Tag: Polls

The Portland-based Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall (9/11-14, registered voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 39

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42

Dave Brownlow (C): 4

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here is the money shot:

More than half of Oregon voters viewed Smith favorably as recently as a year ago, but now that’s down to one-third of the voters, less than those who view him unfavorably. Only 53 percent of Republicans view him favorably – lower than President Bush’s 65 percent approval rating among Oregon Republicans.

A Rasmussen poll released yesterday gave Smith a 1-point lead, and a Merkley internal poll from last week showed the incumbent trailing by three points.

Things are just not looking up for El Gordo.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE by Crisitunity: I didn’t immediately grasp the magnitude when seeing “one-third” written out, so remember: Smith’s overall favorable rating is 33%. Let that sink in for a while: 33%. (Also worth noting, via the Oregonian‘s story on this poll: the original numbers released for the poll, which didn’t account for pushing leaners, were Smith up by only 1: 37-36.)

If there was any confusion about the pollster, Tim Hibbitts (who’s little known outside Oregon, but is considered the gold standard within the state), this is an independent poll commissioned by the local Fox TV affiliate, not an internal.

Hamilton Campaigns for Suzanne Kosmas (9/11-14, likely voters, May in parens):

Suzanne Kosmas (D): 42 (37)

Tom Feeney (R-inc): 43 (51)

Gaurav Bhola (I): 1 (-)

Undecided: 14 (12)

Kosmas has been hitting the airwaves hard in recent weeks for her race against Abramoff associate Tom Feeney, and it looks like it’s beginning to pay off.

Full polling memo under the fold.

SurveyUSA (9/14-16, likely voters, 5/30-6/1 in parens):

Tom Udall (D): 56 (60)

Steve Pearce (R): 41 (35)

We’ll post the full crosstabs when SUSA releases them, but this is looking good. Udall leads Pearce by a whopping 20 points among women voters, and has a 2-to-1 lead among independents. The findings closely mirror a DSCC internal poll released today showing Udall leading by 16 points. (Update: Crosstabs are available here.)

Even more good news for Democrats: Obama leads McCain in New Mexico by 52-44 according to the same round of polling.

Myers Research and Grove Insight for the DSCC (dates unknown, likely voters):

Tom Udall (D): 57

Steve Pearce (R): 41

(MoE: ±4%)

Meanwhile, NRSC Chair John Ensign says that Republicans could stay at 49 seats after November, which, under any plausible scenario, would have to include a Steve Pearce victory.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

Franklin & Marshall College Poll (9/9-14, registered voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 35

Lou Barletta (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Now, there’s not much that I know about this poll’s sample breakdown or its crosstabs. The Franklin & Marshall College Poll (formerly the Keystone Poll) is a respected survey in Pennsylvania, but it’s hard to judge a poll like this without seeing its innards. Hopefully we’ll get some more information on this one shortly. (UPDATE: Full polling memo available below the fold.)

Still, with three polls showing Barletta leading (albeit, two of them were Barletta internals) and no other polls to inform us otherwise, it’s getting increasingly difficult to give Kanjorski the benefit of the doubt here. He’s in serious trouble.

UPDATE: Perhaps sensing trouble, the DCCC releases a poll of their own. Grove Insight (9/14-15, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 48

Lou Barletta (R): 39

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Even those aren’t exactly rock-solid numbers, but they’re much better than anything else we’ve seen so far.

The Tarrance Group for Tom Rooney (9/7-8, likely voters):

Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 48

Tom Rooney (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Mahoney isn’t out of the woods yet — only 32% say he deserves re-election, compared to 41% who say that it’s time for someone new. Rooney, a former Chicago-area high school principal Pittsburgh Steelers heir, won’t be hurting for the resources he needs to make his case.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Anzalone Liszt for Travis Childers (9/7-10, likely voters, 6/8 in parens):

Travis Childers (D-inc): 51 (46)

Greg Davis (R): 39 (39)

Undecided: 10 (-)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The people can’t help but like Childers. His favorable/unfavorable rating is 55-24, while Greg Davis is still stuck in a special election hangover, with only a 40-32 favorable rating.

Anzalone has had a great track record with this race. Their polling correctly predicted a dead heat in early April, and private numbers also showed Childers with a slight lead heading into the final runoff in May. Despite Sarah Palin awakening a Zombie Republican Army across the nation, things are looking very good for Cold Chillin’ Travis this fall.

Boy, that special election sure was a lot of fun, wasn’t it?

Update: The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Michael Skelly (9/7-9, likely voters, 12/5-12/2007 in parens):

Michael Skelly (D): 37 (33)

John Culberson (R-inc): 44 (52)

Other: 6 (-)

Undecided: 13 (16)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

These are some nice numbers for Michael Skelly, whose summer ad campaign has clearly bought him some momentum against unaccomplished GOP Rep. John Culberson in this R+15.6 (but Dem-trending) suburban Houston district.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but we’re diggin’ this trend.

IL-10 (McLaughlin & Associates for Mark Kirk, 9/10-11, likely voters, 6/9 in parens):

Dan Seals (D): 29 (32)

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 51 (53)

Undecided: 21 (15)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

On its face, those are some un-sexy numbers for Dan Seals. However, the partisan breakdown of the poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I’ve seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity. Also importantly, Kirk has saturated the airwaves (broadcast, cable, and radio) with $650K worth of ads in the last month. The DCCC has just started to enter the action here, sending out mailers and airing ads immediately after this poll was conducted. Seals himself has just gone back up on the airwaves:

NJ-03 (McLaughlin & Associates for Chris Myers, 9/8-9, likely voters):

John Adler (D): 29

Chris Myers (R): 33

Undecided: 37

Barack Obama (D): 42

John McCain (R): 45

(MoE: ±5.7%)

This is a D+3.3 district in South Jersey that Kerry lost by two points in 2004. I’d be surprised if Obama fared as bad as this poll suggests, but this is also a district that’s not accustomed to electing Democrats to Congress. On the bright side, Adler maintains a ginormous financial edge over Myers, and the DCCC has already been making their presence felt in the district. Still, never take anything for granted.

PA-06 (Public Opinion Strategies for Jim Gerlach, 8/19-21, likely voters, 5/21 in parens):

Some Dude Bob Roggio (D): 28 (30)

Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 57 (56)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Yeah, I can’t say I have much in the way of positive spin to offer here. Roggio’s name ID has jumped a whopping 5 points since May — all the way up to 10%!

The Kitchens Group for Alan Grayson (9/3-6, likely voters):

Alan Grayson (D): 44

Ric Keller (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ± 4.4%)

These are some great numbers for attorney Alan Grayson, who was recently added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. Keller hasn’t been exhibiting a lot of strength as of late — he recently held back a poorly-funded primary challenge by only a 53-47 margin, and demographic trends in the Orlando area have contributed to Democrats slicing the GOP’s voter registration advantage from 14K in 2006 to 2K this summer.

This is an R+3 district that Bush won twice — by 8 points in 2000, and 10 points in 2004. But the district has seen an influx of Puerto Rican voters who may be tipping the scales in the other direction. The poll also shows Obama and McCain tied at 44% in the district.

This race will be one to watch, for sure. The full polling memo is available below the fold.