Tag: Polls

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Gary Peters (10/6-7, likely voters):

Gary Peters (D): 43

Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 40

Jack Kevorkian (I): 5

Other: 5

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.9%)

There’s a lot of good news for Gary Peters in this poll. Not only is he leading Knollenberg, the incumbent is sitting at only 40% — a perilous level. What’s more, Peters still has some room to grow — his name recognition is still only 48% in the district (compared to Knollenberg’s 80%, which is actually an unremarkable number for a long-time incumbent). it’s no wonder that Knollenberg has been begging pathetically for Sarah Palin to join him on the campaign trail after McCain pulled his operation from the state.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Ivan Moore is back with a new batch of Alaska polls. Let’s see how the Killer B’s are doing.

Ivan Moore Research (10/3-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 49 (48)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 45 (46)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

And here’s the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (49)

Don Young (R-inc): 42 (44)

So the Senate race remains pretty close (a recent Rasmussen poll had Stevens ahead by a point), and Stevens’ favorable rating has actually improved over recent weeks: from 48-44 to 51-41 today. That’s despite being under trial (albeit one that looks to be something of a gong show on the prosecution’s part).

Interestingly, Moore also finds that the kids are much bigger Stevens fans than their elders: Stevens leads Begich by 52-36 among 18-34 year-olds, while Begich flips those numbers and takes a 55-38 lead among voters aged 65 and up. A bit confounding, but there you go.

In the House race, Ivan has better news for Democrats:

At last, the Berk moves. He started with an ad on TV last Monday which was much more along the lines of what he needed, showing strength and his willingness to stand up and do the right thing. All of sudden, with just a week of that spot airing, his positive is up to a high of 53 percent and his negative has ticked back down. The race is now a 9-point Berkowitz lead.

Meanwhile, Don is nowhere to be seen. No TV, no radio, no campaign really. Just in the last few days, he’s gotten a TV buy in that starts mid-next week, on or around the 15th. If that’s when he comes up, he’ll be giving Ethan a 2-plus week headstart with unopposed media-a death sentence this close to the election.

Now, Moore goes on to say that he never counts Young out (and we shouldn’t either), as evidenced by a massive $700K media buy against him by the DCCC — serious money for a committee that wants to take no chances here.

SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 8/26-28 in parens):

Ashwin Madia (D): 46 (41)

Erik Paulsen (R): 43 (44)

David Dillon (IP): 8

(MoE: ±4%)

These numbers aren’t far off from a recent DCCC internal poll showing Madia leading by 44-39. SUSA still seems to have a questionably GOP-tilted sample of young voters (they break for Paulsen by a 51-40 margin in this poll), but that might be offset by a possibly-skewed 53-38 Madia lead among 50-to-64 year-olds.

Interestingly, Tom Scheck over at Minnesota Public Radio writes that the NRCC has scaled back their mid-October ad rotation in support of Paulsen, though the committee still has $216,450 in reserved time available. Are they shifting that scrilla to any number of their many incumbents in tight races?

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 49-47 in this district. Bush beat Kerry here by 51-48 in 2004. Crosstabs are available here (PDF).

Rasmussen (10/7, likely voters, 9/16 in parens)

Jim Martin (D): 44 (43)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)

Allen Buckley (L): 2

(MoE: ±4.5%)

As we’ve seen in recent polls from SUSA, Reserach 2000, and the Mellman Group, this race is stunningly close. Some might call this “striking distance”. However, Martin will still need some help to capitalize on this opportunity.

Daily Kos just gave Martin the “Orange to Blue” treatment today. Let’s hope the that the DSCC will hop on the Jim Martin Express soon, too.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 54-45 according to the same poll. That’s down slightly from 54-43 last month.

Minnesota Public Radio recently commissioned two polls of the Minnesota Senate race, coinciding just before and after the VP debate — and the results were wildly different. Let’s take a look.

