Tag: Polls

Daily Kos released a pair of new House polls last night and today. Let’s take a look.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/6-8, likely voters):

Bob Lord (D): 39

John Shadegg (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±5%)

The last poll we saw of this race, from Anzalone Liszt showed a dead heat. R2K didn’t include the Libertarian candidate in its polling (an oversight), which Markos believes would have shaved off a point or two from Shadegg. In any case, Shadegg is under 50 and is currently weathering a series of big hits from both Lord and the DCCC (who have spent nearly $700K on this race so far). A recent Roll Call article takes note of some displeasure with Shadegg’s campaign by DC GOP insiders, so you have to wonder what their own internal polling is telling them.

But this is even more remarkable — check out the Presidential numbers in this district. McCain is only beating Obama by 50-39 here. Put that in perspective: This is an R+6.5 district that Bush carried by 58-41 in 2004. Despite having a homestate advantage, and Obama largely not contesting the state (at least, in terms of serious media buys), McCain is only hitting 50%. That’s pretty stunning, and possibly an ominous sign for Republicans like Tim Bee and Dave Schweikert, who were counting on some McNap coattails to carry them over the line in the 8th and 5th Districts.

And now for Nebraska. Research 2000 (10/6-8, likely voters):

Jim Esch (D): 39

Lee Terry (R-inc): 49

(MoE: ±5%)

Nothing especially strong for Lee Terry there (especially when you consider that this is an R+9 district), but also one that doesn’t seem to have budged much from Terry’s 55-45 win over Esch in 2006. In Esch’s favor, he’s getting the kind of help that he lacked last time: Obama has opened his third field office in Omaha just recently, and the DCCC has reserved $435K worth of ad time against Terry (although no ads have been aired yet, to the best of my knowledge). It would be nice if we could check in with this race with a few more polls in a couple of weeks.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 53-40 in this district.

Two polls confirm it — Democrat Tom Perriello is making some big progress in his race against crumb-bum Republican Rep. Virgil Goode.

Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens)

Tom Perriello (D): 40 (31)

Virgil Goode (R-inc): 48 (56)

Undecided: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

On Wednesday, SurveyUSA released a poll showing Perriello trailing Goode by 55-42, a steep decline from Goode’s 64-30 lead in August. This is a tough, culturally conservative R+5.6 district that includes the very liberal pocket of Charlottesville. It’s unlikely that Perriello will find a great deal of Obama coattails here, but then again, SUSA’s latest polling had Obama ahead or tied in all four major regions of Virginia (admittedly, this doesn’t mean that Obama is ahead in the 5th).

Perriello is running a solid, smart campaign so far by all indications. I’m not sure if it will be enough to break Goode’s grip on the district, but this is the stiffest fight that the GOP has had here in quite some time.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/6-8, likely voters):

Bob Lord (D): 45

John Shadegg (R-inc): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hot damn. Bob Lord and the DCCC have been pummeling Shadegg over the airwaves in recent weeks (just check out their latest ad), while Shadegg has mostly been yawning his way through the past month. A recent Roll Call article suggests that Shadegg has been caught completely off-guard, and is struggling to adjust.

Daily Kos will also be releasing a poll of this race soon, so I’m looking forward to seeing what their numbers tell us.

Cooper & Secrest for Mike Montagano (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/9-10 and April in parens):

Mike Montagano (D): 39 (37, 28)

Mark Souder (R-inc): 44 (50, 55)

William Larsen (L): 4

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Those are some very exciting numbers for Democrat Mike Montagano, who is running an excellent race against do-nothing GOP congressman Mark Souder. Remember, this is an R+16 district in the corner of Northeast Indiana — a district that Bush carried by 37 points in 2004, but also one that Souder won by a pathetic 54-46 margin in 2006.

Here’s the best nugget of the poll: Among those who have seen Montagano’s ads, he leads Souder by 53-32. If he can continue to get his message out, he has a fighting chance in this deep red district.

Anzalone Liszt for Bobby Bright (10/5-7, likely voters, 8/3-6 in parens):

Bobby Bright (D): 46 (50)

Jay Love (R): 45 (40)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Bright leads among Independents (51-37), and has a higher favorable rating than Love (58-27 compared to Love’s 50-33), but the race has definitely tightened — thanks to Freedom’s Crotch and the NRCC doubling down, no doubt. However, Anzalone also finds that, by a 2:1 margin, voters say their opinion of Bright has become more favorable over the past two weeks, with the mirror opposite true for Love.

There’s one important piece of information to note — Anzalone uses a 25% African-American sample in their polling, which they consider a “conservative” estimate of the black vote (the district’s African-American registration is around 28%). The DCCC is on the ground in AL-02 right now, paying for field staff to help get out as many votes as possible for Bright. This one could be close.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/5-7):

Judy Baker (D): 40

Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 36

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Two recent polls — one by SurveyUSA in early September and another by Research 2000 in mid-September showed Baker trailing Luetkemeyer by 12 and 9 points, respectively, but that was before the shit really hit the economic fan, and also before the DCCC started hitting the airwaves with ads highlighting Luetkemeyer’s support for Social Security privatization (the bad kind of “SSP”). I’d wait for a few more polls before accepting these numbers as gospel, though.

Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/6-7, likely voters):

Mark Schauer (D): 43

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 35

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Those numbers are basically a death sentence for an incumbent, and they’re not far off at all from a recent Schauer internal poll showing Walberg trailing by 46-36. Obama leads McCain by 46-37 in this poll, which might be a bit optimistic for a district that supported Bush by 54-45 in 2004, but perhaps that’s the byproduct of John McCain flipping his wrinkly middle finger at the entire state of Michigan in recent days.

And while we’re on this race, check out the attack ads from both Schauer (hitting Walberg on his ties to the Club For Growth) and Walberg (hitting Schauer for being endorsed by… Michael Moore):

Now, pray tell, which one would you assign descriptors like “effective” and “sane” to? That’s what I thought.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the DCCC (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 44

Steve Stivers (R): 36

Don Eckhart (I): 7

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Impressive numbers from a reputable pollster. You’ll recall that Stivers, a state senator and veteran, was one of the NRCC’s most highly-prized recruits. However, this is the second poll in a row to give Kilroy the lead (SurveyUSA had Kilroy up by 47-42 last month). Perhaps his career as a banking lobbyist isn’t the right profile in these troubled times.

If Stivers and the NRCC have better numbers than these, I invite them to share their polls. I don’t think we’ve seen a Republican internal poll of this race in some time.

Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/4-5, likely voters, 8/17-19 in parens):

Gary Peters (D): 46 (41)

Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 37 (37)

Jack Kevorkian (I): 2 (8)

Undecided: 15 (14)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

While these numbers may be a bit on the optimistic side (Peters is ahead by three in his own internal polling, and another recent poll has the race tied), the trend lines are the most important take-away.

Faced with ugly poll numbers and an economic crisis in his district, it’s perhaps no surprise that the only thing that Knollenberg can say is: “Sarah, HALP!“

Rasmussen (10/8, likely voters, 9/23 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (48)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

For the first time in Rasmussen’s polling, Dole’s favorable/unfavorable rating has bottomed out to a 1:1 ratio (49-49, down from 52-44 in September), while Hagan’s rating has also fallen from 51-39 to 50-45. That’s the power of the NRSC, Freedom’s Crotch and other GOP-friendly orgs at work, but for all their many attack ads accusing Hagan of being a tax-addicted tax-hiker from Taxachusetts, they haven’t seemed to douse North Carolina’s desire for change.