Tag: Polls

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

Steve Driehaus (D): 46

Steve Chabot (R-inc): 44

Other: 4

(MoE: ±5%)

Very nice numbers for Driehaus; in fact, they’re the mirror image of a recent SurveyUSA poll showing Chabot up by two. One key difference between R2K’s poll and SUSA is their estimation of the African-American vote: SUSA pegged black turnout at 28%, while R2K places it at 30%. This district is 28% black, so that number may or may not be on the optimistic side.

Both polls find Chabot taking about 20% of the African-American vote — a pretty high score for a Republican in this day and age, but also one that could potentially come down as the DCCC moves into full bombardment mode.

In any event, an incumbent sitting in the mid-40s in a year like this is in a dangerous place. It’s no small wonder that the NRCC is spending $2.2 million on this race and MI-07 in an effort to hold the line.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by a 53-39 margin in this district.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Myers Research & Strategic Services for Mark Schauer (10/5-6, likely voters, 9/23-24 in parens):

Mark Schauer (D): 46 (42)

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 36 (36)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Could we be seeing a bounce for Schauer after ex-GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz endorsed him last week? It’s not the only bounce for a Democrat in this district: after McCain decided to flip the bird to the entire state of Michigan by withdrawing his campaign from the state, Obama has pulled ahead to a 50-39 lead over McCain here. Maybe that’s a bit optimistic, but there’s no denying that Walberg lost some pretty key infrastructure after McCain pulled out his ground game in Michigan.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: The Politico reports that the NRCC is dropping $2.2 million in ads against Schauer and Steve Driehaus in OH-01. That’s a lot of scrilla — at that rate, they’ll only be able to make concentrated bursts in a relatively small number of districts, and still get outspent by the D-trip.

Susquehanna Polling and Research for Lou Barletta (10/2, likely voters, 9/22 in parens):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 39 (41)

Lou Barletta (R): 47 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

More brutal numbers for Kanjorski — just take a look at his upside-down favorable and re-elect scores (below the fold). Overall, the numbers are not far off from a recent Franklin & Marshall poll showing Barletta leading by 44-35.

The DCCC and the National Association of Realtors have spent over $1.5 million on shoring up Kanjorski so far this year, and I bet they’re not planning on quitting now. For all their efforts, though, Kanjorski could end up being “the one” on election night.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Carlos McDonald/Telemundo51 (9/27-10/1, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 43

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5.7%)

One thing from the crosstabs doesn’t jive: Diaz-Balart is leading Martinez by 48-44 among men, but apparently Martinez has a 49-43 lead among women. It makes no sense at all for Diaz-Balart to have a five point lead with a breakdown like that, so I think it’s reasonable to conclude that Telemundo51 must have accidentally flipped the female numbers between the two candidates.

The ethnic split also pretty much tells the story: Cuban-Americans favor Diaz-Balart by 61-30 while non-Cuban Hispanics give Martinez a 53-37 edge. Whites and African-Americans favor Martinez by 47-39.

This is shaping up to be a close one.

Carlos McDonald/Telemundo51 (9/27-10/1, likely voters):

Joe Garcia (D): 41

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 43

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Both Garcia and Diaz-Balart are scoring roughly an equal amount of support from their own parties (81% of Dems are for Garcia, and 82% of Republicans side with Diaz-Balart), but Independents are breaking for the Democrat by a 44-38 margin. While the margin of error for this one is a bit portly, it’s very close to the results we’ve seen from other pollsters. Research 2000 gave Diaz-Balart a 45-41 edge here a few days before this poll was conducted, and an earlier Bendixen poll from June showed a 44-39 race.

And here’s the scene in the 18th District, the toughest nut of the South Florida trio:

Annette Taddeo (D): 35

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Taddeo has a slight edge (39-36) among Independent voters, and this is the first time that Ros-Lehtinen has been under 50 in a poll this year. Bendixen had Taddeo trailing by 27 points in June, and Research 2000 showed a 17-point Ros-Lehtinen lead last week. It’s still a tough race for Taddeo, but these numbers offer some hope. After all, some incumbents who posted bigger leads than this in late September polls ended up feeling some November Pain in 2006.

