After reading this entry http://www.fivethirtyeight.com… by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight about dividing Texas up into 5 states I became interested in other possibilities. After all, as the second most populous state in the nation there is certainly enough people to make several decently sized states. To pay homage to Nate Silver for the idea I decided to keep a few of the states names, one of which is almost identical to what he did since it was so awesome. Using Daves redistricting application this is my vision of Texas. A few major differences between the 538 version and my version is that I have no problem splitting up metropolitan areas.
Plainland
The plains of west Texas are conservative. So conservative that Plainland would be the most conservative state in the United States giving Barack Obama a mere 24% of the vote to John McCain’s 75%. If you are not familiar with Texas do not let the geographic size fool you, it is the least populated of the new states. If a Liberal, Progressive or Democrat gets off on getting crushed in elections and wants to put on a token campaign Plainland is the place.
Population: 2,547,860
Demographics: 71% White, 4% Black, 23% Hispanic, 2% Asian
2008 Vote: McCain 75% Obama 24% Other 1%
Major Cities: Lubbock, Amarillo, Witchita Falls
Congressional Seats: 3
East Texas
East Texas is slightly more populated that Plainland. The small population increase may be enough to give East Texas an additional congressional seat. The partisan difference between Plainland and East Texas is minimal. Giving Barack Obama 29% of the vote compared to John McCain’s 70%. Don’t expect much love for Liberals, Progressives or Democrats here since Plainland would be the second most conservative state in the United States based on 2008 Presidential Election results. East Texas expands down into the greater Houston Metro area and is home, like Plainland, to several of the lesser populated DFW Metro area counties.
Population: 2,775,191
Demographics: 75% White, 13% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian
2008 Vote: McCain 70% Obama 29%, Other 1%
Major Cities: Tyler, Longview, College Station-Byran
Congressional Seats: 4
Trinity
Names after the trio of major cities which comprise the majority of the states population, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. The four county conglomeration comprises the overwhelming majority of the population with the most of the remainder along I-35 running south including the cities of Waco, Killeen-Temple, Georgetown and Round Rock. Dallas and Fort Worth would run the show and I suspect a death match of monumental proportions would ensue to see who gets the title of “State Capitol.” At last we have a state where there is a county which voted for Barack Obama. Dallas County gave Barack Obama a respectable 57% of the vote in 2008, also Dallas County has by itself has a population roughly equal to Plainland. However in Trinity Dallas County was the only county to vote for Obama. Based on the 2008 results Trinity would essentially be a smaller version of old Texas mirroring the 55%-44% McCain-Obama results. Given the large population Trinity would be home to 11 congressional seats.
Population: 7,620,736
Demographics: 62% White, 13% Black, 20% Hispanic, 5% Asian
2008 Vote: McCain 55% Obama 44%, Other 1%
Major Cities: Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Waco
Congressional Seats: 11
Gulf Land
With a population of 9,142,795 Gulfland is the most populous of the new states. Austin would remain as the state Capital and the largest city is Houston. Barack Obama would have won Gulf Land in by a slim 3% margin, roughly 73,000 votes. As a slightly GOP leaning swing state Democrats would have to rely on serious get out the vote efforts in Travis, Harris and Hidalgo Counties to pull off wins. One item I have neglected to speak about up to this point is demographics. As seen in Plainland and East Texas they are rather bland, very white, Trinity is a bit more diverse. However Gulfland would join the rank of majority-minority states at 44% white, 38% hispanic, 13% black and 5% asian.
Population: 9,142,795
Demographics: 44% White, 13% Black, 38% Hispanic, 5% Asian
2008 Vote: Obama 51% McCain 48% Other 1%
Major Cities: Houston, Austin, Corpus Christi, McAllen-Edinburg
Congressional Seats: 13
El Norte
This would be a Democratic strong hold. Obama would have won El Norte with a 13% margin, larger than Pennsylvania. The cities of San Antonio and El Paso bring the majority of the population here. However El Norte is not that populous, in fact it’s population is only about half a million larger than Plainland. However that may be enough to give El Norte 5 seats.
Population: 3,155,854
Demographics: 28% White, 5% Black, 64% Hispanic, 4% Asian
2008 Vote: Obama 56% McCain 43% Other 1%
Major Cities: San Antonio, El Paso
Congressional Seats: 4 or 5
The congressional seat estimates were done in an incredibly rough manner.
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