Tag: Polls

Mason-Dixon for Casper Star-Tribune (10/13-14, likely voters):

Gary Trauner (D): 44

Cynthia Lummis (R): 43

David Herbert (L): 4

(n = 625)

Apparently Mason-Dixon liked what they saw with Research 2000‘s poll last week of the at-large representative’s race in Wyoming, because they reproduced the exact same numbers. The most noteworthy difference here is the inclusion of Libertarian David Herbert, which explains where some of that unaccounted-for 13% from the R2K poll may be going.

There’s still some bad news for Trauner: of the 9% who remain undecided in this poll, 75% are Republicans. (Only 16% are Democrats and 9% are independents.) On the other hand, there’s some good news, too: Mason-Dixon polled this race for the Star-Tribune at this point two years ago, and Trauner trailed Barbara Cubin by 7%, but went on to lose by less than 1,000 votes.

(H/T: Andy Dufresne)

The Minnesota Senate race just might come down to the wire, and a pair of new polls suggest that this one is anyone’s game at the moment.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/15-16, likely voters):

Al Franken (DFL): 41

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 39

Dean Barkley (I): 18

(MoE: ±4.5%)

And SurveyUSA (10/16-18, likely voters, 9/30-10/1 in parens):

Al Franken (DFL): 39 (33)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41 (43)

Dean Barkley (I): 18 (19)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

SurveyUSA has given us a few polls that seem to be skewed in the Republican direction from Minnesota this year, but this one is a bit more in line with other recent polls.

While both polls find Dean Barkley taking an equal share of the vote, they don’t quite agree on the source of his support. In the R2K poll, Barkley takes a greater share of Democratic votes (15%) than Republican votes (8%), while his share is a bit more even in SUSA’s polling (13% of Dems and 11% of GOPers). Whether or not those voters stick with Barkley in November (and where they end up instead) is the true million dollar question here.

Bonus findings: Obama leads McCain by 52-39 in the R2K poll, and 50-44 according to SUSA.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/15-16, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 42 (37)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 46 (50)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s some nice mo’ for Lunsford in the past month, who has gained some more ground among Democrats and Independents since the previous R2K poll here. Post-bailout, McConnell’s favorable rating has taken a bit of a hit — he currently sits at 47-46, down from 51-43 in September.

Lunsford will need a strong finish in order to pull this off, but this race is looking a lot more doable than it did a couple of months ago.

In one corner, we have the newcomer, Glenn Nye the Political Science Guy. In the other corner, we have the defending champ, the Queen of Mean, THELMA “THE SNAKE” DRAKE!!

How are these two sultans of slam doing?

Bennett, Petts, & Normington for Glenn Nye (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/21-22 in parens):

Glenn Nye (D): 42 (40)

Thelma Drake (R-inc): 47 (45)

Undecided: 11 (15)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Drake the Snake maintains her edge, but Nye still could deliver a last-minute powerslam. Drake does not have this district in a submission hold by any means.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Was the Goreacle onto something?

Two new polls were released last night showing GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray under 50% in his race against Democrat Nick Leibham.

First, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Nick Leibham (10/13-14, likely voters, 4/24-27 in parens):

Nick Leibham (D): 42 (34)

Brian Bilbray (R-inc): 44 (52)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

And here’s The Tarrance Group for Brian Bilbray (10/12-13, likely voters):

Nick Leibham (D): 35

Brian Bilbray (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Those are two different snapshots, to be sure, but the fact that Bilbray isn’t cracking 50% in his own poll tells me that this race might get interesting. Leibham has been pounding Bilbray on the airwaves for weeks now, first comparing him to Paris Hilton, and more recently hitting him hard against his vote against the new G.I. Bill.

This race, which burned us in 2006, always seemed like a bit of long shot, but Leibham is beginning to make some serious noise. Keep your eyes on this one just in case Bilbray suffers a wipe out.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (42)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (48)

Other: 3

(MoE: ±4%)

R2K’s September poll looked like an outlier at the time (especially considering the 55-38 McCain lead in the same poll), but this one looks about right.

