Tag: Polls

Multi-Quest International for John Fleming (10/6-8, likely voters):

Paul Carmouche (D): 43

John Fleming (R): 48

(MoE: ±8.3%)

Check out that margin of error — it’s a monstrous 8.3 points. Now, the pollster claims that the MoE is lower (6%, according to Roll Call), but the poll’s sample size is a minuscule 140, making a 6% MoE mathematically impossible. (Update: In the comments, MichiganLiberal notes that it would be possible to have an MoE that low for this poll, but doing so would require using a significantly lower confidence interval than what is normally used by reputable pollsters. Either way, it’s a junky poll.)

Republicans are hyping this poll in response to a Kitchens Group survey for Carmouche that showed Dems in the lead by 10 points. If this is their best evidence of Fleming’s strength, they have a lot to feel embarrassed about.

Meanwhile, Roll Call gives us a taste of the air war in the 4th:

While the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has released an ad attacking Fleming’s Social Security plan and his support for a national sales tax, the National Republican Congressional Committee is going after Carmouche’s record as a district attorney.

The NRCC’s attacks are focused on the case of John Pilinski Jr., who Republicans say was allowed to go free after numerous arrests and convictions because Carmouche failed to prosecute him under Louisiana’s habitual offender law.

“Paul Carmouche, soft on crime, wrong for us,” the NRCC ad states.

The Pilinski stuff reeks of typical of out of context Republican BS, but it remains to be seen whether or not it’ll stick. The Carmouche campaign is pretty livid over this one.

The Kitchens Group for Paul Carmouche (11/6-7, likely voters):

Paul Carmouche (D): 45

John Fleming (R): 35

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Here it is — the first publicly-released poll of this race. Lots of undecideds here, but Carmouche begins the race with an edge, retaining a 53-16 favorable rating.

A strong field operation will be crucial in this race, as both sides expect that turnout will be poor. We can also expect a fierce air war here — Fleming is a wealthy physician and businessman, and surely he’ll be ponying up more of his own dough in the coming weeks. The NRCC also needs something to crow about, so they’ve reserved $330K in air time on Fleming’s behalf. No word yet on how heavy the DCCC plans to spend here, but they’ve already dropped $77,000 against Fleming over the weekend.

General election: 12/6.

The poll’s press release is available below the fold.

SurveyUSA (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/26-27 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 52 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 46 (48)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Right after Strategic Vision joined in the party of everyone calling the Washington governor’s race a 50-48 race, along comes SurveyUSA throwing a pretty big curveball, one that shows a lot of last-minute movement to Gregoire.

As with the previous SUSA poll, Gregoire has a sizable edge with early voters, and in this poll, 72% of likely voters have in fact voted… and Gregoire leads by 8 among early voters. Rossi is tied among those who plan to vote at the polls, but that’s no path to victory.

Oddly enough, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer just had a story about how early voting seems to favor Rossi, as the heaviest rates of submissions of mail-in ballots are in red counties. However, their analysis has no way of knowing what’s actually on the ballots (there’s no party registration or Voting Rights Act recordkeeping in Washington)… and this poll, assuming it’s correct, would suggest that the red counties are going more for Gregoire than they did last time. That’s especially because the state’s two biggest blue counties, King and Pierce, are the only counties left that still use polling locations.

SurveyUSA also polled some downballot issues:

Attorney General: McKenna (R-inc) 59, Ladenburg 36

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Dorn (NP) 45, Bergeson (NP-inc) 37

Commissioner of Public Lands: Sutherland (R-inc) 48, Goldmark (D) 42

Initiative 985 (some Tim Eyman-sponsored crap about traffic): Yes (bad) 33, No (good) 45

Initiative 1000 (physician-assisted suicide): Yes 55, No 40

SurveyUSA is out with a new round of North Carolina polls, and the results look pretty similar to other recent polls (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/18-20 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 50 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 43 (45)

Chris Cole (L): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Bev Perdue (D): 48 (43)

Pat McCrory (R): 47 (46)

Mike Munger (L): 4 (7)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

McCain leads Obama by a single point here, 49-48, but turnout will determine it all. Among those who have already voted (57% of the sample), Hagan leads Dole by 58-39, Perdue leads McCrory by 55-41, and Obama leads McCain by 56-41.

A Hagan win seems like a safe bet right now (and how sweet that is, really), but the Presidential and Gubernatorial races seem set to come down to every last vote.