MPR/Humphrey Institute (9/29-10/1, likely voters, 8/7-17 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 31 (41)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 40 (40)

Dean Barkley (I): 14 (8)

(MoE: ±5.3%)

And here’s what they found in their next poll (10/3-5):

Al Franken (D): 41

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37

Dean Barkley (I): 14

(MoE: ±4.8%)

MPR spins the dramatically different results as being influenced by “the extraordinary financial crisis and the resulting congressional response along with the polarizing reaction to the Vice Presidential debate on Oct. 2”.

Maybe. Or maybe there’s a flaw with their methodology. If anything, we’ve seem some dramatically varying polls out of Minnesota in recent days, so it’s hard to trust anything other than the Pollster.com composite. And guess what? It’s tightening.

SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 8/10-12):

Tom Perriello (D): 42 (30)

Virgil Goode (R-inc): 55 (64)

Undecided: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±3.8%

That’s some nice movement for Perriello, who has been up on the airwaves in recent days with a set of NASCAR-themed ads (see here, here and here). It’s still very much an uphill fight for Perriello in this R+5.6 district, but it’s clear that he’s made a lot of progress over the past couple of months.

Research 2000 (10/3-5, likely voters, 8/18-20 in parens):

Jill Derby (D): 41 (42)

Dean Heller (R-inc): 48 (47)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Some pretty marginal movement here, but Heller remains under 50% and Derby’s within striking distance. The Reno Gazette-Journal also brings us this tease:

On an interesting side note, Heller’s numbers are much better in CD2 than John McCain’s. An indication, perhaps, that the Heller campaign is taking its ground game more seriously than the top of the ticket.

The article doesn’t give us the McCain-Obama head-to-heads, but if McCain is underperforming Heller in this close poll, he’s starting way behind statewide. After all, Bush won this district by 16 points in 2004 (and by 20 points in 2000).

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

PPP (10/4-5, likely voters, 9/28-29 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 46 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (44)

Michael Munger (L): 4 (5)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

After losing her lead in PPP’s poll last week (the pollster who has usually been most favorable to her), Democratic Lt. Governor Bev Perdue slips back into the lead in the race for North Carolina’s open gubernatorial seat. We could be seeing more lifting of all Democratic boats in the wake of financial chaos (especially the takeover of NC-based Wachovia). Or, bearing in mind that this same sample gave Obama a 6-point lead and Kay Hagan a jaw-dropping 9-point lead, PPP might have had a particularly Dem-favorable sample this week.

PPP also polled some of the races for North Carolina’s Council of State. Democrats Beth Wood and Elaine Marshall lead their races for Auditor and Secretary of State, respectively, by rather comfortable margins, while Ronnie Ansley trails Republican Steve Troxler by 2 in the Ag Commissioner race.

Rasmussen (10/6, likely voters, 9/9 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (48)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 49 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Ruh-roh. This poll was taken on the same day that some damaging phone conversations were aired in court — probably not enough time for that piece of news to sink in. However, it does reflect a worrying trend.

I’ve been speculating that the DSCC’s decision to launch attack ads against Stevens is having some perverse consequences in a state unfriendly to outsiders (especially Democratic ones). It’s only a hunch, but just ask the Club For Growth how their moneynuke against Don Young ended up doing.

In short: I never underestimate the tendency of Republicans to rally around their own. After all, Stevens is still liked by a majority of voters: 54% have a favorable opinion of him, while 44% have an unfavorable opinion. Begich is still cleaner, at 59-36, but those top lines give me pause.

I believe that Ivan Moore should have a new poll of this race out in the next couple of days, so I’m looking forward to seeing what his numbers show.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

John Boccieri (D): 48

Kirk Schuring (R): 38

Other: 4

(MoE: ±5%)

Now that’s a result that I can believe in, my friends, and it strongly corroborates a recent SUSA poll showing Boccieri ahead by 49-41.

This Canton-based district has been drifting Democratic in recent cycles, going from an 11-point Bush margin in 2000 to a 54-46 Bush result four years later. This poll finds that the trend is continuing, showing Obama leading McCain by 49-46 (SUSA pegged McCain leading by two in mid-September).

While it’s too early to pop the champagne corks just yet, it’s hard not to feel good about this race.