Hagan posts a 55-35 favorable rating, while Dole is stuck at 50-43 — not as terrible as other incumbents we’ve seen this year, but she’s still being outpaced by Hagan.

In the gubernatorial race, Markos reports a 48-43 lead for Pat McCrory, but the crosstabs seem wildly mixed up — it looks like the top lines were accidentally swapped, meaning that Democrat Bev Perdue would have the 48-43 lead.

Bonus finding: Obama noses McCain by 46-44 in the same poll.

UPDATE: PPP’s Tom Jensen points out some big issues with the poll’s sample.

LATE UPDATE: R2K pollster Del Ali writes SSP to inform us that the top lines were indeed switched up by accident, meaning that Perdue has a five-point lead in this poll.

SurveyUSA (10/15-16, likely voters, 9/24-25 in parens):

David Boswell (D): 42 (43)

Brett Guthrie (R): 51 (49)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

This is one of those few races where the DCCC’s involvement has seemed to have done more harm than good. Just check out this recent Bowling Green Daily News editorial to see what I mean.

On the heels of this rough SUSA poll, Boswell has released his own internal poll. Garin Hart Yang (10/8-9, likely voters, 8/23-25 in parens):

David Boswell (D): 41 (40)

Brett Guthrie (R): 40 (33)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

It’s never a great sign when your own internals show the other guy with the big mo’.

Anzalone Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (10/10-13, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 48 (43)

Marty Ozinga (R): 29 (35)

Jason Wallace (G): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

That’s some big mo’ for Halvorson. It appears that the general landscape has shifted in the Dems’ favor in the wake of the financial crisis. On the generic ballot, Democrats have gone from a two-point disadvantage (38-40) to a two-point lead (38-36), and Obama has pulled ahead by two points (43-41) after trailing McCain by five here in September. Those aren’t powerhouse numbers, but keep in mind that Bush beat Kerry by 53-46 here, so that’s a big improvement.

Halvorson’s favorable rating: 40-42. Ozinga’s? 27-32.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (40)

Other 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing a tie in the Oregon Senate race gave the blogosphere some pause (as well it should, as this one is by no means over). Research 2000 gives us a bit of very good news, though, and their 6-point spread is more in line with Pollster’s composite of 45-41.

This poll shows a sizable chunk (6%) going to “Other,” which I assume mostly means Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow (who has polled around 7% when specifically named in SurveyUSA polls). (The crosstabs indicate that the biggest support for “Other” is coming from the Independent column, though, not from Republicans, so right-wing GOPers may be staying more loyal to Smith than I’d previously assumed.)

Another interesting bit in the crosstabs: Smith’s favorables/unfavorables are currently at 40%/47%: not as bad for him as they’ve been in Dem internals, but still not the kind of numbers that, y’know, lead to someone getting reelected.

A few days ago special polling results were released for four key ‘tipping point‘ counties. Much to my surprise, Politico (via Insider Advantage) has released another batch of these county-level polls. As with the last go-round, the news is pretty good for Obama (except maybe in Franklin County, Ohio, where he isn’t beating Kerry’s spread).

Bucks County, Pennsylvania (Philly burbs): 47 O/41 M (2004 51 K/48 B, 2000 50 G/46 B)

St. Louis County, Missouri (St. Louis burbs): 53 O/37 M (2004 54 K/45 B, 2000 51 G/46 B)

Prince William County, Virginia (DC burbs): 50 O/42 M (2004 46 K/53 B, 2000 45 G/53 B)

Franklin County, Ohio (Columbus): 45 O, 40 M (2004 54 K/45 B, 2000 49 G/48 B)

Again, there’s no downballot information accompanying these polls, but there are some prominent races in these districts that are likely to benefit from the rising blue tide: Prince William County is primarily in VA-11 (with fractions in VA-01 and VA-10), while the western half of Franklin County forms the bulk of OH-15 (along with most of OH-12 and a bit of OH-07). (Bucks County is PA-08, and St. Louis County is split between MO-01 and MO-02.)