Polls – Page 128 – Swing State Project

We’ve gotten up-and-down results in the race for Pennsylvania’s 10th District (a.k.a. “Chris vs. Chris”). Democratic internals have shown Chris C. doubling up on Chris H., but a recent SurveyUSA poll showed only a 4-point margin.

A new poll from Lycoming College (located in Williamsport, the population center of the district) gives Carney a bit more breathing room in this R+8 district, although he’s still below the magic 50% mark. Obama coattails in this heavily pro-Clinton district may not be strong, but maybe local-boy-made-good Joe Biden is generating some coattails of his own.

FL-25: Mario Diaz-Balart in a Tight Race

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters):

Joe Garcia (D): 41

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±5%)

The only other poll we’ve seen of this race was a Bendixen survey from June that showed GOP incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart in a similarly tight spot: leading Garcia 44-39.

The most impressive part for Garcia? Obama is losing this district by a 53-38 margin, so he’s outperforming the top of the ticket by a significant margin. Markos notes that a new SUSA poll shows Obama on the upswing in Southeast Florida, so perhaps this margin may improve.

Garcia still faces a tough fight ahead of him in this R+4.4 district, but this is clearly shaping up to be the toughest battle of Mario Diaz-Balart’s career.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

NC-Sen: Hagan Leads Dole by 8

Public Policy Polling (9/27-28, likely voters, 9/17-19 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 46 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 38 (41)

Christopher Cole (L): 6 (6)

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3%)

Dole under 40%? Whoa — those are some pug-ugly numbers for any incumbent. PPP’s Tom Jensen has the key finding:

Particularly [troubling] for Dole is how well Hagan is connecting with white voters. She trails Dole just 47-38 with that group. Usually for a Republican to win statewide here they need at least a 20 point advantage with whites to offset overwhelming African American support for Democratic candidates.

And Crisitunity offers his take:

And while a lot of this movement must have to do with the turmoil in the banking and finance industries (which is a major employer in Charlotte), bear in mind that this was taken before today’s announcement of Citi’s acquisition of NC-based Wachovia, which seems likely to drive current trends even further.

You want some gravy with that? Obama has pulled ahead of McCain in North Carolina by 47-45. It really is the economy, stupid. PPP, I believe, will now be doing weekly polls of North Carolina, so there won’t be any shortage of data from this race.

GA-Sen: Chambliss Leads by 3 in New Poll

The Mellman Group for the DSCC (9/24-28, likely voters, 8/6-10 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 34 (36)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 37 (42)

Allen Buckley (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

Fresh off the wire. A very nice spread (if accurate), but it doesn’t look like Mellman was pushing leaners heavily. This race will be a tough one, but the DSCC still seems to be interested in it.

KY-Sen: Teaser

You’ve already seen this poll and that poll, but here’s one poll of the Kentucky Senate race that you haven’t seen:

Following the news that a SurveyUSA poll and a Louisville Courier-Journal survey of the Kentucky Senate race found Sen. Mitch McConnell and challenger Bruce Lunsford locked in a tight race, a third poll – this one not released – confirms the dead heat. (emphasis added)

NJ-02, NJ-03: New Polls Show LoBiondo Way Ahead, Adler in Tight Race

Zogby International for the Press of Atlantic City and the Richard Stockton College (9/18-20, likely voters):

David Kurkowski (D): 26

Frank LoBiondo (R-inc): 62

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.5%)

First off, note that this is from Zogby International, not the ridiculous internet-based polling of Zogby Interactive. The 2nd CD is a D+4 district that supported Gore by a wide margin, but gave Bush a single-point win in 2004. While this district seems ripe for a takeover attempt at some point, LoBiondo has tirelessly worked the constituent service side of his job over the years, and he retains some significant popularity at home. Don’t count on a shocking upset here.

And now for the open seat race in NJ-03:

John Adler (D): 37

Chris Myers (R): 39

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The only other poll we’ve seen of this race, a McLaughlin & Associates internal for Myers from earlier this month, showed a similarly close (but wide open) race: 33-29 for Myers. South Jersey, and this District in particular, isn’t accustomed to sending Democrats to the House of Representatives, so perhaps these numbers are an accurate snapshot of the race as it stands today — or at least, as it stood last week.

However, the poll was taken before the DCCC kicked in with a TV buy against Myers. It’s also a question of money — Adler held a commanding $1.46 million to $155K cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June. While Myers recently was aided by a fundraiser from his political hero, President Bush, he’s still playing catchup here.

Zogby finds Obama edging McCain by 46-44 in the 3rd CD. That would be a slight improvement over the two-point Bush win here in 2004, but not nearly the 54-43 Gore romp of 2000.

FL-13: Buchanan Well Under 50% in New Poll

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters):

Christine Jennings (D): 31

Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 43

Other: 6

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±5%)

43% is a weak place to be for any incumbent, and just take a look an Vern’s fave/unfave rating: 37-42. Not good. On the other hand, Christine Jenning’s favorables aren’t exactly hot either: 32-38. You never like to see a challenger with a net negative favorable rating.

A recent Feldman Group poll showed Jennings trailing by four points, with Buchanan at the 44% mark. Popping open the hood, R2K shows that McCain is leading Obama by 51-38 in the district. Considering that Bush beat Kerry by 12% here in 2004, we’re not seeing any evidence of a blue shift in this district based on this poll.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

KY-Sen: Lunsford and McConnell Neck-and-Neck in New Poll

Mason-Dixon (9/22-25, likely voters):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 44

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Mason-Dixon is seen by some as the “gold standard” of Southern polling, so these are some fantastic numbers for Bruce Lunsford. They also closely mirror a recent SUSA poll showing McConnell leading by only three points.

The underlying environment is a treacherous one for an incumbent according to the poll: 85% of voters feel the country is headed on the wrong track — the highest this measure has ever been since 1990. McConnell’s favorable/unfavorable rating is quite low (40-31), but Lunsford isn’t fairing a whole lot better (26-29). You don’t like to see a challenger with a higher unfavorable number than a favorable number, so that makes the head-to-head top lines all the more remarkable.

This one could be a real race.

(Hat-tip to MediaCzech for flagging this one.)