Lycoming College (10/19-23, likely voters, 9/21-25 in parentheses):
Chris Carney (D-inc): 50 (46)
Chris Hackett (R): 35 (36)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
Holding a seat in an R+8 district that we picked up mostly because the incumbent was accused of choking his mistress shouldn’t be this easy. Chris Carney pushes his lead in this race to 15 points, up from 10 in last month’s Lycoming poll.
In fact, with the exception of a SurveyUSA poll in August that had the race within 4, nobody has seen this as a close race. We might not be so lucky in 2010 in terms of having the wind at our backs, but if Carney can hold on until 2012, he can probably be rewarded with a much safer district (like the older configuration of the 10th, which contained Dem-heavy Scranton).
Ya, he’s angered me with a few of his votes, but he does what he has to in order to survive. I was sure he would be one of those on-term wonders. If he survives 2010 he should get a more favorable district.
Ya, the numbers sound like garbage to me too.
http://www.unh.edu/survey-cent…
He’ll the be the new Tim Holden. Pennsylvania might have some bass-ackwards representation if Kanjorski and Murtha lose.
in this district idea. My only question is, would this make this seat Dem enough so that we dont end up with an R+0 seat (Barletta) and a R+5 seat with Carney. I’d rather have the D+5 and R+8 and just let Carney hold it til whenever. We can win back Barletta’s seat. It will be priority numero uno next cycle, guaranteed.
If Carney gets a more Democratic district and continues voting the conservative position, I can see fired-up activists lining him up in their sights.