Tag: Polls

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/29-10/1, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 44

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 45

Other: 4

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4%)

If these numbers are to be believed, we now have on helluva tight Senate race on our hands. Recent polls by SurveyUSA and the Mellman Group also pegged this race as within two or three points.

The poll also finds Martin running ahead of Obama, who is trailing McCain by 50-43. One point of concern to me, though, is this data point from SurveyUSA’s poll: among early voters (9% of their sample), 64% cast their votes for Obama, but only 61% cast their votes for Martin. For Martin to win here, he’d need to be running ahead of Obama (barring a miracle where Obama carries the state). There are still plenty more votes to be cast, though, so the big question that remains is whether or not the DSCC is going to make a fight of it here.

Awesome news: Pollster.com has re-launched its awesome House race map, which includes polling data and charts for every race which has been publicly polled.

If you know of any polls which Pollster has missed, let us know in comments and we’ll shoot an email over to our friends there once we have them all collected.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 38

Mark “Tiberius” Kirk (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5%)

The major flaw of this poll was that it was conducted during Rosh Hashanah, meaning that some Democratic-leaning voters could have been shut out of the poll in a distict with a significant Jewish population.

Still, though, the numbers are in-line with a Global Strategy Group poll from August showing Kirk ahead by 46-39. But the big number is at the top of the ticket, where Obama is leading McCain by 50-38. John Kerry won this district by only 53-47 in 2004, and Obama is poised to do significantly better here. That will seriously complicate things for faux moderate Mark Kirk as he tries to claw his way up to 50%.

Monmouth University (9/30-10/2, likely voters):

Linda Stender (D): 39

Leonard Lance (R): 43

Michael Hsing (I): 2

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.8%)

It’s a tight race, which is no surprise in this swing district. The previous poll that we saw from this match-up, by Dem pollster Anzalone Liszt, gave Stender a 36-33 lead, with Republican-turned-Independent Hsing taking a more sizable 9% of the vote. The silver lining for Stender here is the district’s general congressional preference, with 37% of registered voters preferring Democratic control of Congress to 29% siding with the GOP. Among undecided voters, that margin is 29-17.

Both candidates are largely undefined, with 55% having no opinion of Lance, and 51% having no opinion of Stender — though Stender’s unfavorables are slightly higher (22%) than Lance’s (18%).

The poll also gives Barack Obama a 47-46 lead over McCain in the 7th District. Bush won this CD by a 53-47 margin in 2004.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

(Hat-tip: Blue Jersey)

Mason-Dixon (9/29-10/1, likely voters, 8/13-15 in parens):

Mark Udall (D): 43 (47)

Bob Schaffer (R): 38 (37)

Undecided: 14 (14)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s a slight dip for Udall, who has been hammered by Freedom’s Watch and the NRSC in recent weeks. But the poll also finds a shift at the Presidential level, as well, with Obama and McCain tied at 44-44. Now, despite some recent polls showing Obama putting some daylight between himself and McCain in Colorado, the Pollster.com composite is still very close, so the result isn’t exactly outrageous.

Dick Wadhams and Bob Schaffer clearly hope to employ a strategy of “shoving a bunch of 30-second ads up [Udall’s] ass”, but the poll has a bit of discouraging news for the GOP: Schaffer’s unfavorable score has risen from 25 to 43%, while Udall’s has only edged up from 23 to 26. That might be the kiss of death right there.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

As you may have noticed, things have been pretty busy here at the Swing State Project during the past several weeks. With all the news we’ve been discussing, it’s pretty easy to miss a poll while taking a break to blink. So here’s a roundup of all the House race polls released since the start of September. If I’ve missed something, let me know. Incumbents are in italics.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1):

Vic Wulsin (D): 39

Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 46

Other: 7

(MoE: ±5%)

We’ve seen a flurry of polls from this race in recent days. A week ago, SurveyUSA found Mean Jean ahead by 48-40, followed by a Momentum Analysis internal for Wulsin showing a 37-36 Schmidt lead, and topped off with a Schmidt internal from the Tarrance Group giving the incumbent a 52-36 lead.