UPDATE (David): Telemundo also polled FL-21 (Raul Martinez vs. Lincoln Diaz-Balart) but hasn’t released those numbers yet. However, they have offered the traditional bonus finding: Across all three S. Fla districts, McCain leads Obama 52-39, similar to what we’ve seen in other polls.

Also note that there’s a discrepancy between the MoEs advertised by Telemundo and the sample sizes they’ve proffered. The individual district polls included just 300 respondents each, which ordinarily means an MoE of 5.7%. Telemundo for some reason has reported this as just a 5% MoE, but that can’t be correct. Similarly, for all three polls (900 respondents), the MoE is higher than the 3% they claim – more like 3.3%.

Public Policy Polling (10/4-5, likely voters, 9/27-28 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 40 (38)

Christopher Cole (L): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Wow. PPP’s Tom Jensen has more:

In a state like North Carolina with a large Democratic registration advantage, a Republican candidate has to peel off a lot of voters from the other party to win statewide. But Elizabeth Dole is barely winning more of the Democratic vote- 12%- than Kay Hagan is taking of the Republican vote- 9%. Add in a 44-33 lead for Hagan with independents and it’s the recipe for a near double digit lead for the Democratic challenger.

Hagan is also making strong in roads in rural North Carolina- where John McCain has a 16 point lead over Barack Obama, Dole has just a five point advantage over Hagan. Our polling, both public and private, has also found that Hagan is playing extremely well with the state’s quickly expanding group of suburban voters. She may well be the standard bearer of the profile of candidate who’s going to be successful statewide in 21st century North Carolina.

Remarkably, Obama has pulled up to a 50-44 lead over McCain according to the same poll. If Obama wins North Carolina, there is just no chance for Liddy Dole. It’s no small wonder that Freedom’s Crotch is hitting the panic button and dumping $750K in attack ads against Hagan this week.

Rasmussen (10/2, likely voters, 9/17 in parens):

Tom Allen (D): 43 (42)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 53 (55)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The Mellman Group for the DSCC (9/30-10/2, likely voters):

Tom Allen (D): 41

Susan Collins (R-inc): 49

(MoE: ±4%)

There are no direct trend lines available for the Mellman poll, but the DSCC says that Collins was leading by 15 points in their previous round of polling. While these numbers still aren’t great, they both show why this race isn’t completely off the map.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 52-35 in Maine according to the Mellman Group, and by 51-46 according to Rasmussen.

The Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/2-4, likely voters):

Eric Massa (D): 47

Randy Kuhl (R-inc): 42

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Amazingly, this is the first poll we’ve seen of this race all cycle, and it confirms that “Shotgun” Randy is in trouble. After a close race against Massa in 2006, it seems as if Kuhl’s heart just isn’t in the campaign this year. His fundraising has been sluggish, and he’s also shown very little interest in actually debating Massa, going so far as to say:

“At this point we haven’t agreed to any. We’ve taken the position that I’ve been real busy.”

While this is the most Republican district in New York (R+5), it’s an economically poor district that seems set to give Kuhl another volatile race this year. Watch out.

SurveyUSA (10/4-5, likely voters, 10/26-29/2007 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48 (53)

John Sununu (R-inc): 40 (42)

Ken Blevens (L): 7 (-)

(MoE: ± 3.9%)

Keep in mind those trend lines are from nearly a year ago, which just underscores how thoroughly strong Shaheen has been in this race. In fact, of all the many, many polls of this race since Shaheen’s entry, we’ve only seen two that have showed Sununu ahead — and those polls were by the sometimes-wobbly Rasmussen, and the often-funky ARG.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 53-40 in the same poll.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Bennett Petts & Normington for the DCCC (9/29-30):

Ashwin Madia (D): 44

Erik Paulsen (R): 39

David Dillon (IP): 8

(MoE: ±4.9%)

A SurveyUSA poll from a month earlier gave Paulsen a 44-41 lead. Since then, Paulsen has been engaging in some bizarre slams of Madia for not possessing the “suburban life experience” that comes with having kids and a mortgage. It’s all part of a vaguely racist campaign to paint Madia, an Iraq Vet and the son of Indian-American immigrants, as something other than a “real” Minnesotan.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.