Public Policy Polling (3/29-4/1, Pennsylvania voters, no trend lines):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 43
Pat Toomey (R): 46
Undecided: 11Joe Sestak (D): 36
Pat Toomey (R): 42
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Quinnipiac (3/31-4/5, registered voters, 2/22-28 in parentheses) (primary numbers):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 41 (49)
Pat Toomey (R): 46 (42)
Undecided: 12 (8)Joe Sestak (D): 34 (36)
Pat Toomey (R): 42 (39)
Undecided: 22 (24)
(MoE: ±2.6%)Arlen Specter (D): 53 (53)
Joe Sestak (D): 32 (29)
Undecided: 15 (14)
(MoE: ±3.2%)
PPP’s first look at the Pennsylvania Senate race finds a small lead for Pat Toomey; Quinnipiac’s newest entry pretty much confirms their numbers, despite their slightly different models (Quinnipiac polls registered voters) and despite showing a decent Arlen Specter lead last month. PPP’s sample breaks down very neatly: Specter leads by 71 among people who approve of Obama, while Toomey leads by 71 among people who disapprove. With Obama at 46/50 approval in Pennsylvania, that’s enough for a small Toomey lead. (The sample breaks down 49 voted for Obama, 48 for McCain, so their sort-of-LV model is a bit more conservative than the 2008 electorate.)
Public Policy Polling (3/29-4/1, Pennsylvania voters, no trend lines):
Dan Onorato (D): 32
Tom Corbett (R): 45
Undecided: 23Jack Wagner (D): 30
Tom Corbett (R): 43
Undecided: 27Joe Hoeffel(D): 31
Tom Corbett (R): 46
Undecided: 23Anthony Williams (D): 27
Tom Corbett (R): 45
Undecided: 28
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Quinnipiac (3/31-4/5, registered voters, 2/22-28 in parentheses) (primary numbers):
Dan Onorato (D): 33 (32)
Tom Corbett (R): 45 (42)
Undecided: 21 (24)Jack Wagner (D): 29 (30)
Tom Corbett (R): 48 (42)
Undecided: 21 (26)Joe Hoeffel(D): 28 (30)
Tom Corbett (R): 50 (41)
Undecided: 21 (27)
(MoE: ±2.6%)Dan Onorato (D): 20 (16)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 15 (10)
Jack Wagner (D): 13 (11)
Anthony Williams (D): 5 (2)
Undecided: 47 (59)
(MoE: ±3.2%)Tom Corbett (R): 58
Sam Rohrer (R): 7
Undecided: 35
(MoE: ±4.4%)
The Pennsylvania Governor’s race didn’t look good before, and now it looks even worse if you follow Quinnipiac’s trendlines (although the shift mirrors the shift in the Senate race in the same sample, indicating they got a much more conservative batch this month). PPP’s first look at the race isn’t quite as bad, but still confirms the general idea. As both PPP’s Tom Jensen and Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown point out in their writeups, things are likely to tighten up once the Democratic primary is over and the focus is on one candidate. Right now, the Dems have such a name rec deficit (against Tom Corbett, currently getting his name in the news constantly with the Bonusgate prosecutions) that the race is very much of a question mark at this point. With Corbett flirting with the 50% mark, though, the Dems may be getting into too deep a hole here to dig out once they’ve coalesced.