Tag: Polls

SurveyUSA (10/13-14, likely voters, 9/17-18 in parens):

Kay Barnes (D): 40 (42)

Sam Graves (R-inc): 51 (51)

Dave Browning (L): 4 (4)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This race was one of the earliest pickup opportunities touted by the DCCC in 2007, and for a while it looked like former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes would make this one a real monster of a race. While she’s certainly been spending heavily in recent weeks (and so has the DCCC), and I still wouldn’t count her out yet, it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any promising poll numbers from this race in quite some time.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Himes (D): 48

Chrissy Shays (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±4%)

Shays’s favorables: 43-32; Himes: 39-22. Shays has a small lead among independents, 46-42, but it’s not going to be enough. That’s because Obama leads McCain 59-37 in this district – in other words, Democrats are energized. (Remember, Kerry carried this district by just six points.)

This race is far from over, but I wouldn’t want to be in Shays’s shoes right now.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here.

Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/12-14, likely voters):

Parker Griffith (D): 46

Wayne Parker (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Those are decent numbers for Griffith as he fights to hold this open seat, but he’s also been dealing with some big hits from Republicans this week over out-of-context quotes pulled from a religious forum held last month. (You can read more about that here.) Even though, in their proper context, Griffith’s remarks were not offensive, there’s no question that this was a bit of a goof. But at least he has some help in his own defense:

David Carpenter, a Baptist minister from Florence, was the moderator of the forum last month. He said he was “shocked by the misuse of the quote from that event.

“I sat right between Wayne Parker and Dr. Griffith during the program and thought both did an excellent job discussing issues of faith and their views,” Carpenter said. “The response that is being used against Parker Griffith was part of his comment in a longer discussion of whether radical Islam was a threat to our Christian faith.

“I was there when he said these quotes and can tell you that they have been taken out of context, and it is unfortunate that anyone would misrepresent the truth in this way.”

You may remember last month I did a piece on the tipping point counties in all the hotly contested states, as a means of drilling a little deeper into where the real pivot points of this election are. Well, apparently I’m not the only person interested in this level of analysis, as Politico, via Insider Advantage, polled presidential preferences in four key bellwether counties in four presidential swing states.

What they found is extremely heartening, given that all of these counties narrowly supported Bush in the last two elections. Here are the poll results, with 2004 and 2000 results in parentheses:

Washoe County, Nevada (Reno): O 46, M 45 (2004 47 K/51 B, 2000 43 G/52 B)

Wake County, North Carolina (Raleigh): O 50, M 44 (2004 49 K/51 B, 2000 46 G/53 B)

Hillsborough County, Florida (Tampa): O 47, M 41 (2004 46 K/53 B, 2000 47 G/50 B)

Jefferson County, Colorado (Denver burbs): M 45, O 43 (2004 47 K/52 B, 2000 43 G/51 B)

Unfortunately, there’s no information about downballot races here, but the way we’re beating the previous two elections’ spreads should be encouraging to Jill Derby in NV-02, Mark Udall in CO-Sen, and Kay Hagan and Bev Perdue in NC. (As an interesting aside, Hillsborough and Jefferson were actually the tipping point counties in my analysis of Florida and Colorado.)

Anzalone Liszt for Jason Altmire (10/6-9, likely voters):

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 53

Melissa Hart (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Those numbers are virtually identical to a recent SurveyUSA poll from around the same time showing Altmire leading by 54-42. It looks like Altmire is in the catbird’s seat with three weeks left on the clock.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Research 2000 (10/6-8, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 39

Lou Barletta (R): 43

(MoE: ±5%)

Woof. Barletta has been posting lead after lead in his own internal polling, and a recent Franklin & Marshall College poll also agrees. With R2K now in Barletta’s corner (although by a much closer margin), the only favorable numbers for Kanjorski have been Grove Insight internal polls for the DCCC. Not promising.

Democrats had an enormously one-sided victory in 2006, losing no seats in Congress. It seems likely that Dems will make sizable gains again this year, but it won’t be entirely blood-less on our side. This race is in danger of becoming one of the few Dem losses.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

The DCCC has released a pair of polls of New Jersey’s tight open seat races. Let’s take a look.

NJ-03: Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/2-3, likely voters):

John Adler (D): 38

Chris Myers (R): 34

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The polls so far haven’t been very kind to Adler in this D+3 (but ancestrally Republican) South Jersey district. All of the publicly-released polls of this race have given Myers a lead between two and four points, with a large share of the vote undecided. In my gut, I still think that Adler should pull this one out, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be a walk in the park by any means.

NJ-07: Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/8-9, likely voters):

Linda Stender (D): 40

Leonard Lance (R): 31

Michael Hsing (I): 8

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hsing is a Republican councilman from Bridgewater running as an Independent, and it seems like his impact on this race won’t be negligible. The polls from this race have been a bit more mixed than the 3rd: Monmouth recently gave Lance a 43-39 edge, while Anzalone Liszt found Stender up by 36-33 (with 9% for Hsing) in August.

SSP currently rates both of these races as Tossups.

Bennett Petts & Normington for the DCCC (10/8-9, likely voters):

Darcy Burner (D): 49

Dave Reichert (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This one comes hot on the heels of two recent polls by Research 2000 and Lake Research, both of which showed Reichert ahead by 8 and 3 points, respectively. Given that this is the first poll we’ve seen that has Burner leading, I’m a bit more inclined to believe that this race leans more in the direction of R2K and Lake’s findings. Hopefully KING5-TV will commission another SurveyUSA poll of this race soon, so that we can get a better picture of where this one stands.

Quinnipiac just released two sets of Senate polls from two states, taken before and after the most recent Presidential debate. Let’s take a look.

Quinnipiac (10/8-12, likely voters, 10/3-7 in parens):

Mark Udall (D): 54 (48)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (43)

Undecided: 6 (9)

(MoE: ±3%)

It’s hard for me to believe that Udall had that big of a bounce after Obama’s debate, but I’ll take it.

Quinnipiac (10/8-12, likely voters, 10/3-7 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 38 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36 (37)

Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (17)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

Well, this is a pretty big deal, as Franken has never posted a lead in a Q-poll before now. It also happens to be the first time that Quinnipiac has included Barkley as an option, and it appears that his presence on the ballot has thrown this race wide open.

Bonus findings: Obama leads McCain by 52-43 in Colorado (through both polls), and 51-40 in Minnesota (51-43 pre-debate).

Public Policy Polling (10/11-12, likely voters, 10/4-5 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 46 (49)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (40)

Christopher Cole (L): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Dole has managed to chip away a few soft Democrats from Hagan’s flank (going from 12% last week to 16% this week among Democrats), but Tom Jensen finds some silver lining in the results:

The good news for Hagan? Voters who are undecided for Senate overwhelmingly support Barack Obama for President, 50-27. She just needs to make sure they vote the rest of their ballot when they come out to vote Democratic for the top office, and she’ll probably win.

In the presidential race, Obama holds a 49-46 lead in the state.

(H/T: bear83)