cash haul last quarter, is the first to hit the airwaves for the fast-approaching House primary against Dan Seals. She’s running a TV spot touting her stand on health care.

• LA-02: So I guess the future isn’t Cao, anymore? Rep. Joe Cao has drawn a lot of heat for his aisle-crossing on health care, but it doesn’t look like he’ll suffer any meaningful consequences from leadership, and he’s even pushing back against Michael Steele’s comments about “coming after” moderate rank-breakers, in understated fashion, saying “He has the right to come after those members who do not conform to party lines, but I would hope that he would work with us in order to adjust to the needs of the district and to hold a seat that the Republican party would need.” Also, Cao has picked up an unusual ally: Alaska’s Rep. Don Young is defending Cao’s vote and even stood watch over Cao as he cast his vote, fending off the horde of GOP arm-twisters.

• NY-23: One of the lingering questions from last week: what the heck happened to all those Doug Hoffman voters that the polls showed? Mark Blumenthal assesses that most voters simply were in flux over that last weekend of polling as two separate events scrambled the status quo, and only made up their mind shortly before voting — and that, in the end, Scozzafava voters disliked Hoffman more than they disliked Owens.

• PA-11: Hazleton mayor and narrow 2008 loser Lou Barletta is still trying to decide on a rematch with Rep. Paul Kanjorski. He’s set a timeline for a late November decision.

• CA-LG: Moderate Republican state Senator Abel Maldonado seems to have the inside track on getting appointed as California’s new Lt. Governor (left vacant by John Garamendi’s election to the House), according to rumormongers. Maldonado seems the likeliest because he’s about the only Republican who can clear the Democratic-controlled legislature, and Dems like the idea because he’d leave behind a Dem-leaning Senate district on the central coast that would be a good pickup target in a special election. There’s also one other GOP-held vacancy coming up in the state Senate (SD-37, a traditionally Republican area in the Inland Empire but one where Obama won), vacated by John Benoit (who became a Riverside Co. Commissioner). Democratic Palm Springs school board member Justin Blake is already running there (along with possibly three different Republican Assemblymen), so there may be two good opportunities for Dems to get closer to the magic 2/3s mark in the Senate.

• NY-St. Ass.: As the orgy of own-eating continues, the rest of the Assembly’s GOP leadership is considering stripping Dede Scozzafava of her status as minority leader pro tem (in retribution for her Bill Owens endorsement). If they do, start counting down the days until she switches parties.

• TX-St. House: Hopes still persist that the Dems can flip the Texas state House in 2010, where they were down only 76-74, but that got pushed back to 77-73 last week when long-time Democrat Chuck Hopson, representing a very conservative rural area in NE Texas, switched to the Republicans. Hopson still might not be able to save his butt; a GOP primary challenger, Michael Banks, already jumped in for 2010.

• HCR Vote: The AFSCME and HCAN are running “thank you” ads in 20 different districts for vulnerable Dems who voted for health care reform.

• Parties: I suppose it was only a matter of time before some clever wingnut figured this out. A conservative Orlando lawyer registered an official “Tea Party” with the secretary of state, making it one of 32 minor parties recognized in Florida.

• Polling: PPP wants your help! They’re asking for polling suggestions in their blog comments, and also have a poll up on where to go next (Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, or Ohio?).