Ciruli Associates for Economic Development Council of Colorado (9/19-23, registered voters, 9/12-15/2007):
Mark Udall (D): 45 (36)
Bob Schaffer (R): 38 (35)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Recently a lot of the polls of the Colorado Senate race have seemed either suspiciously close or suspiciously far apart, but here’s one that’s close to the mark if you average them all out. The same sample shows a closer presidential race, with Obama leading only 44-43.
The sponsor’s name might sound like this is a Republican internal poll, but this is apparently a nonpartisan poll conducted once a year by local pollsters Ciruli Associates.
Harstad Strategic Research for Walt Minnick (9/25-28, registered voters, 9/9-11 in parens):
Walt Minnick (D): 44 (43)
Bill Sali (R-inc): 38 (38)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
This is the second internal poll released from Minnick’s campaign this month showing Sali trailing. (The first poll can be found here.)
Sali continues to post atrocious job approval and popularity numbers; his favorable/unfavorable score is 38-41, and his job approval is even worse: 29-50. If Sali were occupying a more marginal district, he’d be instant road kill. Of course, Sali could never get elected dogcatcher in a competitive district. As it stands, though, he’s in trouble even in this deep red seat.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Research 2000 for South Bend Tribune/WSBT (9/28-30, likely voters):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 46
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4%)
The Indiana governor’s race was starting to slide off the map, with GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels leading Democratic ex-Representative Jill Long Thompson by double digits in most polls over the last few months (with the exception of a 4-point spread in a Selzer poll several weeks ago). However, R2K’s first poll of this race shows a dead heat.
Is it an outlier? Is it another indication that the economic chaos is lifting every Democratic boat, even JLT’s leaky dinghy? Or is it a sign that Obama’s uncontested ground game in Indiana is not only turning Indiana into a swing state but generating strong coattails (the same sample gives McCain a lead of only 46-45)?
Unlike recent Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA polls that have shown a small McConnell lead, Rasmussen has the incumbent retaining a wider — but not overwhelming — advantage. Still, this race could bust wide open, and I hope we’ll see many more polls in the remaining weeks.
Momentum Analysis for Vic Wulsin (9/29-30, likely voters, June in parens):
Vic Wulsin (D): 36 (33)
Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 37 (41)
David Krikorian (I): 11 (6)
Undecided: 16 (19)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Looks like the GOP is hitting an economic road-bump everywhere. This is still gonna be a tough race, but damn, Schmidt always makes things interesting.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
UPDATE: Schmidt has released her own poll by the Tarrance Group from early September showing her up on Wulsin by a 52-36 margin, with another 6% going to Krikorian.
Those are amazing numbers, and they also predict a Democratic rout at the top of the ticket: Obama leads McCain by 54-42 in the 8th District (a district that Bush won by 54-45 in 2004), and Kay Hagan leading Dole by 55-41.
This poll may be influenced by the recent financial crisis — banking and finance is a major employer in Charlotte — which has affected the area in a big way with Citi’s acquisition of NC-based Wachovia. So we might be seeing a bounce that could fade to some degree — but it does give you a good indication of the GOP on the brink of a meltdown here.
SurveyUSA (9/29-30, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):
Tom Udall (D): 58 (56)
Steve Pearce (R): 39 (41)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
More horribly fugly numbers for Pearce, coming off a recent PPP poll that had Udall up by a 57-37 margin. Steve Pearce doesn’t just need a miracle here — he needs a series of them.
Here’s a race that you don’t see polled every day.
Anzalone-Liszt for Bob Hackworth (9/7-11, likely voters):
Bob Hackworth (D): 33
C.W. “Bill” Young (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4.4%)
This is a D+1 district that Young has held since 1971. Despite occupying a district that voted for Bill Clinton twice, and Al Gore by a slim margin in 2000, Young has regularly won re-election by overwhelming margins. In fact, he weakest showing in his long career was in 1992, when he scored “only” 57% of the vote (the lone time his winning percentage slipped below 60). If this poll is any indication, it looks like he may slip below 60 once again.
Up the ballot, Obama held a 46-40 lead over McCain in this district when this poll was conducted (which, I’ll note, was well before the recent Florida surge for Obama). On the generic ballot, Dems hold a 42-34 lead over the GOP, and the undecideds in the congressional contest tilt Dem in their general preferences. While it looks like the general Democratic performance is shaping up to be stronger here than in 2004 (when Kerry lost the district by 49-51), it would probably require a big, big wave to carry Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth over the line in this contest.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Goodwin Simon Victoria Research for Larry Joe Doherty (9/28-30, likely voters, 5/27-31 in parens):
Larry Joe Doherty (D): 38 (34)
Mike McCaul (R-inc): 43 (43)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Here’s a key finding that might help explain McCaul’s sagging numbers: his name recognition is only at 59%. That’s pretty bad for an incumbent running for his third term.
While this is an R+13 district, the numbers are trending in the Democratic direction (Gore won only 34% of the vote here, but Kerry kicked it up a notch to 38% in 2004). We wrote about this district as a possible pick-up opportunity way back in June 2007, so it’s nice to see Democrat Larry Joe Doherty making a race of this.
I remain as skeptical as I’ve ever been that Noriega has enough gas in the tank to knock off Cornyn in this steeply expensive state, but the final result could give us a good sense of Texas’ blue trend.