Lycoming College (10/19-23, likely voters, 9/21-25 in parentheses):
Chris Carney (D-inc): 50 (46)
Chris Hackett (R): 35 (36)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
Holding a seat in an R+8 district that we picked up mostly because the incumbent was accused of choking his mistress shouldn’t be this easy. Chris Carney pushes his lead in this race to 15 points, up from 10 in last month’s Lycoming poll.
In fact, with the exception of a SurveyUSA poll in August that had the race within 4, nobody has seen this as a close race. We might not be so lucky in 2010 in terms of having the wind at our backs, but if Carney can hold on until 2012, he can probably be rewarded with a much safer district (like the older configuration of the 10th, which contained Dem-heavy Scranton).