Tag: Polls

Ivan Moore Research (9/20-22, likely voters, 8/30-9/2 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (49)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (46)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

And here’s the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49 (54)

Don Young (R-inc): 44 (37)

In other words: these races are far from over. Ivan Moore offers some candid thoughts on why neither Begich or Berkowitz have been able to put their races away:

My thinking is that Begich stayed too long on his cutesy advertising message: He started off in the car wash talking about minimum wage and congressional pay increases, then segued to a charming No Child Left Behind ad featuring his son Jacob. Nice ads, both of them, but the feel is wrong. They don’t set him up as being strong, decisive and dominant, they don’t give him weight and gravitas, they don’t establish him in effective contrast to Stevens, and I think therein lies the fall in numbers. All this while Ted’s growling about how he’s never going to get taken alive.

Begich needs something strong, something that portrays him as someone who can go to DC and kick ass. He needs to rely less on attack ads from the DSCC, which I don’t think are doing him any good, and more on convincing people that he’s got the balls to do this job.

I’m inclined to agree with his note on the DSCC’s ads being counter-productive in this race. Look, you won’t find a bigger booster of the party committees in the blogosphere than us, but the DSCC injecting itself into this contest allows Ted Stevens to frame the race around “enemies of Alaska” trying to “take him down”. This stuff does not play well in Alaska. Just ask the Club For Growth, who learned their lesson the hard way.

And here’s Moore on Berkowitz:

Berkowitz, on the other hand, has a problem. In the last two months, his positive hasn’t moved anywhere and his negative’s gone up nearly ten points. That despite a bunch of pre-primary advertising and a solid win in the primary. He needs to catch fire and he’s not going about it the right way to make it happen. So far, we’ve seen him doing the walking and talking thing on his ads, and having a little love-in on his deck with people hanging on his every word. But for goodness sakes, he’s running against Don Young! Where’s the feistiness, where’s the strength, where’s the toughness, where’s the courage that he had in Juneau to stand up to the powerbrokers and the lobbyists and the corruption? It hasn’t appeared yet, and as a result, the race has narrowed to just five points.

Berkowitz and Begich both have the same problem. Both these races set up perceptually as contests between a couple of intellectual, wishy-washy, weak-kneed, liberal Ds (and that’s not me talking, I’m channeling voter thoughts out there) and a couple of tough, grizzled, possibly corrupt but otherwise experienced old warhorses who know how to get the job done. It’s incumbent on the Ds to show that the perception of them is false, and that they can stand toe-to-toe with Stevens and Young. But time is running out.

Food for thought.

UPDATE: Sarah Palin just declined to endorse Ted Stevens. That can’t help.

The Kitchens Group for Jim Harlan (9/18-21, likely voters, June in parens):

Jim Harlan (D): 31 (15)

Steve Scalise (R-inc): 42 (68)

Undecided: 26 (17)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

In the diaries, Sean Fitzpatrick alerted us to this poll, and we’ve dug up the numbers for all to see.

If there was ever a district in Louisiana that screams “off limits” to Democrats, it’s this one. Its voters defeated John Kerry by 43 points in 2004, and even the Goreacle was stomped here by 36 points four years earlier. A heavily white New Orleans-area district, Democrat Gilda Reed only scored 22.5% of the vote here in the special election to replace Bobby Jinal this May.

But Democrat Jim Harlan, a successful businessman and former D.C. policy whiz in his own right, is giving this one a go, and he’s bringing his own considerable personal resources to bear.

Knocking off Scalise may seem hopeless, but if he can pin the man down and drain some of the GOP’s resources, he’ll at least make the lives of Don Cazayoux, Paul Carmouche, and Don Cravins, Jr. easier.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

SurveyUSA (9/22-23, likely voters):

Jack Markell (D): 64

Bill Lee (R): 29

Mike Protack (IPOD): 3

(MoE: ±3.6%)

“IPOD” stands for Independent Party of Delaware, and as this poll suggests: don’t take them to be much of a factor here. In fact, Protack himself withdrew from the race last week. Markell has this one locked. Move along, folks.

