Tag: Polls

Rasmussen (9/30, likely voters, 8/21 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47 (43)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 49 (53)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

In the previous Rasmussen poll of this race, Wicker had jumped up to 17% among African-Americans — today, the Republican is at a mere 2% (that’s probably a bit ridiculously low, just as 17% was probably overstating his support). Musgrove is at 21% among white voters; he may need to bump that up closer to 24 or 25% in order to seal the deal here, depending on the black turnout.

Note the favorable/unfavorable numbers for both candidates: Wicker is seemingly in stronger shape at 59-36, while Musgrove is a bit more banged up at 51-44. Yet the race is as tight as ever in this poll.

Hamilton Campaigns for Harry Teague (9/2-5, registered voters):

Harry Teague (D): 46

Ed Tinsley (R): 41

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Fresh off the wire. Note that this poll is of registered voters and is a few weeks old, but it does suggest that this race is wide open. In the previous round of internal polling for Teague, Tinsley was ahead by three points.

At a PVI of R+5.7, this district is filled with many conservative Democrats who are used to pulling the lever for Republicans like Steve Pearce, but Teague’s profile as an oilman with conservative tendencies is helping to put this open seat race in play.

UPDATE: The full polling memo is available below the fold, and it contains some nice movement for Teague’s favorable/unfavorable rating.

Val Smith for Tom McClintock (9/22-24, likely voters):

Charlie Brown (D): 39

Tom McClintock (R): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

Cute. Conservative Icon Tom McClintock finally releases an internal poll of his race to replace disgraced GOP Rep. John Doolittle, and this one shows the Icon leading by 8 points and splitting Independents by 37-48 in Brown’s favor. The poll’s release comes on the heels of a Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos that showed Brown up by five points, and a Benenson Strategy Group poll from late August that gave Brown a two-point lead.

I don’t know much about Val Smith (the Brown campaign is taking issue with their accuracy), but I think I’d rather trust the polls handled by R2K and Benenson — pollsters with more accomplished track records.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (9/26-28, likely voters):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 49

Phil English (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4%)

Oh yeah. No wonder Philly has been producing so much flop sweat in recent weeks — the only two polls that have been publicly-released from this race (including a Dahlkemper internal) show the incumbent in brutal shape.

The DCCC has been pounding English hard over the airwaves for the past several weeks, and the NRCC responded in kind tonight with a media buy of their own. I’m betting that their internal polling numbers are similarly bad.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but I think a ratings update may be due.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-46 in this district — not a bad margin, considering that Bush beat Kerry by 53-47 here in 2004.

SurveyUSA (9/28-29, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parens):

Andrew Rice (D): 37 (34)

Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 53 (56)

Stephen Wallace (I): 7 (6)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

A 22-point lead becomes a 16-point lead. Still an incredibly tough race, but some signs of life, perhaps?

On the Presidential side, McCain leads Obama by 64-34 in Oklahoma — that’s down ever so slightly from 65-32 earlier in the month. Despite all the bad economic news as of late, the needle hasn’t moved much at the top the ticket in this state.

PPP (9/28-29, likely voters, 9/17-19 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (44)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (43)

Michael Munger (L): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±3%)

Hmmmm. While most pollsters are seeing Barack Obama and Kay Hagan suddenly and surprisingly pulling away in North Carolina, it also seems that most pollsters are also seeing Democrat Bev Perdue fall behind Pat McCrory in the open North Carolina gubernatorial race.

What’s significant is that PPP is the pollster that has been most favorable to Perdue; this is the first PPP poll showing her trailing McCrory. This is also apparently the same sample that gave Hagan that staggering 8-point edge, so there seems to be some troublesome ticket splitting that’ll need to be overcome.

Not looking so hot. SurveyUSA (9/28-29, likely voters, 8/16-18 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 37 (38)

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 53 (52)

Andy Horning (L): 6 (3)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Sigh.

But at least these numbers from the same poll are trending in the opposite direction:

Barack Obama (D): 45 (44)

John McCain (R): 48 (50)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

I’d be freaking out if I were a McNap fan right now.

(Thanks to Blue Indiana for flagging these nums.)

Grove Insight for the DCCC (8/17-19, likely voters):

Gary Peters (D): 41

Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 37

Jack Kevorkian (I): 8

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This poll has been sitting on the shelf since August, and an EPIC-MRA poll from the same time showed GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg ahead by a 43-36 margin.

Knollenberg, who held back a challenge from underfunded challenger Nancy Skinner by a 52-46 margin in 2006, now faces a stiffer challenge from former state Senator Gary Peters. Knollenberg’s been hit hard in recent weeks by the DCCC and Patriot Majority, though he was given a big boost from the National Association of Realtors, who have spent over $530,000 on his behalf.

The poll also finds that Obama is leading McCain by 52-35 in this district, which seems like it may be a bit optimistic (Kerry lost this district by two points in 2004). EPIC-MRA found Obama leading by a slimmer margin of 43-39 here in their August poll.

SurveyUSA (9/28-29, likely voters, 9/14-16):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (36)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 46 (53)

Allen Buckley (L): 5 (8)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

When we saw this internal poll for the DSCC yesterday that showed Chambliss leading by only three, many of us were rightly skeptical. Now SurveyUSA is out with a poll confirming a tight race.

I took a quick glance at the crosstabs and couldn’t find any significant demographic differences between this poll and SUSA’s last one (in terms of the sample’s composition), but it’s worth noting that the same poll finds McCain ahead of Obama by 52-44 — a much more respectable margin than the 57-41 blowout of two weeks ago.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but it definitely is worth watching.

Update: Here’s one tidbit that I missed — of those who have already voted (9% of likely voters), Martin leads Chambliss by 61-36 an Obama leads McCain by 64-35.

University of Connecticut (9/22-28, likely voters):

Joe Courtney (D-inc): 55

Sean Sullivan (R): 27

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Remember how Ken Spain, the NRCC’s mouthpiece, was thumping his chest last year over Sullivan’s status as a “top-tier” “heavyweight“?

Yeah, me neither.

SSP rates this race as Safe Democratic.