Tag: Polls

Suffolk University (9/21-24, likely voters):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 41

John Sununu (R-inc): 40

Ken Blevens (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

We’re getting a deluge of New Hampshire polls now, and we’re getting a wide range of results. Suffolk seems to fall in the ‘we have a real race on our hands’ camp. Throw this on the pile with all the other polls, and it does look like there’s a general tightening trend.

The same sample shows Obama beating McCain 46-45, and governor John Lynch beating Joe Kenney 61 to a pitiable 16.

Anzalone-Liszt for Dina Titus (9/21-24, likely voters, 7/23-28 in parens):

Dina Titus (D): 46 (43)

Jon Porter (R-inc): 37 (39)

Other: 6 (10)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

How much trouble is Jon Porter in? Well, just look at the favorable/unfavorable numbers. Titus posts a 50-37 popularity score, while Porter is less loved at 44-41 — his favorables down four and unfavorables up seven since July.

Back in June, Mason-Dixon released a poll showing Porter leading by a mere three points, but perhaps the most important number is this one: since 2006, Democrats have expanded their voter registration lead in Nevada’s 3rd CD from 2,900 voters to 25,445 in August.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: Porter’s own internal (Public Opinion Strategies, 9/23-24) shows him leading Titus by 41-39. Weak.

InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position for the DeSoto Appeal (9/24, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4%)

It’s a one-day sample, so take that for what it’s worth, but it’s in-line with a recent R2K poll that showed the exact same numbers. In that poll, Musgrove was winning African-American voters by 75-7 and losing among white voters by 23-73. InsiderAdvantage paints a somewhat different picture, with Musgrove and Wicker splitting the black vote by 77-20. The article doesn’t share the breakdown of the white vote, but it would have to be higher than 23% for Musgrove in order for the top lines to balance out.

If Wicker earns 20% of the black vote in November, it’s game over for Musgrove (barring some unexpected over-performance among whites), but that would be a truly remarkable performance for Wicker — and I don’t think he’s there yet. (Although perhaps the lack of party ID on the ballot could cut both ways.)

This one remains close (and the DSCC continues to pump in a lot of ads), but it’s hard not to give Wicker a slight edge for now.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor (9/22-24, likely voters):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50

John Sununu (R-inc): 41

Ken Blevens (L): 2

(MoE: ±4%)

There was some heartburn recently over a funky Rasmussen poll showing Sununu lunging ahead by seven points. Between this poll and yesterday’s UNH’s Granite State Poll that found Shaheen ahead by four points, I think it’s safe to call “outlier” on Rasmussen’s latest.

Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor (9/22-24, likely voters):

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 44

Jeb Bradley (R): 43

(MoE: ±6%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 47

Jennifer Horn (R): 34

(MoE: ±6%)

UNH found Bradley leading by 45-42, and Hodes up by 38-26. I trust R2K more than the Granite State Poll, but both pollsters are finding similar spreads here — especially when you factor in the hefty 6% MoE. While I think we can dismiss a GOP internal showing Hodes leading by only 4 points as bunk, it certainly seems that Shea-Porter is in for a tough fight.

Bonus finding: R2K finds that Obama is leading McCain by a 48-44 margin statewide.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 45

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Check out the crosstabs: Merkley is romping among Democrats by a 79-6 margin. Clearly, El Gordo’s “bipartisan” campaign ads haven’t swayed too many Dems — or even Independents, who give Merkley a 43-41 lead. Both candidates don’t have especially high favorables (43-40 for Merkley, and 41-45 for Smith), but Obama’s top of the ticket strength seems to be trickling down. He leads John McSleepy by 53-39.

Earlier in the day, a SUSA poll showed Merkley with a two-point advantage.

Rasmussen (9/23, likely voters, 9/18 in parentheses)

Kay Hagan (D): 48 (51)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I try not to single out particular pollsters for ridicule, but Rasmussen has had one mixed-up crazy week. Nevertheless, their newest poll of the North Carolina Senate race is very much in line with their poll last week of the same race, and other pollsters as well: Hagan is showing a small but sustained lead. Somewhat miraculously, both candidates have favorable ratings over 50%: Dole at 52% and Hagan at 51%.

This is the same sample that gave Obama a 49-47 lead. Obama’s organizing and advertising push in North Carolina seems to be paying off not just for him (as NC is starting to move into undeniable swing-state territory) but downticket as well.