Bonus findings: It’s a Democratic blood bath at all levels in Delaware. Biden leads his Senate race by 64-32, and Obama leads McDodge by 57-37.

SurveyUSA (9/22-23, likely voters, 10/26-29/2007 in parens):

Tom Allen (D): 39 (38)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 55 (55)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

We’ve all been waiting for something… anything… to happen in this race, and all we’re seeing is a whopping 1-point Allen bounce over the past 10 months. Hard to feel bubbly about this one.

UPDATE: Actually, wait a sec. As andgarden points out in the comments, we’re seeing a classically messed-up youth sample in the crosstabs. Among 18-34 year-olds, Collins has a massive 64%-18% lead over Allen. Again, we’re seeing another SUSA poll with a wildly overstated GOP youth vote. (Just check out the Presidential numbers, where John McNap has a 49-37 lead over Barack Obama among this age bracket, compared to 49-44 for Obama overall.) SUSA really needs to look into this issue.

Anzalone-Liszt for Paul Hodes (9/14-18, likely voters):

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 50

Jennifer Horn (R): 32

Chester Lapointe (L): 4

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Horn, a disingenuous, unaccomplished radio host, recently released an internal poll of her own showing her trailing Hodes by a mere 43-39 margin. Yes, we’re looking at the results of two partisan pollsters, but I’ll take an Anzalone survey over a cheapo Public Opinion Strategies poll any day of the week.

Here are some bonus numbers: Jeanne Shaheen holds a 55-38 lead over John Sununu in the district, and Obama is leading by 52-39.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: And yeah, I saw that new Rasmussen poll showing Shaheen trailing Sununu by a whopping seven-point margin. This one has “funky outlier” written all over it.

SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

I’ll file Washington’s governor’s race in the “good news” column: after a period in the post-GOP convention afterglow when Dino Rossi nosed ahead of Chris Gregoire (or shot ahead by 6, in the case of that sketchy Rasmussen poll), we may be returning the old stasis, with a tiny edge for Gregoire, who remains deeply dependent on Obama coattails to get her over the finish line. In the same sample, Obama leads 54-43, again, much more plausible than his +2 in the last Rasmussen. (H/t mikeel.)

UPDATE: Here’s an amusing little aside. The Washington Democratic Party is suing Secretary of State Sam Reed (a Republican, but a highly ethical one) to force him to change Rossi’s self-selected ballot line (from “GOP Party” to “Republican”). I don’t think the Dems have a legal leg to stand on, but it makes sense for them to try, in wake of last week’s Elway poll giving Gregoire a 4-point lead when Rossi is identified as “prefers GOP Party” and a 10-point lead when he’s identified as “Republican.”

PPP (9/17-19, likely voters, 9/9 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 44 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (40)

Michael Munger (L): 6 (6)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Civitas (R) (9/17-20, registered voters, 9/6-10 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (40)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (39)

Michael Munger: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

I’ll file North Carolina under “mixed bag,” as PPP gives Perdue another small edge (this is the same sample that showed Obama and McCain tied at 46 and Hagan up by 5). Civitas gives McCrory a two-point edge, up from a one-point deficit before (this sample showed Obama/McCain tied at 45 and Dole up by 2). This one clearly will go down to the wire.

Research 2000 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch (9/15-18, likely voters, 7/7-10 in parentheses):

Jay Nixon (D): 50 (52)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 43 (35)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I’ll file this under “bad news,” but this is the kind of bad news that I’ll gladly take. Jay Nixon still leads Kenny Hulshof by a comfortable margin in the race for the open governor’s seat in Missouri, except Research 2000 (working for the St. Louis newspaper rather than Daily Kos on this one) shows that Hulshof has closed within high single digits instead of the showy double-digit margins Nixon has mostly been posting. Rasmussen gave Nixon a 15-point spread last week, so there’s not much cause for alarm, though. (McCain leads in this sample, 49-45.)

The campaigns of Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Marty Ozinga both released new internal polls today, and they agree on one key point: Halvorson is ahead.

