In Part I of the August preview, we looked at the 8-5 runoff in Georgia and primaries in Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri, the 8-7 primary in Tennessee, and the 8-12 primary in Colorado.
August 19
WA-03, WA-08: Washington has switched back to a Top 2 primary system, in which candidates of all parties run against each other, and the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of party. In the past, the numbers from the all-party primary gave a good indication of the comparative strength of the major party candidates, drawing on a much larger sample than any poll. So all eyes will be on WA-08, where netroots heroine Darcy Burner will be up against Dave Reichert. (There is also at least one other Democrat in the race, Jim Vaughn, running well to Burner’s right. He has no money and isn’t expected to be a factor.)
Netroots goat Brian Baird also faces some intramural competition in WA-03 from peace activist Cheryl Crist. Baird should be reelected without any trouble, although Crist can’t be entirely disregarded, having made some waves at the 3rd District nominating convention (losing to Baird 59 to 24) and holding $8K CoH. The question will be whether those waves amount to more than a ripple in the broader population, or if there’s some discontent outside the activist base in this D+0 district.
WY-AL: Democrat Gary Trauner has been running for this R+19 seat for years now, losing by a small margin in 2006 to Barbara Cubin. Ding dong, she’s gone, but the question is who the GOP candidate to succeed her will be. A Research 2000 poll from May showed Trauner narrowly beating former Secretary of State Cynthia Lummis. Although she’s the best known Republican candidate, she’s not a sure thing; rancher Mark Gordon has more cash and released an internal poll showing him beating Lummis. (Trauner vs. Gordon wasn’t polled.)
August 26
AK-Sen: As recently as a few days ago, this race wasn’t on anyone’s mind. Then, things really took off: first, previously-unknown beardo Vic Vickers announced he’d be dropping $410,000 of his own money into the race. The following day, incumbent Ted Stevens was indicted for failing to report the value of free house renovations. The question, all of a sudden, was no longer whether Mark Begich could squeak by Stevens in the general, but whether Stevens would even survive the primary. Luckily for Uncle Ted, the anti-corruption vote is split a variety of different ways, including not just Vickers but ex-State Rep. Dave Cuddy, who challenged Stevens in the 1996 primary and can also self-finance. The Rasmussen poll from a few days ago didn’t poll the primary matchup, but shows beating any of those three by double-digit margins.
AK-AL: It’s unlikely that anything other than a Ted Stevens indictment could overshadow the battle for the at-large House seat in Alaska. Don Young, just as entrenched and corrupt as Stevens, faces a run through a primary gauntlet before even being able to think about the general. He’s up against Sean Parnell, the Lieutenant Governor from the ‘clean’ camp of the Alaska Republicans led by Governor Sarah Palin. Parnell is also being propped up with big media buys from the Club for Growth, but he’s suddenly pulled a disappearing act in the face of the mini-scandal surrounding the Governor. Another wrinkle in the race, though, is that State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux is running too and pouring in a lot of her own money, (probably) unintentionally diluting the anti-Young vote. The most recent polling gives a four-point edge for Parnell, flipped from a three-point edge for Young in May.
So who’s going up against Young/Parnell in the general? There’s a primary to determine that, too. Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz is favored, although Native activist Diane Benson, who mounted a surprisingly strong challenge to Young in 2006, is very much in the race.
FL-08: The Democratic primary to take on the underwhelming Ric Keller in this R+3 (and rapidly bluening) district has a crowded field. Businessman Charlie Stuart, who held Keller to a 53-46 result in 2006, is the likeliest winner. Lawyer Alan Grayson, who lost the 2006 primary to Stuart, is running to Stuart’s left and has stirred some netroots attention lately with his aggressive advertising, but he may making his move too late. More attorneys (Quoc Ba Van and Mike Smith) round out the field.
Keller can’t be considered entirely safe in his own primary, either: he’s facing a challenge from local radio host and attorney Todd Long, mostly over his breaking his self-imposed term limits pledge (and probably also his backbench ineffectiveness).
FL-15: Coulda, woulda, shoulda. This R+4 seat, open with the retirement of Dave Weldon, is a prime pick-up target for the Democrats. Unfortunately, DCCC recruitment efforts failed, and the two contenders for the nomination, physician Steve Blythe and commercial pilot/AF reserve officer Paul Rancatore, are both sitting on very little cash (less than $10K each). The primary winner could conceivably move this race back onto the map with an outside cash infusion, but this mostly serves to underscore the main need for Dems in Florida: to elect Dems at the legislative and county levels outside of the major cities in order to build a bench and affect redistricting.
FL-16: Three different Republicans try to out-conservative each other for the right to take on Tim Mahoney, a freshman Blue Dog who lucked into this seat via the Mark Foley scandal and seems to have a somewhat tenuous hold on it despite its R+2 status. Palm Beach Gardens councilman Hal Valeche seems to be occupying the religious right corner, lawyer Tom Rooney (nephew of Steelers owner Dan Rooney) is the money conservative, and State Rep. Gayle Harrell tries to grab a little from each column. The big endorsements seem to be going for Rooney, although I don’t know if they’re the kind of endorsements you necessarily want (Tom Feeney, ’06 substitute loser Joe Negron). Without any polling, though, it’s up in the air, and any of the three would be at a disadvantage in the general against Mahoney’s huge war chest.
