Mitchell Research & Communications (9/30-10/2, likely voters):
Gary Peters (D): 43
Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 43
(MoE: ±6%)
The sample size is a bit small, but add it to the growing pile of polls showing crumb-bum Joe Knollenberg in a tight spot.
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
Research 2000 for WISHTV (9/29-10/3, likely voters):
Baron Hill (D-inc): 49
Mike Sodrel (R): 37
(MoE: ±5%)
When pressed for comment, the Mike Sodrel campaign refused to believe the veracity of any poll whose respondents were not hooked up to lie detectors.
Crosstabs available here.
The polls don’t stop, and neither do we.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):
Michael Skelly (D): 40
John Culberson (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)
These are pretty remarkable numbers for a Democrat in this R+16 district (the 36th-most Republican district in the nation) that delivered 38 and 28-point wins to Bush in 2000 and 2004, respectively. They’re also pretty similar to a GQR poll from last month that showed Skelly trailing Culberson by 37-44.
Skelly has run a flawless campaign, and these numbers prove not only that he’s gaining traction, but that the district is continuing to trend just a bit bluer. Check out the Presidential numbers: McCain is only leading Obama by 51-39 in this affluent suburban Houston district. That’s a far, far cry from the kinds of margins that Bush racked up here over his past two elections.
Garin Hart Yang for Bruce Lunsford (10/6-7, likely voters):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 45
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Could this be the mystery poll that the Rothenberg Political Report teased us with last week? Maybe. (Update: Nope, this poll was conducted just a few days ago.)
In any case, even McConnell’s own pollster agrees — this race is getting closer.
The full polling memo, which includes some good news about the undecided vote, is available below the fold.
Voter/Consumer Research for Mitch McConnell (10/5-8, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 38 (35)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 47 (52)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
The biggest take-away here is simple: Mitch is below 50% in his own polling for the first time. Other polling in recent weeks, from both Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA have shown a dead heat, while Rasmussen is a bit closer to McConnell’s numbers.
Lunsford’s favorable/unfavorable spread is 31-40, which is not great for us, but this might be the kind of year where voters are a bit more willing to accept his flaws in order to push change in a time of crisis.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
UPDATE: Har-har.
More bad news for GOP Rep. “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl: a third poll released this week is showing him trailing Democrat Eric Massa.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):
Eric Massa (D): 49
Randy Kuhl (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±5%)
Boom! Just in case you need to play catch-up, on Monday, we saw other early October polls from SurveyUSA and the Benenson Strategy Group, both showing Massa ahead by 7 and 5 points, respectively.
Economic woes have hit New York’s 29th District especially hard in recent years, and those hard times seem to be enough to overcome the district’s decidedly Republican tilt (Bush won here by 56-42 in 2004). Just check out the Presidential numbers: Obama has a 48-45 lead over McCain in this Appalachian district. Don’t believe it? SurveyUSA had almost the exact same result on Monday night, with Obama edging McCain by 49-47 here.
Things are looking dicey for Shotgun Randy. Just check out his favorable rating: 33-44. Brutal. Massa, on the other hand, is sitting at 45-27.
Franklin & Marshall College (9/30-10/5, registered voters incl. leaners):
Chris Carney (D-inc): 48
Chris Hackett (R): 33
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Carney is not out of the woods yet, but this is still a good showing for a freshman Dem in an R+8 district. It’s also similar to other recent polls we’ve seen of this race: Momentum Analysis had Carney up by 50-36, and Lycoming College pegged the race at 46-36.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
Siena College (9/30-10/5, likely voters):
SD-37
Suzi Oppenheimer (D-inc): 61
Liz Feld (R): 24
(MoE: ±4.9%)
SD-55
David Nachbar (D): 21
James Alesi (R-inc): 62
(MoE: ±4.8%)
SD-58
William Stachowski (D-inc): 36
Dennis Delano (R): 49
(MoE: ±4.6%)
SD-59
Kathy Konst (D): 33
Dale Volker (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Siena has released a second batch of polls of contested New York Senate races. The first batch was a few weeks ago, and pointed to a likely Democratic pickup and another tied race, enough to flip control of the Senate to the Democrats (who are currently down 31-29 with 2 vacancies).
Unfortunately, this round of polling shows a fly in the ointment that wasn’t apparent before: incumbent Democrat William Stachowski from 55th District in Buffalo’s blue-collar suburbs (another long-term presence, in office since 1981) is trailing Dennis Delano, and by a substantial margin. (Delano, a Buffalo police detective, is apparently a local law enforcement celebrity.) If this seat goes down, the possibility of a tied Senate looms large.
Other polls in this race include two GOP-held upstate seats where the Democratic candidates (the highly-touted David Nachbar, and Kathy Konst, who bailed out of the NY-26 primary to run for state senate instead) have uphill climbs, and a seat in Westchester County where the Democratic incumbent looks to hang on easily. Several other closely contested races that are promising for the Dems (Padavan/Gennaro in SD-11 and Barber/Seward in SD-51) remain unpolled, so the quest to flip the New York state senate remains in limbo.
Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/5-6, likely voters, 9/14-15 in parens):
Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 47 (48)
Lou Barletta (R): 39 (39)
Undecided: 13 (14)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
This poll comes on the heels of a recent Barletta internal poll showing Kanjorski trailing by 39-47. Neither result is particularly great for Kanjorski, especially considering that he’s hovering below 50% in the DCCC’s own polling.
I understand that Daily Kos will be releasing a Research 2000 poll of this race soon. I’m looking forward to seeing which side of these dueling polls they agree with.
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
Kiley & Company for Dan Maffei (10/2-3, likely voters, mid-August in parens):
Dan Maffei (D): 49 (38)
Dale Sweetland (R): 31 (26)
Howie Hawkins (G): 6
(MoE: ±4%)
Maffei takes solid leads among Democrats (74-10), Independents (51-21), and even takes 28% of the Republican vote. I don’t see how Sweetland can claw his way up in this D+3.4 open seat race — especially not with the kind of money that he’s been raising.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.