Public Opinion Strategies for Marty Ozinga (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 38 (40)

Marty Ozinga (R): 36 (33)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Anzalone-Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (9/14-16, likely voters, May in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 43 (43)

Marty Ozinga (R): 35 (32)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

If there is a point of concern, it’s that Halvorson hasn’t built on her lead despite a whopping $641,000 spent on her behalf and against Ozinga by the DCCC and EMILY’s List in the past couple of months. Both candidates have their own special kind of baggage (Halvorson for the Blagojevich association, Ozinga for his extremely shady business practices and various tax liens), so this could end up being a matter of which candidate emerges less banged-up at the end of the day.

Ozinga’s poll finds that McCain holds a 44-43% lead in IL-11 — that might at first glance seem a bit slanted given Obama’s home state advantage, but keep in mind that Bush beat John Kerry by a 53-46 margin here in 2004.

Oh, and there’s this nugget from NRCC Chair Tom Cole:

Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Monday the group will contribute the maximum $84,000 in direct or indirect aid allowable by law to Ozinga in the coming weeks.

Cole said the race for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller, R-Morris, is among at least 50 and maybe 60 seats the NRCC will seek to influence in the stretch run. He said the committee had not moved to help Ozinga and other candidates so far due to limited funds.

“This is a ‘don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes,’ ” strategy, Cole said.

It’s sort of fitting that Cole would use a battle cry from the American Revolutionary War, when the range of muskets was severely limited, as the NRCC’s capabilities have certainly regressed by a few decades over the past year and a half.

Also amusing is Cole’s note that the NRCC will influence “at least 50 and maybe 60 seats” this fall. With what? Spitballs? Well, I guess the NRCC can influence a race by not spending any money on it…

UPDATE: Full Anzalone-Liszt polling memo below the fold.

We’re up to our neck in new polls today — in other words, we’re now in horse race junkie heaven.

First, Colorado. Public Policy Polling (9/20-21, likely voters, 8/5-7 in parens):

Mark Udall (D): 48 (47)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (41)

Undecided: 12 (12)

(MoE: ±3%)

And Quinnipiac (9/14-21, likely voters, 7/14-22):

Mark Udall (D): 48 (44)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (44)

Undecided: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Two quality polls from quality pollsters showing great results for Mark Udall. Sooner or later, Dick Wadhams & Co. will have to look down and realize that they’ve run off a cliff.

Bonus findings: Quinnipiac shows Obama leading McCain by 49-45 in Colorado, and PPP pegs Obama’s lead at a dramatic 51-44.

MN-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/14-21, likely voters, 7/14-22 in parens):

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 49 (53)

Al Franken (D): 42 (38)

Other: 3 (2)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Well, the trend line is positive, so at least we have that much, but I wish that Quinnipiac included Dean Barkley in the match-up. We’ve already seen Barkley taking a significant share of the vote in other polls, so he’s the big X-factor here.

Bonus finding: Qunnipiac shows Obama edging McCain by 47-45 in Minnesota.

Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies for the DCCC and EMILY’s List (9/15-17, likely voters):

Alice Kryzan (D): 39

Chris Lee (R): 29

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Evidently, leaners weren’t pushed off the fence in this poll, so one wonders what the picture would look like had that been done, but these are still some promising numbers for Alice Kryzan.

The full polling memo is available below the fold. Check out Lee’s name ID: 30%. No wonder the undecideds are so high.

SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 46 (40)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 49 (52)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Well, that’s an amazingly nice spread if true, but two other recent polls show this race more in the 13 to 17-point range (although one of them is a Mitchie internal). I’d have to see this trend confirmed in another poll to start getting my hopes up, but I’m glad that we have Lunsford to keep on this race like a bloodhound.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

UPDATE: The crosstabs for this one are now available. As Taegan Goddard might say, here’s your “key finding”:

6 in 10 voters tell SurveyUSA they are focused on the economy, ahead of all other issues. Among voters focused on the economy, McConnell went from a 6-point lead 6 weeks ago, to a 9-point deficit today, a 15-point swing to the Democrat.

And:

To put these numbers into context, it is critical to note that the identical survey that polled Kentucky voters on the US Senate race also asked about the Presidential contest. The same respondents rethinking McConnell are sticking with John McCain. McCain led by 18 points 6 weeks ago, leads by 19 points today.