Tag: Polls

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/6-8, likely voters):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 48

Phil English (R-inc): 41

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5)

Another brutal showing for Philly the Hutt. Remember, a recent SurveyUSA poll from late September had Dahlkemper ahead by 49-45. English’s favorable rating, at 39-45, says it all (Dahlkemper has a 49-28 rating).

With numbers this bad, it’s no surprise that the NRCC has made shoring up English priority number one in their independent expenditure shop. In a year like this, though, I’m not sure if money is gonna save him — especially with Barack Obama edging McCain by 48-46 in this culturally conservative R+1.6 district.

You can’t say that English has been caught off guard — he’s been very vocal about the danger he’s in for months, and has flooded the airwaves with ads since the early summer months in an effort to swamp out the poorly-funded Dahlkemper. You can’t dock English marks for effort, but nothing he’s been doing appears to be working at all.

Garin Hart Yang for Frank Kratovil (10/7-8, likely voters, 4/23-24 in parens):

Frank Kratovil (D): 43 (34)

Andy Harris (R): 41 (43)

Undecided: 16 (23)

(MoE: ±5)

The last poll we saw from this open seat race, a DCCC internal from Grove Insight, had the race tied at 36-36 — a result fueled in part by outgoing GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest’s endorsement of Kratovil in early September. Since then, the DCCC has come in with over $630,000 in expenditures against Harris.

While the Harris campaign predictably is scoffing at these numbers, it seems telling that we haven’t seen a GOP-sponsored poll of this race since July. So in response to two promising polling results for Kratovil in a row, will they now put out some of their own numbers?

UPDATE: The full polling memo is available below the fold.

This one isn’t available online yet, but the Portland-based KATU-TV just aired the results of a new poll that they commissioned of the Oregon Senate race. Let’s have a look.

SurveyUSA (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/22-23 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 46 (44)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (42)

Dave Brownlow (C): 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Check out the Pollster.com trend (which does not yet include this poll). Call it a downward spiral for El Gordo, if you will:

UPDATE: Crosstabs available here. And here’s a bonus finding for you: Obama leads McCain by 57-40 in the same poll. (H/T: skywaker9)

Bennett Petts & Normington for the DCCC (10/8-9, likely voters):

Don Cazayoux (D-inc): 46

Bill Cassidy (R): 29

Michael Jackson (I): 9

(MoE: ±4.9%)

That spread is very similar to a recent Anzalone Liszt internal for Cazayoux showing a 48-32-9 race. While I’m still not comfortable seeing turncoat Dem Michael Jackson getting nearly one-tenth of the vote, that number could come down a notch in November (as it often happens with third-party challengers), and the DCCC already has boots on the ground with a well-organized field campaign here.

It seems that for all the hype, we haven’t seen any evidence that Cassidy is really catching on so far.

Hamilton Campaigns for Joe Garcia (10/8-9, likely voters, 7/7-13 in parens):

Joe Garcia (D): 42 (33)

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45 (55)

Undecided: 13 (13)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

That’s some big movement for Joe Garcia, and right in line with two other recent polls of this race. Carlos McDonald had Diaz-Balart up by 43-41, while Research 2000 pegged the race at 45-41 for Diaz-Balart. There’s one big difference between this poll and R2K’s poll — and that’s the Presidential preference of the district.

Research 2000 gave McCain a 53-38 margin here, indicating no coattails whatsoever to help Garcia. This internal poll, however, finds Obama with a 47-43 lead in the district — up considerably from a 40-49 deficit in July. Bear in mind that this is an R+4.4 district, albeit one that has seen a dramatic Democratic voter registration surge.

In any case, we now have three recent polls showing Diaz-Balart lingering in the mid-40s, which is not a comfortable place for any incumbent to be.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

SurveyUSA (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/28-29 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 43 (44)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 46 (46)

Allen Buckley (L): 6 (5)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Hot damn! Things are still awfully close in Georgia. Ladies and gentlemen, if you were thinking of donating to Jim Martin but haven’t done so yet, today’s your last chance to double your money. DavidNYC will be matching up to $500 in donations made on SSP’s Actblue page, and we still have a ways to go before we make SSP’s Blogfather pony up every cent.