This poll basically splits the difference between the two campaigns’ numbers. While it also finds that Schmidt continues to post weak favorables (41-43), Wulsin’s aren’t much better (41-42). But in an anti-incumbent wave election, it’s possible for a gap like this to close — after all, Schmidt was leading by five points in the last poll before the 2006 elections, and Wulsin ended up losing by only two percent. That task becomes harder with GOP coattails in a conservative R+13 district like this one, but here’s a sign of hope: McCain is only leading Obama here by 52-41. That’s a far cry from the 64-36 drubbing that Bush gave to John Kerry here in 2004.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star Tribune (9/30-10/2, likely voters, 9/10-12 in parentheses):

Al Franken (D): 43 (37)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 34 (41)

Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (13)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK, the Minnesota senate race is officially making my head hurt. In the last 24 hours, we’ve seen a SurveyUSA poll give Coleman an unbeatable 10-point edge and a Dem internal give Franken a fragile 2-point edge… and now Minnesota’s principal newspaper (the Star Tribune) finds a 9-point lead for Franken, a huge turnaround from a 4-point Coleman lead two weeks ago during the height of Palinmania.

Like the SurveyUSA poll, this poll sees Barkley taking a bigger chunk out of the electorate. Interestingly, though, in this poll Barkley seems to be taking an equal bite out of each party: Franken and Coleman both get the support of 78% of their respective party members, while 12% of both Republicans and Democrats support Barkley. Instead, the real source of Franken’s success in this poll seems to be Coleman’s job approval rating, which has drifted down into Gordon Smith territory at 38%.

The presidential race numbers from the Star Tribune poll won’t be released until Sunday, but somehow I suspect they’ll be a bit better than the 1-point McCain lead that SUSA just reported.

Momentum Analysis for Chris Carney (9/29-10/1, likely voters, 8/19-21 in parens):

Chris Carney (D-inc): 50 (54)

Chris Hackett (R): 36 (27)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hackett has actually made a lot of headway since August, cutting a 27-point lead down to 14. But in a district this red (R+8), the contest was bound to tighten. The numbers are not far off from a recent Lycoming College poll showing Hackett up by a 46-36 margin.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Dem.

Rasmussen (10/2, likely voters, 9/10 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 48 (46)

Dino Rossi (GOP Party): 48 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Last month’s Rasmussen poll showing Republican challenger Dino Rossi suddenly shooting up to a 6-point lead (from the within-a-point-or-two stasis that had reigned almost all year) probably resulted in a lot of pants-soiling among Washington Dems. Well, I have no idea if that poll was a fleeting snapshot of Palinmania at its most fervent, or just one of Rasmussen’s occasional weird gyrations, but everything seems to have returned back to normal in the Washington gubernatorial race. (FWIW, the last Rasmussen presidential poll had Obama up by only 2, while today’s sample has him up 53-43.)

This poll was taken shortly after Builder-gate broke into the public consciousness, so it appears that Builder-gate has yet had little if any impact on the race, despite hopes that it might give Rossi a black eye… not that I would expect it to, as it turns on arcane aspects of state campaign finance law rather than anything sexy (or easily comprehensible). And while it does serve to make Rossi look a little sleazier, there are (as the latest poll shows) very few undecideds left to be swayed by a little more sleaze.

However, as of a few hours ago, Washington’s Republican Attorney General, Rob McKenna, just filed suit against Washington’s Republican Party for its involvement in the matter. So this will linger around on local newspapers’ front pages for a little while longer…

Here’s a relatively short introduction to Builder-Gate, courtesy of Goldy at Horse’s Ass, who, as he often does, beat the Seattle Times and Seattle Post-Intelligencer in breaking the story:

Rossi was an active participant in the [Building Industry Association of Washington]’s illegal fundraising scheme… a scheme for which the [Public Disclosure Commission] found the BIAW guilty of multiple “egregious” violations of Washington’s campaign finance and disclosure laws, and which is now being prosecuted by the Attorney General’s office.

But it is important to note that even if the BIAW had scrupulously conducted its campaign within the letter of the law (and it didn’t), Rossi would still be guilty of a major violation of our campaign statutes, for it is absolutely positively 100% illegal (not to mention grossly unethical) for a candidate to coordinate activities with an independent expenditure campaign.