Tag: Polls

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-16, likely voters, 9/22-24):

Gary Trauner (D): 44 (42)

Cynthia Lummis (R): 43 (42)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Gary Trauner keeps making a real race of this in the deep red state of Wyoming. Moving from a tie to a one-point lead shouldn’t be taken as anything but statistical noise, but it’s pretty clear this race survived Palinmania intact and is going to go down to the wire.

There’s one note of caution when viewing this poll, though: if you look deep in the crosstabs, you’ll see that 22% of Republicans are still undecided (compared with only 2% of Democrats and 9% of Independents). If the majority of those undecided Republicans break at the last minute for Lummis, she wins. (However, in a year as weird as this, with the Republican brand a smoldering radioactive heap of wreckage, I suppose that’s not a done deal.)

The rest of the poll reflects Wyoming’s Republican lean: McCain leads Obama 58-35, while in the two Senate races (one special, one regular, both with GOP incumbents) Mike Enzi leads Chris Rothfuss 61-34 and John Barasso leads Nick Carter 57-36.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 46 (43)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4%)

Well, the tightening of this race (also evident in the most recent Rasmussen poll of Mississippi) is great news, but Musgrove has also inched up to 24% of the white vote — that could well be very close to what he needs in order to squeak out a win here, assuming he can take 90% or more of the black vote (he currently beats Wicker among African-Americans by 83-5, with 12% undecided).

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 50-40 in the same poll.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the DCCC (10/14-15, likely voters):

Suzanne Kosmas (D): 58

Tom Feeney (R-inc): 35

(MoE: ±4.9%)

You got that? These numbers are almost too good to be true. Feeney’s personal favorable rating is nearly at Tim Mahoney-like levels: 28-51. Kosmas is still far less well-known, with only a 37-11 rating.

If this poll is anywhere close to accurate, Feeney is screwed. The ball is now in his court (and the NRCC’s) to give us numbers that say otherwise.

The Tarrance Group for the NRCC (10/15-16, likely voters, 10/9 in parens):

Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 29 (56)

Tom Rooney (R): 55 (31)

(MoE: ±5.8%)

With numbers that bad, no wonder you’re hearing rumors about Mahoney dropping out of the race. And I don’t think would be a bad call for him — this guy has some serious personal problems that he has to deal with.

Bonus finding: Mahoney’s personal favorable rating has nosedived to 28-53.

What’s especially interesting is that Rooney was getting completely pasted even in the NRCC’s own numbers, pre-scandal. This wasn’t much of a pickup opportunity until Mahoney self-destructed.

SurveyUSA (10/14-15, likely voters):

Jerry McNerney (D-inc): 52

Dean Andal (R): 41

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±3.9%)

To my knowledge, this is the first poll we’ve seen of this race, and McNerney is sitting comfortably — about where I expected him to be given his smooth first term. He picks up 16% of Republicans and wins Independents by 47-38.

Dean Andal was himself a much-hyped recruit earlier this cycle, but he’s had a serious failure to launch, and reports say that DC Republicans are sorely disappointed. McNerney is in good shape for a second term.

Full crosstabs available here (pdf).

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/29-10/1 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 45 (44)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (45)

Allen Buckley (L): 5 (-)

Undecided: 3 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

Hoo-boy. Poll after poll keeps telling us that this is an incredibly tight race. Martin currently is sitting at 26% of the white vote (and 86% of the African-American vote) — and, as Kos writes, if he can nudge that up to 30%, he’ll be in a good position.

As fitchfan wrote in the diaries, Martin out-raised Chambliss in the third quarter by $1.3 million to $1.1 million, but he ended September with only $93K left in the bank. If you haven’t yet done so, please consider lending Jim Martin a hand over at SSP’s Actblue page. Let’s see if we can hit 100 donors for Jim soon.

Anzalone Liszt (10/13-15, likely voters, July in parens):

Jim Esch (D): 46 (40)

Lee Terry (R-inc): 47 (50)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

And here are the Presidential numbers:

Barack Obama (D): 44 (42)

John McCain (R): 48 (46)

Undecided: 8 (12)

Wow. These are ground-shaking numbers. No wonder Lee Terry has been fishing so furiously for “Obama-Terry voters” — he might need a few to survive this November.

Terry’s favorables: 54-39 (down from 60-33), while Esch is at 51-30 (from 35-13 in July). Terry’s job approval rating has also taken a dive — from 60-34 in July to 53-43 today. With the DCCC currently pounding Terry on the airwaves, these numbers could fall even further.

Update: One thing that’s worth mentioning is the sample’s composition. This poll pegs the African-American vote at 4%, while the population of the 2nd District is 10.2% black according to the Almanac of American Politics. If those voters turn out, they could tip the balance here.

Partial crosstabs given exclusively to the Swing State Project are available below the fold.

SurveyUSA (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 57 (53)

Anne Northup (R): 41 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

Anne… let it go.

Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/10-12, likely voters):

El Tinklenberg (D): 38

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 42

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Interesting numbers. Could there be some truth to them? Well, considering that the NRCC has been canceling buys for GOP “star recruit” Erik Paulsen and shifting them to the 6th District instead, these numbers could very well be close to the truth.

SurveyUSA (10/13-14, likely voters):

Kurt Schrader (D): 51

Mike Erickson (R): 38

Other: 8

(MoE: ±4.1%)

If there was ever an indicator of just how unloved Mike Erickson is, it’s the fact that Erickson could only rustle up $31K in campaign contributions this quarter (he made up for the rest of his expenses with his own checkbook). Of course, this scathing non-endorsement of Erickson from The Oregonian is also a pretty good indicator, too.