Let’s help Jim Martin close the gap.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 51-43 according to the same poll.

(H/T: RandySF)

UPDATE: We only need another $200 or so before DavidNYC kicks in with his match. Who will put us over the top?

Anzalone Liszt for Kay Hagan (10/5-9, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 44 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 39 (38)

Chris Cole (L): 5

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Hagan is weathering a barrage of hits from the GOP lately, but her numbers are holding. And check this out:

The narratives that have taken hold in this race are ominous for Dole. By almost a 2:1 margin, voters say that Dole doesn’t spend enough time in North Carolina (50% agree / 27% disagree). And just 46% agree that Dole is effective, while 44% disagree.

A pair of other polls were released in recent days from this race: WSOC-TV gave Hagan a bare 44-43 lead, while Civitas had Hagan ahead by 45-42 — the first time that Hagan has ever posted a lead from that pollster.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (10/8-9, likely voters, 6/9-11 in parens):

Dina Titus (D): 40 (42)

Jon Porter (R-inc): 43 (45)

Other: 4

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±6.4%)

The last couple of polls we’ve seen from this district, both of them Anzalone Liszt internals from July and September, have both shown Titus leading by four and nine points, respectively. (Even Porter’s own internal poll showed him leading by only a 41-39 margin.)

The best news for Porter in this poll is Titus’ favorability rating, which clocks in at 37-46 (compared to 40-34). The RGJ speculates that Porter’s hits against Titus are giving him the same kind of traction that Jim Gibbons got in his gubernatorial campaign against Titus in 2006. In the latest Anzalone poll of this race, those numbers were flipped: Titus had a 50-37 favorable score, while Porter was only at 44-41.

In any case, no incumbent is in a good position at 43% in the polls, and Porter will have to slog this one out on his own for a little while before the NRCC kicks in on his behalf.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 47-45 statewide.

Two more polls from the Great Orange Satan tonight. Let’s pop open the hood and have a look.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):

Glenn Nye (D): 37

Thelma Drake (R-inc): 51

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±5%)

This is an R+6, military-heavy district that is often seen as a something of a bellwether for statewide contests (and according to this poll, McCain is leading Obama by 51-42), though keep in mind that even Jim Webb lost this district by a few points in 2006. This district is about 20% black, and that population is more dispersed and difficult to turn out than in other parts of the state — and, according to the Cook Political Report, African-American turnout has been in the 10-15% range of the electorate in recent election. The black turnout is pretty key to Nye’s chances, and it’s hard to gauge this poll without knowing its racial breakdown. A recent Nye internal pegged this race at five points.

And over in West Virginia… Research 2000 (10/7-8, likely voters):

Anne Barth (D): 39

Shelley Moore Capito (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±5%)

Barth has a lot of work to do, clearly, but at least the spread is a lot closer than the “2-1 Capito lead” that Stuart Rothenberg was writing about last month (presumably he was talking about Capito’s own polling).

Most interesting, though, are the Presidential numbers: McCain leads Obama by 48-41 in the 2nd District. That’s not quite the 57-42 win that Bush posted here in 2004.

SSP currently rates VA-02 as Lean Republican and WV-02 as Likely Republican.

Public Policy Polling (10/8-10, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):

Mark Udall (D): 49 (48)

Bob Schafer (R): 39 (40)

Undecided: 12 (12)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Udall has run, from my vantage point, a competent but not exactly an amazing campaign. In a year like this, and in a rapidly bluing state like Colorado, that appears to be enough. Just check out the Presidential numbers: Obama is smacking McCain by 52-42.

Udall leads by 54-35 among urban voters, 50-40 among suburban voters, and edges Schaffer by 45-40 among small town voters. Schaffer only holds a bare 45-43 advantage in the rural vote. Even in the demographic breakdowns, Udall has decisive advantages among Hispanic and African-American voters, and wins white voters by 47-43. There’s just not much that Schaffer has going for him in this poll.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.