Tag: Polls

Rasmussen (9/25, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 54 (56)

John Kennedy (R): 41 (39)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Landrieu delivers another kick in Kennedy’s short pants with this poll, which is always a joy to see. Kennedy is currently blitzing the airwaves with ads claiming that Landrieu is Louisiana’s “most liberal Senator in history”. Nothing seems to be sticking so far for Little John.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

UPDATE: Chad makes a good point:

For the second consecutive cycle… It appears that the most overrated GOP Senate candidate has the last name Kennedy.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters):

Charlie Brown (D): 46

Tom McClintock (R): 41

(MoE: ±5%)

Earlier in the month, Brown posted a two-point lead over carpetbagging blockhead Tom McClintock in an internal poll conducted for his campaign. Both candidates have similar favorable numbers (41% for McClintock and 44% for Brown), but McClintock is a bit more banged up, posting a 35% unfavorable rating compared to Brown’s 25%.

The poll also identifies an 18-point gender gap in the race, with women preferring Brown by a 50-36 margin, but men siding with the Conservative Icon by 46-42. Independents also side with Brown by 49-33.

Brown still faces a tough Presidential headwind in this R+11 district (Bush won here by 59-36 and 61-37 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively), but the numbers are a bit better this time around: McCain leads Obama by 51-39. Even if most of those undecideds break to McCain, this will still be an improvement for Team Blue over the last two elections.

SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Likely Republican” to Lean Republican.

Why “Lean”, and not Tossup? Well, for one, we never underestimate the ability of Republicans to rally around their own in GOP strongholds. Brown still has the Presidential headwind to deal with, and those undecideds are still a tough nut to crack. But Brown is looking as good as he’s ever looked right now.

Siena College (9/11-17, likely voters):

SD-03

Brian Foley (D): 40

Caesar Trunzo (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.9%)

SD-07

Craig Johnson (D-inc): 49

Barbara Donno (R): 25

(MoE: ±4.9%)

SD-15

Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 42

Serphin Maltese (R-inc): 42

(MoE: ±4.9%)

SD-48

Darrel Aubertine (D-inc): 51

David Renzi (R): 31

(MoE: ±4.7%)

SD-56

Richard Dollinger (D): 38

Joseph Robach (R-inc): 49

(MoE: ±4.7%)

SD-61

Joseph Mesi (D): 40

Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.6%)

The New York Senate is the last bulwark for the Republicans in New York, and Democrats have steadily chipped away at it. Republicans currently have a 31-29 edge, with 2 vacancies (one of which was the seat held by Joe Bruno, GOP senate leader since time immemorial).

New polling by Siena of six of the most hotly contested Senate seats suggests that the Dems are poised to take over the chamber in 2008. First, assume that the two vacancies are retained by the Dems and GOP respectively (SD-13 is a safe Dem district in Queens; SD-43, Bruno’s old seat, is in GOP-leaning Albany suburbs, and not a sure bet to stay red, although it wasn’t polled). That would push the vote count to 32-30 in favor of the GOP.

However, these polls see Dem Joseph Mesi picking up SD-61 in the Buffalo suburbs, held by the retiring Republican Mary Lou Rath. Net result? 31-31. Ordinarily, the tie would be broken by the Lieutenant Governor… but New York doesn’t have one right now, as the post was left vacant when David Paterson succeeded Eliot Spitzer. So then who takes over? Short answer: no one knows.

But… Joseph Addabbo is tied with incumbent Republican Serphin Maltese in SD-15, a heavily Democratic area in Queens (the same poll also asked presidential preferences in each district, and Obama leads McCain 49-31 in the 15th). Maltese also might suffer from the recent arrest of Democratic Assemblyman (but key Maltese ally, whose Assembly district covers part of the 15th) Anthony Seminerio on federal corruption charges. This could be the tiebreaker.

The remaining polls show the two Democratic freshmen elected in mid-term, Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine, cruising to re-election, while threatened GOP incumbents Caesar Trunzo and Joe Robach are holding onto decent-size leads.

The Feldman Group for Christine Jennings (9/22-23, likely voters):

Christine Jennings (D): 40

Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The last time we saw poll numbers from this race, Buchanan posted an 18-point lead (48-30) in his own internal poll. The Feldman group has a dramatically different result, and also finds that the many, many lawsuits being filed against Buchanan or his business are beginning to take a toll on the incumbent: 78% of voters say they have “heard something” about Buchanan recently, and of those voters, 43% said it made them feel less favorably towards the incumbent, while only 23% say it made them feel more favorable. Additionally, only 39% say that Buchanan deserves re-election.