This does not look good.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/30-11/2, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 45

Lou Barletta (R): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

The top of the ticket isn’t a problem for Kanjorski here — Obama is leading McCain by 53-43 in this CD (a better margin than Kerry’s 6-point win here in 2004).

While 2006 was a bloodless year for Democrats, 2008 doesn’t look quite as clean — Mahoney is a certain goner, and the GOP could pick up another couple of seats if they’re lucky, including this one. Kanjo has simply run a tired campaign that embodied politics as usual. He is poised to be the rare Dem victim of the “change” mantra tomorrow.

Hays Research Group (11/2, likely voters):

Mark Begich (D): 49

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 42

Other: 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

And for the at-large House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49

Don Young (R-inc): 43

Other: 1

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Sounds about right to me. The fact that these two crumb-bums (Young and Stevens) are polling even in the low 40s is a testament to just how crusty of a GOP-loving state Alaska is.

But here’s a fun bonus finding: the McCain/Palin ticket leads Obama/Biden by only 48-45 according to this poll. Amusing!

PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 49 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 48 (44)

Michael Munger (L): 2 (5)

(MoE: ±2.1%)

The same North Carolina PPP sample that showed Kay Hagan administering the coup de grace to Elizabeth Dole (and a neck-and-neck race in the NC presidential race) also includes the governor’s race and the rest of the Council of State. Perdue has led in most polls for the last few weeks, but this final poll sees a closer margin as undecideds finally commit; both candidates’ numbers have gone up, but McCrory has gained faster (seemingly helped along by a plunge in Libertarian Michael Munger’s support). With the Washington governor’s race close but seemingly frozen in place, this will be the gubernatorial race to watch tomorrow.

Five Council of State races are also polled; it’s a mixed bag, although with a possible pickup at Auditor:

Lt. Governor: Walter Dalton (D) 49, Robert Pittenger (R) 41

Insurance Comm.: Wayne Goodwin (D) 47, John Odom (R) 41

Auditor: Beth Wood (D) 48, Leslie Merritt (R-inc) 46

Agriculture Comm.: Steve Troxler (R-inc) 51, Ronnie Ansley (D) 43

Labor Comm.: Cherie Berry (R-inc) 51, Mary Fant Donnan (D) 44

Univ. of Washington (10/27-30, registered voters, 10/18-26 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (51)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (45)

(MoE: ±5%)

This, my friends, is change you can xerox. University of Washington gets the last word in polling the Washington governor’s race, and rather than make a bold statement like the 6-point lead they saw several weeks ago, they’ve settled on the exact same 50-48 result that SurveyUSA and Rasmussen reported last week. (Strategic Vision, always the unpredictable rogues, went with 49-47 instead.) Unsurprisingly, the final Pollster composite for this race is 50-48.

Ordinarily, a 2-point lead going into election day would be ominous, but given how flat the trendlines have been all year and how dug-in voters’ heels seem to be, Gregoire can probably start breathing a little easier. As a bonus, Obama leads McCain 51-39 in the same sample.  

PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Martin (D): 46

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48

Allen Buckley (L): 4

(MoE: ±2.8%)

SurveyUSA for WMAZ (10/30-11/1, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (43)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (46)

Allen Buckley (L): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Two new polls of the Georgia senate race seem to confirm that, unless something weird happens, neither candidate is going to clear the 50% mark and we’ll be faced with a December runoff. The race has become remarkably stable in the last few weeks, with Martin never leading but almost always within a few points.

There’s a fierce race at the top of the ticket, too; PPP’s first poll of Georgia also finds Obama trailing only 50-48 (with Barr picking up a measly 2%), but with Obama leading 52-47 among early voters. SurveyUSA finds McCain up 52-45.

SurveyUSA (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/6-7 in parens):

Tom Perriello (D): 47 (42)

Virgil Goode (R-inc): 50 (55)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

Whoa. Tom Perriello has made some amazing strides since August, when a previous SUSA poll showed him trailing by a brutal 64-30 margin. The DCCC has come in here with over $700K of mostly unanswered expenditures in support of Perriello, and it looks like they’ve pushed this district within reach.

Perriello has built an impressive 58-35 edge among early voters, but unfortunately, that’s only 10% of the sample. A lot will come down to election day turnout here. SUSA pegs the black vote at 22%, which is in line with the most recent census figures, but if African-Americans turn out with even greater force, that might tip the scales here.