Tag: Polls

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/17-18, likely voters):

Walt Minnick (D): 35

Bill Sali (R-inc): 46

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±5%)

Sali is under 50%, so he’s definitely in the danger zone, but this will be an uphill race for Walt Minnick. Most troubling is Minnick’s favorability rating: 41-40. Those are some inexplicably high negatives for a challenger in a race that hasn’t really heated up yet. Neither Sali nor the NRCC have gone up with negative ads against Minnick, while Minnick has been airing positive bio ads for quite some time. I’m at a loss to explain why nearly as many people view him unfavorably as they do favorably.

Up the ticket, McCain is beating Obama by a 59-32 margin, not an especially dramatic improvement for Team Blue over Kerry’s 69-30 loss here in 2004.

UPDATE: The Minnick campaign releases a statement about this poll to SSP (via email):

Our internal polling has been consistently and dramatically different from the numbers released today. We are confident going forward to Election Day.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Update: The Great Orange Satan also polled the state’s Senate race (9/16-17, likely voters, 7/28-30 in parens):

Larry LaRocco (D): 33 (32)

Jim Risch (R): 56 (42)

Rex Rammell (I): 3 (5)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 5 (17)

(MoE: ±4%)

The undecideds have come off the fence — and they’ve landed on exactly the side you’d expect in this crimson red state. Tough breaks, but it’s Idaho.

Rasmussen (9/17, likely voters, 8/12 in parens):

Tom Allen (D): 42 (40)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 55 (55)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

We’ve all been waiting for something… anything… to happen here, but Allen has not been able to land many direct hits so far. Will the bomb ever drop?

And how are things going in Oklahoma? Rasmussen (9/11, likely voters, no trend lines):

Andrew Rice (D): 39

Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 55

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That seems about right, but I understand that there may be another poll of this race by a different outlet released soon.

And finally, Kentucky: Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/15-17, likely voters, 7/28-30 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 37 (38)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50 (49)

(MoE: ±4%)

No real movement, but Kos sees a glimmer of hope in that 16% of Democrats are undecided.

Elon University (9/15-16, residents):

Kay Hagan (D): 35

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 35

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Bev Perdue (D): 35

Pat McCrory (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

First off, this is a strange poll, from a pollster I’ve never heard of before: a poll of North Carolina residents, with no regard to voting likelihood or registration, with a 4.9% MoE, and, judging by the very low numbers, little interest in pushing leaners. (UPDATE: Nor does the poll even give the names of candidates, only asking whether respondents are voting Democratic or Republican in each race!)

On the other hand, the numbers seem quite consistent with what we’ve seen recently: a tied race in the Senate, and a governor’s race moving in the last month from a slight Dem lean to a slight GOP lean. McCain leads Obama 41-35, also plausible.

Strategic Vision (R) (9/14-16, likely voters, 7/25-27 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 46 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (45)

(MoE: ±3%)

Another poll of the Washington gubernatorial race, although from rather suspicious Republican polling firm Strategic Vision, confirms the movement in the last month of this race from lean Dem status to a tied, if ever-so-slightly-leaning-GOP, game. Gregoire, after ceding the airwaves for a while, appears to be renewing her ad efforts this week, but news of a $3.2 billion state budget deficit for the next biennium isn’t likely to play out in her favor.

Obama leads McCain 47-42 in Washington in the same poll, consistent with most other polling as well.  

Selzer & Co for the Indianapolis Star (9/14-16, likely voters, 4/20-23 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 42 (43)

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46 (44)

(MoE: ±4%)

Hot diggity dog! A close race? Could it really be?

Well, not if you ask Rasmussen (9/17-18, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 40

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 56

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Yeah, not so much.

Interestingly, both polls show an incredibly tight Presidential race: Selzer has Obama up 47-44, while Rasmussen has McCain leading 49-47. Is it time for John McCain to start taking the voters of Indiana seriously instead of giving them a perpetual brush off?

UPDATE: Mitchie D has his own internal (9/11-16, likely voters): 52-31.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/9-12, likely voters):

Andy Harris (R): 36

Frank Kratovil (D): 36

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4.9%)

When we last checked into this race, Andy Harris posted a 44-28 lead in his own poll from July, and Kratovil was trailing by 43-34 in an internal poll of his own from April.

It looks like that endorsement from sitting GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest is beginning to pay off:

The economy, access to affordable health care and cutting taxes are the three top issues according to Maryland voters. And when asked whether Congressman Gilchrest’s endorsement makes respondents more or less likely to vote for Frank Kratovil, one in four independent voters and one in three voters over the age of 60 said Gilchrest’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Frank Kratovil.

Grove Insight for EMILY’s List (9/8-10, likely voters):

Betsy Markey (D): 47

Marilyn Musgrave (R-inc): 38

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is the third poll we’ve seen showing Musgrave behind; an internal Markey poll from May had Musgrave trailing by seven, and a recent SurveyUSA poll confirmed that spread. In fact, the only poll we’ve seen of this race with Musgrave ahead was an internal poll conducted for her campaign in March that pegged her lead at five points.

One thing worth noting about the poll, though: It was conducted before a recent kerfluffle over highly charged ads by Musgrave alleging ethics violations by Markey during her time spent as an aide to Sen. Ken Salazar. There’s also this:

However, the partisan edge among self-identified Republicans in the poll is smaller than the party’s advantage in voter registration numbers and historic turnout trends, suggesting GOP voters might be under-represented in the poll. The Republican identification edge over Democrats was 9 points in the poll, compared to 13 points in current registration numbers in the 4th Congressional District and 17 points in the 2004 and 2006 election turnout numbers.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Research 2000 for The Great Orange Satan (9/15-17, likely voters, 7/14-16 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 50 (47)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 44 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

I never underestimate the ability of Republicans to rally around their own — especially in Alaska — but things are still looking good for Begich. How about the House race?

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 53 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 39 (40)

(MoE: ±4%)

Looking even better. Kos also tested Berkowitz against Sean Parnell, and found that Berko held a 48-43 lead — a sharp contrast with other recent polls that indicated that Parnell would have an edge in a general election match-up.

But still, I want to extend a warm thank you to Sean Parnell and the Club for Growth for gingerly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. A job well done, you nuts.

Bonus finding: In the Presidential race, McCain has a 55-38 lead over Obama.

Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell won’t be seeking a recount in his primary challenge against Don Young:

“If I thought there was anything wrong, inappropriate or unprofessional about the way this election tally was conducted, I would not only call for a recount, I would demand one. But that is not the case here,” Parnell stated. “While a recount could change the outcome of this exceedingly close election – normal human error being what it is – such a result is unlikely. As such, I do not believe it justifies an expenditure of taxpayer funds.”

Now, other parties can petition the state to push for a recount, so that may still happen. But it won’t be done with Parnell’s blessing.

Parnell and the Club For Growth really let this one slip through their fingers. As Stuart Rothenberg might say (but won’t), they should be ashamed of themselves. Young now is facing the fight of his life against former Democratic state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz.

I’ve heard that we might see a new poll of this race relatively soon, so stay tuned.

SurveyUSA (9/14-16, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 36

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53

Allen Buckley (L): 8

(MoE: ±3.8%)

And here’s Rasmussen (9/16, likely voters, 8/14 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 43 (44)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)

Allen Buckley (L): 8

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Pick your poison. Here’s one glaring discrepancy between the polls: SurveyUSA finds that the kids love them some Chambliss, with Saxby leading Martin by 51-36 among 18-34 year-olds, while Rasmussen says that 18-29 year-olds are giving Martin a monster 67-30 lead.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Update: Saxby’s own poll gives him a 52-33 lead.