Tag: Polls

Harstad Strategic Research for Walt Minnick (9/9-11, likely voters):

Walt Minnick (D): 43

Bill Sali (R-inc): 38

(MoE: ±4.9%)

These numbers paint a dramatically different picture of the race than a recent Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos that showed Sali leading by 46-35. In that survey, Minnick had suspiciously high unfavorable numbers (41% favorable, 40% unfavorable), which is hard to explain given that Minnick has been airing nothing but unanswered positive bio ads for the past two months. In Minnick’s poll, his favorables are at 39% and his unfavorables are at 12% — I find this spread much more believable than R2K’s poll.

The poll has some more good news: Bill Sali’s favorables are pretty low (36-37) and his job approval is even worse (28-52). The cherry on top: only 22% of voters say that they’re going vote to re-elect Sali, while 26% say they’ll consider someone else, and 33% are definitely voting for someone else. A good base of anti-Sali and persuadable voters there.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

On the heels of recent polls by PPP and Rasmussen showing Democrat Kay Hagan leading Elizabeth Dole by mid-single digits, Civitas releases a new survey of their own (9/17-20, likely voters, 8/14-17 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 41 (41)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 43 (44)

Christopher Cole (L): 5 (4)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

True, Civitas is a Republican group, but their numbers have been mostly in-line with what other reputable pollsters have told us about North Carolina this year, and I have no reason to doubt them — just like I have no reason to doubt Public Policy Polling despite their Democratic sympathies. In any case, Dole is in serious trouble.

Bonus finding: Civitas finds that the Presidential race is tied at 45-45 in North Carolina. Very nice.

Public Policy Polling (9/17-19, likely voters):

Tom Udall (D): 57

Steve Pearce (R): 37

(MoE: ±3%)

Pearce better get out of the way, because the Udall Express is barreling down Route 66 at a blazing speed. No wonder the NRSC isn’t wasting a dime here.

Bonus finding: In the Presidential race, Obama enjoys a 53-42 lead over McCain. It looks like Sarah Palin doesn’t play well in New Mexico, as only 38% of voters say her selection makes them more likely to vote for McCain, while 46% say the opposite. This state is looking good.

Anzalone Liszt for Don Cazayoux (9/17-21, likely voters, July in parens):

Don Cazayoux (D-inc): 48 (43)

Bill Cassidy (R): 32 (36)

Michael Jackson (I): 9 (13)

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Those are some nice starting numbers for Cazayoux. Hopefully he can minimize Jackson’s impact, but it looks like he’s beginning the campaign with some breathing room.

We’ll post the full polling memo when we get it — which should be very soon. Oh, and while we’re at it, here’s Don Cazayoux’s latest ad.

UPDATE: Full polling memo below the fold, and it contains some more good news. Constituents are giving Cazayoux solid ratings for his work during Hurricane Gustav and its aftermath.

Rasmussen (9/18, likely voters):

Bob Conley (D): 41

Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Bob Conley, the Democratic candidate for Senate in South Carolina against Lindsey Graham, is sort of the flip side of Bob Kelleher, the Republican Senate candidate in Montana: a quaint eccentric with no institutional support and who’s way out of step with his ostensible party. Conley was a member of the Horry County Republican Committee before seeking the Democratic nomination. He voted for Ron Paul in the primaries, and, consistent with that, is running a paleo-con “America First” campaign that, according to his own campaign website, is “well to [Graham’s] right.” (Check out the precision of his flap-top; he makes Jon Tester look like Sideshow Bob.)

Rasmussen just polled this race for the first time, and to probably everyone’s surprise, it shows Conley within 9 points of Graham, who’s right at the 50% mark. I’m not sure whether this odd result reflects more poorly on Rasmussen (who also found an edge of only 51 McCain-46 Obama from the same sample… which may be fishy, or may be a leading indicator of the blue wave seeping down from Virginia into the Carolinas) or on Graham, who’s never had much luck at wooing social conservatives. Don’t look for the parties to get involved in this one, though, even if further polling continues to bear out these numbers.

Rasmussen (9/18, likely voters, 8/13 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 47 (46)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 48 (49)

Dean Barkley (I): 3 (-)

(MoE: ±4%)

Coleman leads by a single point, which is not out of line with other recent polls showing Franken getting his groove back. What is out of line is Rasmussen pegging Dean Barkley at 3% of the vote. The last three polls of this race had Barkley gobbling up anywhere between 8-14% of the vote. While I don’t think that he’s going to take an exceptionally large share of the vote, I have to believe that in an exceptionally nasty race, he’s going to attract more than 3% in November.

Still, it’s good news for Franken, who has been on the receiving end of a series of attack ads recently that portray him as a mentally unhinged rageaholic. Perhaps the voters of Minnesota aren’t entirely turned off by someone who is steamed with the last eight years.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 52-44 in the state.

Rasmussen (9/17, likely voters, 7/17 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 51 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (54)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Hagan and the DSCC are cutting through Dole’s numbers like a hot knife through butter. Dole’s favorables have plunged from 61-34 in July to 50-44 this month.

These numbers are roughly in line with a recent PPP poll which showed Hagan leading by five points. Great news, all around.

Bonus finding: Rasmussen also finds that McCain leads Obama by 50-47 in the state. Hoo-ah!

(H/T: LanceS)

The Feldman Group for Jim Himes (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):

Jim Himes (D): 45 (39)

Chrissy Shays (R-inc): 45 (51)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Himes has been hammering Chris Shays in recent weeks over financial issues and his boneheaded insistence that “our economy is fundamentally strong”, and it looks like his strategy has been paying off. Only 36% of voters say that Shays deserves re-election, while 46% say that it’s time for someone new. That’s bad news for Shays.

Also ominous for the Shayster is Obama’s popularity in the district: he crushes McCain by a 56-33 margin.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Public Policy Polling (9/17-19, likely voters, 9/9 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 46 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 41 (42)

Christopher Cole (L): 6 (6)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±3%)

Hoo-ah! Those are some damn good numbers for Kay Hagan. What’s driving her success? Well, you could say: It’s the economy, stupid.

58% of voters name the “Economy and Jobs” as their most important issue this year, and incumbency is poison to them: Hagan leads by 57-30 among this group. Tom Jensen has more:

She’s also doing well with North Carolina’s fastest growing group of voters: suburbanites. They now represent a plurality of the state’s voters, and Hagan is the most popular with them of any of the candidates for President, Governor, and Senate. She leads 53-36 with that emerging power broker.

Also contributing to Hagan’s strength is her steady improvement among African-American voters (a group that Dole performed well with in 2002… for a Republican); Hagan now leads by 79-11 among these voters. That’s up from 52-28 in July.

I like this race more and more everyday.

SSP currently rates NC-Sen as a Tossup.

SurveyUSA (9/17-18, likely voters, 7/30-31 in parens):

Kay Barnes (D): 42 (44)

Sam Graves (R-inc): 51 (48)

Dave Browning (L): 4 (-)

Undecided: 4 (2)

(MoE: ±4%)

Graves is back on top with a decent lead over former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes. Interestingly, this poll offers a bit of a course correction in its sample of young voters; in July, SUSA showed Graves with a monster 52-37 lead among 18-34 year-olds (a recurring issue in many SUSA polls we’ve seen this year), but now finds Barnes ahead in that age bracket by 47-40. However, the new poll also finds Barnes backsliding among 35-64 year-olds.

There’s no question that Graves is a gay-baiting (and I’d even say race-baiting, based on this ad) neanderthal who deserves to lose, but he’s already smacking his chops over his next hit on Barnes: she was a (gasp!) sexuality consultant in the 1970s!

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.