If this snapshot is accurate, Jennings has a fighting chance to pull off an upset here. I’d like to see it confirmed by another poll, but I’ll take the good news for now.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters, 5/20-21):

Gary Trauner (D): 42 (44)

Cynthia Lummis (R): 42 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here’s our first look in many months at the race for Wyoming’s at large House seat, being vacated by the always-charming Barbara Cubin. The poll shows a tied game between Gary Trauner, who came very close to shocking Cubin in 2006, and former Secretary of State Cynthia Lummis. (The previous poll was taken long before Wyoming’s GOP primary, where Lummis defeated Mark Gordon, who was considered to be the less-divisive pick.)

There are two possible schools of thought on the state of this race: first, this isn’t that good, because Trauner has lost ground from last time even though now it’s confirmed he’s running against Lummis (who, personality-wise, seems to take after Cubin).

On the other hand, it may be good, since this follows in the wake of adding Sarah Palin to the ticket, who plays (or played?) uniquely well in the red states of the West and should have theoretically, via coattails, knocked Trauner out of contention. The same sample shows McCain leading Obama 57-36, still a mighty downdraft for Trauner to fight against, but an indication that Dems are running much better in the Equality State than in 2004 (where Kerry got dismantled 69-29).

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters):

Bob Conley (D): 42

Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

A few days ago I called your attention to Rasmussen’s poll of South Carolina, showing Ron Paul-lovin’ paleo-con “Democrat” Bob Conley within 9 points of Lindsey Graham, as an example of their having gone off the deep end this week.

Well, we may actually have a live one here, as R2K shows a similar 9-point margin. Looks like South Carolinians are feeling pretty tepid about Graham. Sigh… if only a real candidate had decided to jump in for the Dems. However, I have to wonder if Conley is pulling a fair number of votes from the looney-tunes right (which doesn’t like Graham for his occasional flourishes of bipartisanship and rumors about his personal life), which a more normal Dem wouldn’t. R2K has McCain up in SC by a more believable 52-39 (Rasmussen had the presidential race at 51-45).

Ruh-roh. SurveyUSA (9/24-25, likely voters):

Alice Kryzan (D): 37

Chris Lee (R): 48

Jon Powers (WF): 5

Anthony Fumerelle (IP): 3

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Fumerelle won’t be on the ballot in November — he was nominated for a judgeship and his line was given to Lee. Powers takes 5% of the vote — not an insignificant number. It’s pretty disappointing that he’s chosen to remain mum rather than endorse the Democratic nominee here.

An earlier DCCC/EMILY’s List poll showed Kryzan leading by a full 10 points, but that poll pegged the partisan breakdown of the district as 33% Dem, 32% GOP. SUSA finds something different: 46% GOP and 34% Dem. According to the the most recent statistics, Republicans have a 37,000-strong voter registration edge in the district.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (8/17-19, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 39

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 46

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Kirk’s latest internal shows him with a monster 22-point lead over Seals, and while these are older numbers, I’m more inclined to buy this picture than Kirk’s lopsided polls which have Democrats and Republicans at near-parity in the 10th.

In the Presidential race, GSG finds that Obama has a 51-36 lead over McCain. As Dan Seals continues to hammer Kirk for railing against the “Obama agenda”, more Democratic-leaning voters should return home in the coming weeks.

SurveyUSA (9/24-25, likely voters, 6/27-29 in parens):

David Boswell (D): 43 (47)

Brett Guthrie (R): 49 (44)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

After David Boswell posted leads in the last round of SUSA’s polling and in a Garin Hart Yang internal last month, Republican Brett Guthrie has pulled ahead in the latest poll. Having the airwaves to himself for over a month is a likely cause, but the DCCC didn’t do Boswell any favors after their attack ad was pulled by a local station, allowing Guthrie to crow about “dishonesty” from Democrats. Not a great start out of the gates here by the DCCC.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Martin Heinrich (9/22-23, likely voters, 6/29-7/2 in parens):

Martin Heinrich (D): 48 (47)

Darren White (R): 42 (44)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

White and Heinrich have been exchanging blows in the press and in ads recently, and it appears that Heinrich is getting the upper hand. A SurveyUSA poll from a few weeks ago pegged the race at 51-46 for Heinrich, so these numbers look pretty trustworthy.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.