Tag: Polls

SurveyUSA (10/18-20, likely voters, 10/5-7 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 46 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (44)

Chris Cole (L): 5 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first time we’ve seen Hagan leading in a SUSA poll (they’ve typically been friendlier to Dole and McCain in North Carolina than other pollsters), so this is encouraging.

The Republican Civitas Institute has another poll of their own (10/18-20, likely voters, 10/6-8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 44 (45)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 41 (42)

Chris Cole (L): 4 (3)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

All in all, things are looking pretty good for Kay Hagan right now. It’s no small wonder that Liddy Dole has hit the panic button by loaning her own campaign $3 million.

Bonus findings: McCain and Obama are tied at 47-47 in the SUSA poll (up from 49-46 McCain), while Civitas pegs Obama ahead by 48-45 (down slightly from 48-43).

Research 2000 for Concord Monitor (10/17-19, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (50)

John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 48 (44)

Jeb Bradley (R): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±6%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 49 (47)

Jennifer Horn (R): 35 (34)

(MoE: ±6%)

Things are looking pretty stable in New Hampshire in the newest round of Research 2000 polls of that state for the Concord Monitor. Probably most notable is the improvement for Carol Shea-Porter, who has posted mostly underwhelming poll numbers this cycle; however, she’s up to a five-point lead from a one-point lead last month. (With a 6% margin of error, though… each CD’s sample seems to be half of the statewide sample… anything could be going on there.)

On the Senate side, John Sununu has gained a couple points on Jeanne Shaheen, probably on the back of major advertising expenditures (he’s got a big warchest; now’s the time to spend it). He’s left with an awful lot of ground to make up over the next few weeks, though.

Obama leads McCain 50-43 at the top of the ticket. And as a bonus, I know everyone has been losing a lot of sleep worrying over the New Hampshire governor’s race; incumbent Dem John Lynch leads John Joe Kenney 60-34.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 48 (45)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (44)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

This week’s PPP snapshot of the North Carolina governor’s race gives Bev Perdue a bit more breathing room. While PPP has generally been the most favorable pollster to Perdue, remember that they had her down by 3 at the start of the month. It seems like some of Obama’s momentum is finally transferring to Perdue, though, as PPP observes that she’s now leading among the under-30 crowd by 55-33; in previous polls, she had lagged Obama and Hagan in the young demo.

UPDATE: Civitas (R) also released governor’s race data today; Perdue and McCrory are tied at 43 each (last month, McCrory led 43-41). That’s sort of good news, too, as Civitas tends to be more favorable to McCrory and Perdue hasn’t led in a Civitas poll since August.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 36

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 57

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Man, this Indiana race is a tease. Thompson will occasionally pop up within the margin of error, and then the next poll will always be something like this one. (PPP says Thompson’s problems start with her pulling in only 64% of Democrats.) This poll, however, isn’t much worse than the overall Pollster composite, which is now at 52-37. Bear in mind this is the same sample that just gave Obama a 48-46 edge in freakin’ Indiana, so coattails aren’t helping JLT at all.

SurveyUSA (10/18-20, likely voters, 9/21-22 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 48 (46)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 48 (49)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Mmmm, I like this. I like this a lot.

Princeton Survey Research for the Minneapolis Star Tribune (10/16-17, likely voters, 9/30-10/2 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 39 (43)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36 (34)

Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (18)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

The previous Strib poll seemed like a bit of an outlier, but this one is right in line with most other recent polls. The Barkley factor still looms large here — only 18% of his supporters say that they back him strongly, indicating a lot of parked votes that could fall off the fence in one direction or the other come election day.

Roll Call is back with a pair of Mountain West SurveyUSA polls in two deeply conservative districts (10/18-19, likely voters, no trend lines).

ID-01:

Walt Minnick (D): 51

Bill Sali (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±4%)

These numbers confirm Minnick’s own internal polling, which also has Sali trailing by six points.

Sali’s favorable rating? A dismal 33-47, compared to Minnick’s 45-23. Minnick is taking 21% of self-described conservative voters, and sweeping among moderates (80-16) and liberals (94-5). No wonder the NRCC went up with a $200K ad buy last week to help stall Minnick’s momentum.

WY-AL:

Gary Trauner (D): 44

Cynthia Lummis (R): 50

David Herbert (L): 4

(MoE: ±4%)

Two recent polls by Mason-Dixon and Research 2000 have given Trauner a 44-43 lead, with a high share of the undecided vote coming from Republicans. These numbers are not so kind. Also of concern are the favorable ratings of both Trauner and Lummis — they are virtually identical (41-35 for Lummis and 42-36 for Trauner), and Lummis takes a decent chunk of the moderate vote (33%) and even 10% of self-described liberals. Democrats had hoped to portray Lummis as another Barbara Cubin, the retiring GOP Rep. who has a dismal 23-53 approval rating in this poll. When Trauner and Lummis are sitting at an equal position in terms of likeability, that doesn’t bode well.

Bonus findings: McCain beats Obama by 57-37 in Idaho’s 1st, and by 58-37 in Wyoming.

University of Connecticut for the Hearst Newspapers (10/8-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Himes (D): 44

Chris Shays (R-inc): 44

Other: 2

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

As DemFromCT says, 44 is an ugly, ugly place for an incumbent to be – especially when Barack Obama is leading John McCain by a 54-34 margin.

Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/15-16, likely voters, 10/2-3 in parens):

John Adler (D): 43 (38)

Chris Myers (R): 35 (34)

Undecided: 22 (29)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The NRCC has spent a decent chunk of coin on this race considering their dire finances ($200K, mostly on mail), but I have to wonder if they’ll actually take this fight to the airwaves. Faced with such a daunting cash disadvantage, I kinda doubt that they’ll go up on the air in this district (which is in one of the most expensive markets in the nation according to SSP’s Bang-for-the-Buck Index), but stupider decisions have been made by Tom Cole this year.

Democracy Corps (10/16-19, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 44

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s what we call “striking distance”, folks. While this race will require a huge final push, Chambliss is dangerously below 50% in eight of the last ten polls. Hopefully the DSCC will crank it up and and launch a saturation campaign in the final two weeks, but Martin still needs our help. His name ID is only at 55% according to this poll, meaning he has a lot of room to grow but not much time to do it.

If you’ve thought about donating to Jim Martin, please do so now — he could use the boost. Let’s get the total number of donors on SSP’s Actblue page up to an even 100.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by only 46-44 in Georgia (with another 4% split evenly for Barr and Nader).

UPDATE: In the comments, safi makes a good observation: this poll didn’t include Libertarian Allen Buckley, who has taken levels of support in the mid-single digits in other recent polls.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 42 (44)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Usually you don’t see public pollsters use phrases like “annihilating” in their poll write-ups, but PPP just went there (“Hagan is annihilating Dole among suburban voters, 56-38.”). It’s hard to tell if last week’s sample was a statistical blip or not (Hagan led +9 and +8 in the two weeks before); the fact that her lead among African-Americans dipped to 78-12 last week (and is now back up to 84-7) suggests that it probably was.

I’m glad to see PPP so relentlessly polling their home state (especially with such gigantic sample sizes), as North Carolina is probably the hottest state in this election, with not just NC-Sen but also the close governor’s race and presidential swing state status. At the top of the ticket, Obama leads McCain 51-44 (with McCain now leading among white voters by only 55-39). Governor’s race numbers will come out tomorrow.