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (9/17-21, likely voters)

Mark Begich (D): 47

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 47

Don Young (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Fairleigh Dickinson has decided to expand its operations from New Jersey… to Alaska? Well, at any rate, it’s at an opportune time, as they join the pack of pollsters seeing tightening races in Alaska in the post-Palin environment (and as the initial shock of Uncle Ted’s indictment fades). In fact, these numbers quite closely resemble those announced by Ivan Moore earlier today (Begich up 48-46, Berkowitz up 49-44).

Ominously for the incumbents, Stevens pulls down only 67% support from Republicans, and Young is supported by only 50% of Republicans. Both races are also built on glaring gender gaps: for instance, Young is up by 10 among men, while Berkowitz is up by 22 among women.

Myers Research & Strategic Services for Mark Schauer (9/23-24, likely voters, 5/8-15 in parens):

Mark Schauer (D): 42 (37)

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 36 (40)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Schauer posts another lead over Walberg, whose job approval rating (34-46) is still in the dumps. Looks like the money spent by Patriot Majority and the DCCC here has had some effect.

The full polling memo is available below the fold. SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48 (46)

John Sununu (R-inc): 44 (42)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

The University of New Hampshire is back with new polls, and they show a continuation of Shaheen’s four-point lead from July. The July poll was considered a bit out-of-whack at the time, but this week’s poll seems more in line with overall polling trends: still a consistent Shaheen lead (with the exception of that recent wacky Rasmussen poll), but now within the margin of error instead of out in double-digit land. Encouragingly, Sununu’s favorables are dropping, down to 44% from over 50 in July. The same sample gives McCain a 47-45 lead.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 42 (40)

Jeb Bradley (R): 45 (46)

Undecided 12 (14)

(MoE: ±6.2%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 38 (43)

Jennifer Horn (R): 26 (23)

Undecided 33 (32)

(MoE: ±6.0%)

UNH also takes a look at the two Congressional races in New Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter continues to trail Jeb Bradley (now by 3) in the rematch of their 2006 race in NH-01. The gap has closed a bit from last time, probably as Jeb Bradley emerges from an acrimonious primary covered in mud. Shea-Porter has only a 44% favorable rating (up significantly from the previous sample), but Bradley is even worse at 36% favorable, down from nearly 50 last time, which indicates that his primary battle with John Stephen may have mortally wounded him. Shea-Porter maintains a financial edge and can count on DCCC help, but this still looks to be a close race come November.

The other freshman representative, Paul Hodes, is in much better shape in the more Dem-leaning NH-02, giving Hodes the tie-breaker in the battle of dueling internals we saw earlier this week. Hodes is up by 12, although note the huge number of undecideds in this race (which has only grown since the GOP primary was resolved).

Playing “spot the methodological weaknesses in the UNH poll” has become a favorite netroots pastime, and there are a few things to point out: each of the Congressional samples is only half of the statewide sample, leaving them with sample sizes of only 252 and 271, and enormous 6% MoEs. In addition, these samples seem especially heavy on the Republicans (although New Hampshire may be one state where old school New England Republicans retain their registration even as they increasingly vote Democratic as the national GOP devolves into Theocon Central). This is especially glaring in the 2nd District, where the sample includes 60 Democrats and 91 Republicans (50% more).

Bennett, Petts, & Normington for Glenn Nye (9/21-22, likely voters, 5/6-8 in parens):

Glenn Nye (D): 40 (32)

Thelma Drake (R-inc): 45 (48)

Undecided: 15 (20)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Very nice trend for Glenn Nye the candidate guy. After airing some bio ads, Nye’s name recognition has shot up to 49% — more than five times higher than it was in May, but also showing some major room to grow.

Drake’s been firing blanks at Nye in recent days over a D.C. residence that he maintained with his brother while serving as a foreign service officer in Iraq. In Drake’s view, Nye’s been “gaming” the D.C. tax system for a discount. The Virginian-Pilot tears Drake to shreds for this attack:

Here’s the problem with that charge: Nye owns the house with his brother, who has lived there except while the State Department employed him in Iraq to work on reconstruction and job creation. Nye himself was also in Baghdad – creating a jobs program for Iraqis – during the period that Drake’s campaign argues he was cheating the D.C. government.

In other words, Drake is criticizing the Nye brothers for claiming as a primary residence the house they left behind while serving their country in a war zone. What the Nyes did will sound very familiar to the heavily military voters of the 2nd District.

It’s no wonder that Drake has a net negative job rating (45-47) and that her favorables are only at 42%.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican. The full polling memo is available below the fold.